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油料产业风险管理日报-20251209
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 08:59
Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: December 9, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Wandong (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022725) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans focus on whether the yield of 53 bushels per acre in the December supply - demand report will continue to be reduced. The US claims 12 million tons of Chinese purchases, but less than 40% has been completed, and the completion date may be postponed. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the US soybean price will fluctuate around the cost - line. The inner - market soybean meal lacks a unilateral driver and will follow the outer - market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the scale of the state reserve release will determine the supply in the first quarter. [4] - Recently, US soybeans have fallen below key levels, and the inner - market has followed suit with a larger decline due to the news of state reserve release. The profit of soybean purchases has decreased. The scale of the state reserve release is estimated to be between 5 - 6 million tons, and a weekly release of 500,000 tons may continue until the end of February. When trading the profit of US soybean purchases, the supply scale should be used to judge the trend. [4] - Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and subsequent imports, the supply is expected to recover, so the rapeseed meal market is weak. Currently in the off - season of aquatic consumption, the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to rise. [4][5] - The cost of previous soybean purchases supports the near - month contracts, and the outer - market balance sheet valuation range is moving up. However, the current high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China, the smooth planting in Brazil, and the expected South American bumper harvest are suppressing the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - month is expected to be filled under the background of China - US trade talks. [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Forecast | Commodity | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 2800 - 3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2250 - 2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | [3] | 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | High protein inventory, worried about the decline in meal prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory | M2605 | Sell | 25% | 2850 - 2900 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2605 | Buy | 50% | 2700 - 2750 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to the situation | M2605 | Sell | 50% | 2850 - 2950 | [3] | 3. Oilseed Futures Prices | Commodity | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | - 22 | - 0.73% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2763 | - 15 | - 0.54% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2936 | - 9 | - 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2397 | - 25 | - 1.03% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2317 | - 25 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2446 | - 18 | - 0.73% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1093.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.0723 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [9] | 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 252 | 37 | RM01 - 05 | 20 | - 7 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | - 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 69 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 100 | - 5 | RM09 - 01 | 49 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 199 | 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 38 | 35 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 640 | 20 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 436 | - 8 | [10] | 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4716.1059 | - 40.415 | 0.0773 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3763.46 | - 32.42 | - 73.19 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 766.8465 | - 2.2244 | 6.6552 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 1011.6253 | - 40.415 | - 138.5985 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 67.7677 | 0.2112 | - 0.708 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 687 | - 51 | 23 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 913 | - 55 | 13 | [11] |
南华期货(603093) - 南华期货股份有限公司关于境外孙公司获得美国Coinbase Derivatives交易会员资格的公告
2025-12-09 08:15
证券代码:603093 证券简称:南华期货 公告编号:2025-071 特此公告。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 美国时间 2025 年 12 月 8 日,公司境外全资孙公司 Nanhua USA LLC 收到 Coinbase Derivatives,LLC 交易所(以下简称"Coinbase Derivatives")通 知,获批成为其交易会员。目前,Nanhua USA LLC 已是 Coinbase Derivatives 指定清算机构 Nodal Clear,LLC 的清算会员。本次获批后,Nanhua USA LLC 可 交易及清算在 Coinbase Derivatives 上市的相关产品。 南华期货股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 12 月 10 日 南华期货股份有限公司关于境外孙公司获得 美国 Coinbase Derivatives 交易会员资格的公告 ...
南华期货(603093) - 南华期货股份有限公司关于境外孙公司获得美国Coinbase Derivatives交易会员资格的公告
2025-12-09 08:00
美国时间 2025 年 12 月 8 日,公司境外全资孙公司 Nanhua USA LLC 收到 Coinbase Derivatives,LLC 交易所(以下简称"Coinbase Derivatives")通 知,获批成为其交易会员。目前,Nanhua USA LLC 已是 Coinbase Derivatives 指定清算机构 Nodal Clear,LLC 的清算会员。本次获批后,Nanhua USA LLC 可 交易及清算在 Coinbase Derivatives 上市的相关产品。 证券代码:603093 证券简称:南华期货 公告编号:2025-071 南华期货股份有限公司关于境外孙公司获得 美 国 Coinbase Derivatives 交易会员资格的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告。 南华期货股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 12 月 10 日 ...
