2024 年 09 月 08 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] Q2 销量环比大幅提升，工业硅景气度阶段承压 ——合盛硅业（603260）动态点评 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------------| | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2024/09/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/09/06 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of September 5, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in performance despite being at the bottom of the cycle, with a well-ordered advancement in the integrated supply chain [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 978 million yuan, a decrease of 45.12% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw significant improvements in industrial silicon production and sales, with revenue from industrial silicon reaching 4.672 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 107.04% [1]. - The company is enhancing its competitive advantage through a complete utilization of its quartz sand resources and a focus on internal raw material usage to lower procurement costs [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits to be 2.286 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, followed by increases of 34.0% and 28.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][4]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 27.302 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 2.7% compared to 2023 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 21.3% in 2024 to 22.4% in 2026 [4]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 25.76, 19.23, and 14.94 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. Production and Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced production costs through technological upgrades and has expanded its production scale significantly [1]. - The production volume of industrial silicon in Q2 2024 was 500,000 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.74% [1]. - The company has achieved a leading position in the domestic market for silicon carbide products, with a crystal yield exceeding 90% and an epitaxial yield stable at over 95% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.272 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 45.1% to 978 million yuan [2] - The decline in product prices and inventory impairment led to a significant drop in profits, but the operating cash flow improved significantly in Q2, reaching a historical high [2] - The company is enhancing its "coal-electricity-silicon" industrial chain layout and focusing on developing new silicon-based materials [2] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the industrial silicon business generated revenue of 6.937 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 29.5% [2] - The organic silicon business achieved revenue of 5.986 billion yuan, but the gross margin fell by 6.2 percentage points to 16.3% due to price declines [2] - The company recorded a significant inventory impairment loss of 484 million yuan in H1 2024, impacting profits [2] Capacity and Production - As of June 2024, the company has an annual production capacity of 1.22 million tons for industrial silicon, 1.73 million tons for organic silicon, and 50,000 tons for polysilicon [2] - The company has successfully launched its first photovoltaic production line in its Xinjiang integrated photovoltaic industrial park [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards due to falling product prices, with expected net profits of 2.521 billion yuan (down 38%), 3.544 billion yuan (down 31%), and 4.078 billion yuan respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to the bottom of the industry cycle, with a downward adjustment of the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.81, 2.12, and 2.81 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.73, 3.13, and 3.49 yuan. The target price is adjusted to 63.35 yuan from 67.26 yuan, based on a 35 times PE for 2024 [3][5]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.272 billion and 978 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.18% in revenue but a decrease of 45.12% in net profit [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in industrial silicon and organic silicon, with a complete industrial chain, which supports its long-term growth potential despite current challenges [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 27.265 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.6% compared to 2023. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 2.144 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to be 19.4% in 2024, down from 20.1% in 2023, indicating pressure on profitability [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to be 6.3% in 2024, reflecting a decline from 8.1% in 2023 [4]. Sales and Production Insights - The company’s sales volume for industrial silicon and cyclic siloxane in Q1 2024 was 16.96 and 1.92 million tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.14% and 15.79% [3]. - In Q2 2024, the sales volume for industrial silicon increased significantly to 40.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 102.29%, while cyclic siloxane sales decreased by 9.79% [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, with significant projects underway, including a 200,000-ton annual production capacity for polysilicon and a 150 million-ton capacity for photovoltaic glass [3].

H1 盈利承压，硅行业景气待复苏 研究员 庄汀洲 SAC No. S0570519040002 SFC No. BQZ933 zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com +(86) 10 5679 3939 研究员 张雄 SAC No. S0570523100003 zhangxiong@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 杨泽鹏 SAC No. S0570123070267 yangzepeng@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 24H1 归母净利 9.78 亿元/同比-45%，维持"增持"评级 合盛硅业于 8 月 29 日发布 24 年半年报。24H1 实现营收 132.7 亿元，同比 +11%，归母净利润 9.78 亿元（扣非后 8.99 亿元），同比-45%（扣非后同 比-44%）；其中 24Q2 单季实现营收 78.6 亿元，同比+27%，归母净利 4.5 亿元（扣非后 3.8 亿元），同比-42%/环比-15%（扣非后同比-40%/环比-27%）。 我 们 预计 公司 24-26 年 归 母 净利为 27/36/44 亿 元 ， 对应 EPS ...

