Summary of Zoomlion Heavy Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK/000157 CH) - **Industry**: Machinery and Construction Equipment Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Outlook - **Profit Recovery**: Zoomlion's 4Q24 profit miss was attributed to foreign exchange losses and lack of disposal gain recognition. A 30% net profit growth is expected in 1Q25 due to positive domestic sales recovery [1][10] - **Sales Growth**: Domestic sales are projected to grow by 4% in 2025 after consecutive declines since 2021, driven by recovery in construction machinery and steady growth in agricultural and mining machines [2][10] - **Overseas Sales**: Contribution from overseas sales increased to 51% in 2024 from 6% in 2020, with a four-year CAGR of 57%. However, growth is expected to normalize to 15% in 2025 [3][10] Market Dynamics - **Sector Recovery**: The domestic recovery has expanded from excavators to concrete machines since March 2024, with key applications in farmland, water projects, and community renewal [2][10] - **Excavator Sales**: The 2025 domestic excavator sales volume is raised to 118k units (17% growth), with 70% driven by replacement demand [21][10] Profitability and Margins - **Profit Growth**: A 39% net profit growth is estimated for 2025, supported by a higher sales contribution from overseas business (32% gross margin) and reduced stock-based compensation expenses [4][10] - **Sales Contribution**: The company expects 10% sales growth in 2025, with a significant contribution from margin-accretive overseas business [4][10] Investment Recommendations - **Stock Ratings**: Maintain Buy on H-shares and Hold on A-shares, with target prices adjusted to HKD7.40 for H-shares and RMB8.90 for A-shares [5][10] - **Valuation**: H-shares trade below the historical average at 0.7x 2026e PB, indicating attractive valuation [5][10] Risks and Catalysts - **Risks**: Potential risks include weaker-than-expected residential property construction activity, price competition, and export sales moderation [46][10] - **Catalysts**: Anticipated catalysts include a potential profit beat in 1Q25 and better-than-expected machinery sales in 2Q25 [5][10] Additional Important Information - **Market Data**: As of March 31, 2025, the market cap is HKD66,258 million, with a free float of 48% for both H and A shares [7][10] - **Financial Estimates**: Revenue is projected to grow from CNY45,478 million in 2024 to CNY60,477 million by 2027, with a consistent increase in net profit [11][10] - **Sales by Segment**: Construction machinery accounts for 89% of sales, with concrete machinery and crane machinery being the largest segments [30][10] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Zoomlion Heavy Industry, highlighting its financial outlook, market dynamics, profitability, investment recommendations, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in semiconductor equipment due to tariff impacts [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of tariffs on the machinery equipment sector, particularly the 34% tariff on U.S. imports, which raises the total export tariff to the U.S. for engineering machinery to 79%. However, the actual impact on major companies is limited due to their low exposure to the U.S. market [1][2]. - The report identifies potential growth in domestic demand and the electric vehicle transition as key factors for the forklift segment, while also noting the limited impact of tariffs on exports [3]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, with a focus on both mature and advanced process equipment [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The report highlights that major engineering machinery companies have minimal exposure to the U.S. market, with SANY Heavy Industry at approximately 3% and XCMG at about 1% [1][2]. - Companies with overseas factories, particularly in North America and Mexico, are better positioned to mitigate tariff risks [2]. - The report recommends companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong for their strategic factory locations [2]. Forklifts - The report notes that domestic forklift manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, and the impact of tariffs is manageable due to pre-stocked inventory [3]. - It suggests that the domestic forklift market will see growth driven by the electric vehicle transition and government policies supporting domestic demand [3]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report indicates that the 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic production of semiconductor equipment, particularly in mature processes where price sensitivity is higher [4]. - It recommends focusing on companies involved in both front-end and back-end semiconductor equipment, highlighting firms like North China Innovation and Zhongwei Company [4]. General Automation - The report suggests that the general automation sector will see limited impact from tariffs, with a focus on domestic demand for tools and automation products [5][8]. - It highlights the recovery in manufacturing and logistics sectors as potential growth drivers for the general automation market [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a list of recommended companies across various segments, including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and general automation, emphasizing their potential for growth in the current market environment [1][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in semiconductor equipment due to tariff impacts [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of tariffs on the machinery equipment sector, particularly the 34% tariff on U.S. imports, which raises the total export tariff to the U.S. for engineering machinery to 79%. However, the actual impact on major companies is limited due to their low exposure to the U.S. market [1][2]. - The report identifies potential growth in domestic demand and the electric vehicle transition as key factors for the forklift segment, while also highlighting the importance of overseas factory layouts to mitigate tariff risks [3][4]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, with a focus on both mature and advanced process equipment [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The report notes that major engineering machinery companies have limited exposure to the U.S. market, with SANY Heavy Industry at approximately 3% and XCMG at about 1% [1][2]. - Companies with overseas factories, particularly in North America and Mexico, are better positioned to mitigate tariff risks [2]. - The report recommends companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong for their strategic factory locations [2]. Forklifts - The report indicates that domestic forklift exports to the U.S. will face a 79% tariff, but the impact is manageable due to low exposure and pre-stocked inventory [3]. - It highlights the potential for growth in the domestic market driven by policies supporting electric vehicle adoption and logistics industry upgrades [3]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report suggests that the 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic production of semiconductor equipment, particularly in mature processes where price sensitivity is higher [4]. - It recommends focusing on companies involved in both front-end and back-end semiconductor equipment, such as North China Innovation and Zhongwei Company [4]. General Automation - The report suggests that the general automation sector will see limited impact from tariffs, with a focus on domestic demand for tools and automation products [5][8]. - It highlights the recovery in manufacturing and logistics sectors as potential growth drivers for the automation industry [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a list of recommended companies across various segments, including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and general automation, emphasizing their strategic positions to capitalize on current market conditions [1][16].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming BAUMA 2025 exhibition in Munich, Germany, will showcase the strength and innovation of the global engineering machinery industry, with a significant representation from Changsha's engineering machinery sector [1][11]. Group 1: Participation and Historical Context - Major companies from Changsha, including SANY Group, Zoomlion, CRCC, Sunward Intelligent, and XCMG, will participate in BAUMA 2025, marking their continued presence on the global stage [3][12]. - Sunward Intelligent made a remarkable debut at the BAUMA exhibition in 2007, showcasing a 1,000 square meter booth and introducing the world's first excavator loader, which highlighted China's innovative potential in engineering machinery [3][12]. - In 2016, Zoomlion presented 23 types of equipment, receiving significant attention for its CE-certified products, which enhanced Changsha's global reputation in the engineering machinery sector [4][14]. Group 2: Innovations and Product Offerings - The 2025 exhibition will feature over 50% new products from participating companies, including excavators, concrete machinery, and lithium battery forklifts, tailored to meet European market standards [16]. - Zoomlion will showcase nearly 70 high-end products, including a 32-meter concrete mixing pump truck with advanced smart support features [16][19]. - Sunward Intelligent will present 25 cutting-edge devices, with a focus on electric excavators and a new series of rotary drilling rigs developed for the European market [18]. Group 3: Industry Development and Ecosystem - The Changsha engineering machinery industry has evolved significantly since the 1960s, becoming a prominent manufacturing cluster recognized as a national advanced manufacturing industry cluster [21][22]. - Currently, the Changsha engineering machinery supply chain consists of 516 upstream and downstream enterprises, covering 85% of the national engineering machinery product varieties [23]. - The local ecosystem supports both leading enterprises and numerous small and medium-sized enterprises, fostering collaboration and innovation within the industry [24][25].

Group 1 - The core strategy of Zoomlion has shifted towards globalization, with a significant increase in overseas revenue, which reached 23.38 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for over 50% of total revenue [1][2][11] - The company has implemented a direct sales model termed "airport + ground troops," enhancing its proximity to overseas markets and allowing for better market penetration [1][9][10] - By 2025, Zoomlion aims to achieve 10 billion USD in overseas revenue, marking a new milestone for the company [2][3] Group 2 - The revenue structure of Zoomlion has transformed, with emerging businesses such as aerial work machinery, earth-moving machinery, agricultural machinery, and mining machinery accounting for nearly half of total revenue by 2024 [2][19] - The company has reduced its reliance on the domestic real estate market, which now contributes only about 13% to its revenue [2][30] - The diversification strategy has been supported by advancements in core component autonomy and electrification, allowing Zoomlion to compete effectively in the agricultural machinery market [20][21] Group 3 - Zoomlion has invested over 10 billion yuan in digitalization, which has been crucial for its transformation and operational efficiency [24][25] - The company has developed humanoid robots and plans to release multiple models in 2025, indicating a focus on embodied intelligence as a future growth driver [24][27] - The digitalization efforts have enabled Zoomlion to maintain a clear understanding of its global market operations, enhancing its ability to respond to customer needs [26][29] Group 4 - The company has learned from past cycles and is now positioned as a "non-cyclical" enterprise, with a diminishing correlation to the domestic real estate market [5][30] - The management structure has evolved to include a diverse ownership model, balancing state-owned, private, and management interests, which supports sustainable development [32] - Zoomlion's leadership believes that the company's capabilities in key components and algorithms will help it navigate future market uncertainties [31][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The direct export cost of engineering machinery to the US has significantly increased due to tariffs, reaching 79% (25% + 20% + 34%), but the overall risk is manageable as the exposure to the US market is low for major manufacturers [1] - Key recommendations focus on companies with North American factories and those with facilities in Mexico (which has tariff exemptions) or Brazil and Turkey (which can bear a 10% tariff) [2] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Hengli Hydraulic have established production capabilities in North America, which can help mitigate tariff risks [2] - The report suggests that the overall risk is controllable despite the tariff impacts, and recommends companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic for investment [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The engineering machinery sector faces a 79% tariff on exports to the US, but major companies have limited exposure, with