各位投资者 大家下午好我是华安石影的分析师罗又文那接下来给大家汇报一下东鹏饮料的一个出海专题我们其实从去年二月开始就一直推荐东鹏饮料那么出海专题是我们的第三篇深度 前面两篇一个是在去年2月份发的这个拥抱极致性价比与下沉时代然后还有一篇是在去年8月份发的这个再看东铜如何看齐未来成长那么这两篇深度呢主要是认为性价比和这个下沉市场是重大的一个消费趋势的一个转变那么东铜凭借这个极致性价比的产品和营销以及渠道的无私交的一个竞争力有望抓住这个灵活就业人群的一个扩容还有各行业内卷 以及性价比下沉市场的这种全球化的一个时代机遇那么它的主业我们认为能力有1万是超过红牛另外的话公司的数字化能力也非常突出所以地道曲线这些新品对于它来说其实是一个向上的一个期权市场需求好的话可以快速翻案不好也可以做到不亏钱当时也看到了这个摩舍拉已经起来了所以我们认为是可以给地道曲线固执的 另外的话在第二天宣布的时候我们也研究了这个泰国和美国的一个市场以及当地的几家能量饮料企业的打法也提到了这个东棚的一个出海的机会但是当时没有具体的去给这个预测和估值我们当时也是认为这个出海的战略的拐点要等到这个海外的见证但是十一十二月份随着这个东棚的海南以及印银工厂的 ...

投资逻辑 全球能量饮料赛道以五年销量 CAGR 11.6%领跑软饮增长，红牛、 Monster 双雄营收均破 500 亿印证品类爆发力。本文聚焦品类扩张 优势、龙头成功路径及东鹏出海机遇展开深入讨论。 1、为什么能量饮料品类可以走出去？1）需求刚性：全球经济增速 换挡，劳动时间延长、强度提升催生刚需，品类渗透率持续提升。 2）普适性基因：甜味/果味基底适配全球味觉，本土化改良后文化 兼容性强。3）马太效应：功能依赖+品牌复利构筑护城河，龙头凭 借供应链/渠道/品牌优势实现挤压式增长，集中度不断提升。 2、红牛和 Monster 出海分别做对了什么？1）红牛：首创能量饮 料新品类，抢占市场先机。奥地利红牛率先进行包装和定位的本土 化改造，辅以极限运动+音乐赛事营销构建品牌生态系统，欧洲样 板市场验证后向全球覆盖。2）Monster：后来者通过差异化战略实 现逆袭。产品以 16oz 大包装主打性价比、品牌以魔爪图腾强调狂 野和自我、渠道借力可口可乐分销网络、产品研发重视细分需求。 3、当下能量饮料出海红利在何处？亚太区域具备坚实的消费者基 础，劳动密集型产业聚集，人口基数度大，在红牛此前教育下品类 认知度高。具体 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 15.72-16.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%-43%. The Q4 revenue is projected to be 3.162-3.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.6%-35.1% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.15-3.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54%-69%. For Q4, the net profit is expected to be 440-740 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%-93.4% [2][5]. - The company is focusing on a cost-effective product strategy, which has led to stable growth in sales of its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink. The electrolyte water segment is also experiencing high demand, with significant sales growth anticipated for the "Supplement Water" product line in 2024 [10]. - The company is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, leveraging its product strength and competitive pricing to capture market share in regions with a strong demand for energy drinks [10]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 15.969 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 7.206 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 45% [14]. - The estimated net profit for 2024 is 3.301 billion yuan, with an EPS of 6.35 yuan, and the company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of approximately 20.7% [14]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 19.5 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.8% [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.72-16.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40-43% [1] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is between 3.15-3.45 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 54%-69% [1] - The company emphasizes "sales-driven operations" as a core strategy for 2024, focusing on national expansion and channel management [1] - The company is actively exploring product diversification and new growth points while maintaining steady growth in its flagship product [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 8.51 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.89%, and is projected to reach 15.96 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 41.67% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1.44 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.27 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 60.40% [4] - The company has a total production capacity exceeding 3.35 million tons, supporting its product development and expansion [2] Product Strategy - The company continues to solidify its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, while diversifying its product line with new offerings such as electrolyte water and coffee drinks [2] - The "1+6" product strategy aims to enhance product variety and market presence [2] Market Expansion - The company is pursuing international market opportunities, including a joint venture in Indonesia with an investment of up to 200 million USD [2] - The company aims to strengthen its overseas market presence amid increasing competition in the functional beverage sector [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned from a single product focus to a diversified beverage group, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.9% in revenue from 2019 to 2023, with revenue reaching 11.26 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34] - The energy drink market in China is expanding, with significant growth potential in the younger demographic, and the company is well-positioned to capture this market [6][42] - The company is leveraging digital transformation and a robust marketing strategy to enhance brand recognition and market share [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix centered around energy drinks, with significant revenue growth from 4.21 billion yuan in 2019 to 11.26 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34] - The company has established a national sales network covering 3.6 million active stores, reflecting a 9.09% year-on-year increase [6][15] 2. Market Performance - The energy drink market in China was valued at 57.57 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 11.8% from 2013 to 2028 [42] - The company has achieved a market share of 43.02% in the energy drink segment, ranking first in sales volume [25][51] 3. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 16.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5% [16][150] - The net profit is expected to grow to 3.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 61% increase compared to the previous year [16][150] 4. Product Strategy - The company has implemented a "1+6+N" multi-category strategy, introducing new products such as electrolyte drinks and low-sugar tea, which have shown significant revenue growth [6][25] - The electrolyte drink "Brew Water" achieved a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 292% increase year-on-year [6][16] 5. International Expansion - The company plans to establish a production base in Indonesia to enhance its presence in the Southeast Asian market, which is expected to reach a market size of 2.64 billion USD by 2025 [6][125] - The company has already entered 23 countries and regions, with overseas revenue contributing 0.14% to total revenue in the first half of 2024 [6][142] 6. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 20.68 billion yuan and 25.18 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [16][150] - The report emphasizes the company's solid brand, product, and channel advantages, which create a robust competitive moat in the beverage industry [6][152]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Eastroc Beverage [5]. Core Insights - The report discusses the global expansion opportunities for Eastroc Beverage, highlighting the potential to recreate 1.5 times the Chinese market in Southeast Asia, with a focus on markets like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar [4][5]. - The company is preparing for international expansion by establishing an overseas division and local partnerships, with a focus on cost-effective production and localized product offerings [5]. - The long-term revenue potential is estimated at 400 billion RMB, with a profit target of 80 billion RMB, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15.8x [5]. Summary by Sections Global Expansion Potential - Southeast Asia's energy drink market is projected to reach 42 billion USD in 2024, approximately 300 billion RMB, which is about 49% of China's market size [14]. - The growth rate in Southeast Asia is higher than in China, with countries like Vietnam and Cambodia showing significant potential [14][20]. - The report identifies a dual opportunity in penetration and market structure, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia [15]. Company Behavior and Valuation Pricing - Eastroc is focusing on organizational readiness and resource allocation for its international strategy, with a short-term emphasis on establishing operational frameworks rather than immediate revenue generation [53]. - The company plans to build multiple factories to support its overseas operations, which will help reduce logistics costs and enhance competitiveness [56]. - The pricing strategy involves reverse pricing to ensure competitiveness against local and international brands, with a focus on high value for money [60]. Market Positioning - Eastroc is positioned as a cost-effective international brand compared to major competitors like Pepsi and local brands in Southeast Asia [45]. - The company aims to leverage its strengths in large packaging and convenience to capture market share in emerging markets [45][46]. - The report outlines a clear marketing strategy that includes sponsorships and social media promotions to enhance brand visibility [61]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates that Eastroc's international revenue could match its domestic sales in the long run, with significant growth expected from Southeast Asia and potential expansion into Middle Eastern and African markets [68]. - The estimated ceiling for overseas revenue is projected to reach 100 billion RMB, indicating substantial growth potential [72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.72 to 16.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 43% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 3.15 to 3.45 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 54% to 69% [4] - The company anticipates a strong performance in Q4 2024, with revenue expected to grow by 21% to 35% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its distribution channels and launching new products, including plans to enter overseas markets [7] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 8.505 billion yuan, increasing to an estimated 15.816 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.4% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 1.441 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.363 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 64.9% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.3% in 2022 to 45.8% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to increase from 