Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.848 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 980 million yuan, up 47.61% year-on-year [2][5] - The company continues to deepen its market presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system and business team outside the province, indicating strong growth potential for its energy drinks nationwide [5] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 11.263 billion yuan - 2024A: 15.839 billion yuan - 2025E: 21.527 billion yuan - 2026E: 27.832 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.390 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2023A: 32.4% - 2024A: 40.6% - 2025E: 35.9% - 2026E: 29.3% - 2027E: 27.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2023A: 2.040 billion yuan - 2024A: 3.327 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.636 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.231 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.229 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023A: 41.6% - 2024A: 63.1% - 2025E: 39.4% - 2026E: 34.4% - 2027E: 32.1% [4] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023A to 48.2% in 2027E [4] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation Metrics - Projected EPS for the company is as follows: - 2025E: 8.92 yuan - 2026E: 11.98 yuan - 2027E: 15.82 yuan - Corresponding P/E ratios based on the closing price of 280.8 yuan per share on April 18, 2025, are projected at: - 2025E: 31.49 - 2026E: 23.44 - 2027E: 17.75 [5][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 4.848 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 980 million yuan, up 47.61% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain good growth in the energy drink market nationwide, supported by its pricing and channel advantages [5] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 11.263 billion yuan - 2024A: 15.839 billion yuan - 2025E: 21.527 billion yuan - 2026E: 27.832 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.390 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2023A: 32.4% - 2024A: 40.6% - 2025E: 35.9% - 2026E: 29.3% - 2027E: 27.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023A: 2.040 billion yuan - 2024A: 3.327 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.636 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.231 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.229 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023A: 41.6% - 2024A: 63.1% - 2025E: 39.4% - 2026E: 34.4% - 2027E: 32.1% [4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023A to 48.2% in 2027E [4] - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 32.3% in 2023A to 60.4% in 2027E [4] - Earnings per Share (EPS) projections are as follows: - 2023A: 3.92 yuan - 2024A: 6.40 yuan - 2025E: 8.92 yuan - 2026E: 11.98 yuan - 2027E: 15.82 yuan [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth based on its competitive advantages in pricing and distribution channels. The projected PE ratios for 2025 are 31, 23, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on an estimated equity value of 167.2 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a forecasted revenue increase for 2025-2026 and projected earnings per share of 9.13, 11.85, and 13.79 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of new product channel reuse and sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3][15]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][15]. Product Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The revenue from the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, was 39 billion CNY, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink revenue surged by 261.5% [9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has demonstrated strong growth in various regions, with notable increases in revenue from the Southwest (61.78%) and North China (71.67%) [9]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust distribution network, with 4 million terminal points enhancing its market reach and product availability [9].

