Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rumors regarding a restructuring plan in the photovoltaic industry, specifically in the polysilicon sector, which were later debunked by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the polysilicon market and the need for industry consolidation to address overcapacity and financial losses [3][6]. Group 1: Industry Restructuring Rumors - Rumors circulated about a closed-door meeting on July 29, where a "white paper" for industry restructuring was supposedly created, involving 11 polysilicon companies forming a joint venture to consolidate 70,000 tons of capacity [4]. - The proposed acquiring companies included six traditional giants and five emerging firms, indicating a significant shift in industry dynamics [4]. - The exit of six notable companies from the market signals a major reshuffling within the industry [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Responses - The polysilicon industry has faced a severe downturn, with prices plummeting from nearly 300,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to around 40,000 yuan currently, leading to widespread losses [5]. - The urgency for consolidation stems from the industry's prolonged struggles, with many companies on the brink of failure, necessitating a market-driven solution to avoid chaotic exits [5][10]. - The article highlights the government's proactive stance in addressing the issue of excessive competition and guiding the industry towards healthier development [5][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Policy Implications - The article references past discussions on supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, including targets for capacity reduction and efficiency improvements [8][9]. - It notes that the government's recognition of the detrimental effects of "involution" in manufacturing has led to a renewed focus on restructuring and efficiency [10][11]. - The divergence in market outlooks between domestic and foreign analysts is attributed to differing interpretations of government policy impacts on the industry [10].

另有业内人士坦言，当前市场传闻信息太多，真真假假难以辨别，市场对相关信息也十分敏感。7月29 日国内商品期货收盘，多晶硅等涨逾3%。 值得注意的是，光伏行业协会并未明确提及澄清事项的具体细节。记者从业内多方获悉，光伏行业协会 本次澄清内容或与市场传闻的多晶硅行业以大收小的收储事项有关，据了解，被收购的多晶硅产能涉及 信义、南玻、宝丰、润阳、合盛硅业（603260）等多家企业。谈及该事项时，业内人士认为，多晶硅收 储的进展还是取决于谈判情况，"此外，关键还是要去库存，有库存的公司应该停产去库存，不然，即 使完成多晶硅环节的以大收小，也没法分配接下来的开工负荷。" 人民财讯7月29日电，7月29日晚间，中国光伏行业协会在官方微信公众号上发布一则澄清信息，称近日 有部分自媒体发布了关于光伏行业反内卷，特别是多晶硅方面工作的新闻。该协会称"相关内容与实际 情况严重不符，请大家不信谣，不传谣"。协会表示，将秉着法制化、市场化原则推进反内卷工作，力 求尽快走出内卷式恶性竞争，请大家一切以官方发布信息为准，并感谢大家对光伏行业的支持，坦言任 重道远。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced fluctuations in operating rates, currently recovering to 72%, but there is a severe oversupply in products related to new energy, such as industrial silicon [1][2] - Major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng have healthy cash flows and profitability, outperforming overseas competitors, which may lead to an optimization of the domestic chemical industry landscape as foreign companies exit [1][3] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical industry has turned negative at -1.1%, indicating a potential end to natural attrition [1][4] Organic Silicon Industry Insights - The organic silicon industry is expected to see no new capacity additions from 2025 to 2026, suggesting a potential recovery from the bottom [1][4][9] - The organic silicon supply chain shows that polysilicon is the largest downstream segment, accounting for 55%, while organic silicon represents 27.6% [1][6] - The DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) price is currently around 12,500 RMB/ton, with a profit margin of approximately 1,300 RMB/ton, which is at a decade low [2][13] - The total capacity of the organic silicon industry is projected to reach 3.44 million tons by 2025, having doubled since 2019 [1][8] Demand and Market Dynamics - The apparent demand growth for organic silicon is forecasted at 21% for 2024, with export growth at 34%, driven by the exit of overseas capacity and increased domestic demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [1][10] - In the first half of 2025, the apparent demand growth reached 23.9%, although export growth saw a decline due to trade relations [11] - The organic silicon industry is currently in a favorable improvement trend, with a CR3 of 45.9% and CR5 of 61.9%, indicating a high concentration in the market [12] Industrial Silicon Sector - The industrial silicon sector is characterized as high energy consumption and low value, with a total capacity of 7.48 million tons, primarily concentrated in the Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan regions [2][16][17] - Current industrial silicon prices are around 9,600 RMB/ton, with mid-tier companies struggling to remain profitable [2][18] - The market outlook for industrial silicon is optimistic due to the potential for effective regulation and the implementation of anti-involution measures [19] Key Companies and Investment Opportunities - Key companies in the organic silicon sector include Hoshine Silicon Industry, which has a DMC capacity of 880,000 tons, holding a market share of 25.6% [2][14] - Other notable companies include Dongyue Group, Xian Chemical, and Luxi Chemical, which also have significant capacities and potential for profit growth [14][15][21] - The potential for profit improvement in the organic silicon sector is significant, driven by demand growth and the exit of less competitive players [7][12] Conclusion - The chemical industry, particularly the organic silicon segment, is poised for recovery with no new capacity additions expected in the near term, while the industrial silicon sector faces challenges but shows signs of potential improvement through regulatory measures and market dynamics [1][4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook due to the anticipated benefits from anti-involution policies [2]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the implementation of anti-involution policies, which aim to reduce unhealthy competition and improve pricing structures [13][14]. - The report highlights that certain chemical products are currently at historical low prices, suggesting potential for price recovery as market conditions improve [15]. - The focus is on eight specific products with significant price recovery potential: spandex, organic silicon, PVC, titanium dioxide, soda ash, propylene oxide, glyphosate, and TDI [15]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Policies - The government is committed to addressing "involution-style" competition, with plans for new policies to stabilize key industries including chemicals [13][14]. - The aim is to eliminate low-cost sales practices that have led to unsustainable pricing and profitability issues within the industry [14]. Spandex Market - Spandex prices have reached historical lows, with a steady increase in production and inventory pressures [19][22]. - The spandex market is dominated by major players such as Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, which hold significant market shares [29][40]. Organic Silicon Market - Organic silicon prices are at a five-year low, with a diverse range of applications across various industries [44][49]. - The industry is characterized by limited new capacity additions, with major producers like Hoshine Silicon and Dongyue Group leading the market [55]. PVC Market - PVC is a widely used plastic, primarily in the real estate sector, and is expected to benefit from the consolidation of production capacity [6][19]. - Key companies in the PVC market include Zhongtai Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye, which are positioned to capitalize on market recovery [6]. Titanium Dioxide Market - Titanium dioxide prices have hit five-year lows, with high inventory levels impacting profitability [6][19]. - Major players in this sector include China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide and Longbai Group, which are expected to navigate the challenging market conditions [6]. Soda Ash Market - The soda ash market is facing high inventory levels, with significant applications in real estate and photovoltaic industries [6][19]. - Key companies include Boyuan Chemical and Shandong Haihua, which are well-positioned to benefit from future demand recovery [6]. Propylene Oxide Market - Propylene oxide has a low concentration of production capacity, with broad applications across various sectors [6][19]. - Key players include Binhai Chemical and Weiyuan Chemical, which are expected to benefit from market dynamics [6]. Glyphosate Market - Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide globally, with increasing demand driven by rising agricultural output [6][19]. - Major companies in this space include Xingfa Group and Jiangshan Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from a favorable market environment [6]. TDI Market - TDI supply-demand dynamics remain tight due to production disruptions, with significant barriers to entry for new players [6][19]. - Key companies include Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical, which are expected to maintain strong market positions [6].