16.9% to 21.3% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 2.77 yuan in 2022 to 6.47 yuan in 2024 [9] Product Performance - The energy drink segment is expected to continue its strong growth, with an estimated increase of around 30% in 2024 due to a growing consumer base and effective marketing strategies [5] - The new electrolyte water product is also showing strong growth potential, contributing to the overall revenue increase [5] - The market share dynamics are shifting, with Dongpeng gaining ground while Red Bull's share is slightly declining [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 157.2 to 161 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 43% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is between 31.5 to 34.5 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 54% to 69% [5] - The company has shown strong cash collection performance, with over 200 billion yuan in sales cash receipts for the year, a 43.9% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its product lines and market presence, particularly with its "Bup Shui La" product, which has seen significant growth [7] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Expected revenue for 2024 is between 157.2 to 161 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 40% to 43% [5] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders is between 31.5 to 34.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 54% to 69% [5] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 21% for 2024, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product Performance - The "Dongpeng Special Drink" is expected to see double-digit growth in Q4 2024, driven by increased distribution and sales efforts [7] - The "Bup Shui La" product has achieved a revenue of 12.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 292% year-on-year increase [7] Supply Chain and Market Expansion - The company is enhancing its supply chain capabilities, with new production bases in Tianjin and Changsha to support market penetration in northern China and Southeast Asia [8][10] - Plans for a new production base in Hainan are underway, which will facilitate exports to Southeast Asia [10][11] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 6.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39x [12] - The forecasted return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is 38.47% [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately 157.2 to 161.0 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 31.5 to 34.5 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 54% to 69% [5]. - The report highlights strong sales momentum and a rapid delivery schedule, predicting cash receipts to exceed 60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of over 60% year-on-year [5]. - The company is benefiting from a favorable cost structure and scale effects, with an expected net profit margin for Q4 2024 ranging from 14.0% to 21.0%, which is an improvement of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Forecast Summary Revenue and Profitability - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 11,262.79 - 2024E: 15,968.63 - 2025E: 20,853.17 - 2026E: 25,461.72 - Revenue Growth Rate: - 2023A: 32.42% - 2024E: 41.78% - 2025E: 30.59% - 2026E: 22.10% - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,039.77 - 2024E: 3,268.41 - 2025E: 4,477.47 - 2026E: 5,539.68 - Net Profit Growth Rate: - 2023A: 41.60% - 2024E: 60.23% - 2025E: 36.99% - 2026E: 23.72% [2][7]. Key Financial Ratios - Gross Margin: - 2023A: 43.07% - 2024E: 45.20% - 2025E: 45.70% - 2026E: 45.70% - PE Ratio: - 2023A: 62.92 - 2024E: 39.26 - 2025E: 28.66 - 2026E: 23.17 [2][7]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating Cash Flow (in million yuan): - 2023A: 3,281.27 - 2024E: 4,144.40 - 2025E: 6,112.49 - 2026E: 6,937.59 - Total Assets (in million yuan): - 2023A: 14,710.05 - 2024E: 19,336.05 - 2025E: 26,768.03 - 2026E: 35,099.85 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.72-16.10 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.15-3.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54%-69% [5][6] - The company emphasizes a sales-driven approach to guide its operations, focusing on national expansion and refined channel management to enhance operational capabilities and product visibility [6] - The performance of sales cash collection exceeded expectations, indicating strong sales momentum and positive dealer payment enthusiasm [6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 15.90 billion, 20.37 billion, and 25.07 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.17%, 28.08%, and 23.12% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.28 billion, 4.40 billion, and 5.63 billion yuan, with growth rates of 60.99%, 34.07%, and 27.89% respectively [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 6.31, 8.47, and 10.83 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 39, 29, and 23 times [7][10] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 46.9% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 18.1% to 22.5% over the same period [13]