1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially reduce the growth rate of ore - heating furnace start - up rates. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also below expectations. Overall, the overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, reducing supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The organic silicon industry's start - up rate is slowing, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable and is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months as enterprise profit conditions improve and production schedules increase in October [4]. - Market Outlook - The supply - side incremental space is expected to narrow. Key signals to watch are whether the supply - side start - up rate enters a downward channel and whether the downstream polysilicon demand improves. If both conditions are met, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are crucial variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Core Influencing Factors - The core factors determining the polysilicon futures price are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices on the demand side, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected power prices [9]. - Market Outlook - The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. The high volatility of polysilicon futures implies high risks, and investors are advised to be cautious [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8505 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 0.70%) and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan (- 0.18%). The trading volume is 188,642 lots, down 1,690 lots (- 0.89%) daily and 98,635 lots (- 34.33%) weekly. The open interest is 107,518 lots, down 6,718 lots (- 5.88%) daily and 55,156 lots (- 33.91%) weekly [12][13]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 100 yuan (- 1.13%) weekly. The price of 553 in Xinjiang is also 8750 yuan/ton, with the same daily and weekly changes. The prices of different grades and regions show various trends, and the price of downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, etc., also have corresponding changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48,851 lots, down 452 lots (- 0.79%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different delivery warehouses have different changes, such as a 0.3 - million - ton decrease in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [35]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 375 yuan (0.74%) and a weekly increase of 725 yuan (1.45%). The trading volume is 121,870 lots, down 28,902 lots (- 19.17%) daily and 175,833 lots (- 59.06%) weekly. The open interest is 52,237 lots, down 4,569 lots (- 8.04%) daily and 29,151 lots (- 35.82%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon, including N - type re - feeding material, N - type dense material, etc., shows different degrees of increase. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have corresponding changes [45]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 1975 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (- 15.96%) daily and 685 yuan (- 25.75%) weekly. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9290 lots, an increase of 140 lots compared to the previous day [55].

Core Insights - The diversified financial sector experienced a 1.8% increase on October 21, with Ruida Futures leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Market Performance - Ruida Futures (002961) saw a closing price of 22.48, with a significant increase of 9.98% and a trading volume of 181,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 401 million yuan [1] - Nanhua Futures (603093) closed at 20.97, up 3.81%, with a trading volume of 156,400 shares [1] - Yuexiu Capital (000987) closed at 8.41, up 3.57%, with a trading volume of 881,100 shares [1] - Other notable performers included Electric Current Communication (600830) at 68.6 (+2.70%) and Jiuding Investment (600053) at 17.07 (+2.52%) [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net inflow of 292 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 169 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 460 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Ruida Futures had a net inflow of 113 million yuan from institutional investors, but faced outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3] - Yuexiu Capital experienced a net inflow of 68.89 million yuan from institutional investors, with outflows from speculative and retail investors [3] - Zhongyou Capital (000617) had a net inflow of 67.33 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 68.17 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures (603093) has shown a significant increase in stock price, closing at 20.97 yuan with a rise of 3.81% on October 21, 2025, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a main revenue of 11.01 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 58.27% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.31 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a main revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, down 65.54% year-on-year, while the net profit for the same period was 1.46 billion yuan, up 0.66% year-on-year [3]. - The company has a debt ratio of 90.84% and reported investment income of 1.3 billion yuan [3]. Market Position - Nanhua Futures has a total market value of 12.793 billion yuan, ranking 13th in the diversified financial industry [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stands at 27.66, while the industry average is -38.71, placing it 11th in the industry [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for Nanhua Futures is 5.51%, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.8%, ranking 3rd in the industry [3]. Investment Sentiment - Over the past 90 days, four institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with one buy rating and three hold ratings, indicating a generally positive outlook [4]. - The average target price set by institutions for the stock is 25.16 yuan [4]. Capital Flow - On October 21, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 31.57 million yuan, accounting for 9.6% of the total transaction amount [1][2]. - Retail investors showed a net outflow of 18.45 million yuan, representing 5.61% of the total transaction amount [1][2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron "Iron Ore Risk Management Report" released on October 20, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore market is operating weakly under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Sino - US trade friction has curbed market risk appetite, and the fundamentals show a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand". Although the short - term price valuation is low due to the widening basis, the upward drive is insufficient. The future key variables lie in policy signals [3]. Summary by