Report Title - South China Futures Coking Coal and Coke Industry Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal and coke is strong, but negative feedback risks need to be vigilant. The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. - In the short term, the coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern, but the downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated marginally, and the steel mill's profitability is under pressure, restricting the rebound space of coking coal [2]. - In the long term, in the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The market expectation for the winter storage in 2026 is improved, which will support the prices of coking coal and coke [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, the upstream inventory pressure was generally light, and the mine owners were strongly willing to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port has also tightened, and the inventory in the regulatory area is low [2][4]. - The supply - demand contradiction of downstream steel products has deteriorated marginally, the steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black industry shows the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season". The rebound space of coking coal is restricted, and there is a risk of negative feedback [2]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The entry interval is (-70, -60) [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis strategy: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [11]. - Calendar spread strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal. Reasons include industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure in the 01 contract, weak short - selling power in the far - month 05 contract; limited position constraints in the 01 contract and fewer restrictions in the far - month contracts; and the expansion of delivery warehouses and capacity by the DCE, which is beneficial for short - selling delivery [11]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices, with the recommended entry interval of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55) [11][13]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Some strategies such as the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal, shorting the coking profit on the futures market, etc., are in different states of execution [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1300, and that of coke is 1550 - 1800 [14]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - Inventory hedging: Steel mills' profitability is shrinking marginally, and coke enterprises' price increase is difficult. Coke enterprises can short the J2601 contract to lock in the sales price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. - Procurement management: Affected by policies, the supply of coking coal is disturbed. Coking plants can go long on the JM2605 contract to lock in the procurement price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The production of coking coal in some mines and washing plants has increased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The inventory in some ports has decreased [15]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and the total inventory has decreased [15]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the spot and futures markets have shown different trends, and the basis, calendar spread, and coking profit have also changed [16][18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central safety production assessment and inspection are about to be carried out; the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is high; mainstream coke enterprises plan to raise the price of dry - quenched coke [21]. - **Negative Information**: The supply and inventory of five major steel products have decreased, but the consumption is still lower than the same period in previous years; the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is negative; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is flat, but the profitability is shrinking [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: Release of China's one - year loan prime rate, year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in September, and year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in September [23]. - October 20 - 23: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held [24]. - Next Thursday: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 [24]. - Next Friday: Release of the US unadjusted CPI annual rate in September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: The main coking coal contract JM2601 is in a wide - range shock interval of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower edge of the interval [25]. - **Capital Flow**: The net short positions of the main coking coal seats have decreased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation for the future has increased. The net short positions of the profitable coke seats have first increased and then decreased, and the market sentiment has improved [27]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal strengthened during the week and then declined slightly [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices [44]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The mine profit has improved month - on - month, but the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The steel mill's profit has continued to shrink, and the iron - making output has decreased marginally [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered, and the customs clearance enthusiasm has increased. The import profit of sea - borne coal has shrunk, and the subsequent arrival pressure is expected to ease [50][54]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal from mid - to late October will be 980 - 985 tons. The net import volume of coking coal in October is expected to be 980 tons, with an average weekly net import volume of about 221 tons [72]. - The coke production enthusiasm is suppressed, and it is expected that the weekly coke production from mid - to late October will be maintained at 773 - 775 tons [75]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The blast furnace profitability has declined marginally, and some steel mills have gradually switched to producing hot - rolled coils. As the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to carry out maintenance is increasing, and the iron - making output is expected to decline slowly [77]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are estimated, including production, import, total supply, theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, and inventory [80].