Summary of Zoomlion Heavy Industry Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157.HK) - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Date of Call**: March 26, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Position - Zoomlion anticipates a **higher overseas revenue mix** in fiscal year 2025 (F25) through market share gains with **customized and localized products** [3][9] - The company is focusing on **key clients**, ensuring **short after-sales lead times**, and expanding its **overseas network** with over **100 sales/service outlets** in Europe, the US, Latin America, and Africa [3][9] Domestic Market Performance - A **gradual recovery** is expected in the domestic market for F25, with **stable market share** in crane and concrete machinery [4][9] - Continued sales growth is anticipated from **earth-working and agricultural machinery**, driven by new product launches such as **micro excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders** [4][9] Financial Projections - The company has communicated targets of **flat domestic revenue** and **20% growth in overseas revenue** for F25, although no quantified guidance was provided [9][10] - Operating cash flow (OCF) is expected to improve due to **higher overseas sales**, **de-stocking**, and **accelerated accounts receivable turnover** in both domestic and overseas markets [5][9] Inventory and Manufacturing - F25 inventory is projected to decline sharply due to **intelligent manufacturing** and the establishment of **overseas bonded warehouses** [5][9] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include **lower-than-expected infrastructure and property investment growth** and **lower overseas demand** [13][9] - Conversely, there may be **stronger-than-expected replacement demand** driven by emissions standard upgrades and increased demand for excavators and aerial work platform products [13][9] Valuation and Stock Rating - The stock is rated as **Equal-weight** with a price target of **HK$5.00**, reflecting a **21% downside** from the closing price of **HK$6.32** on March 24, 2025 [10][9] Conclusion - Zoomlion Heavy Industry is strategically positioning itself for growth in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on product innovation and customer service. However, it faces challenges that could impact its growth trajectory in the coming fiscal year.

Group 1 - The rental index for aerial work platforms in February 2025 is projected to be 350 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.4% but a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1] - Excavator sales in March 2025 are expected to reach 28,500 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with domestic sales of 18,500 units (up 22% year-on-year) and exports of 10,000 units (up 2% year-on-year) [1] - Cumulative excavator domestic sales from January to March 2025 are projected at 35,545 units (up 34% year-on-year), while cumulative exports are expected to be 24,737 units (up 5% year-on-year), indicating a marginal recovery in both domestic and international demand [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities predicts that the improvement in excavator sales is primarily due to the replacement of aging equipment, as the previous upcycle lasted from 2015 to 2023, with an average lifespan of 8-10 years for excavators [1] - The financial environment has improved since Q4 2024, providing support for both existing and new projects, which is expected to further bolster demand for excavators [1] - The report anticipates that high growth in water conservancy investment will support small excavators, while stabilization in real estate and infrastructure development will benefit medium-sized excavators, and stable demand from mining will support large excavators [1] Group 3 - Pacific Securities reports that the export data for excavator products in January and February 2025 continues to show high year-on-year growth, contributing significantly to the profits of major manufacturers [2] - The positive trend in exports is expected to enhance profit margins for manufacturers, with a favorable overseas demand environment anticipated to positively impact their performance [2] - The engineering machinery sector is viewed positively by the market, with expectations of continued growth in exports and overall industry performance [2] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the engineering machinery sector include Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), China Longgong (03339), First Tractor Company (00038), Sany International (00631), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery (601717), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951), Weichai Power (000338), and Sany International (02155) [3]

Group 1 - The establishment of Zhonglian Heavy Industry Mining Machinery (Changsha) Co., Ltd. has been reported, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [1] - The company is wholly owned by Zhonglian Heavy Industry, indicating a strong backing from the parent company [1] - The business scope includes a wide range of activities such as manufacturing and sales of mining machinery, mechanical equipment research and development, and various engineering services [1] Group 2 - The company will engage in the recycling and secondary utilization of used power batteries from new energy vehicles, which aligns with current trends in sustainability [1] - The operational activities also cover a variety of sectors including construction machinery, industrial robots, and specialized equipment manufacturing [1] - The comprehensive list of services and products indicates a strategic expansion into multiple facets of the machinery and equipment industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.20 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 7.71 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is effectively advancing its globalization strategy, with overseas revenue accounting for over 50% of total revenue [1][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 454.78 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 35.20 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.41% [7]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin improved to 28.2%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin overseas business [7]. - The company has established a strong presence in over 170 countries and has over 400 overseas outlets, with 11 localized manufacturing plants in various countries [7]. - The new segments, such as agricultural machinery and high-altitude machinery, are showing significant growth, contributing to the diversification of the company's product offerings [7]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 520.35 billion CNY in 2025 to 688.62 billion CNY in 2027, with compound annual growth rates of 14.42%, 14.86%, and 15.22% respectively [2][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 48.20 billion CNY in 2025 to 70.75 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2025 to 0.82 CNY in 2027 [2][12]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 14 times in 2025 to 9 times in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [2][12]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from the crane machinery segment is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 10% in 2025, followed by 15% in the subsequent years [8][10]. - The concrete machinery segment is anticipated to grow at a rate of 10% annually from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from a recovery in the domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors [8][10]. - The agricultural machinery segment is expected to see substantial growth, with a forecasted increase of 30% annually from 2025 to 2027 [10][12].

Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth Strategy - The company aims for a diversified, international, and digital transformation, with a focus on cultivating new growth curves, contributing to a sustainable development path [1][2] - By the end of 2024, the revenue contribution from the second growth curve has exceeded 48% [2] - The overseas revenue proportion has increased to over 51% in FY 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.37 percentage points [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Performance - The company has established a presence in over 40 key countries globally, with nearly 200 airports covered and over 400 various outlets in major cities [3] - The company’s concrete and lifting machinery segments have seen overseas revenue proportions surpassing 50% of their respective sales [2] - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings in overseas markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Central Asia, and emerging markets in Europe, South America, and Africa [3][10] Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Value Creation - Since its listing, the company has distributed dividends over 25 times, totaling approximately 26.3 billion yuan, with a historical overall dividend rate of about 43% [5] - In the past five years, the company has conducted significant share buybacks, totaling nearly 5 billion yuan [5] - For FY 2024, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan (including tax) per share [14] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The company anticipates stable growth in the engineering machinery export market in 2025, driven by strong demand in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [12] - The domestic engineering machinery market is expected to gradually stabilize and trend upwards in 2025 [12] - The company is focusing on high-end, green, digital, and intelligent product development to enhance its market position [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.3 CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 45.478 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 3.520 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.41% [2][4]. - The company has successfully diversified its product offerings and expanded its overseas operations, with overseas revenue growing over 30% year-on-year, now accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [7][8]. - Emerging business segments, including aerial work platforms and agricultural machinery, have shown significant growth, with revenues increasing by 19.74% and 122.29% respectively [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 11.092 billion CNY, down 4.05% year-on-year, with a net profit of 381 million CNY, down 41.42% [2][4]. - The company’s total assets are valued at 123.746 billion CNY, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 53.4% [8]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 51.433 billion CNY, 59.023 billion CNY, and 68.743 billion CNY respectively, with expected growth rates of 13.1%, 14.8%, and 16.5% [8]. Emerging Business Segments - The new business segments now account for 39.92% of total revenue, with significant contributions from high-altitude work platforms and agricultural machinery [7][8]. - The company has launched 40 new energy products, including the world's largest 150-ton distributed electric drive crawler crane [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the engineering machinery sector, leveraging its "end-to-end, digital, and localized" operational philosophy to accelerate global expansion [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to innovation, with ongoing investments in R&D and the introduction of intelligent machinery [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The agricultural machinery segment and overseas market performance are strong, leading to improved profitability [8] - The company reported a revenue of 454.78 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41% [5] - The report highlights a significant growth in agricultural machinery revenue, which increased by 122.29% year-on-year [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 53.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.1% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 48.49 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 37.7% [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was reported at 28.17%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [8] Business Performance - The engineering machinery revenue was 403.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%, while overseas revenue reached 233.