Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming domestic demand peak are expected to support the prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - It anticipates a strong demand season for copper and aluminum, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [5][9]. - The report notes that tin prices are likely to show resilience due to tight supply conditions, while antimony prices are under pressure from weak demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 3.37% increase in the week from August 25 to August 29, outperforming the broader market [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+17.19%), tungsten (+14.70%), and silver (+12.45%) [21]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - China's industrial profits for July showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3% [27]. - The U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index was reported at 2.5%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation [27]. 3. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold prices rose to $3,429.15 per ounce, an increase of $90.85 (2.72%) from August 21 [30]. - Silver prices also increased to $38.80 per ounce, up $1.24 (3.29%) [30]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices on the LME closed at $9,875 per ton, up $150 (1.54%) from August 22 [41]. - Aluminum prices in China were reported at 20,720 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan [42]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, reflecting a favorable investment outlook [12]. - Specific stocks recommended include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Huaxi Securities among others [13].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993) for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, citing expected increases in copper and other rare metal prices, which will drive a 38% growth in recurring profits for the year [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares has been increased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's A-shares has been raised from CNY 11.5 to CNY 13 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a net profit of CNY 8.67 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit was CNY 8.62 billion, a year-on-year growth of 52%, which exceeded market expectations but was 8% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to higher-than-expected sales costs in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]

公司名稱: 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03993 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 RMB | | 786,693,600 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 RMB | | 786,693,600 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 ...

Group 1 - The metal nickel concept increased by 3.58%, ranking fourth among concept sectors, with 32 stocks rising, including Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Shengda Resources, and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit [1] - Leading gainers in the nickel sector included Hanrui Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Xingye Silver Tin, which rose by 10.14%, 9.47%, and 8.25% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 860 million yuan from main funds, with 18 stocks receiving net inflows, and five stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Huayou Cobalt, with a net inflow of 489 million yuan, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings with net inflows of 164 million yuan, 158 million yuan, and 151 million yuan respectively [2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and Western Mining led with ratios of 20.79%, 12.57%, and 9.22% respectively [3] - The overall performance of the nickel sector was supported by significant trading volumes and turnover rates, with notable stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum showing strong trading activity [3][4]

Group 1 - As of September 1, the metal cobalt concept increased by 3.05%, ranking 6th among concept sectors, with 31 stocks rising, including Zhejiang Fu Holdings and China Ruilin hitting the daily limit, while Hanrui Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum saw significant gains of 10.14%, 9.47%, and 8.25% respectively [1] - The metal cobalt sector experienced a net outflow of 530 million yuan in main funds today, with 13 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Huayou Cobalt with a net inflow of 489 million yuan [2] - The top net inflow rates were recorded for China Ruilin, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and Hainan Mining, with rates of 30.50%, 12.57%, and 7.87% respectively [3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the metal cobalt sector included Huayou Cobalt with a 4.52% increase, Luoyang Molybdenum at 9.47%, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings at 10.08% [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Beikong Technology at -3.94%, Dadi Bear at -2.63%, and Green Beauty at -1.21% [5] - The overall performance of the metal cobalt sector reflects a mixed sentiment, with significant gains in some stocks while others faced notable declines [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company exceeded production targets in the first half of 2025, leading to better-than-expected financial performance. Revenue reached 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07% [1][2]. - The company achieved production targets across all product lines, with copper production at 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68%, and cobalt production at 61,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.05% [2]. - The company is optimistic about future copper prices due to macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, expecting a price increase in the coming months [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 8.724 billion yuan, up 55.08% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company has adjusted its full-year production expectations upward due to strong performance in the first half and rising prices for tungsten and molybdenum [4]. Production and Pricing - The company’s copper and cobalt mines, TFM and KFM, are set for expansion, with TFM achieving an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, and KFM with a capacity of over 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt [3]. - Prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, ammonium paratungstate, and monoammonium phosphate have all increased in the first half of 2025, with copper averaging $9,431 per ton, a 3.75% increase year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 16.44 billion yuan, 17.62 billion yuan, and 19.006 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 22%, 23%, and 16% compared to previous estimates. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 for 2025-2027 [4][17].

Group 1 - The A-share market's non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases, including Xiaocheng Technology rising nearly 14% and multiple companies hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, non-ferrous metal commodity prices are on an upward trend, contributing to the profitability of the industry. Over 60% of listed companies in this sector reported year-on-year earnings growth, and 90% achieved positive net profits [1] - The outlook for the second half of the year remains optimistic regarding gold and copper price trends, suggesting that the strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector may continue [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include Xiaocheng Technology with a market cap of 6.151 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.87%, and Xibu Gold with a market cap of 20 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.86% [2] - Other companies such as Shengda Resources, Hunan Silver, and Huayu Mining also reported significant stock price increases, with year-to-date gains ranging from approximately 39.21% to 152.90% [2] - The overall market capitalization of the non-ferrous metal sector companies reflects strong investor interest, with several companies exceeding market caps of 100 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with significant increases in net profit and production across various segments, despite a decline in revenue year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 8.724 billion yuan, up 55.08% year-on-year [1]. Production and Pricing - The company exceeded production targets across all product lines, with copper production reaching 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68%, achieving 56% of the annual plan - Cobalt production was 61,100 tons, up about 13.05% year-on-year - Prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and phosphate fertilizers increased in the first half of 2025, with the average price of copper on the London Metal Exchange at $9,431 per ton, up 3.75% year-on-year [2]. Expansion Plans - The company is preparing for a new round of expansion projects at its main copper and cobalt mines, TFM and KFM - TFM has an annual production capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, while KFM has a capacity of over 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt - The five-year plan aims to achieve annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons of copper and 90,000 to 100,000 tons of cobalt by 2028 [3]. Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about future copper price increases, supported by macroeconomic factors and improving domestic demand - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the end of inventory accumulation due to previous tariffs are seen as positive indicators for copper prices [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the strong performance in the first half of 2025, the company has raised its full-year production expectations - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 16.4 billion, 17.6 billion, and 19 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 22%, 23%, and 16% - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs research indicates investor optimism regarding China's GDP growth target for 2025, with short-term export expectations raised and accelerated fiscal measures, leading to increased attention on cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has weakened the US dollar, combined with stable performance in the domestic commodity market, benefiting the A-share non-ferrous sector [1] - China and Thailand's non-ferrous sector highlights tight cobalt raw material supply, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota policy potentially leading to a supply vacuum in Q4, reinforcing expectations for rising cobalt prices and boosting related non-ferrous products [1] Group 2 - Minmetals Securities notes that the Australian mining sector's Q2 2025 financial report shows that cost reduction in the non-ferrous metal industry has reached a bottleneck, necessitating attention to corporate decision-making changes affecting Australian lithium supply and costs, as well as the impact of changes in demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage on lithium prices and production decisions [2] - GF Securities focuses on changes in the molybdenum industry landscape, suggesting that the collaboration between Jinchuan Group and Zijin Mining to develop the world-class Shapingou molybdenum project will restructure the global molybdenum resource distribution system, with Zijin Mining holding 60% of the adjusted equity structure, potentially having a profound impact on the supply side of the molybdenum industry chain [2] Group 3 - Related products include various ETFs such as Non-ferrous ETF Fund (159880), Photovoltaic ETF Fund (159863), and Semiconductor ETF (159813), among others [3] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and Tianqi Lithium (002466), among others [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].