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates that the current market sentiment and stock market performance are favorable for a bond market rebound. Traders are advised not to chase the rising prices. Those with existing long positions can continue to hold, while those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Friday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with long - term bonds showing larger gains. Spot bond yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There were 164.8 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan. [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Over 80 senators in the US Senate are prepared to empower President Trump to impose a maximum 500% tariff on China according to Bessent. The yield of two - year US Treasury bonds dropped to the lowest level since 2022, as credit concerns drove up safe - haven demand. [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The A - share market adjusted more significantly today, with previous hot sectors experiencing sharp declines. Although the broader market has not yet broken out of the range - bound pattern, the ChiNext and STAR markets may enter a medium - term adjustment. Driven by this, treasury bond futures rose across the board, with TL performing the most prominently. [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 17 Price | 2025 - 10 - 16 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 17 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 10 - 16 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.378 | 102.368 | 0.01 | 75015 | 74561 | 454 | | TF2512 | 105.775 | 105.705 | 0.07 | 161860 | 158704 | 3156 | | T2512 | 108.265 | 108.16 | 0.105 | 266722 | 261675 | 5047 | | TL2512 | 115.73 | 115.02 | 0.71 | 184963 | 182946 | 2017 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0216 | - 0.0216 | 0 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.013 | - 0.0228 | 0.0098 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0256 | 0.0489 | - 0.0233 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1525 | 0.2778 | - 0.1253 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 23759 | 26753 | - 2994 | - | - | - | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47873 | 42876 | 4997 | - | - | - | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 75516 | 62951 | 12565 | - | - | - | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 126789 | 110395 | 16394 | - | - | - | [4][5]

Macro News - The main focus is on the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 999.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a 3.82% increase. The opening price was 968.56 CNY per gram, with a high of 1001.00 CNY and a low of 968.56 CNY [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed an open attitude towards equal consultations based on mutual respect, while the Foreign Ministry firmly opposed the U.S. linking tariff extensions to China's rare earth export controls [1] - U.S. banks reported issues related to loan fraud and bad debts, leading to a nearly 7% drop in the regional bank index and an 11% decline in Jefferies' stock [1] - There is a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution while others call for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. The ongoing government shutdown is complicating data flow and consensus within the Fed [1] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to the Senate's tenth rejection of a temporary funding bill, contributing to market uncertainty [1] Institutional Perspectives - Precious metals are showing strong upward momentum, with significant changes in U.S. market indicators, including a decline in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, alongside a drop in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and oil prices [1] - The rise in silver leasing rates indicates increasing risk accumulation in the U.S. financial markets, exacerbated by concerns over the potential impacts of the government shutdown and trade tariff uncertainties [1] - The exposure of loan fraud and bad debts by two U.S. banks has triggered panic selling in the market, significantly impacting the regional bank index [1] - For investment strategies in precious metals, the long-term trend may lean towards bullish, while short-term volatility is expected to increase. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach or consider short-term trading strategies [2] - Specific resistance and support levels for gold and silver are identified, with gold facing resistance at 4500 and support at 4300, while silver has resistance at 55 and support at 50 [2]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. submitted its Hong Kong IPO prospectus on April 17, 2025, which became invalid after six months on October 17, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [1] - Nanhua Futures is headquartered in China and focuses on providing financial services related to futures and derivatives, offering comprehensive and customized risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - The company aims to provide diversified wealth management services to both domestic and overseas investors, and it was the first futures company to be listed on the A-share market in China in August 2019, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider headquartered in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider based in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by Nanhua Futures and Nanhua Fund on International Blind Day aims to enhance financial literacy and security awareness among the visually impaired community, demonstrating corporate social responsibility and humanistic care for special groups [2][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Safeguarding Financial Rights · Supporting a Better Life" included financial education and a health running activity in collaboration with the Hangzhou Blind Association [2]. - A financial education session was held at Nanhua Futures' investor education base prior to the running event [2]. Group 2: Financial Education - Qian Jun, the chairman of the Hangzhou Blind Association, emphasized the vulnerability of the visually impaired to scams due to limited access to information, highlighting the importance