Directory Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 760 - 820, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.80% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with current iron ore inventory worried about price drops, strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 800 - 810 and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 760 and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790) with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: Sino - US trade friction has led to a significant decline in market risk preference, causing a collective correction in industrial product prices [3]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: Overseas shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories show super - seasonal accumulation. The inventory of 45 ports in the country has increased to around 143 million tons, and the supply remains loose [3]. - **Demand**: Although the molten iron output is still above 2.4 million tons per day, steel mill profits have shrunk to the break - even point. Weak finished product sales and inventory pressure are transmitted to the raw material end, suppressing iron ore procurement willingness [3]. Price Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 767, 747.5, and 727.5 respectively, with no daily change and weekly decreases of 15, 13.5, and 12 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 bases on October 21, 2025, were 11, 30.5, and 50.5 respectively, with daily increases of 4, 2.5, and 1 respectively and weekly increases of 19.5, 15.5, and 13.5 respectively [5][7]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 21, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 777, 901, and 700 respectively, with daily changes of - 1, 0, and - 5 respectively and weekly decreases of 19, 25, and 20 respectively [7]. - **Platts Index**: On October 17, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 94.75, 105.3, and 118.9 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15, 0.65, and 0.65 respectively and weekly decreases of 1.1, 2.1, and 2.4 respectively [8]. Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption**: The average daily molten iron output on October 17, 2025, was 240.95, a weekly decrease of 0.59 and a monthly decrease of 0.07 [14]. - **Transportation and Inventory**: - **45 - Port Data**: The 45 - port dredging volume on October 17, 2025, was 315.72, a weekly decrease of 11.28 and a monthly decrease of 15.56. The 45 - port inventory was 142.7827 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.5377 million tons and a monthly increase of 4.288 million tons [14]. - **Steel Mill Data**: The inventory of 247 steel mills on October 17, 2025, was 89.8273 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.6346 million tons and a monthly decrease of 3.267 million tons. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.21, a weekly decrease of 0.03 and a monthly decrease of 1.09 [14]. - **Global and Regional Shipments**: The global shipment volume on October 17, 2025, was 3333.5, a weekly increase of 126 and a monthly increase of 8.7. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2740, a weekly increase of 73.5 and a monthly increase of 46.7 [14]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: - The current molten iron output, although slightly decreased month - on - month, is still growing year - on - year and at a seasonal high, supporting the basic demand for iron ore [3]. - The current iron ore basis has increased, and the valuation is relatively low [3]. - The expectation of incremental stimulus policies has risen under the background of weak demand [3]. - **Negative Factors**: - Sino - US trade friction has led to a significant decline in market risk preference [6]. - Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories show super - seasonal accumulation [6]. - Hot - rolled coil inventories continue to accumulate beyond the season, and overall demand momentum is insufficient [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Macro - China's Q3 GDP growth slowed, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The GDP deflator showed a marginal rebound. The production side remained resilient in September, while the demand side declined. Fiscal measures are expected to support the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair of domestic demand [1][2]. - The US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited due to market pre - pricing [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Despite the US government shutdown and delayed economic data, the US dollar index has not fallen significantly. The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The USD/RMB spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock market has been oscillating, and the trading volume has shrunk. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound last week. The slowdown in GDP growth, weak investment and consumption, and the downward trend in the real estate market support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to influence the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The spot index has rebounded, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [8][9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is facing a directional choice, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and a bearish view is maintained before large - scale production cuts [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the September economic data showed different trends in production and demand. The LPR remained unchanged, and there were developments in Sino - US trade and international political situations [1]. - The US government shutdown and the expected Fed interest rate cut are important factors affecting the market [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. Sino - US trade negotiations and economic data are the focus [3]. - The central bank's policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable within a reasonable range [4]. Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. Important economic data, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fourth Plenary Session are influencing factors [6]. - The market is waiting for policy signals, and the trading volume is shrinking, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment [7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound. The GDP growth slowdown and other economic data support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to affect the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The futures market rose, and the spot index rebounded significantly. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally [9]. - The market is affected by multiple factors, and the futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper futures rose, and the inventory situation changed. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][15][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72].