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.58% [8] - The company has established a global service network with over 30 primary business airports and more than 390 secondary and tertiary outlets [8] - The company has successfully developed a domestic 120-ton electric drive dump truck, breaking the reliance on imports [8] Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 8.81%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.56 yuan [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is estimated at 14 times [7]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's net profit reached 4.009 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.31%, with a growth of 18.39% after excluding share-based payment impacts [3] - The gross profit margin was 28.17%, and the net profit margin was 8.81%, both showing improvements of 1.04 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points respectively [6] - The sales collection rate was 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Transformation - The company is accelerating its diversification, internationalization, and digital transformation, aiming to cultivate new growth curves [3] - The second growth curve's revenue contribution exceeded 48%, indicating reduced reliance on the domestic real estate sector [3] - The overseas revenue reached 23.38 billion CNY, accounting for over 50% of total revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of 59.25% over the past three years [3] Market Position - In the engineering crane sector, the company holds the top market share in the domestic 35-ton and 55-ton categories, with a 36% share in the 700-ton and above category [4] - The company is the leading player in the domestic concrete machinery market, ranking third globally (excluding CIFA) [4] - The company has established a strong presence in the overseas market, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, with significant market share growth [5] Innovation and R&D - Over the past three years, the company invested more than 10 billion CNY in R&D, with an R&D intensity of approximately 8% [6] - The company completed 224 new technology research projects focused on digitalization, intelligence, and greening [6] - The "Zhonglian Smart Industrial City" has been established as a benchmark for intelligent manufacturing in the global market [4] Strategic Goals - The company aims to enhance its global competitiveness in the high-end earthmoving machinery sector, targeting a top-three position in the industry [9] - The focus on digital transformation includes building a high-efficiency management system based on digital technologies [15] - The company plans to continue optimizing shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 3 CNY per 10 shares for 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 45.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.52 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year. Excluding share-based payment expenses, the net profit grew by 18.4% year-on-year [1]. - The engineering machinery segment generated revenue of 40.36 billion yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year, with traditional concrete machinery and lifting machinery revenues declining by 6.8% and 23.4% respectively. Despite these declines, the company maintained its leading position in the industry [2]. - The overseas market revenue reached 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, with overseas revenue accounting for 51.4% of total revenue, up 13.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 28.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 8.8%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.41 yuan [1][11]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 5.00 billion yuan and 6.22 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.58 yuan and 0.72 yuan [4][9]. Business Segments - The traditional business segments faced short-term pressure due to the real estate sector, but the company retained its industry-leading status in various categories, including concrete machinery and lifting machinery [2]. - Emerging business segments showed resilience, with earth-moving machinery revenue increasing by 0.34% to 6.67 billion yuan, and aerial work machinery revenue rising by 19.7% to 6.83 billion yuan. Agricultural machinery revenue surged by 122.3% to 4.65 billion yuan [2]. International Expansion - The company has diversified its international market presence, with over 4,400 local employees and more than 210 service parts warehouses globally. It has established 11 overseas production bases in eight countries, enhancing its international industrial ecosystem [3].

中联重科(000157)2024年年报点评：新兴潜力业务 稳健发展 海外市场持续突破 由于国内地产等需求持续拖累，混凝土机械与起重机械需求略弱于预期，我们随之下调公司25-26 年归母净利润预测12.0%/13.6%至50.0/62.2 亿元，引入27 年归母净利润73.5 亿元，对应25-27 年EPS 分 别为0.58/0.72/0.85 元。 公司新兴业务及海外出口潜力巨大，维持公司A 股和H 股"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险、下游景气度下行风险、海外出口不及预期风险 新兴业务稳健发展，传统优势业务市场地位保持稳固2024 年公司工程机械业务营收403.6 亿元，同 比下降9.3%。传统优势业务方面，公司混凝土机械营收80.1 亿元，同比下降6.8%；起重机械营收147.9 亿元，同比下降23.4%。受下游地产行业影响，公司传统业务短期承压，但仍维持了行业领先的地位。 公司200 吨级以上全地面起重机销量位居行业第一；25、35、55 吨级汽车起重机市场份额位列行业第 一；建筑起重机械销售规模稳居全球第一；混凝土机械长臂架泵车、车载泵、搅拌站市场份额持续稳居 行业第一；搅拌车市场份额保持行业 ...