证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 饮料乳品 香飘飘(603711) 报告日期:2024年11月05日 24Q3 业绩略有承压,期待后续改善 香飘飘 2024Q3 业绩点评报告 投资要点 0 2024Q3 公司业绩有所承压,收入和利润均有所下滑,由于公司业务调整期以及 需求较弱等影响,冲泡业务 24Q3 略有下滑,即饮业务保持增长,期待公司后续 改善以及旺季到来带来的冲泡业务的恢复。 0 24Q3 收入略有下滑,业绩符合预期 2024 年前三季度实现收入 19.38 亿元,同比下滑 2.05%;实现归母净利润 0.18 亿 元，同比增长 408.98%。 2024Q3 实现收入 7.59 亿元，同比下滑 6.10%；实现归母净利润 0.47 亿元，同比 下滑 0.62%;实现扣非净利润 0.37亿元,同比下滑 6.52%。 拆分来看,公司冲泡业务前三季度实现收入 11.10亿元,同比下滑 8.27%;即饮 类产品实现 8.01 亿元,同比增长 7.89%;24Q3 冲泡业务实现收入 4.96 亿元,同 比下滑 14.88%，即饮业务实现 2.54 亿元，同比增长 17.82%。 □ 毛利率略有增长,净利率有所提升 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a total revenue of 1.938 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 408.98% [2] - The core business of instant products is under pressure, while ready-to-drink products are steadily growing. The revenue from the instant business in Q3 2024 was 496 million yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink products achieved revenue of 254 million yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in the ready-to-drink segment, with expectations for improved performance in the peak season of Q4 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit margin of 6.22%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in gross margin [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 40.94%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [3] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 293 million, 337 million, and 385 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 15%, and 14% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 12.97 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 5.33 billion yuan [5][6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.64 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 33.67% [6]

香飘飘食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 12.97 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.94 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million CNY [2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 760 million CNY, down 6.1% year-on-year, while the net profit was 50 million CNY, a slight decline of 0.6% [2]. - The company is focusing on health-oriented new products and has seen significant growth in fruit tea, with Q3 revenue increasing by over 40% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and ongoing cost reduction efforts [3]. - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 6.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has expanded its stock option incentive program, granting 2.66 million stock options to 16 core employees, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 310 million CNY, 370 million CNY, and 430 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75 CNY, 0.89 CNY, and 1.05 CNY [1][4]. - The projected dynamic PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17x, 15x, and 12x respectively [1]. - The total market capitalization is 5.327 billion CNY, with total assets amounting to 4.893 billion CNY and a net asset value per share of 7.90 CNY [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 20 million yuan, an increase of 409% year-on-year [1] - The ready-to-drink segment showed a revenue increase of 7.9% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in the Meco fruit tea brand [1] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel expansion, with new product launches aimed at attracting younger consumers [1] Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 760 million yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and stable raw material prices [1] - The company’s net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.9%, up 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [1] Segment Performance - The brewing segment generated 1.11 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, down 8.3% year-on-year, mainly due to a cautious inventory approach from distributors [1] - The ready-to-drink segment's revenue for the first three quarters was 801 million yuan, with significant growth in specific channels such as campus and family packaging [1] - The company’s core markets, including East China, Southwest, and Central China, reported revenues of 800 million, 250 million, and 285 million yuan respectively, with East China showing a stable growth of 4.4% year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to enter a peak season for brewing products in Q4 2024, with anticipation of increased distributor stocking ahead of the early Chinese New Year in 2025 [1] - The company has introduced two new products aimed at health-conscious and younger demographics, which are expected to enhance revenue potential [1] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2024 has been adjusted to 286 million yuan, reflecting a 9.5% downward revision from previous estimates [1][2]

证 2024 年 11 月 02 日 公 司 研 究 报 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in its brewing business, but the upcoming winter brewing season is expected to reverse this trend, leading to a significant profit contribution in Q4 [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 409.0% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 330 million, 400 million, and 490 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 19.0%, 20.9%, and 22.0% respectively [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 6.1%, with the brewing segment generating 500 million yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year, due to weak external demand [2] - The ready-to-drink segment saw revenue growth of 17.8%, reaching 250 million yuan, driven by steady growth in products like Meco fruit juice tea and frozen lemon tea [2] - The company added a net of 76 distributors in Q3, with significant increases in the East China and Central China regions [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 40.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material and freight costs [3] - The selling expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio rose by 1.0 percentage points, mainly due to stock incentive costs [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 improved by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight decline in net profit [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.262 billion, 4.920 billion, and 5.674 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.6%, 15.4%, and 15.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 334 million yuan in 2024 to 403 million yuan in 2025 and 492 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 19.0%, 20.9%, and 22.0% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 16.0 in 2024 to 10.8 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 13.72 yuan [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.938 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 18 million yuan, a significant increase of 408.98% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on the upcoming Spring Festival peak season for inventory and sales, expecting distributors to actively stock up in advance [3]. - The company is actively exploring new channels and scenarios, although the e-commerce channel has seen a significant decline [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 759 million yuan, down 6.10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 47 million yuan, down 0.62% year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 40.94%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [3]. - The company’s sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 26.13%, 8.06%, 1.58%, and -1.23% respectively, showing a decline in efficiency due to pressure on revenue [3]. Product Performance Summary - Instant drink products have seen accelerated growth, while brewed products have experienced a more pronounced decline. In Q3 2024, brewed products generated 496 million yuan in revenue, down 14.9% year-on-year, while instant drink products generated 254 million yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year [3]. - The company has been innovating and upgrading its milk tea products and expanding its product line to meet consumer demand for diverse flavors [3]. Regional Performance Summary - The company’s revenue in the East China region remained stable, achieving 363 million yuan in Q3 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year, accounting for 48% of total revenue [3]. - The company has a total of 1,851 distributors as of Q3 2024, with a net increase of 320 distributors in the first three quarters [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company, Xiangpiaopiao (603711.SH), reported a revenue of 1.938 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 408.98% to 18 million yuan [3][5]. - The beverage segment is experiencing a shift, with the ready-to-drink products showing growth, while the instant drink segment is under pressure [4][5]. - The gross margin improved to 40.94% in Q3 2024, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an orderly increase in overall profitability [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 759 million yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 47 million yuan, a decrease of 0.62% [3]. - The instant drink segment generated 801 million yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a growth of 7.89% year-on-year, while the instant drink segment saw a decline of 8.27% [4]. - The company’s revenue from various regions showed mixed results, with East China growing by 4.42% while e-commerce and direct sales faced declines [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 281 million, 364 million, and 449 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 15, and 12 [5][6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit margins, with the net profit margin reaching 6.22%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Valuation and Forecast - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.692 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.8%, and net profit is expected to remain stable at 281 million yuan [11][14]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the instant drink segment and continued growth in the ready-to-drink category, supporting the investment thesis [5][6].

证券代码：603711 证券简称：香飘飘 公告编号：2024-031 香飘飘食品股份有限公司 2024 年前三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十 二号--酒制造》的相关规定，现将香飘飘食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 2024 年前三季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、 公司 2024 年前三季度主要经营情况 1、按产品档次分类情况： 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 产品分类 | 2024 | 年 | 1-9 | 月 | 2023 年 月 | 1-9 | 增减变动幅度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售收入 | | | | 销售收入 | | | （%） | | 冲泡类 | 1,109,787,098.93 | | | | 1,209,855,876.72 | | | -8.27 | | 即饮类 | 801,328,153 ...