Report Date - The report is dated October 20, 2025 [3] Index Performance Overall Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2515.75, down 0.24% (-6.15 points) from the previous close of 2521.90 [3] Sector Indexes - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) dropped 3.42% to 1577.33, the biggest decline among sectors [1][3] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) rose 1.28% to 1058.04, the largest gain among sectors [1][3] - The Nanhua Metals Index (NHMI) edged up 0.13% to 6357.97, the smallest gain among sectors [1][3] Theme Indexes - The Economic Crops Index led the gainers, rising 1.24% [1] - The Building Materials Index had the smallest gain, up 0.16% [1] - The Mini Composite Index had the largest decline, down 0.32% [1] - The Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest decline, down 0.17% [1] Single - Variety Indexes - The Pig Index was the top gainer, rising 4.16% [1] - The Silver Index was the biggest loser, down 4.14% [3] Contribution to Index Fluctuations Nanhua Mini Composite Index - Positive contributors include Coke (8.17%), Crude Oil (3.63%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Rebar (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - Positive contributors include Coke (21.32%), Natural Rubber (6.89%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Iron Ore (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Composite Index - Positive contributors include Coke (46.28%), Natural Rubber (6.89%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Rebar (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Metals Index - Positive contributors include Coke (18.61%), Natural Rubber (3.40%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Iron Ore (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index - Positive contributors include Fuel Oil (3.56%), Palm Oil (1.51%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include PVC (-9.31%), Methanol (-1.65%), etc [3] Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - Positive contributors include Rapeseed Meal (9.14%), Crude Oil (8.39%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Glass (-4.73%), PTA (-1.91%), etc [3] Other Information - The calculation of the Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the spread at the time of contract roll - over, reflecting the real return of investing in the commodity system [8] - The contribution is calculated as the product of the change rate and the weight, and the calculation method for contribution is: a certain variety's daily change rate / Σ (each variety's daily change rate) [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to export policies, it will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term internal drive of the industry is weak, and both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is weak. The production cost of gas - based enterprises cannot support the price effectively. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new export quotas. Also, focus on the macro - sentiment [3]. - The trading logic for the near - term: Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the cheapest deliverable goods are still in Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread should be in a reverse arbitrage. Due to the expectation of autumn fertilizer for the 01 contract, it still has a premium [6]. - The trading expectation for the long - term: The domestic daily urea production fluctuated slightly between 195,000 - 201,000 tons around the holiday. After the shutdown of factories in regions such as Shanxi, the Northwest, and Inner Mongolia, the daily output dropped to around 195,000 tons, but the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the total inventory of urea enterprises was around 1.4 million tons, significantly increasing compared to before the holiday. Some urea factories had poor pre - sales before the holiday and urgently need to replenish new orders [11][21]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea's fundamental valuation is low, and it will accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter without export policy adjustment. The industry's internal drive is weak, and demand from compound fertilizer and industrial sectors is sluggish, leading to a weak medium - term trend. The cost of gas - based enterprises cannot support prices, and new export quotas need attention. Macro - events such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" time - node should be monitored [3]. - Near - term trading: The cheapest deliverable urea is in Henan and Shandong. The 01 contract's 1 - 5 spread should be in reverse arbitrage, and the 01 contract has a premium due to autumn fertilizer expectations [6]. - Long - term trading: Domestic urea daily production dropped to around 195,000 tons after factory shutdowns, and inventory increased after the holiday. Some factories need to replenish new orders [11]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **行情定位**: Urea will fluctuate weakly. The UR2601 contract will operate in the range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1,750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **基差、月差及对冲套利策略建议**: For the basis strategy, the 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to when the pre - holiday price cuts to receive orders increase. The 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. For the spread strategy, the upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1st, with the opening on October 15th and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The fourth quarter is the winter - storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves [17]. - **Negative information**: The daily production of the urea industry has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and even when it dropped to around 182,000 tons in late August and early September, it was difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. The continuous decline in prices has led to a lack of market confidence, and the market was sluggish in September. Without the support of export and macro - sentiment, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has declined [18][19]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On October 19th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng of the State Council agreed with the US to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held next week, and it is an important time - node for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic daily urea production dropped to around 195,000 tons after factory shutdowns, and the inventory increased after the holiday. Some factories need to replenish new orders. On the demand side, continuous rainfall in Shandong and Henan has postponed agricultural demand. Many compound fertilizer factories in the region have shut down, and the impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculations has weakened. Currently, the rigid demand is cautious in replenishing goods, and the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to stock up is poor [21]. - The current main contradiction is the weak domestic demand. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. Both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [22]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted price range for urea is 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [29]. - **Urea hedging strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short urea futures to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Also, buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and aiming to prevent price increases, buy urea futures at present, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton. Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Information on the seasonal production costs and profits of different urea production methods such as fixed - bed, natural - gas - based, and water - coal - slurry gasification is presented through various charts [32][33][35]. 4.2 Upstream Operating Rate Tracking - Information on the seasonal production profits, production costs, daily output, and capacity utilization rates of different urea production methods and in different regions is shown in multiple charts [41][42][43]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The seasonal inventory data of Chinese urea enterprises, ports, and in specific regions like Guangdong and Guangxi are presented in charts [47][48][49]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Information on the seasonal capacity utilization rates, inventory, production profits, and market prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine is shown in various charts [52][54][58]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The seasonal production and sales data of urea in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China are presented in charts [75][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent propylene 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The spot market, especially in Shandong, is affected by the start - up of some devices, leading to a loose supply. The decline in the price of propane in the outer market has caused the collapse of PDH costs, and with insufficient terminal demand, propylene/PP prices have followed suit. The propylene trend remains highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread fluctuates around 500 - 550 yuan/ton [2]. - In the near - term, due to the collapse of the cost side and the loose spot market, both the spot and the futures market have weakened. In the long - term, factors such as supply - side production expectations, PP terminal demand falling short of supply growth leading to inventory accumulation, and pressure from increased supply on the cost side, with the weakening of CP/FEI in the long - term, will affect the propylene market [4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the external supply has increased, and the gap between supply and demand in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP powder, granules, and propylene is still small, and the ability to absorb high - priced propylene is insufficient. Most other downstream products also have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. - The PDH cost has collapsed. The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The outer - market prices have weakened, with the current CP - calculated cost at 5,950 yuan/ton and the FEI - calculated cost at 5,800 yuan/ton [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the PL01 price range at 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to wait and see for now as the valuation is not high and the propane cost for PDH remains weak [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to be volatile. This week, the basis has widened, with both the spot and the futures market weakening, and the futures market being relatively weaker [17]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. The 02 contract has relatively low positions, and the calendar spread fluctuates randomly. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, reverse arbitrage at high prices is still considered [17]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. The spread between PP granules, powder, and propylene is around 340 yuan/ton. After the propylene spot price weakens, the spread has widened slightly. Consider widening the spread when the PP - PL spread is within 500 yuan/ton [18]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range for propylene is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1068 and a historical volatility percentage of 0.6551 over three years [21]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits. Sell call options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the spot price rises, the selling price can also be locked. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices. Sell put options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the propylene price drops, the spot purchase price can be locked [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The price difference between PP granules, powder, and propylene has widened from a low level, and the PP - end operating rate has increased. Geopolitical issues may still flare up repeatedly [23][24]. - **Negative Information**: The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The propane swap price has continued to fall after the holiday. Sino - US economic and trade issues may continue to fluctuate, causing significant disturbances to the cost side. The spot price has continued to decline, with the price in the Shandong region dropping by 230 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - From October 20 - 23, the Fourth Plenary Session will be held. On October 20, data such as LPR and third - quarter GDP will be released. On October 24, data such as US CPI and PMI will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract has continued its downward trend, with a slight decrease in the position. The net position of the main profitable seats has decreased, and there has been no significant change in the long - short list positions. The net short position of profitable seats has increased slightly, the net short position of foreign capital has decreased slightly, and the net short position of retail investors has decreased slightly. Technically, all cycles are in a downward trend, with the moving averages in a short - position arrangement. The decline on the hourly chart has slowed down slightly [25]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the propylene 01 basis is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton compared to last week. Both the spot and the futures market have declined, with the futures market being relatively weaker. The propylene 01 - 02 calendar spread is - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week. The