香港交易及結算所有限公司、香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）及香港中央結算有限公司 （「香港結算」）對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表 示不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 本公告不會直接或間接於或向美國（包括美國的領土及屬地、美國任何州以及哥倫比亞特區或 任何其他法律禁止此類發佈的司法管轄區內）發佈、刊發或派發。本公告並不構成亦不屬於在 美國境內或於任何其他司法管轄區購買或認購證券的任何要約或招攬的一部分。本公告所述證 券並無亦不會根據《1933年美國證券法》（經不時修訂）（「美國證券法」）或美國任何州或其他司 法管轄區的證券法登記。證券不得在美國境內提呈發售、出售、質押或以其他方式轉讓，惟根 據美國證券法的登記規定及任何適用州證券法獲豁免者除外，或除非符合美國證券法項下的S 規例，否則不得於美國境外提呈發售、出售、質押或以其他方式轉讓。證券不會在美國公開發 售。 本公告僅作說明用途，並不構成收購、購買或認購任何證券的邀請或要約。本公告並非招股章 程。有意投資者於決定是否投資於發售股份前應閱覽招股章程，以獲得有關下文所述 ...

Core Insights - The adjustment of Hong Kong Stock Connect (港股通) for the first batch of 2026 has been finalized, indicating a structural change in the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds playing a significant role in influencing stock liquidity and valuations [1] Group 1: Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria - The current inclusion threshold for Hong Kong Stock Connect has risen to 9.317 billion, while the exclusion threshold stands at 6.05 billion [2] - A total of 44 companies meet the inclusion criteria, while 24 companies face the risk of exclusion due to insufficient market capitalization [2][7] - Market capitalization and liquidity are the core indicators determining inclusion or exclusion [2] Group 2: Companies Meeting Inclusion Criteria - Among the 44 companies eligible for inclusion, the average market capitalization is 14.377 billion, with a median of 12.613 billion, indicating overall high quality [2] - The types of inclusion include 40 companies for standard inclusion, 2 for A+H inclusion, and 2 for dual-class share inclusion [2] Group 3: Companies Facing Exclusion Risk - The 24 companies at risk of exclusion have an average market capitalization of only 5.094 billion, all below the 6.05 billion threshold [7] - Notable companies facing exclusion include Youbao Online and Haotian International Construction [7] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Adjustment Mechanism - The adjustment of Hong Kong Stock Connect is based on a complex system that considers market capitalization, liquidity, and market structure [7] - The market capitalization threshold is dynamically adjusted based on the market capitalization distribution of the Hang Seng Composite Index [8] - The liquidity requirement is assessed through the trading volume turnover ratio, which varies based on the listing duration of the companies [10] Group 5: Adjustment Frequency and Fast Inclusion Mechanism - Adjustments to Hong Kong Stock Connect occur four times a year, with two major adjustments in March and September, and two minor adjustments in June and December [11] - New stocks can be included through a fast-track mechanism, with specific criteria for quarterly and special fast inclusion [12]

Group 1 - Approximately 8 steel mills adjusted their construction material ex-factory prices today, with Donghua in North China reducing wire rod prices by 5 yuan/ton, while Meijin in North China increased rebar, wire rod, and round bar prices by 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the spot price for wire rod from Zhongtian in Hangzhou is 3580 yuan/ton, and from Yonggang is 3550 yuan/ton, with the futures market closing at 3600.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.66% increase [2] - National total inventory of construction materials is 7.237 million tons, a decrease of 171,900 tons from the previous week, while the apparent demand increased by 166,700 tons to 4.6747 million tons [3] Group 2 - Recent commodity market trends have positively influenced steel prices; however, demand is gradually weakening, and export expectations may tighten, leading to a volatile price trend for steel [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations due to production adjustments and seasonal demand changes, with potential impacts on pricing and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Shanxi Jianlong's 850mm hot-rolled steel line has begun maintenance on December 29, with a planned downtime of 36 days, expected to reduce daily hot-rolled steel output by 0.5 million tons [1]. - The hot-rolled steel inventory has significantly decreased, primarily due to production cuts, although there are concerns that demand may decline more sharply than production reductions [2]. Group 2: Market Prices - On December 31, the market price for hot-rolled coils in Tangshan dropped by 10, with mainstream prices for 4.75-11.75*1500*C hot coils ranging from 3170 to 3190, and manganese coils priced between 3290 and 3310 [1]. Group 3: Futures Market - As of December 30, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 1.1351 million long positions and 1.0915 million short positions in hot-rolled futures, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04, with a net position decrease of 0.0436 million contracts compared to the previous day [1]. Group 4: Analyst Insights - Nanhua Futures notes that while hot-rolled steel consumption has improved month-on-month, export controls may affect the sustainability of demand, and seasonal slowdowns are impacting end-user demand [2]. - Zhengxin Futures indicates that while policy expectations are supporting the market, the recovery in blast furnace capacity utilization and seasonal demand slowdown are weakening the supply-demand structure, suggesting that prices may have room for adjustment [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Q3 US GDP exceeded expectations with a 4.3% growth, and the job market showed resilience, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but November economic data indicated weak domestic demand, still needing policy support. Attention should be paid to domestic PMI data and Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair [2]. - The breakthrough of the RMB against the US dollar at the 7.00 mark may end the low - volatility forex market. The RMB is likely to end the year stably, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - Short - term stock indices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed. Bonds are not pessimistic in the medium - term. The container shipping European line futures are expected to be volatile, with the near - term contract range - bound and the far - term contract under pressure [6][8][11]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are recommended to be held lightly during the holiday. Gold and silver are expected to be weak in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper is recommended to be observed more and traded less before the holiday. Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, while alumina and cast aluminum alloy have their own characteristics [15][18][21]. - Zinc has limited upside space. Nickel - stainless steel is driven by supply reduction expectations and demand improvement, but it is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday. Tin has rebounded from oversold conditions and is expected to be volatile. Carbonate lithium has long - term value support and is recommended to be bought on dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are gradually rising, and long positions can be considered on dips [25][26][29]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. Steel products are expected to be range - bound, with iron ore oscillating, coking coal and coke facing uncertain supply, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese being volatile and bullish in the short - term [34][36][41]. - Pulp and offset paper can be observed first, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly. Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level. LPG is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term. PTA - PX has a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. MEG - bottle chips are under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized. Methanol can be bought at a low level [45][49][58]. - PP and PE are expected to be bottom - oscillating. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be bullish and oscillating. Fuel oil has weak cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil has stable cracking. Urea can be bought in the far - month contract. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are affected by supply and demand and market sentiment [63][66][73]. - Logs can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used. Propylene is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [79][80]. - For agricultural products, pigs' long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail. Oilseeds are strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. Oils are widely oscillating under supply pressure. Cotton may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar maintains a balance. Eggs are generally bearish. Apples are expected to be oscillating. Red dates are expected to be range - bound at a low level [84][85][90] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Central rural work conference focuses on agricultural technology; 2026 national subsidy plan is released; Fed meeting minutes show divided views on rate cuts; Trump may sue the current Fed chair and will announce the next nominee in January [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US economy is strong, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but domestic demand is weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB broke through the 7.00 mark, and it is expected to end the year stably. Attention should be paid to exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices were volatile and bullish last trading day. Policy signals are positive, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed [6][7]. - **Bonds**: The bond market was range - bound on Tuesday. The mid - term view on bonds is not pessimistic, and long positions can be held during the holiday [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures market closed down yesterday. The market is concerned about the sustainability of price increases, and the near - term contract is range - bound while the far - term contract is under pressure [9][11]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Platinum rose and palladium oscillated last night. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to hold lightly during the holiday [14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: Gold oscillated and silver rose. The short - term view is weak, and the long - term view is bullish. It is recommended to reduce long positions or stay out of the market during the holiday [16][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose last night. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe more and trade less before the holiday [19][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, alumina is expected to be range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the impact of related varieties [22][23]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were bullish last trading day. The upside space is limited, and it is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short - term [25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose yesterday. The supply is expected to shrink in 2026, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday [25][26]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded from oversold conditions last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rose yesterday. The long - term value is supported, and it is recommended to buy on dips [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose yesterday. The industrial silicon market is in a supply - demand weak state, and polysilicon prices are showing signs of warming. Long positions can be considered on dips [30][32]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [33][34]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products oscillated yesterday. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are expected to be range - bound [35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices followed other metals up and down. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices are expected to be range - bound [37][38]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coal and coke prices opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are facing uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery in January [39][40]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Ferroalloys were bullish and oscillating yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating in the short - term, but the upside space may be limited [41][42]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures rebounded yesterday, and offset paper futures rose. The market is still neutral, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly [44][46]. - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures closed down yesterday. OPEC+ is expected to continue to suspend the production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level [47][49]. - **LPG**: LPG prices rose yesterday. It is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term [50][51]. - **PTA - PX**: PX supply is expected to remain high, and PTA supply is uncertain. PTA processing fees are expected to rise, but the space is limited. PX is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: MEG supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. It is under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized [56][58]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose sharply. It is recommended to buy at a low level [59][60]. - **PP**: PP prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the scale of plant maintenance in January [61][63]. - **PE**: PE prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with supply pressure relieved and demand weakening [64][66]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating, but high - buying is not recommended [67][69]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices closed at 2473 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is abundant, and the cracking is weak [70]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at 2977 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is improving, and the cracking is stable [71][72]. - **Urea**: Urea prices closed at 1756 yesterday. It is recommended to buy in the far - month contract [72][73]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda prices rose yesterday. Soda ash is affected by new capacity and demand; glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory; caustic soda is affected by market sentiment and downstream demand [73][76]. - **Logs**: Log prices closed at 776 yesterday. It can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used [77][79]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices rose yesterday. The long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The external market was weak, and the domestic near - month market was strong. It is recommended to try a 3 - 5 positive spread lightly [85][86]. - **Oils**: International oils are under supply pressure, and domestic oils are oscillating. Palm oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong, and soybean oil is weak [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Cotton futures prices were mixed. The short - term may correct, and the long - term may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [89][90]. - **Sugar**: Sugar futures prices were mixed. The short - term upward pressure is increasing [91][93]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices fell yesterday. It is generally bearish in the long - term, and long positions can be held lightly for a rebound [94]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be oscillating, and long positions can be bought on dips [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: Red date futures prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [97][98].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of financial support and technological advancements in the agricultural sector, particularly in Heilongjiang, is enhancing grain collection efficiency and ensuring food security through a comprehensive financial support system for the entire agricultural supply chain [1][2][9]. Financial Support for Agricultural Supply Chain - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Heilongjiang is guiding banks to provide precise financial support for rice procurement, ensuring timely funding during the harvest season, which has led to an increase in agricultural loans from 929.61 billion yuan at the beginning of 2023 to 1,029.43 billion yuan by the end of November 2025 [1]. - Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) in Heilongjiang maintains a stable loan scale of around 400 billion yuan, supporting the entire grain supply chain and introducing innovative loan models like "Value Preservation Loan" and "Supply Chain Loan" [2]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) is implementing a "5+7" service action plan to support key agricultural industries, with a loan balance exceeding 35 billion yuan, focusing on brand agriculture and innovative credit models [3]. Risk Management in Agricultural Finance - Financial institutions are increasingly focusing on risk management as they enhance support for agricultural entities, addressing the transmission of agricultural risks to financial operations [6]. - The "Insurance + Futures" model has been explored since 2016 to mitigate risks associated with agricultural price fluctuations, benefiting numerous farmers and stabilizing income [7]. - Sunshine Agricultural Mutual Insurance Company has provided comprehensive cost insurance for major crops, covering 47.03 million acres and offering risk protection of 43.73 billion yuan, significantly increasing the coverage compared to previous models [8]. Modern Agricultural Financial Ecosystem - Heilongjiang's approach to building a modern agricultural financial service ecosystem represents a significant structural reform in financial supply, enhancing the resilience of the grain industry against various shocks [9].

