白糖产业风险管理日报 2025/05/28 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 白糖近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 5600-5800 | 8.04% | 3.1% | source： 南华研究 白糖风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 糖价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑糖期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 生产成本 | SR2507 | 卖出 | 50% | 5900-59 50 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若糖价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | SR507C6000 | 卖出 | 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall pressure on the futures industry has increased due to regulatory adjustments, intensified competition, and a low-interest-rate environment, impacting revenue and operational strategies of listed futures companies [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The adjustment of the trading rules by the China Futures Association will significantly affect the revenue recognition of futures companies starting in 2025, despite not altering the actual profit and loss situation [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue decline for South China Futures, with a 46.20% year-on-year drop to 534 million yuan, primarily due to the impact of new regulations on its risk management business [2]. - Despite revenue fluctuations, South China Futures reported a slight increase in net profit, reaching 85.74 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 0.13% year-on-year growth, leading among its peers [2]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Innovation - In response to the competitive landscape and declining fees, South China Futures has shifted its business focus towards institutional and industrial clients, enhancing communication and collaboration through various initiatives [3]. - The company has launched multiple market cultivation activities in collaboration with exchanges to address challenges faced by enterprises, injecting new vitality into its brokerage business [3][4]. Group 3: Regional Expansion and Service to the Real Economy - The opening of a new branch in Wuhan in 2024 enhances South China Futures' coverage in the central and western regions, providing new growth opportunities [4]. - The company has effectively utilized its expertise in risk management to support agricultural enterprises through innovative models like "insurance + futures," providing 3.46 billion yuan in risk protection across over 160 projects [4]. Group 4: International Business Development - South China Futures has established a presence in major international cities, including Hong Kong, Chicago, Singapore, and London, covering key global time zones [5]. - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of its overseas brokerage business reached 13.8 billion HKD, with asset management totaling 2.5 billion HKD, indicating a robust international business strategy [5]. - The company aims to further expand its clearing business and localize its brokerage operations, enhancing its revenue structure and demonstrating resilience amid regulatory changes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The futures industry is playing a crucial role in risk management for the real economy and resource allocation, contributing to technological innovation, rural revitalization, and the construction of a modern industrial system [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Functions and Innovations - The futures industry serves as a "stabilizer" for industrial upgrades, helping enterprises manage risks associated with commodity price fluctuations and enhancing the resilience of industrial chains [2]. - China's hedging coverage rate for real enterprises is only 15%, significantly lower than the 60% level in developed countries, indicating substantial room for improvement [2]. - Continuous innovation in business models within the futures industry can assist more entities in utilizing risk management tools to stabilize costs and profits [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Development - The company emphasizes technology finance, digital finance, and green finance as strategic development priorities, increasing R&D investment with notable results [3]. - As the first A-share listed futures company in China, the company has been innovating service models and product types to enhance risk management across procurement, sales, inventory, and funding processes [3][4]. - The company has pioneered the "insurance + futures" model to support rural revitalization, optimizing this model to create a new form of land management for farmers [3]. Group 3: AI and Technological Integration - The company is developing AI models to enhance internal applications, including employee assistance, product analysis, and knowledge base Q&A, achieving positive results in various aspects of futures analysis [5][6]. - Future plans include further research in report generation, intelligent data retrieval, process automation, intelligent customer service, and AI investment advisory [6]. - The company is committed to a dual-driven model of business and technological innovation, aiming to enhance financial technology and provide new momentum for industry transformation and economic development [5][6]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Future Directions - Recent regulatory guidelines emphasize the functional role of the futures market, and the company aims to enhance its service offerings across various business dimensions [6].

