Market Overview - On February 2, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48%, with the CSI 300 down by 2.13%, the STAR Market 50 down by 3.88%, the CSI 1000 down by 3.39%, the ChiNext Index down by 2.46%, and the Hang Seng Index down by 2.23% [5][4] - The best-performing sectors on February 2 were food and beverage (+1.11%) and banking (+0.17%), while the worst-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (-7.62%), steel (-5.93%), basic chemicals (-5.69%), coal (-5.64%), and oil and petrochemicals (-5.51%) [5][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 2 was 26,066 billion yuan, with net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 1.907 billion HKD [5][4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Dongpeng Beverage (605499) as a leading player in the energy drink sector, with clear growth drivers for 2026, including stable growth in specialty drinks, new product launches, and channel deepening [6][6] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15%-20% in 2026, driven by its core specialty drink products and strong brand positioning [6][7] - Revenue projections for Dongpeng Beverage are estimated at 20,948.13 million yuan for 2025, 26,103.01 million yuan for 2026, and 31,763.13 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profit estimates of 4,509.80 million yuan, 5,750.23 million yuan, and 7,141.71 million yuan [6][7] Important Insights - The report discusses the implications of the EU's antitrust actions against Booking, which has seen its market share increase from approximately 60% in 2013 to over 71% in 2023, despite regulatory changes [9][10] - Investment opportunities are identified in Booking's strong market position and its shift towards a merchant model, while competitors like Expedia and Airbnb are adapting their strategies to maintain market relevance [10][10] - Catalysts for growth include the transition to a merchant model, leveraging Google advertising for traffic acquisition, and utilizing membership programs to enhance customer engagement [10][10]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage's IPO in Hong Kong is driven by a clear capital layout logic and long-term investment value, aiming to become the first "A+H" dual-listed functional beverage company in China [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO is set to launch on February 3, 2026, with a maximum issue price of HKD 248 per share and an entry fee of HKD 25,000 per lot, marking the largest issuance in the Asian beverage sector since 2020 [1] - The IPO aims to raise approximately HKD 99.94 billion, with a base offering of 40.89 million shares, providing substantial capital for future growth [3] Group 2: Investor Interest - The IPO has attracted significant interest from global capital, with 15 cornerstone investors committing over USD 600 million, including notable entities like Qatar Investment Authority, Temasek, and Tencent [3] - Qatar Investment Authority's participation marks its first investment in an A+H IPO and the largest single cornerstone investment in the consumer sector [3] Group 3: Growth Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage's growth is underpinned by a "1+6" multi-category strategy, focusing on core products, emerging products, and a robust pipeline of new offerings [4] - The flagship product, Dongpeng Energy Drink, has maintained its position as the top-selling energy drink in China since 2021, with projected revenues of CNY 125.63 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a nearly 20% year-on-year growth [4] Group 4: Product Expansion - The newly launched Dongpeng Water has quickly become the leading brand in China's electrolyte beverage market, achieving revenues of CNY 28.47 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 134.78% increase year-on-year [5] - The company is also expanding into the fruit tea market with products like Guozhi Tea and Hongshi Milk Tea, which are expected to broaden its consumer base [5] Group 5: Operational Strength - Dongpeng Beverage has established a comprehensive production network with 14 production bases across various regions, enhancing supply chain efficiency and product freshness [8] - The company has achieved 100% coverage of all prefecture-level cities in China, with over 3,200 distributors and more than 4.3 million active sales points [9] Group 6: Digital Transformation - The company has implemented a digital management platform that enables real-time tracking of supply chain data, enhancing operational efficiency and market responsiveness [12] - Dongpeng Beverage has entered over 30 countries, establishing subsidiaries in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia, marking significant progress in its global expansion [12] Group 7: Future Outlook - The funds raised from the IPO will be directed towards capacity and supply chain upgrades, brand development, and international market expansion, facilitating Dongpeng Beverage's global strategy [10] - The dual listing is expected to optimize the investor structure and enhance international capital support, aiding in the establishment of overseas supply chains and sales networks [12]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6655509 | 东鹏饮料 | 257.00 | 2.74% | 3.23万 | | 8.37 乙 | | 920786 | 骑士乳业 | 10.84 | 1.40% | 16.74万 | 1.81亿 | | | 605179 | 一鸣食品 | 20.81 | 1.36% | 7.34万 | | 1.54亿 | | 603711 | 香飘飘 | 13.44 | 1.36% | 5.29万 | 7174.46万 | | | 300997 | 欢乐家 | 23.89 | 1.14% | 12.14万 | | 2.95 Z | | 300898 | 熊猫乳品 | 28.69 | 0.46% | 5.71万 | | 1.66亿 | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | 26.45 | 0.42% | 74.10万 | | 19.75亿 | | 300106 | 西部牧业 | 11.13 | 0.18% | 11.20万 | | 1.26亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic energy drink market, with stable growth in specialty drinks, new product launches, and channel deepening driving performance beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Dimension - The functional beverage sector is experiencing high growth potential, with energy drinks expected to maintain a CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2029 [22][15] - The energy drink market is projected to reach a retail value of 122.2 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 9.7% year-on-year [22] - The sports drink segment is also on a growth trajectory, with an expected CAGR of 12.2% from 2025 to 2029, reaching 629 billion yuan in 2025 [26] Channel Dimension - The company has expanded its terminal network to over 4.3 million points of sale, enhancing product availability and consumer reach [48] - The deployment of ice cabinets has been increased to optimize product display and stimulate immediate consumption, with an expected 100,000 cabinets in the next 3-5 years [48][49] - Digital supply chain systems are utilized to maintain high turnover rates and enhance sales efficiency across channels [53] Product Dimension - The company's "1+6" product strategy is clear, with energy drinks providing a stable revenue base and new categories like sugar-free tea and instant coffee expected to contribute to future growth [57][61] - The energy drink segment is anticipated to grow by 15%-20% in 2026, supported by strong market penetration and brand loyalty [57] - The company has established a strong brand presence in the hydration segment, with significant market share in key regions and ongoing expansion opportunities [59][60] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.95 billion, 26.10 billion, and 31.76 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.3%, 24.6%, and 21.7% respectively [5][10] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 4.50 billion, 5.75 billion, and 7.14 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35.6%, 27.5%, and 24.2% [5][10] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of 172.5 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of around 30% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic energy drink market, with stable growth in specialty drinks, new product launches, and channel deepening driving performance beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Dimension - The functional beverage sector is experiencing high growth potential, with energy drinks expected to maintain a CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2029 [22] - The energy drink market is projected to reach a retail value of 122.2 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 9.7% year-on-year [22] - The sports drink segment is also on a growth trajectory, with an expected CAGR of 12.2% from 2025 to 2029, reaching 997 billion yuan [26] Channel Dimension - The company has expanded its sales network to over 4.3 million points of sale, with ongoing efforts to penetrate both domestic and provincial markets [3][48] - The deployment of ice cabinets has been a key strategy to enhance product visibility and stimulate immediate consumption, with an expected increase in the number of ice cabinets to 100,000 within 3-5 years [48][49] - Digital supply chain systems are utilized to maintain high turnover rates and optimize promotional strategies across channels [53] Product Dimension - The company's "1+6" product strategy is clear, with energy drinks providing a stable revenue base and new categories like sugar-free tea and ready-to-drink coffee expected to contribute to future growth [57][61] - The energy drink segment is anticipated to grow by 15%-20% in 2026, supported by strong market presence and competitive pricing [57] - The company has established a strong brand presence in the hydration segment, with significant market share in key regions and ongoing expansion opportunities [59][60] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.95 billion, 26.10 billion, and 31.76 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.3%, 24.6%, and 21.7% respectively [5][10] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 4.5 billion, 5.75 billion, and 7.14 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35.6%, 27.5%, and 24.2% respectively [5][10] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of 172.5 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of around 30% [5]

