[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 口子窖(603589)公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 二季度承压，静待后续改善 ——口子窖 2025 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2025 年中报。25H1，公司实现总营收 25.31 亿元，同比-20.07%， 归母净利 7.15 亿元，同比-24.63%，扣非归母净利 6.98 亿元，同比-24.90%。 25Q2，公司实现总营收 7.21 亿元，同比-48.48%，归母净利 1.05 亿元，同 比-70.91%，扣非归母净利 0.91 亿元，同比-73.41%。 上半年整体承压，电商渠道增长 1）白酒整体承压、行业分化等影响，上半年及二季度公司销量同比下滑。 25H1，公司高档/中档/低档白酒收入分别为 23.85/0.32/0.68 亿元，同比分 别-19.80%/-10.82%/-2.59%，其中高档白酒收入下滑幅度较大。25Q2，公 司高档/中档/低档白酒收入分别为 6.57/0.12/0.29 亿元，同比分别-49.64%/- 7.68%/+7 ...

来源：红星新闻 2025年，中国白酒行业在消费代际更迭与宏观经济波动下加速分化。 作为市场晴雨表的53度飞天茅台，其价格走势与销售动向持续牵动行业神经。 近日，红星新闻走访了多家线下门店以及采访多地酒商发现，尽管市场环境波动，53度飞天茅台终端价格整体平 稳，与此同时，茅台的客群与场景也在发生转变。 除了价格外，库存问题也是白酒行业关注的重点。 价格与销量：价格平稳，库存相对健康 今年以来，茅台酒市场价格相关信息备受市场关注。 8月8日，红星新闻记者从成都市区多家连锁超市、酒行了解到，目前散瓶装53度飞天茅台售价比较平稳。多地酒 商也表示，价格体系呈现区域分化但整体稳中有升的特征。 记者从河南酒商处了解到，近年来，茅台持续为经销商提供丰富的市场支持，包括品鉴会、文化推广、走进企 业、圈层拓展等活动，帮助经销商和客户强化品牌认知、拓展客群。 同时，有酒商表示，当前郑州市场飞天茅台库存处于合理区间。随着中秋旺季临近，动销有望加速，库存将进一 步回归健康。 贵州酒商表示，茅台为经销商提供一系列市场活动支持，比如开展品鉴会、文化推广活动等，助力提升品牌影响 力和产品销量。就库存水平而言，目前处于相对健康状态，没有出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges, including a major shareholder's plan to reduce holdings, a failed stock incentive plan, declining financial performance, and a decrease in dividend payouts, all of which contribute to a negative outlook for its future development [2][4][6][9]. Shareholder Actions - The founder and major shareholder, Liu Ansheng, plans to reduce his stake by up to 10 million shares, representing 1.67% of the total shares, with an expected cash-out of over 3.37 billion yuan based on the closing price [2][3]. - Liu Ansheng's current holdings have decreased from 72.64 million shares at the time of the IPO to 63.47 million shares, indicating a trend of continuous reduction since his retirement in 2020 [3][9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates have significantly slowed, with 2024 revenue at 6.015 billion yuan, a 17.14% increase from 2022, and net profit at 1.655 billion yuan, a mere 6.77% increase [5][6]. - The company has lowered its dividend payout for 2024 to 778 million yuan, with a per-share dividend decrease from 1.5 yuan in 2023 to 1.3 yuan, breaking its previously stable dividend policy [6][9]. Stock Incentive Plan - The company announced the cancellation of its stock incentive plan due to failing to meet performance targets, which were set to achieve over 30% growth in net profit and revenue by 2024 [4][5]. - The total number of shares to be repurchased and canceled is 1.8805 million, which will reduce the total share capital to 598.12 million shares [5]. Market Performance - As of July 18, the company's stock price closed at 33.73 yuan, down 58.15% from its peak of 80.59 yuan at the end of 2021, and approximately 53% lower than its rebound high of 71.77 yuan in 2023 [7][9]. - The current market environment shows a clear divide in the liquor industry, with leading companies maintaining growth while regional players like the company are struggling [8][9]. Future Outlook - The combination of shareholder sell-offs, failed incentive plans, declining financial metrics, and reduced dividends casts a shadow over the company's future prospects [9]. - The company needs to implement substantial and effective adjustments in its operational strategy, management efficiency, and investor communication to regain market confidence and address increasing competition [9].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant divergence among leading companies, with Fenjiu entering the top three, creating a new competitive landscape of "Mao, Wu, and Fen" [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe's revenue and net profit for 2024 were 28.876 billion and 6.673 billion respectively, showing declines of 12.83% and 33.37%, with net profit returning to 2017 levels [2] - Gujing Gongjiu reported revenue and net profit of 23.578 billion and 5.517 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.41% and 20.22%, achieving historical highs [2] - The revenue gap between Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu has narrowed significantly over five years, with Yanghe's lead in revenue decreasing from 10.809 billion to 5.298 billion and in net profit from 5.627 billion to 1.151 billion [2] Group 2: Product Performance - Yanghe's mid-to-high-end liquor products saw a revenue decline of 14.79%, significantly impacting net profit, which fell more than revenue [4] - Gujing Gongjiu's mid-to-high-end products, particularly the year-round original series, achieved revenue of 18.086 billion, growing by 17.31% and accounting for 76.7% of total revenue [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Yanghe's revenue from domestic and external markets fell by 11.43% and 14.35% respectively, indicating pressure in both areas [5] - Gujing Gongjiu maintained strong growth across all regions, with significant increases in Central, North, and South China [7] Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Yanghe claims to be undergoing a "proactive deceleration transformation" for sustainable development, although this has not aligned with market expectations [8] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Yanghe facing challenges from both internal and external competitors, particularly in its home market [10][11] Group 5: Channel Effectiveness - Yanghe has the highest number of distributors at 8,866, but its average revenue per distributor is lower than Gujing Gongjiu's, indicating less channel efficiency [12] - Yanghe's distributor count increased by only 77, while Gujing Gongjiu added 448, reflecting a stronger market appeal for Gujing Gongjiu [14] Group 6: Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is shifting towards a new normal of stock competition and volume reduction, with Yanghe's challenges highlighting the need for strategic adjustments [15]