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2025, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy [1] - The company has established operational centers in Hong Kong, Chicago, Singapore, and London, holding memberships in 14 global exchanges and 11 clearing seats [1] - By the end of 2024, Nanhua Futures' overseas brokerage client equity reached HKD 13.8 billion, with asset management scale at HKD 2.5 billion [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Nanhua Futures reported a 46.2% year-on-year decline in operating revenue to CNY 534 million, but net profit increased slightly by 0.13% to CNY 85.73 million, maintaining the highest net profit among four listed futures companies [2] - The company demonstrated strong anti-cyclical resilience through high-quality business collaboration, focusing on serving the real economy and overseas financial services [2] Group 3 - Nanhua Futures is leveraging its overseas platform advantages to drive profit growth, with overseas business revenue in 2024 reaching CNY 654 million, a 15.32% increase, and a gross margin of 71.26% [3] - The company's Hong Kong subsidiary, Nanhua International, achieved a net profit of CNY 417 million in 2024, becoming a key profit pillar for the group [3] - Nanhua Futures has obtained clearing qualifications from major international exchanges, enhancing its global commodity clearing capabilities [3] Group 4 - The company has seen steady growth in its domestic brokerage business, with client equity increasing from CNY 19.1 billion in 2022 to CNY 31.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.6% [4] - Nanhua Futures has developed a risk management system that enhances operational efficiency and profitability, conducting over 160 "insurance + futures" projects in 2024, providing risk protection of up to CNY 3.46 billion for agricultural entities [4] - The overseas business has become a significant profit growth highlight, with a compound annual growth rate of 68.26% in overseas business revenue from 2022 to 2024 [4]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2025 - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract today added 335 lots, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week's quotes. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.8% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 790 yuan/m³ to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (lg2507P800) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 9.5 - 14 yuan to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options (lg2507C850) at an entry range of 5.5 - 7.5 yuan to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 800 yuan/m³ to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (lg2507P750) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5.5 - 12 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot log purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The main contract added 335 lots today, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was -23.8%, and China's total coniferous log imports were 2.185 million m³, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with a larger decline than the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrivals will be reflected in June. Port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. The average daily port outbound volume was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price difference between wood squares and logs in Rizhao is trending wider, and downstream profits are rising. Currently, the basis of almost all log specifications is positive, but there is some market controversy about the deviation of the size difference. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and subsequent delivery games. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, spot price increases after conversion (108%), main contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and converted basis for different specifications of logs in Rizhao and Taicang ports on May 22, 2025 [3][6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: In April 2025, radiation pine imports were 1.65 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, China's port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Shandong's port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Jiangsu's port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8%. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the average daily port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Jiangsu's average daily outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 700 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was -48 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/m³, and the import profit of spruce was -109 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/m³. - **Main Spot**: On May 22, 2025, the spot prices of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) logs in Taicang Port, 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, and 6 medium (5.8A) logs in Taicang Port were 750 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, and 780 yuan/m³ respectively, with no price changes on the day and year - on - year decreases of 8.5%, 4.9%, 8.3%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent reduction in arrivals. Macroeconomic policies may play a role [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand may be weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. The subsequent shipping volume may recover [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gradual opening of the futures market is a necessary requirement for constructing a "dual circulation" development pattern, driven by the increasing demand for hedging from enterprises engaged in overseas trade of commodities [1] Group 1 - The development of overseas trade in bulk commodities has led to a rising demand for hedging from companies operating abroad [1] - The opening of China's