Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].

南华商品指数：所有版块均下跌，贵金属板块领跌 王怡琳 南华商品指数市场数据 | 用于同 的 HD 1日 300 11 200 300 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 啊 | Sharpe | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | 96 | ARR | An. Vol | Batio | Points | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2528.48 | 2541.86 | -13.38 | -0.53% | -2.02% | 11.60% | -0.17 | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1523. ...

南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 11000-13500 | 12.64% | 21.34% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | | 库存管 理 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2601 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | 担心库存减值，但期货盘面没有合适价位入场，卖出看涨期权 | LH2601-C-1300 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 担心库存减值，又不想放弃后市可能出现猪价大涨的机会，买入虚值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand on the demand side is strong, with prices of core battery materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising. However, there may be a seasonal decline in downstream power cell production near December, and whether energy - storage cell production can offset this decline is a key factor. Overall, the subsequent price volatility of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the lithium carbonate futures price this week is predicted to show a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, with short - term correction risks [3][5]. - On the supply side, the arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight supply of lithium ore, and the release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the lithium salt market. The resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a crucial variable. If its resumption exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention. A significant reduction in warehouse receipts may lead to speculation in the market, directly affecting lithium carbonate prices [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Forecast and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.9%. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price this week will be in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, showing a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend [2][5]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,680 yuan (-1.76%) and a weekly increase of 6,980 yuan (8.07%). The trading volume is 1,487,724 lots (an 8.84% daily increase and a 64.85% weekly increase), and the open interest is 484,357 lots (a 13.96% daily decrease and an 8.00% weekly decrease). Other contract spreads and warehouse receipt data also show corresponding changes [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices**: Prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone have increased to varying degrees, with daily increases ranging from 0.60% to 6.13%. Lithium salt prices, including industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have also risen, with daily increases between 1.04% and 1.49% [23]. - **Cell Material Prices**: Prices of core cell materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have increased, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 2.48% daily [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract shows certain fluctuations. The average basis quotes of different brands for the LC2601 contract range from -1,600 to 0 yuan [33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,953 lots, a decrease of 217 lots from the previous day. Warehouse receipts at different warehouses also show corresponding changes [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate shows a certain trend, and the import profit of lithium carbonate also has corresponding changes over time [38]. - **Theoretical Delivery Profit**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate fluctuates within a certain range over time [40]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies for Lithium - Battery Enterprises - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 10% of far - month futures contracts, sell 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and use an option combination strategy (sell put options + buy call options) at a 20% ratio. For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 60% of the main futures contracts according to the procurement progress and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales profits can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 to lock in inventory value [2].

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 17 日 延续分化 本周主要观点： 商品近期的行情特征，大部分的品种都不具有趋势延续性， 可能会有几个局部品种走出趋势，但是，主流板块（黑色、能 化、农产品等）依然处于震荡格局。面对这种局面，可以考虑用 期权工具或者期货套利策略，避免用单边趋势策略（胜率偏 低）。本身市场波动率就不高，期权可以考虑卖出近月深度虚值 期权，以赚取时间价值。可以关注：一是持续背离结构的品种； 二是下跌增仓放量且抗跌的品种。近期面临移仓，跨月反套策略 要谨慎。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 延续分化 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 17 日 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场整体呈现震荡格局，K线基本上是阴线和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures has established a unique path for high-quality development by focusing on "serving the real economy" and "innovation-driven development" in the rapidly growing futures industry [1] Group 1: Business Model Innovation - Nanhua Futures has been deeply engaged in the futures industry for over 20 years, focusing on derivative business as its core, while actively promoting innovative business development [2] - The company has developed a comprehensive financial service platform that includes futures brokerage, asset management, basis trading, OTC derivatives, and public fund services, providing one-stop financial services for clients [2] - Nanhua Futures has helped enterprises transition from passive risk acceptance to proactive risk management, significantly aiding in the high-quality development of businesses [2] Group 2: Internationalization Efforts - Nanhua Futures has made significant strides in internationalization, recently becoming a clearing member of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICEU) in the UK, further expanding its global clearing layout [3] - The company is one of the earliest in the domestic futures industry to pursue internationalization, with a broad overseas financial service network covering Asia, North America, and Europe [3] - Nanhua Futures aims to support Chinese enterprises going global by leveraging its global exchange clearing advantages and enhancing service processes for physical delivery needs [3] Group 3: Social Responsibility and Brand Value - Nanhua Futures has actively engaged in rural revitalization efforts, establishing a leadership group to explore ways to leverage its industry characteristics for local economic development [4] - The company has implemented various forms of assistance, including education and consumption support, to contribute to rural revitalization and has seen significant results in underdeveloped areas [4] - Nanhua Futures has built a strong brand image through extensive media outreach, with over 4,587 content pieces published and 1.068 billion views in domestic media, enhancing its brand value [5] Group 4: Investor Education and Industry Responsibility - Nanhua Futures has committed to enhancing investor education through various channels, including lectures and live broadcasts, to help investors understand the futures market and legal regulations [6] - The company has developed original educational content that has received multiple awards, further solidifying its reputation in the industry [6] - Nanhua Futures' brand-building efforts have increased its attractiveness and influence within the market, contributing to a positive social image [6]

作为中国期货行业的领军企业，南华期货始终积极响应国家"一带一路"倡议，深耕国际化发展道路19 年，构建起由横华国际金融股份有限公司作为境外控股公司，下属10家一级子公司，5家二级子公司， 以期货衍生品交易、清算和服务为核心，覆盖香港、美国、新加坡、英国四个主要国际金融中心金融市 场的综合服务商。 未来，南华期货将持续深化全球清算布局，依托高效的清算体系和多元化的业务平台，全面提升跨境金 融服务能力，致力于为全球投资者提供安全、专业、便捷的一站式综合金融解决方案。 南华期货 美国时间2025年11月13日，南华期货境外全资孙公司Nanhua USA LLC获批成为 Nodal Clear清算会员， 具备 NodalExchange和Coinbase Derivatives 的清算资格，标志着南华期货国际化战略布局再进一步。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：南华期货） ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 11月14日晚间，南华期货发布公告称，美国时间2025年11月13日，公司境外全资孙公司 NanhuaUSALLC收到NodalClear，LLC（简称"NodalClear"）的通知，其获批成为NodalClear清算会员， 具备NodalExchange和CoinbaseDerivatives的清算资格。 ...

智通财经APP讯，南华期货(603093.SH)发布公告，美国时间2025年11月13日，公司境外全资孙公司 Nanhua USA LLC 收到Nodal Clear,LLC(简称"Nodal Clear")的通知，其获批成为Nodal Clear清算会员，具 备Nodal Exchange 和 Coinbase Derivatives的清算资格。 ...