overall trend is conducive to reverse arbitrage and remains volatile [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries is 547.82 yuan/ton (- 71.31 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries is 225.77 yuan/ton (- 23.42 yuan/ton). The cracking operating rate has slightly decreased with the profit [31]. - **Midstream Profit**: The Asian naphtha cracking profit is - $12/ton (+$27/ton), and the Asian propane cracking profit is $48/ton (+$35/ton). After the overseas propane price drops, the propane cracking profit has increased. The PDH profit based on FEI cost is 372 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and the PDH profit based on CP cost is 247 yuan/ton (- 235 yuan/ton), with the PDH profit shrinking from a high level [34]. - **Downstream Profit**: The price difference between PP拉丝, powder, and propylene is 340 yuan/ton (+ 160 yuan/ton and + 210 yuan/ton respectively). After the propylene price weakens, the price difference between PP and propylene has widened from a low level. The PO/SM profit of propylene oxide is 977 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 1,070 yuan/ton (+ 46 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin - method profit is 274 yuan/ton (- 7.5 yuan/ton). Recently, the profit of the chlorohydrin - method PO has improved, supporting the operating rate. The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,305 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with little overall change. The acrylic acid profit is + 672 yuan/ton (+ 88 yuan/ton), with improved profit. The butanol profit is - 207 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), currently in a loss state, and the subsequent operating - rate change should be monitored. The octanol profit is - 0.45 yuan/ton (+ 41 yuan/ton), slightly improved compared to last week, and the subsequent operating - rate change of major external - purchasing units should be monitored. The phenol - acetone profit is - 564 yuan/ton (- 85 yuan/ton), with little change and in a volatile state [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The Sino - Korean propylene price difference has shown little recent fluctuation, and imports are expected to remain at a high level [48]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market have decreased. The supply reduction comes from the maintenance of devices such as Yulong and Jingbo, and the demand reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of the PP granule end. The supply - demand gap is expected to become looser again in late October as the maintenance devices resume operation [50]. 5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection This week, there have been both start - ups and shutdowns. The overall propylene operating rate is 74.44% (- 0.99%), still at a high level. The supply reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of steam cracking at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong, PDH at Wanda Tianhong and Tianjin Bohua, light - hydrocarbon cracking at Jingbo, and MTO at Qinghai Salt Lake. The production in the Shandong region is expected to partially recover in late October [52]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The demand in the Shandong region has increased this week, mainly due to the复产 of PP devices. For PP granules, Jineng's 3PP has复产, and its 2PP is under maintenance; Yulong's 3PP and 5PP have had short - term shutdowns, and currently, its 4PP is shut down; Dongming Petrochemical is under maintenance. For PP powder, Shufukang's new factory has a special - purpose granule production line, and one line of Dongfang Hongye has restarted. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling Chemical are shut down, Binhua has reduced its load, and Wanhua Penglai has increased its load (Shandong Minxiang is in the feeding stage). Luxi Chemical has slightly increased its load. For acrylonitrile, there has been no device change. For acrylic acid, Qilu Kaitai has reduced its load, Wanhua and Shandong Hengxin have increased their loads, and Qixiang Tengda is under maintenance. For butanol and octanol, there have been few device changes. For phenol - acetone, there has been no device change, and Shandong Fuyu is under maintenance [93][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The asphalt market's peak season shows no better - than - expected performance. With increasing short - term external disturbances, it is recommended to adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Supply: Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has little change. Raw material shortages and heavy oil tightness remain unsolved, keeping the asphalt crack spread high [3]. - Demand: Due to the National Day holiday, the overall spot market trading was dull, mainly consuming social inventory. The short - term peak season did not exceed expectations. Future rainfall in the South will continue to affect demand, making the peak season less prosperous [3]. - Inventory: The inventory structure has improved. Factory inventories are stable with low pressure, and social inventories are being depleted. Pre - holiday stockpiling and the start of rigid demand have led to overall inventory reduction [3]. - Cost: As OPEC continues to increase production, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline. The recent rapid drop in crude oil prices is due to the intensification of Sino - US tariffs and weak risk - asset sentiment [3]. - Price: The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. The Shandong consumption tax reform pilot has not been further expanded [3]. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.52% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.22% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 25%, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50%, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. Price Data - **Spot Prices**: On October 17, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and 150 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - **Base and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 12 - contract base was 214 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day and 32 yuan from the previous week; the Shandong spot's crack spread against Brent was 152.8371 yuan/barrel, down 6.9315 yuan from the previous day and 8.5358 yuan from the previous week; the main futures contract's crack spread against Brent was 110.3815 yuan/barrel, down 24.9535 yuan from the previous day and 22.9187 yuan from the previous week [6]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The anti - involution atmosphere and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's re - emphasis on抵制无序价格战 [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The escalation of Sino - US tariffs, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and the increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in Shandong [3][5].

