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南华期货(603093)已举行香港上市聆讯,保荐人收到相关信函、但不构成正式的上市批准
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 06:29
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. is progressing with its application for a Hong Kong listing, with the listing hearing scheduled for November 20, 2025, by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing committee [1]. Group 1: Listing Progress - Nanhua Futures announced its application for a Hong Kong listing, with the listing hearing held on November 20, 2025 [1]. - The exclusive sponsor received a letter from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 21, 2025, indicating that the listing application has been reviewed, but this does not constitute formal approval [1]. - The company still requires final approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating uncertainty in the listing process [1]. Group 2: Company Ranking and Services - Nanhua Futures is recognized as a leading futures company in China, providing global financial services, including domestic futures brokerage, risk management, and wealth management [2]. - According to a Frost & Sullivan report, in 2024, Nanhua Futures ranked 8th among all futures companies in China by total revenue and 1st among non-financial institution-related futures companies [2]. - The company ranked 1st in overseas income among all futures companies in China in 2024 and 3rd in return on equity (ROE) among all 53 listed securities and futures companies [2].
聚石化学、豪尔赛被证监会立案;大金重工拿下超13亿元大单丨公告精选
Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Company Zhaoyi Innovation announced that several directors and senior management personnel plan to reduce their holdings by a total of 249,000 shares, with specific reductions from the vice chairman and general manager, as well as other vice presidents [1] - Company Super Aerospace announced a stock suspension due to its controlling shareholders planning a significant matter that may lead to a change in control [2] - Company Haosai is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [5] Group 2: Major Contracts and Projects - Company Dajin Heavy Industry's wholly-owned subsidiary signed a contract worth approximately 1.339 billion yuan for a European offshore wind farm project, which represents 35.41% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [3] - Company Ruifeng New Materials plans to increase capital by 200 million yuan in a related party to advance a lithium hexafluorophosphate project [6] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - Company Jushi Chemical received a notice from the CSRC regarding an investigation for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [4] - Company Huosai is also under investigation by the CSRC for similar reasons [5] Group 4: Investment and Acquisitions - Company Gao Neng Environment plans to acquire 45.2% equity in three mining companies [7] - Company Aerospace Electric intends to purchase 32% equity in Shenzhen Aerospace Electric Motor System Co., Ltd. through public bidding [8]
南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20251121
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 13:34
Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].
南华期货(603093.SH):香港联交所审议公司发行H股
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-11-21 11:37
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures is in the process of applying for the issuance of overseas listed shares (H-shares) and plans to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Committee held a hearing on November 20, 2025, to review the company's listing application [1] - The exclusive sponsor for the company's issuance and listing received a letter from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 21, 2025, indicating that the Listing Committee has reviewed the application [1] - The letter from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange does not constitute formal approval for the listing, and the Exchange retains the right to provide further comments on the company's application [1]
南华期货:香港联交所已审阅公司的上市申请
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 11:17
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures is in the process of applying for the issuance of overseas listed shares (H-shares) and plans to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Committee will hold a listing hearing on November 20, 2025, to review the company's application for issuance and listing [1] - The exclusive sponsor for the company's issuance and listing has received a letter from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 21, 2025, indicating that the Listing Committee has reviewed the company's application [1] - The letter from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange does not constitute formal approval for the listing, and the Exchange retains the right to provide further comments on the company's application [1]
南华期货(603093) - 南华期货股份有限公司关于香港联交所审议公司发行H股的公告
2025-11-21 11:15
证券代码:603093 证券简称:南华期货 公告编号:2025-067 南华期货股份有限公司 关于香港联交所审议公司发行 H 股的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")正在进行申请发行境外上市股 份(H 股)并在香港联合交易所有限公司(以下简称"香港联交所")主板上市 (以下简称"本次发行上市")的相关工作。香港联交所上市委员会于 2025 年 11 月 20 日举行上市聆讯,审议公司本次发行上市的申请。 公司本次发行上市的独家保荐人已于 2025 年 11 月 21 日收到香港联交所向 其发出的信函,其中指出香港联交所上市委员会已审阅公司的上市申请,但该信 函不构成正式的上市批准,香港联交所仍有对公司的上市申请提出进一步意见的 权力。 公司本次发行上市尚需取得香港证券及期货事务监察委员会和香港联交所 等相关监管机构、证券交易所的最终批准,该事项仍存在不确定性。公司将根据 该事项的进展情况依法及时履行信息披露义务,敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 南华期货股份有限公司董事会 ...