证券代码：603260 证券简称：合盛硅业 公告编号：2025-046 合盛硅业股份有限公司 关于控股股东一致行动人部分股份解质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 截至本公告日，合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东一致 行动人罗燚直接持有公司192,493,302股股份，占公司总股本16.28%。本次解质押 后，罗燚累计质押股份为77,170,600股，占其所持股份比例的40.09%，占公司总 股本比例6.53%。 截至本公告日，合盛集团及其一致行动人罗立国、罗燚、罗烨栋合计直接持 有公司股份929,105,229股，占公司总股本的78.59%。本次解质押后，合盛集团及 其一致行动人罗立国、罗燚、罗烨栋直接持有的公司股份中处于质押状态的股份 累计数为434,443,200股，占其合计所持公司股份总数的46.76%，占公司总股本的 36.75%。 公司于近日接到控股股东一致行动人罗燚关于其所持部分公司股份办理解 质押业务的通知，具体事项如下： | 股东名称 | 罗燚 | | -- ...

Summary of Industrial Silicon Price Trends Conference Industry Overview - The industrial silicon demand is primarily driven by polysilicon, with production capacity increasing from 1.08 million tons in 2021 to an expected 3 million tons by the end of 2024, and projected to reach 3.3 million tons by 2025 [1][3] - The recent rebound in industrial silicon prices is attributed to supply reductions (notably from Hoshine Silicon Industry), increased demand (growth in organic silicon and polysilicon), inventory structure changes, and market sentiment [1][4] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply and demand for industrial silicon show a marginal improvement, with supply tightening due to Hoshine's production cuts, despite some increases in Yunnan and Sichuan regions [5][6] - From June to July, significant destocking occurred, reducing total inventory from 350,000 tons to 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory around 800,000 tons [1][6] - The main demand sources for industrial silicon are polysilicon (43%), organic silicon (25.97%), and aluminum alloys (15%), with exports accounting for about 15% [1][8] Market Sentiment and Price Influences - Market sentiment significantly impacts industrial silicon prices, with expectations of anti-competitive policies leading polysilicon companies to agree on selling at no less than cost, driving prices up [1][4] - Coal costs are a critical factor influencing industrial silicon prices, showing a correlation with coking coal price trends [1][7] Industry Changes and Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a capacity consolidation phase, expected to complete by the end of September, which may lead to price increases and production decreases [11][12] - By the end of 2025, China's actual industrial silicon capacity is projected to be around 8 million tons, with nominal capacity at 7 million tons, indicating a potential severe oversupply [13][15] - Historical trends show that industrial silicon prices typically bottom out with capacity reductions, but currently, no such reductions are observed despite low prices [14][15] Policy and Regulatory Impact - There are ongoing discussions about eliminating small furnaces (below 12,500 kVA), which could significantly impact the industry if implemented, potentially reducing total capacity by up to 5% [18][19] - The effectiveness of market-driven measures to eliminate outdated capacity is questioned, particularly in regions where small furnaces produce specialized products [27][31] Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost structure varies significantly across regions, with cash costs in Xinjiang around 6,800 RMB/ton, while costs in Yunnan and Sichuan can reach up to 10,000 RMB/ton [24][25] - The profitability outlook for the third quarter is positive, with expectations of turning losses into profits if prices exceed 10,000 RMB/ton [29] Key Focus Areas - Key areas to monitor in the coming months include Hoshine's production resumption and the potential impact of small furnace elimination policies on supply-demand balance and pricing [20] Additional Insights - The organic silicon market is rapidly developing, with significant applications in photovoltaics and electric vehicles, and is expected to maintain stable growth [10] - The integration of polysilicon production is anticipated to stabilize prices and improve overall market conditions [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the peak of capacity expansion in the organic silicon industry has passed, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance. The short-term disruptions in supply may facilitate a recovery in profitability for organic silicon [4][17][27] - Domestic demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in