Report Title - South China Futures Coking Coal and Coke Industry Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal and coke is strong, but negative feedback risks need to be vigilant. The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. - In the short term, the coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern, but the downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated marginally, and the steel mill's profitability is under pressure, restricting the rebound space of coking coal [2]. - In the long term, in the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The market expectation for the winter storage in 2026 is improved, which will support the prices of coking coal and coke [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, the upstream inventory pressure was generally light, and the mine owners were strongly willing to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port has also tightened, and the inventory in the regulatory area is low [2][4]. - The supply - demand contradiction of downstream steel products has deteriorated marginally, the steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black industry shows the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season". The rebound space of coking coal is restricted, and there is a risk of negative feedback [2]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The entry interval is (-70, -60) [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis strategy: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [11]. - Calendar spread strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal. Reasons include industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure in the 01 contract, weak short - selling power in the far - month 05 contract; limited position constraints in the 01 contract and fewer restrictions in the far - month contracts; and the expansion of delivery warehouses and capacity by the DCE, which is beneficial for short - selling delivery [11]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices, with the recommended entry interval of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55) [11][13]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Some strategies such as the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal, shorting the coking profit on the futures market, etc., are in different states of execution [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1300, and that of coke is 1550 - 1800 [14]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - Inventory hedging: Steel mills' profitability is shrinking marginally, and coke enterprises' price increase is difficult. Coke enterprises can short the J2601 contract to lock in the sales price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. - Procurement management: Affected by policies, the supply of coking coal is disturbed. Coking plants can go long on the JM2605 contract to lock in the procurement price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The production of coking coal in some mines and washing plants has increased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The inventory in some ports has decreased [15]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and the total inventory has decreased [15]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the spot and futures markets have shown different trends, and the basis, calendar spread, and coking profit have also changed [16][18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central safety production assessment and inspection are about to be carried out; the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is high; mainstream coke enterprises plan to raise the price of dry - quenched coke [21]. - **Negative Information**: The supply and inventory of five major steel products have decreased, but the consumption is still lower than the same period in previous years; the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is negative; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is flat, but the profitability is shrinking [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: Release of China's one - year loan prime rate, year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in September, and year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in September [23]. - October 20 - 23: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held [24]. - Next Thursday: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 [24]. - Next Friday: Release of the US unadjusted CPI annual rate in September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: The main coking coal contract JM2601 is in a wide - range shock interval of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower edge of the interval [25]. - **Capital Flow**: The net short positions of the main coking coal seats have decreased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation for the future has increased. The net short positions of the profitable coke seats have first increased and then decreased, and the market sentiment has improved [27]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal strengthened during the week and then declined slightly [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices [44]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The mine profit has improved month - on - month, but the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The steel mill's profit has continued to shrink, and the iron - making output has decreased marginally [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered, and the customs clearance enthusiasm has increased. The import profit of sea - borne coal has shrunk, and the subsequent arrival pressure is expected to ease [50][54]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal from mid - to late October will be 980 - 985 tons. The net import volume of coking coal in October is expected to be 980 tons, with an average weekly net import volume of about 221 tons [72]. - The coke production enthusiasm is suppressed, and it is expected that the weekly coke production from mid - to late October will be maintained at 773 - 775 tons [75]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The blast furnace profitability has declined marginally, and some steel mills have gradually switched to producing hot - rolled coils. As the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to carry out maintenance is increasing, and the iron - making output is expected to decline slowly [77]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are estimated, including production, import, total supply, theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, and inventory [80].