Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 6.78[12] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 167.43 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.42[12] Building Materials Sector - China National Materials' net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 18.54 billion, with a PE ratio of 16.65[12] - Keda Manufacturing's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 17.24 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.82[12] - Three Trees' revenue compound growth rate from 2015 to 2018 was approximately 33%[40] Transportation Sector - SF Holding's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 117.44 billion, with a PE ratio of 20.58[12] - The company has seen a significant increase in daily package handling, reaching an average of 166 packages per courier in 2024[56] Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 22.52 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.30[12] - Ba Tian's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 12.84 billion, with a PE ratio of 7.59[12] Financial Performance - The overall net profit for Keda Manufacturing is projected to reach CNY 19.0 billion by 2026, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contributing to growth[31]

中国经济网北京6月9日讯 中谷物流（603565）（603565.SH）6月7日披露了股东减持股份计划公告称， 截至公告披露日，公司控股股东中谷海运集团有限公司（以下简称"中谷集团"）及其一致行动人宁波谷 洋投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"谷洋投资"）、宁波谷泽投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙） （以下简称"谷泽投资"）合计持有公司股份1,365,480,392股，占公司总股本的比例为65.02%。 近日公司接到股东谷泽投资及谷洋投资的通知，谷泽投资拟通过集中竞价方式减持其所持有的公司股 份，不超过11,552,043股，不超过公司总股本的0.55%；谷洋投资拟通过集中竞价、大宗交易方式减持 其所持有的公司股份，不超过51,449,850股，不超过公司总股本的2.45%。 中谷物流2024年度募集资金存放与使用情况专项报告显示，根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准上 海中谷物流股份有限公司非公开发行股票的批复》（证监许可〔2021〕2355号），公司向特定对象非公 开发行人民币普通股（A股）股票9,209.11万股，发行价为每股人民币29.84元，共计募集资金274,799.96 万元，坐扣承销和保荐费用1 ...

张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 06 | 月 | 日 | | 06 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 9.80 | | | | | | 一 年 内 / 最 低 | | | | 10.93/6.82 | | 高 | | 最 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhonggu Logistics [1] Core Views - The small container ship market remains highly prosperous, benefiting from the foreign trade leasing business [1] - The company reported a revenue of 11.258 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9%, with a net profit of 1.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.569 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 41% to 547 million yuan [7] - The company is optimizing its capacity allocation between domestic and foreign trade to enhance operational efficiency [7] - The demand for small container ships is strong due to the shift of the industrial chain from China to Southeast Asia and ongoing trade tensions between China and the US [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.79 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 90%, leading to an estimated dividend yield of about 9% for 2025 [7] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected profits of 2 billion, 1.8 billion, and 1.7 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 13.148 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 17.7% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 17.4% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is estimated at 10 for 2025 [6]

证券代码：603565 证券简称：中谷物流 公告编号：2025-017 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： IPO 前取得：51,710,073股 当前持股股份来源 其他方式取得：95,535,395股 ? 减持计划的主要内容：近日公司接到股东谷泽投资及谷洋投资的通知， 谷泽投资拟通过集中竞价方式减持其所持有的公司股份，不超过 价、大宗交易方式减持其所持有的公司股份，不超过 51,449,850 股， 不超过公司总股本的 2.45%。本次减持计划自本公告披露之日起 15 个 交易日后的 3 个月内实施，且在任意连续 90 日内，谷泽投资及谷洋投 资以集中竞价交易方式合计减持的股份数量不超过公司总股本的 1%， 以大宗交易方式合计减持的股份数量不超过公司总股本的 2%。在减持 计划实施期间，公司若发生派发红利、送红股、资本公积金转增股本、 回购股份注销、增发新股或配股等股份变动事项，上述减持数量将进 行相应调整。 一、减持主体的基本情况 股东名称 中谷海运集团有限公 ...

证券代码：603565 证券简称：中谷物流 公告编号：2025-017 重要内容提示： 1 股东持股的基本情况：截至本公告披露日，上海中谷物流股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东中谷海运集团有限公司（以下简称"中 谷集团"）及其一致行动人宁波谷洋投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）（以 下简称"谷洋投资"）、宁波谷泽投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下 简称"谷泽投资"）合计持有公司股份 1,365,480,392 股，占公司总股 本的比例为 65.02%。 减持计划的主要内容：近日公司接到股东谷泽投资及谷洋投资的通知， 谷泽投资拟通过集中竞价方式减持其所持有的公司股份，不超过 11,552,043 股，不超过公司总股本的 0.55%；谷洋投资拟通过集中竞 价、大宗交易方式减持其所持有的公司股份，不超过 51,449,850 股， 不超过公司总股本的 2.45%。本次减持计划自本公告披露之日起 15 个 交易日后的 3 个月内实施，且在任意连续 90 日内，谷泽投资及谷洋投 资以集中竞价交易方式合计减持的股份数量不超过公司总股本的 1%， 以大宗交易方式合计减持的股份数量不超过公司总股本的 2%。在减持 计划实施 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ship repair industry is crucial for supporting the global shipping sector, with its development closely linked to the global economy. The market has shown stable growth due to increasing international trade and shipping activities, although growth rates have fluctuated due to macroeconomic conditions [1][10]. Industry Overview - Ship repair involves maintaining and restoring the condition of vessels, including hulls, machinery, and equipment, to ensure safe operation. The industry is categorized into planned maintenance, accident repair, and basic restoration [3][4]. - The global ship repair volume is projected to increase from 13,127 vessels in 2017 to 39,002 vessels by 2024, although growth rates are expected to decline due to economic uncertainties [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The demand for ship repair services is closely tied to the shipping market, with increased shipping frequency and distance leading to higher maintenance needs. In 2024, China's waterway freight volume is expected to reach 9.811 billion tons, a 4.7% increase year-on-year [8][10]. - The proportion of repairs for older vessels is decreasing, while the share of repairs for vessels under 10 years old is rising, indicating a trend towards younger fleets [12][21]. Competitive Landscape - The ship repair industry in China is characterized by a diverse competitive landscape, dominated by three major state-owned enterprises, which collectively hold a 55.2% market share. Other private and joint-venture companies account for 44.8% [16][19]. - Major players include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, and China Merchants Industry Holdings, which leverage their technological and financial strengths to maintain competitive advantages [17][19]. Future Trends - The ship repair industry is expected to see increased demand for vessel upgrades and replacements, supported by government policies aimed at promoting the scrapping of older vessels [21]. - There is a clear trend towards digitalization and automation in the industry, with the adoption of AI, big data, and blockchain technologies to enhance maintenance efficiency and transparency [22]. - Market concentration is anticipated to rise, with larger firms likely to dominate the landscape, potentially leading to the elimination or consolidation of smaller players [24]. - Chinese ship repair companies are actively seeking to expand into international markets, particularly in line with the Belt and Road Initiative, necessitating compliance with international maritime regulations [25].