从指数持仓来看，上证180行业分层等权重指数十大权重分别为：保利发展（4.43%）、张江高科 （4.26%）、中国电信（2.85%）、中国移动（2.53%）、中国联通（2.42%）、中国卫通（2.16%）、中 国石油（1.13%）、东鹏饮料（1.11%）、中国神华（1.1%）、中国海油（1.08%）。 从上证180行业分层等权重指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 数据统计显示，上证180行业分层等权重指数近一个月下跌3.04%，近三个月上涨0.81%，年至今下跌 2.88%。 据了解，上证180等权重指数和行业分层等权重指数均与上证180指数拥有相同的样本，前者采用等权重 加权方式，使得个券与行业权重分布更为均匀；后者采用行业分层等权重加权方式，先将行业等权，然 后将行业内的各个样本再等权。二者均与上证180指数呈现出不同的风险收益特征，以满足投资者日益 多元化的投资选择。该指数以2002年06月28日为基日，以3299.06点为基点。 从上证180行业分层等权重指数持仓样本的行业来看，通信服务占比9.96%、主要消费占比9.64%、信息 技术占比9.60%、原材料占比9.32%、金融 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% compared to the market index [10]. Core Insights - The March retail sales data exceeded expectations, with a total of 40,940 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, driven by the effects of the "old-for-new" policy [5]. - The restaurant sector showed strong resilience, with March dining revenue reaching 4,235 billion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [6]. - The report highlights specific investment opportunities in various segments, including high-performance liquor brands and efficient dairy producers, as well as emerging snack and beverage companies [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown mixed performance over different time frames, with a decline of 2.9% over the last month and a 5.7% increase over the last three months, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 5.6% in the last month but increased by 5.8% over the last year [1]. Retail Sales Data - In the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 124,671 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The significant growth in retail sales of optional consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, was noted, with increases of 35.1%, 29.5%, and 28.6% respectively [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends specific companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor, which are expected to show high performance due to low base effects [7]. - In the dairy sector, companies like Modern Farming and Youran Dairy are highlighted for their cost efficiency and production advantages [7]. - The snack food segment is also seen as having growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Wancheng Group and Youyou Foods, which are expected to benefit from channel expansions and new product categories [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 315 RMB, compared to the last closing price of 275 RMB [1][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a strong start in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 4.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, and a net profit of 980 million RMB, up 47.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the special beverage segment and the continued success of the "Beverage" product line, which saw significant year-on-year increases [5][7]. - The company is focusing on national expansion and has made progress in its platform-based growth strategy, with plans for international market entry, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [7][8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 44.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to economies of scale and declining raw material costs [6]. - The net profit margin also improved, reaching 20.2%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]. - The company aims for revenue and profit growth of no less than 20% for 2025, with a strong focus on expanding its product offerings and market reach [7][8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21 billion RMB, 26.2 billion RMB, and 31.3 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 25%, and 19% respectively [8][9]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 4.6 billion RMB, 5.9 billion RMB, and 7 billion RMB, with growth rates of 37%, 29%, and 20% respectively [8][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance relative to the market, with a projected PE ratio of 31, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [8] Core Views - The company has achieved high growth in performance, with a revenue of 4.848 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, up 47.62% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's strategy of "nationalization + multi-category" is effectively driving growth, particularly in energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, with significant revenue increases in emerging markets [3][9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company's main business revenue was primarily from energy drinks, generating 3.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.71%, accounting for 80.50% of total revenue [3] - Electrolyte beverage revenue reached 570 million yuan, up 261.46% year-on-year, increasing its share to 11.76% [3] - Other beverage sales amounted to 375 million yuan, a 72.62% increase year-on-year, contributing 7.74% to total revenue [3] Regional Performance - The company successfully expanded into emerging markets such as North China and Southwest regions, with North China achieving sales of 746 million yuan, up 71.67% year-on-year, and Southwest region revenue of 623 million yuan, up 61.78% [3] - Revenue from Guangdong was 1.125 billion yuan, a 21.58% increase year-on-year, but its share decreased to 23.22% [3] Profitability - The gross margin increased by 1.70 percentage points to 44.47% in Q1 2025, primarily due to lower raw material prices and economies of scale [4] - The net profit margin rose by 1.14 percentage points to 20.21% [4] Financial Forecast - The company aims for over 20% growth in revenue and net profit for 2025, with projected net profits of 4.029 billion yuan, 4.937 billion yuan, and 6.107 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 7.75 yuan, 9.49 yuan, and 11.74 yuan for the same years [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [8] Core Views - The company has achieved high growth in performance, with a revenue of 4.848 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, up 47.62% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's strategy of "nationalization + multi-category" is effectively driving growth, particularly in energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, with significant revenue increases in emerging markets [3][9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company's main business revenue was primarily from energy drinks, generating 3.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.71%, accounting for 80.50% of total revenue. Electrolyte drinks saw revenue of 570 million yuan, up 261.46%, and other beverages generated 375 million yuan, up 72.62% [3] - The company successfully expanded into new markets such as North China and Southwest China, with North China revenue reaching 746 million yuan, a 71.67% increase year-on-year, and Southwest revenue at 623 million yuan, up 61.78% [3] Profitability - The gross margin increased by 1.70 percentage points to 44.47% in Q1 2025, primarily due to lower raw material prices and economies of scale. The net profit margin also rose by 1.14 percentage points to 20.21% [4] - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth of over 20% in 2025, with projected net profits of 4.029 billion yuan, 4.937 billion yuan, and 6.107 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.839 billion yuan, 20.154 billion yuan, 25.151 billion yuan, and 30.742 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 40.63%, 27.24%, 24.79%, and 22.23% [4][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 6.40 yuan, 7.75 yuan, 9.49 yuan, and 11.74 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35.80, 29.56, 24.12, and 19.50 [12]

2025 年 4 月 17 日 公司研究 25 年开局表现亮眼，电解质饮料持续放量，全国化扩张步伐稳健 ——东鹏饮料（605499.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：267.58 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523877 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1391.44 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 142.14/278.49 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 30.53% | 股价相对走势 -11% 14% 40% 65% 90% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 东鹏饮料 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

事件：公司发布2025 年第一季度报告，实现营业收入48.48 亿元，同比增长39.23%；实现归母净利润 9.80 亿元，同比增长47.62%；实现扣非净利润9.59 亿元，同比增长53.55%。 能量饮料持续增长，新品收入增长亮眼。 盈利预测及投资评级：核心产品东鹏特饮凭借"精准定位+高效触达"策略，收入持续增长。电解质饮 料"东鹏补水啦"持续高增。我们预计公司2025-27年实现营收207.8/253.8/300.7 亿元，同比增长31.2% /22.1%/18.5% ， 实现归母净利润44.3/54.2/64.9 亿元，同比增长33.3%/22.3%/19.8%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、新品推广不及预期、原材料价格大幅波动等。 2）分区域看：25Q1 广东区域实现收入11.3 亿元，同比增长21.6%，我们预计主要系新产品渠道复用增 长带动；华东/华中/广西/西南/华北区域分别实现收入6.6/6.8/3.8/6.2/7.5 亿元， 分别同比增长 30.8%/28.6%/31.9%/61.8%/71.7%。广东省外其他区域规模仍持续增长。线上/重客及其他收入分别实现 1.0/5.3 ...