南华期货(603093.SH):境外孙公司获得美国 Coinbase Derivatives 交易会员资格
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-09 07:59
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures has received approval to become a trading member of Coinbase Derivatives, enhancing its capabilities in the derivatives market [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Nanhua Futures' wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanhua USA LLC, was notified on December 8, 2025, of its approval to join Coinbase Derivatives as a trading member [1] - Nanhua USA LLC is already a clearing member of Nodal Clear, LLC, which is the designated clearing agency for Coinbase Derivatives [1] - Following this approval, Nanhua USA LLC will be able to trade and clear products listed on Coinbase Derivatives [1]
南华期货境外孙公司获得美国Coinbase Derivatives交易会员资格
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 07:57
南华期货(603093)(603093.SH)发布公告,美国时间2025年12月8日,公司境外全资孙公司Nanhua USA LLC收到Coinbase Derivatives,LLC 交易所(以下简称"Coinbase Derivatives")通知,获批成为其交易 会员。目前,Nanhua USA LLC已是Coinbase Derivatives 指定清算机构Nodal Clear,LLC的清算会员。本 次获批后,Nanhua USA LLC可交易及清算在Coinbase Derivatives 上市的相关产品。 ...
南华期货(603093.SH)境外孙公司获得美国Coinbase Derivatives交易会员资格
智通财经网· 2025-12-09 07:51
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures has received approval for its subsidiary, Nanhua USA LLC, to become a trading member of Coinbase Derivatives, enhancing its trading capabilities in the derivatives market [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Nanhua USA LLC is now a trading member of Coinbase Derivatives, allowing it to trade and clear products listed on the exchange [1] - Nanhua USA LLC is already a clearing member of Nodal Clear, LLC, which is the designated clearing agency for Coinbase Derivatives [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The approval signifies a strategic move for Nanhua Futures to expand its presence in the cryptocurrency derivatives market [1] - This development may enhance liquidity and trading options for Nanhua USA LLC, positioning it competitively within the growing digital asset sector [1]
南华期货:境外孙公司获美国Coinbase Derivatives交易会员资格
人民财讯12月9日电,南华期货(603093)12月9日公告,境外全资孙公司Nanhua USA LLC收到 Coinbase Derivatives,LLC 交易所(简称"Coinbase Derivatives")通知,获批成为其交易会员。目前, Nanhua USA LLC已是Coinbase Derivatives指定清算机构Nodal Clear,LLC的清算会员。本次获批后, Nanhua USA LLC可交易及清算在Coinbase Derivatives上市的相关产品。 ...
南华期货:境外孙公司获得美国 Coinbase Derivatives 交易会员资格
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-09 07:44
格隆汇12月9日丨南华期货(603093.SH)公布,美国时间 2025 年 12 月 8 日,公司境外全资孙公司Nanhua USA LLC 收到Coinbase Derivatives,LLC 交易所(以下简称"Coinbase Derivatives")通知,获批成为其 交易会员。目前,Nanhua USA LLC 已是Coinbase Derivatives指定清算机构 Nodal Clear,LLC 的清算会 员。本次获批后,Nanhua USA LLC可交易及清算在 Coinbase Derivatives 上市的相关产品。 ...
多元金融板块12月8日涨1.01%,瑞达期货领涨,主力资金净流出7539.68万元
Market Performance - The diversified financial sector increased by 1.01% on December 8, with Ruida Futures leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Ruida Futures (002961) closed at 29.38, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 67,600 shares and a transaction value of 266.6 million [1] - Yong'an Futures (600927) closed at 15.63, up 4.97% with a trading volume of 221,500 shares and a transaction value of 345 million [1] - Other notable performers include 弘业期货 (001236) up 4.51%, *ST仁东 (002647) up 3.16%, and 南华期货 (603093) up 3.06% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The diversified financial sector experienced a net outflow of 75.3968 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 100 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that retail investors are increasingly active in the market despite the overall net outflow from major funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Zhonghai Capital (000617) had a net inflow of 51.8342 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 47.0365 million [3] - Hainan Huatie (603300) saw a net inflow of 44.7164 million from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 27.2872 million [3] - Other stocks like 永安期货 (600927) and 瑞达期货 (002961) also showed mixed capital flows, with institutional inflows and retail outflows [3]
供需面宽松格局不改 尿素期货行情延续震荡回落
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-08 07:05
Group 1 - The domestic urea futures market is experiencing a fluctuating downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1661.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.08% [1] - Urea prices are facing increased resistance to rise, as industrial compound fertilizer enterprises have ramped up production, leading to a sustained high daily output of urea and a generally loose supply-demand situation [2] - The marginal demand for urea has shown some improvement, with compound fertilizer weekly operating rates increasing by 3.5% to 40.5%, and the number of urea orders rising by 0.7% to 7.35 [2] Group 2 - Urea inventory has decreased to 1.291 million tons, down by 73,000 tons week-on-week, indicating ongoing destocking efforts [2] - Despite a number of maintenance activities in December affecting around 7 million tons of total capacity, daily production is expected to remain high at 19-20 thousand tons, with a reported daily output of 19.68 thousand tons, which is an increase of 1.49 thousand tons year-on-year [2] - The urea market is currently supported by fundamentals and policies, with short-term downward space being effectively supported while facing upward pressure, leading to expectations of continued fluctuations [2]