Core Viewpoint - The company Dongfang Jiasheng (002889) has announced the acquisition of 9.5426 million shares of Zhonggu Logistics (603565) at a price of 10.45 yuan per share, totaling an investment of 99.7205 million yuan through block trading [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Details** - The company utilized its own funds to purchase shares of Zhonggu Logistics, with the total transaction amounting to 99.7205 million yuan [1] - The acquisition price per share was set at 10.45 yuan, resulting in a total of 9.5426 million shares acquired [1] - **Fund Redemption** - Jiaohong Yongye Investment Holdings initiated a redemption request to Shanghai Chenxiang for a total of 106 million yuan from the Chenxiang Chensheng Fund [1] - The remaining shares in the fund cannot be redeemed until the investment products mature, to avoid prolonged fund settlement [1] - **Financial Impact** - The total investment amount represents 4.18% of the company's most recent audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 550 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.7%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 440 million yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year. The recovery in domestic trade demand and the strong performance in external leasing contributed positively to the company's results [2][5][10]. - The domestic trade sector is in a recovery phase, with supply tightening and freight rates increasing. The PDCI index averaged 1232 points in Q1 2025, up 9.4% year-on-year. The external leasing market remains robust, driven by structural issues in the feeder fleet and increased demand from major shipping companies [10]. - The company is benefiting from rising freight rates in domestic trade and increased rental income from external leasing, leading to improved performance. The gross profit margin increased by 9.4 percentage points to 25.9% due to the rising rental income and cost management [10]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2025-2027, resulting in dividend yields of 5.2%, 5.5%, and 5.7% respectively. The actual dividend payout ratio for 2024 reached 90.39%, corresponding to a yield of 8.1% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.57 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year. Operating costs were 1.90 billion yuan, down 18.1% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 550 million yuan, up 40.7% year-on-year. The net profit after non-recurring items was 440 million yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year [2][5][10]. Market Dynamics - The domestic trade market is recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in container throughput at major ports in January-February 2025. The supply expansion phase has ended, and the growth rate of domestic shipping supply is expected to remain low in the coming years [10]. - The external leasing market is experiencing high demand, with significant increases in rental rates for feeder vessels. The rental rates for 2750TEU and 4250TEU feeder vessels increased by 114.1% and 143.3% year-on-year, respectively [10]. Future Outlook - The company projects net profits of 1.97 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.5, 11.0, and 10.5 times [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on increased dividends [1] - The shipping sector shows strong performance in container shipping, while oil and dry bulk shipping face pressure [3][4] - The highway sector experienced a rebound in traffic in Q1 2025, while port container business remains robust [4] - The railway passenger transport is stable, but freight transport is under pressure [4] - The airline industry sees steady growth in passenger traffic, although ticket prices are under slight pressure [6] - The express delivery sector exceeded expectations in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth into Q1 2025, despite intense price competition [7] - Cross-border logistics face challenges due to coal market pressures and tariff policies affecting air freight demand [8] Summary by Sections Shipping - Container shipping shows impressive performance, with significant profit growth and stable dividends [15] - Oil shipping and dry bulk shipping face challenges, with fluctuating rates and cautious dividend policies [18][21] - The report notes a strong increase in container shipping rates due to geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [14][15] Highways - In 2024, highway traffic saw a slight decline, but Q1 2025 traffic improved, leading to increased profits for highway companies [35][38] - The report indicates that highway companies are maintaining high dividend payouts despite previous revenue declines [41][43] Ports - Port container throughput growth outpaced other sectors, benefiting from a favorable international trade environment [44][46] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of container port companies, with significant profit increases [47][48] Railways - Railway passenger volumes remained stable, while freight volumes faced challenges, impacting overall profitability [49] Airlines - The airline sector is experiencing steady passenger growth, but ticket prices are slightly under pressure, affecting profitability [6] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a significant increase in volume in 2024, continuing strong growth into Q1 2025, although competition remains fierce [7] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics companies are facing challenges due to market pressures and tariff impacts on air freight demand [8]