目前，东鹏饮料全国化产能布局，已形成高密度、均衡化生产网络。近年，东鹏饮料平均每年新增2个生产基地，目前已有10个基地顺利投产。2026年1月23 日，成都生产基地项目正式签约，总占地约280亩、计划投资10亿元建设6条高端生产线，建成后将成为现代化综合基地，大幅提升西南及全国供应能力。科 学有序的产能扩张，有效控制物流成本、缩短配送时间、保障产品新鲜度，为全渠道供货提供坚实支撑，也为全球化战略奠定产能基础。 亮眼的业绩表现、深度的数字化转型与完善的渠道网络，共同构成东鹏饮料的核心竞争力，成为其奔赴港股、走向全球的底气。2025年，东鹏饮料交出惊艳 答卷，预计全年营业收入207.6-211.2亿元，同比增长31.07%-33.34%；预计归母净利润43.4-45.9亿元，同比增幅达30.46%-37.97%，首次迈入年营收200亿阵 营。在全球饮料行业增长放缓、国内消费市场复苏背景下，这样的高速增长，既印证企业实力，也彰显中国功能饮料赛道潜力，吸引全球资本关注。 更为亮眼的是，东鹏饮料成功培育出第二增长曲线，电解质饮料"东鹏补水啦"异军突起，这款2023年1月上市的产品，据尼尔森数据显示，仅用两年多时间 便登 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）跟踪点评 强推（维持） 携手三林共拓印尼，海外扩张更进一步 目标价：340 元 事项： 评论 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,839 | 20,932 | 26,110 | 30,621 | | 同比增速(%) | 40.6% | 32.2% | 24.7% | 17.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,326 | 4,486 | 5,702 | 6,860 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.1% | 34.9% | 27.1% | 20.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 6.40 | 8.63 | 10.97 | 13.19 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 29 | 23 | 19 | | 市净率(倍) | 16.9 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价 公司研究 非 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）跟踪点评 强推（维持） 携手三林共拓印尼，海外扩张更进一步 目标价：340 元 事项： 评论 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,839 | 20,932 | 26,110 | 30,621 | | 同比增速(%) | 40.6% | 32.2% | 24.7% | 17.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,326 | 4,486 | 5,702 | 6,860 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.1% | 34.9% | 27.1% | 20.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 6.40 | 8.63 | 10.97 | 13.19 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 29 | 23 | 19 | | 市净率(倍) | 16.9 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价 证券分析师： ...

2026年2月3日，东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"东鹏饮料"）将在港交所上会。上市成功后，东鹏饮料将实现"A+H"上市。 东鹏饮料，公司位于广东省深圳市，是中国第一的功能饮料企业，收入增速在全球前20大上市软饮企业中位列第一。 主要财务数据 主要财务数据报告期内（2022年至2025年三季度），东鹏饮料的收入分别为85亿元、112.57亿元、158.3亿元、168.38亿元；期内利润分别为14.41亿元、 20.4亿元、33.26亿元、37.6亿元。 | | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | 截至9月30日止九個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | | | | | (人民幣百萬元) | | | | | | | | (未經濟計) | | | 收入 | 124,826.2 | 110,860.7 | 137,946.9 | 96,775.1 | 111,790.0 | | 営業成本 | (102,987.1) | (107,414.8) | (111,666.5) ...

Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].