证券代码：603260 证券简称：合盛硅业 公告编号：2024-069 合盛硅业股份有限公司 第四届监事会第三次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 08 月 30 日披露于上海证券交易所网站 （http://www.sse.com.cn/）及指定信息披露媒体的《合盛硅业 2024 年半年度募集资 金存放与实际使用情况的专项报告》。 表决结果：3 票赞成、0 票反对、0 票弃权、0 票回避。 3、审议通过了《关于公司 2024 年半年度计提资产减值准备的议案》 具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 08 月 30 日披露于上海证券交易所网站 （http://www.sse.com.cn/）及指定信息披露媒体的《合盛硅业关于 2024 年半年度计 提资产减值准备的公告》。 合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"合盛硅业"）第四届监事会第三次 会议通知于 2024 年 8 月 18 日以电子邮件送达的方式发出，会议于 2024 年 8 月 29 日上 ...

证券代码：603260 证券简称：合盛硅业 公告编号：2024-060 合盛硅业股份有限公司 关于调整以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●本次调整前回购股份方案：在披露股份回购实施结果暨股份变动公告后一年 内予以转让 ●本次调整后回购股份方案：在披露股份回购实施结果暨股份变动公告后三年 内予以转让 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》《上市公 司股份回购规则》等法律法规的规定，合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、 "合盛硅业"）于 2024 年 8 月 29 日召开第四届董事会第四次会议，审议通过了《关 于调整以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的议案》，同意公司对股份回购方案部分 内容进行调整，具体情况如下： 一、调整前本次回购股份事项的概述 2023 年 12 月 11 日，公司召开第三届董事会第二十二次会议、第三届监事会第 十五次会议审议并通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的议案》，具体 内容详见公司于 2023 年 1 ...

证券代码：603260 证券简称：合盛硅业 公告编号：2024-064 合盛硅业股份有限公司 2024 年半年度募集资金存放与实际使用情况的专项报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司监管指引第 2 号——上市公司募 集资金管理和使用的监管要求》和上海证券交易所的《上海证券交易所上市公 司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》等相关规定，合盛硅业股份有限公司 （以下简称"公司"或"合盛硅业"）董事会编制了 2024 年半年度募集资金存放与 实际使用情况的专项报告，具体如下： 一、募集资金基本情况 （一）实际募集资金金额和资金到账时间 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司非公开发行 A 股募集资金使用和结余金额情 况如下： 金额单位：人民币 万元 | 项 目 | | 金 额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非公开发行募集资金净额 | | 699,422.07 | | | 本期发生额 | 项目投入 | 43.64 | | | 利息收入净额 | | ...

证券代码：603260 证券简称：合盛硅业 公告编号：2024-067 合盛硅业股份有限公司 关于 2024 年半年度计提资产减值准备的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 8 月 29 日召开了第四届 董事会第四次会议，审议通过了《关于公司 2024 年半年度计提资产减值准备的议 案》，为了更加客观、公正地反映公司的财务状况和资产价值，根据中国企业会计准 则及公司会计政策的相关规定，基于谨慎性原则对合并报表范围内截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的各项资产进行了充分分析和评估，并根据结果对其中存在减值迹象的资产 相应计提了减值准备，现将相关情况公告如下： （一）本次计提资产减值准备的原因 一、资产减值准备情况概述 根据《企业会计准则》及公司会计政策等相关规定，为客观反映公司的财务状 况、经营成果，基于谨慎性原则，公司对截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日公司及下属子公司 的各类资产进行全面评估和减值测试，对可能发生资产减值损失的相关资产计提减 值准备 ...

证券代码：603260 证券简称：合盛硅业 公告编号：2024-066 合盛硅业股份有限公司 关于 2024 年第一季度报告更正的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特别提示：本次更正不影响营业收入、净利润等主要会计数据和财务指标，仅 更正《2024 年一季度报告》合并现金流量表的部分数据，对财务状况和经营成果没 有影响，对公司投资价值的判断不会产生重大影响。 合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 4 月 30 日在上海证券 交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）上披露了公司《2024 年第一季度报告》。经核查发 现，报告中部分信息披露有误，现对相关内容予以更正。本次更正对公司财务状况 和经营成果没有影响，现对相关内容予以更正如下： 更正前： 四、季度财务报表 合并现金流量表 | | | | 项目 | 2024 年第一季度 | 2023 年第一季度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、投资活动产生的现金流量： | | | | | | | | 处置固定资产、无形资产和其他 ...