南华商品指数:所有版块均下跌,贵金属领跌
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.76% today. All sector indices declined, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the largest decline of -1.77% and the Nanhua Black Index having the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the theme indices, only the Building Materials Index rose by 0.11%, while the rest declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.46%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Starch Index had the largest increase of 1.58%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -8.04% [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Indices - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2502.56 today, down 19.21 points or -0.76% from yesterday. The annualized return was -0.99%, the annualized volatility was 11.59%, and the Sharpe ratio was -0.09 [3] - **Precious Metals Index**: The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 3456.21, down 23.43 points or -0.67% with an annualized return of -8.42% and an annualized volatility of 13.82% [3] - **Industrial Products Index**: The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) showed a decline, but specific data was not fully presented [3] - **Metal Index**: The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6404.75, down 41.93 points or -0.65% with an annualized return of 0.68% and an annualized volatility of 12.06% [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1733.12, down 19.68 points or -1.12% with an annualized return of 4.37% and an annualized volatility of 12.47% [3] - **Black Index**: The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2482.40, down 5.91 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -8.33% and an annualized volatility of 16.58% [3] - **Agricultural Products Index**: The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) had an annualized return of 9.76% [3] - **Mini - Composite Index**: The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1158.20, down 8.90 points or -0.76% with an annualized return of -1.09% [3] - **Energy Index**: The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 992.08, down 14.69 points or -1.46% with an annualized return of -2.22% and an annualized volatility of 20.36% [3] - **Petrochemical Index**: The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 875.55, down 7.83 points or -0.89% with an annualized return of -2.77% and an annualized volatility of 10.07% [3] - **Fine Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Fine Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 904.67, down 0.56% with an annualized return of -4.48% and an annualized volatility of 9.56% [3] - **Black Raw Materials Index**: The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1045.83, down 5.77 points or -0.55% with an annualized return of -0.54% and an annualized volatility of 15.66% [3] - **Building Materials Index**: The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 687.69, up 0.75 points or 0.11% with an annualized return of -2.58% and an annualized volatility of 11.47% [3] - **Oilseeds and Oils Index**: The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1233.00, down 2.94 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -1.39% and an annualized volatility of 11.70% [3] - **Economic Crops Index**: The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 906.22, down 0.44% with an annualized return of 0.62% and an annualized volatility of 7.44% [3] 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Increase or Decrease to Index Increase or Decrease - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (3.78%), Rebar (2.08%), etc.; negative contributors included Palm Oil (-11.35%), Cotton (-56.86%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Mini - Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (7.46%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-0.39%), Natural Rubber (-0.39%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included First - class Company (5.51%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-0.39%), PVC (-0.77%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (3.80%); negative contributors included Tin (-5.58%), Aluminum (-5.58%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Positive contributors included Pure Alkali (6.37%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-1.96%), Fuel Oil (-8.34%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (4.23%), Corn (4.76%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-5.78%), Cotton (-21.32%), etc [3] 3.3 Single - Variety Index Daily Increase or Decrease - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Pure Sand increased by 1.04%, Synthetic Ammonia decreased by 0.20%, etc [3] - **Black Sector**: Coal decreased by 1.15% [4] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Starch increased by 1.58%, Corn increased by 1.25%, while Live Pigs decreased by 0.79%, etc [6] - **Other**: Orange - like products decreased by -0.64%, Low - magnetic fuel oil decreased by -1.94% [9]
南华期货早评-20251121
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 03:03
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data and the impact on the real economy. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, and the market may focus on this. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate led to a decline in the US dollar index. The domestic LPR remained unchanged, having a neutral impact on the exchange rate. The RMB may gain some appreciation support later [4]. - The US September non - farm payroll report failed to resolve the Fed's internal differences. The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant [5]. - For bonds, real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. - In the container shipping market, the weak spot market and the expected price increase in December are in a game. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can focus on spread reversal opportunities [9][11]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - For copper, the 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. - For steel products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - For LPG, the domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - For PTA - PX, the PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - For methanol, the 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - For PP, it is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - For PE, the supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September. The domestic LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined. The unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate affected the exchange rate, and the RMB may gain appreciation support later [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant due to the unclear Fed's rate - cut decision and other factors [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: Real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - **Copper**: The 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: In the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - **LPG**: The domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - **PP**: It is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - **PE**: The supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. Others - **Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: They are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71].
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251120
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate more widely in the future, with the futures price likely to "swing widely" between 82,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton this week, and short - term correction risks should be watched out for [3][5] - The lithium ore supply may be alleviated as the expected arrival of lithium concentrate this month is high, and the resumption of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable affecting supply. The current demand is strong, but there are seasonal fluctuations in downstream production, and whether the production of energy - storage cells can make up for the decline in power cells is the focus [3] - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention, as a significant reduction in warehouse receipts may cause market speculation and directly impact the price of lithium carbonate [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 48.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 84.1% [2] - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan (-0.32%) daily and up 11,140 yuan (12.68%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,595,646 lots, down 171,782 lots (-9.72%) daily and up 489,635 lots (44.27%) weekly. The open interest is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots (-4.68%) daily and down 56,912 lots (-10.61%) weekly [8] - **Spread Data**: LC2601 - LC2603 is -180 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan (-100.00%) daily and down 660 yuan (-137.50%) weekly; LC2601 - LC2605 is -1,140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (-1.72%) daily and up 900 yuan (375.00%) weekly; LC2603 - LC2605 is -960 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (-17.24%) daily and up 240 yuan (33.33%) weekly [8] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, up 150 lots (0.56%) daily and down 592 lots (-2.15%) weekly [8] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt Prices**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.77%) daily; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.70%) daily [24] - **Price Difference Data**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan (2.13%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 10,720 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (9.16%) daily and up 2,550 yuan (31.21%) weekly [28] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main lithium carbonate contract and the brand - based basis of different companies are provided. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is -300 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 0 yuan/ton [34] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, an increase of 150 lots from yesterday. The warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai increased by 150 lots, while those of Shanghai State Reserve and Xiamen Jianyida (Jianfa Shanghai) decreased [36][37] 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium concentrate and lithium mica is presented, as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, with fluctuations in different time periods [38][40] 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, strategies include buying 10% of far - month futures contracts, selling 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and using an option combination strategy (selling put options + buying call options) with a 20% ratio. For those with product price correlation, 60% of the main futures contracts should be sold according to the procurement progress, and a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio is recommended [2] - **Sales Management**: To prevent price drops and profit reduction, enterprises should sell futures contracts when obtaining lithium ore. For example, sell 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 and use a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio [2] - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory should short futures contracts according to inventory, such as selling 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 [2]
南华贵金属日报:黄金、白银:降息预期降温,关注晚间9月非农补发-20251120
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 04:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].