南华期货油料产业周报 ——近月通关延迟偏强，远月到港压力偏弱 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前豆粕盘面交易重点在于：对于进口大豆，近月现实压力可能会持续压制盘面，但近期传出港口大豆 通关延迟消息，使得油料整体开启反弹。对于进口大豆，买船成本方面看，巴西升贴水在外盘走弱后保持坚 挺，总体支撑国内买船成本。量级方面看，美豆目前只能通过储备买船进口，商业买船继续以采购巴西船期 为主，但由于榨利表现一般，整体买船情绪较前期有所降低，故目前12月预估到港750万吨，1月600万吨，2 月500万吨左右。仅从到港量来看，在明年一季度同比往年或存在一定供应缺口，但目前国内开启采购美豆窗 口后，国家或将以轮储形式对远月供应添加增量。所以总的来看，近期弱现实依旧是压制盘面反弹高度的主 要因素，但阶段性供应缺口或延迟到港问题将影响国内进口大豆整体供应节奏，使得盘面出现阶段性反弹。 对于国内豆粕，供应方面，全国进口大豆港口与油厂库存维持高位，豆粕延续季节性库 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the development of Hengdian, known as the "Oriental Hollywood," which has become the world's largest film shooting base, generating an annual output value exceeding 35 billion yuan [5][10]. - Hengdian Group, founded 50 years ago, has diversified into various sectors including film and tourism, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, with total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan and six listed companies under its umbrella [5][15][17]. - The founder, Xu Wenrong, and his son, Xu Yong'an, are described as low-profile billionaires, emphasizing that the wealth of Hengdian Group belongs to the collective rather than individuals [6][18]. Group 2 - Hengdian's film industry strategy includes offering free shooting locations to attract film crews, which has led to significant growth in related services such as accommodation and dining, with the film industry generating 15.7 billion yuan in 2020 alone [10][11]. - The Hengdian Film City is projected to receive 15.24 million visitors in 2023, with revenues of 2.638 billion yuan, and 13.93 million visitors in 2024, with revenues of 2.867 billion yuan [11][12]. - Hengdian Film's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.971 billion yuan, with nearly 90% coming from cinema operations, while film investment and production contribute 10.3% [12]. Group 3 - Hengdian Group's assets include a general airport and a water plant, with a total revenue of 94.2 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit of 3.124 billion yuan [17][18]. - The group has a unique corporate structure where ownership is held by community organizations, which has drawn interest from economists [19][20]. - The company is facing challenges in its magnetic materials sector, with market share declining to around 30%, and is adapting to the rise of short dramas in the film industry [24][25]. Group 4 - Hengdian Group is actively seeking transformation, with its photovoltaic sector achieving revenue of 11.47 billion yuan in 2025, a 43.6% increase, becoming a key business segment [25]. - The overall development of Hengdian has significantly improved local income levels, with residents' average annual income reaching 70,000 yuan [25].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report focuses on various financial and commodity markets, including macroeconomics, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and commodities [1][2][3] - The overseas market shows strong GDP growth in the US, while the domestic market emphasizes expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The end - of - year market is affected by factors such as low liquidity, holiday effects, and policy expectations [4] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to end the year stably after a temporary halt in its sharp rise. The focus is on the effect of exchange - rate - stabilizing policies [3][4] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on the previous trading day, down 13 basis points, and the mid - price was 7.0331, up 27 basis points [3] Group 3: Stocks - The stock index faces pressure to break through at high levels and is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum in the short term. After the New Year, there is a greater probability of a spring rally [4][5] - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.38 on the previous trading day, and the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly [4] Group 4: Bonds - The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term. Although the bond futures fell sharply on Monday, the view is to hold mid - term long positions and intervene in short - term long positions on dips [5][6] - The bond futures opened sharply lower on Monday and then fluctuated narrowly. The overnight funds were loose, but the cross - year funds were tight [5] Group 5: Commodities - Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices dropped significantly due to factors such as profit - taking, exchange risk - control measures, and pre - holiday risk aversion. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term risks are high [7][8][9] - Gold and silver prices also experienced a sharp decline. The short - term is weak, and the long - term is still optimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions or clear positions in the short term [10][11][12] Group 6: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices fell due to pre - holiday profit - taking. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend, and it is recommended to watch more and act less before the holiday [13][15] - Aluminum faces short - term adjustment pressure, while alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up performance [15][16] - Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, and tin are expected to fluctuate widely, and lithium carbonate is recommended to focus on long - term value and avoid short - term risks [17][20][21] Group 7: Commodities - Black Metals - Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with support from the cost side and pressure from weak demand [28][29] - Iron ore prices fluctuate with high supply and rigid demand balancing each other [30] - Coking coal and coke are facing a fourth - round price cut, and the future trend depends on supply and demand changes [31][33] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [34][35] Group 8: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices fell due to market sentiment, while offset paper prices rose due to cost support. It is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] - LPG has near - term support but is under pressure in the medium - term [41][42] - PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips face a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. It is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes and cost factors [43][45][48] - Methanol is recommended to buy at low prices, while PP, PE, pure benzene - styrene, and other products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [49][53][60] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [61][64][65] - Logs are expected to fluctuate without clear upward or downward drivers, and propylene is recommended to pay attention to marginal changes [68][69][70] Group 9: Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [72][73][74] - Oilseeds show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to try a long - short spread strategy with a light position [75][76] - Oils are expected to fluctuate, with palm oil being relatively strong in the sector [77][78] - Cotton prices may experience a short - term correction but have long - term upward potential [79][80] - Sugar prices face increasing upward pressure in the short term [81][82] - Eggs are in a situation of over - capacity in the long term, and it is recommended to participate in a long - position rebound with a light position [83] - Apples face short - term upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a retracement to go long [84][85] - Red dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to pre - holiday procurement [86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall soybean planting in Brazil and Argentina is progressing well, but attention should be paid to the rainfall in Argentina in the next two weeks [1][2][15][39] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Meteorological Situation - Brazil's national soybean sowing progress has reached 97.6%, and the crops are generally in good growth, gradually recovering from the negative impact of uneven rainfall in December [1][15] - In the central region, it has entered the vegetative growth stage, and the replanted areas in the east and south are at the historical average level [1][15] - In Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, continuous rainfall is conducive to most areas entering the reproductive growth stage and showing good yield potential [1][15] - In Goiás, the planting work is nearing completion, the rainfall has returned to normal, and the problems of soil moisture shortage and uneven growth have been alleviated [1][15] - In Minas Gerais, sowing is basically completed, but excessive rainfall in some areas has delayed the fertilization progress [1][16] - In Paraná, about one - third of the area has entered the grain - filling stage, and most crops are growing well [1][16] - In Rio Grande do Sul, effective precipitation has alleviated the previous soil moisture shortage and created favorable conditions for the germination of areas sown in early December [1][16] 3.2 Argentina's Meteorological Situation - Argentina's sowing progress has increased by 8.2% week - on - week to 75.5%, with a good rate of 99% and a water sufficiency rate of 96% [2][39] - The first - sown soybeans have entered the late growth stage, and the planting in the northern Pampas agricultural area continues. Recent significant rainfall in the northeast is beneficial for soil moisture recovery [2][39] - About 10% of the planted area has entered the vegetative growth stage, mainly in the central and southern regions, with sufficient soil moisture [2][39] - The second - season soybean planting has completed 57.9%, and the central and southern regions are progressing well. However, there may be a decrease in rainfall in the next two weeks, so rainfall needs to be continuously monitored [2][39] 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - February: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - March: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [57] - April: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [57] - May: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [57] - June: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian exports [57] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - October: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - November - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [57] 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the beginning of sowing should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [65] - Blooming period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods, droughts, etc. [65] - Growth period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [65] - Harvest period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil moisture should be about 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [65]