of financial knowledge and fraud awareness [4]. - Zhou Yufeng, chief economist of Nanhua Fund, conducted a training session on fund investment, covering types of public funds, asset allocation strategies, and key points for selecting funds, stressing the need for appropriate product matching based on risk tolerance [6]. Group 3: Employee Engagement and Social Responsibility - Nanhua Fund's assistant general manager, Song Changwei, expressed the company's commitment to corporate social responsibility, aiming to deeply disseminate financial knowledge to special groups and help them avoid scams while safeguarding their retirement funds [11]. - Employees of Nanhua participated in the event, experiencing the challenges faced by visually impaired individuals and fostering empathy and understanding through shared activities [8][11]. Group 4: Call to Action - The company encourages everyone to contribute to the inclusion of disabled individuals in society, ensuring they share in the benefits of economic development and financial rights protection [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 11 - contract of logs has returned to a deep - discount state, similar to the 09 - contract, and it is not unexpected for it to enter the delivery month with a deep discount due to the low willingness of long - position holders to take delivery. The 01 - contract has seen a significant increase in trading volume, becoming the main contract. There are marginal bullish factors for the 01 - contract, but the long - term impact is uncertain [6]. - The recommended strategy is to go short on the 11 - contract and try to go long on the 01 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, companies with long - position exposure can short log futures (lg2511) at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 820 - 830 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, those with short - position exposure can buy log futures (lg2511) at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 780 - 800 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The lg2511 contract closed at 797 (+4) with a decrease in open interest of 860. The lg2601 contract closed at 824 (+2.5) with an open interest of 11,000 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price remained unchanged [5]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 831 yuan/cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters (+130,000) [6]. 3.4 Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Updated Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiata pine imports | 2025 - 08 - 31 | 1.3 million | - 0.1 million | - 3.7% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 2.99 million | + 0.13 million | + 17.3% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 1,892,000 | + 118,000 | + 71.4% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 880,900 | + 33,007 | - 11.2% | Weekly | m³ | | Demand | Average daily log outbound volume at ports | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 57,300 | - 8,300 | - 7.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 34,400 | 0 | + 5.2% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 17,900 | - 8,400 | - 19.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiata pine import profit | 2025 - 10 - 17 | - 64 | + 1 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 10 - 17 | - 118 | + 2 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | Outer - market Quote | CFR | 2025 - 10 - 17 | 115 | 0 | - 7.3% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10][12] 3.5 Basis Analysis The report provides the basis data for different specifications of logs in various regions, including the basis after conversion, which is calculated as the scaled - up spot price (108%) minus the main - contract futures price plus or minus the premium/discount [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillatory and Wait-and-See" [7] Core View - The current pulp market supply-demand structure is loose, with significant pressure on the Russian needle basis, and prices remain suppressed in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid blindly chasing short positions. Strategies include going long on the futures side when prices are low and selling out-of-the-money put options on the far-month options side [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 12.80% and a 3-year historical percentile of 19.7% [2] Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of paper-making enterprises is low and they hope to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to long pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [2] Market Quotes - **Futures**: sp2511 closed at 4856 (+0), sp2601 closed at 5152 (-18) [3] - **Spot**: Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5500 yuan/ton (-0), Shandong Russian needle at 5000 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4250 yuan/ton (+0) [4] - **Port Inventory**: As of October 10, port inventory was 2.077 million tons (+44,000 tons) [4] - **Month Spread Structure**: Wait-and-see on the 11 - 01 reverse spread [4] Core Contradiction - Market sentiment is weak, with light spot trading. Fundamentally, the decline in the quoted price of foreign coniferous pulp, low acceptance of Russian needle spot, and slow destocking of port inventory restrict price performance. Supply pressure persists, with stable overseas coniferous pulp supply. In late August, the pulp shipped to China reached 1.67 million tons, higher than the seasonal average and a 5.7% month-on-month increase [4] - The continuous strengthening of the Russian needle basis is mainly driven by the sharp decline in futures prices, indicating the pressure on the spot market. Downstream demand is weak, with only white cardboard in the seasonal peak season. Other finished paper products face high enterprise inventory and low production profits, and the overall willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient [4] Pulp Quotation - Provides the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and price ranges of various pulp futures contracts, domestic spot pulp, and domestic finished paper products [8] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the transfer, production cut, and price increase of overseas broadleaf pulp [11] - **Negative Factors**: High overseas shipments, high port inventory with slow destocking, weak peak-season demand downstream, and low willingness to accept Russian needle warehouse receipts [11]