construction, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles. The report anticipates significant contributions from the renewable energy sector [5][28][38] - The report emphasizes the continuous growth of organic silicon exports, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.2% in 2024 [5][42] Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: Product Performance and Applications - Organic silicon compounds exhibit excellent adhesive and sealing properties, temperature resistance, and weather resistance, making them suitable for various end-use applications [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Expansion Peak Passed - The organic silicon industry saw significant capacity additions from 2022 to 2024, with annual increases of 775,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 720,000 tons, respectively. The growth rates were 41%, 3%, and 26% [4][17] - As of the end of 2024, the total capacity of the domestic organic silicon industry is expected to reach 3.44 million tons, with a concentration ratio (CR5) of 60% [17][20] 3. Demand Side: Steady Growth in Domestic and Export Markets - The apparent consumption of domestic organic silicon DMC is projected to grow from 893,200 tons in 2017 to 1,816,400 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5][28] - The report notes that the construction sector, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles will account for 25.2%, 23.0%, 14.6%, and 11.5% of organic silicon DMC consumption in 2024, respectively [36] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Xingfa Group, while suggesting that companies like Sanyou Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Luxi Chemical may benefit from the industry's recovery [6][45]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the share pledge release by the controlling shareholder's concerted action party, indicating a reduction in pledged shares and the overall shareholding structure of the company [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholding and Pledge Details - As of the announcement date, the controlling shareholder's concerted action party, Luo Yi, holds 192,493,302 shares, accounting for 16.28% of the total share capital [1]. - After the release of the pledge, Luo Yi has a total of 78,240,600 pledged shares, which represents 40.65% of his holdings and 6.62% of the company's total share capital [1]. - The total shares held by Hoshine Group and its concerted action parties amount to 929,105,229 shares, representing 78.59% of the total share capital, with 435,513,200 shares pledged, which is 46.87% of their total holdings [1][3]. Group 2: Specifics of the Pledge Release - The specific details of the pledge release include the release of 11,000,000 shares on July 18, 2025, and additional smaller amounts on subsequent dates, totaling 1,600,000 shares and 1,070,000 shares on July 21 and July 22, 2025, respectively [1]. - The released shares account for 5.71% of Luo Yi's holdings and 0.93% of the company's total share capital [1]. Group 3: Financial Health and Risk Management - Hoshine Group and its concerted action parties are reported to have good credit and financial conditions, with future repayment sources including operating income, investment returns, and dividends from held shares [3]. - The company states that the pledge risks are within controllable limits and there are no substantial factors that could lead to a change in control of the company [3].

截至本公告日，合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东一致 行动人罗燚直接持有公司192,493,302股股份，占公司总股本16.28%。本次解质押 后，罗燚累计质押股份为78,240,600股，占其所持股份比例的40.65%，占公司总 股本比例6.62%。 截至本公告日，合盛集团及其一致行动人罗立国、罗燚、罗烨栋合计直接持 有公司股份929,105,229股，占公司总股本的78.59%。本次解质押后，合盛集团及 其一致行动人罗立国、罗燚、罗烨栋直接持有的公司股份中处于质押状态的股份 累计数为435,513,200股，占其合计所持公司股份总数的46.87%，占公司总股本的 36.84%。 公司于近日接到控股股东一致行动人罗燚关于其所持部分公司股份办理解 质押业务的通知，具体事项如下： | 股东名称 | | 罗燚 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 本次解质股份数量 | 股 11,000,000 1,600,000 | 股 | 股 1,070,000 | 1,600,000 | 股 | | 占其所持股份比例 | 5.71% 0.83% | | ...

Group 1 - The A-share silicon energy sector experienced a short-term rise, with Silicon Treasure Technology increasing by over 6%, and Yijing Optoelectronics and Hesheng Silicon Industry rising by over 5% [1] - The main contract for polysilicon has hit the daily limit for the second consecutive trading day, priced at 53,165 yuan per ton [1]