futures market is crucial for enhancing the pricing influence of bulk commodities and improving resource allocation capabilities [1] - The process also supports the internationalization of the Renminbi and serves the hedging needs of the real economy, thereby maintaining national economic security [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou is emerging as a significant hub for innovation and technology, driven by a robust ecosystem of venture capital, government support, and a strong entrepreneurial culture [2][4][6]. Group 1: Innovation Ecosystem - The rise of Hangzhou's tech enterprises, referred to as the "Six Little Dragons," showcases the city's unique innovation ecosystem, which is characterized by a blend of historical commercial foundations and modern technological advancements [2][4]. - Hangzhou's entrepreneurial environment is supported by a strong private economy, with 61.5% of its GDP coming from private enterprises, highlighting the city's vibrant business landscape [4][28]. - The local government plays a crucial role in fostering innovation by providing supportive policies and services that encourage startups and established companies alike [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Support and Capital - Hangzhou is recognized as China's fourth-largest capital city, with a diverse range of financial institutions providing comprehensive support to the tech industry through various financing methods [8][9]. - The establishment of the "3+N" industrial fund cluster aims to enhance investment in strategic emerging industries, demonstrating a proactive approach to capital allocation [6][14]. - Innovative financing models, such as the "talent bank" approach by Zhejiang Commercial Bank, are tailored to meet the unique needs of high-tech companies, facilitating their growth and development [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Growth and Development - The city's GDP is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2023, with a significant contribution from the third sector, which is expected to reach 73% of the GDP by 2024 [23][24]. - The number of listed companies in Hangzhou has surged, with a notable increase in the number of technology firms, reflecting the city's growing prominence in the capital market [25][26]. - Hangzhou's focus on "three new" economies—new industries, new business formats, and new models—has led to a substantial increase in the contribution of these sectors to the overall economy [26][27]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The city is actively developing five major industrial ecosystems, including intelligent IoT and biomedicine, which are expected to drive future economic growth [30][31]. - The digital economy is a key growth driver, with its core industries projected to contribute significantly to the GDP, aiming for a 30% share by 2027 [32][33]. - Hangzhou's commitment to innovation and technology positions it as a leading example of how cities can leverage capital and entrepreneurship to foster sustainable economic development [21][22].

Overview of Guarantee Situation - The company, Honghua International, provided a guarantee of 3 million USD for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanhua Singapore Pte. Ltd. [1][2] - After this guarantee, the total amount of guarantees provided by Honghua International reached 289 million CNY [1][2]. - The company has approved a total guarantee limit of 1.6 billion CNY for inter-company guarantees within its consolidated financial statements [2]. Basic Information of the Guaranteed Entity - Nanhua Singapore was established on November 24, 2016, with a registered capital of 12 million USD [3]. - As of December 31, 2024, Nanhua Singapore had total assets of approximately 3.25 billion HKD and total liabilities of approximately 3.02 billion HKD [3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, Nanhua Singapore reported revenue of approximately 249.89 million HKD and a net profit of approximately 163.88 million HKD [3]. Main Content of the Guarantee - The guarantor is Honghua International, with a guarantee amount of 3 million USD [4]. - The guarantee is a payment guarantee and remains effective until the debt is fully settled [5]. Necessity and Reasonableness of the Guarantee - The guarantee is intended to meet the operational needs of the subsidiary and ensure stable business development [5]. - The guaranteed entity has the ability to repay its debts, and the guarantee does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [5]. - The company can effectively control the operational risks and credit status of the guaranteed entity [5]. Cumulative External Guarantee Quantity - As of the announcement date, the total amount of guarantees provided by the company's subsidiaries is 289 million CNY, accounting for 7.01% of the company's latest audited net assets [5].

原木产业风险管理日报 2025年5月20日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 750-820 | 17.24% | 76.9% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 现货敞口 | | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原木进口量 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空原木期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 850-790 | | 库存管理 | 偏高库存高 位，担心价 格下跌 | 多 | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖出看涨期权 | lg2507P80 0 | 买入 | | 9.5-14 | | | | | 降低资金 ...

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-031 南华期货股份有限公司关于 子公司横华国际金融股份有限公司为其子公司 提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称：公司全资子公司 NANHUA SINGAPORE PTE.LTD.（以下简 称"NANHUA SINGAPORE"） 本次担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保金额：横华国际金融股份有限公 司（以下简称"横华国际"）本次担保金额为 300 万美元；本次担保实施后，横 华国际已实际提供的担保总额为 2.89 亿元。 特别风险提示：本次被担保人 NANHUA SINGAPORE 最近一期资产负债率超 过 70%，其中大部分负债为经纪业务的客户权益。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，NANHUA SINGAPORE 扣除客户保证金后资产负债率为 10.31%。 一、担保情况概述 根据业务发展需要，横华国际于 2025 年 5 月 20 日为 NANHUA SINGAPORE 提 供担保,本次担保金额为 ...