SANY at approximately 3% and Hengli at about 5% [1] - If retaliatory measures are taken by sanctioned countries, it could benefit Chinese engineering machinery brands, especially in emerging markets [1] Overseas Factory Layout - Companies with North American factories include SANY and Hengli, with SANY's future production capacity expected to exceed 2,000 units, corresponding to about 1 billion yuan [2] - Hengli's North American factory has an annual output value of 300-400 million yuan for hydraulic components, with plans to produce planetary screws if tariffs persist [2] - In Mexico, Hengli and Zoomlion have factories, with Hengli's projected annual output value increasing from 2 billion to 3-4 billion yuan [2] - Zoomlion's factory in Mexico has achieved over 1 billion yuan in actual sales since full production began in Q3 2024 [2] - In Brazil and Turkey, Zoomlion and LiuGong have factories with a combined capacity exceeding 3 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - Heavy machinery stocks in Hong Kong experienced a general rise, with Zoomlion (000157) increasing over 5%, SANY International rising over 4%, and China Longgong up 1.5% [1][2] - CME forecasts that excavator sales will reach 28,500 units by March 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with domestic sales expected to be 18,500 units (+22% YoY) and exports at 10,000 units (+2% YoY) [2] - Dongwu Securities predicts a better-than-expected recovery in excavator sales, supported by high growth in water conservancy investment for small excavators, stabilization in real estate and infrastructure for medium excavators, and stable demand from mining for large excavators [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the groundbreaking ceremony for Zoomlion's second phase project in Germany, which signifies the company's commitment to expanding its operations in Europe and enhancing its global presence [1][2] - The project will cover an area of over 60,000 square meters and involves an investment of over 50 million euros, aimed at producing various types of tower cranes, truck cranes, and concrete machinery [1] - The investment is seen as a symbol of deepening economic cooperation between China and Germany, with emphasis on the importance of open trade and mutual recognition of economic, ecological, and social conditions [2] Group 2 - Zoomlion, founded in 1992, is a leading manufacturer in engineering machinery, mining machinery, and agricultural machinery, with 27 domestic industrial parks and 11 overseas R&D and manufacturing bases across 8 countries [2] - The company has established 400 overseas outlets globally, with products covering over 170 countries and regions, showcasing its extensive international reach [2] - The project in Germany is expected to foster collaboration with local industries and contribute to the local economy, reinforcing Zoomlion's role as a benchmark in green and intelligent manufacturing [1]

Group 1 - The foundation-laying ceremony for the second phase of Zoomlion's German R&D and production base was held, focusing on producing large engineering machinery tailored for the European market, marking a significant step in international cooperation between China and Germany [1][2] - The total investment for the second phase project exceeds 50 million euros, with an expected output value of approximately 300 million USD upon completion [1][2] - The project is based on the expansion of the Wilbert factory, which was fully acquired by Zoomlion in 2018, and will cover over 60,000 square meters, adding products like tower cranes, truck cranes, and concrete machinery [2] Group 2 - The first phase of the factory has already achieved localized assembly of equipment, receiving positive feedback in the German and European markets, while the second phase aims to enhance product lines and local responsiveness [3] - By localizing operations in Germany, the overall delivery cycle can be shortened by 3 to 6 months, significantly improving customer response times [3] - Zoomlion's overseas revenue is projected to exceed 51% by 2024, with expectations for further growth in 2025, indicating that international business will be a core driver of the company's growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, with significant growth in excavator sales and a positive outlook for infrastructure investment [12]. - The humanoid robot sector is poised for breakthroughs in 2025, with expected mass production driving data collection and training improvements [5]. - The agricultural machinery market shows a significant increase in the market sentiment index, indicating strong demand growth [8][9]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic and international market dynamics, including the impact of U.S. inflation trends on machinery exports [10]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot company, Guanggu Dongzhi, is set to officially launch its products in May 2025, with plans to produce 300 units this year and a future target of 1,000 units annually [3]. - TARS, a startup in embodied intelligence, completed a $120 million financing round, marking the largest angel round in China's embodied intelligence sector [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for mass production of humanoid robots to address data scarcity issues and enhance practical applications [5]. Machine Tools & Cutters - Japan's machine tool orders in February 2025 reached 118.215 billion yen, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [6]. - China's metal cutting machine tool production in January-February 2025 was 103,000 units, up 14.4% year-on-year [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies in the machine tool sector that are likely to benefit from improved economic conditions and government policies [7]. Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index rose to 59.1% in February 2025, reflecting a 17.6 percentage point increase from the previous month [8]. - The report notes a significant increase in tractor exports, with a 19.7% rise in quantity and a 38.6% increase in export value compared to the previous year [9]. Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales in February 2025 reached 19,270 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%, with domestic sales up 99.4% [12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for engineering machinery as infrastructure projects ramp up [12]. Mining Machinery Exports - China's mining machinery exports in February 2025 amounted to $430 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [10]. - The report highlights the growth in China's overseas investments in mining, driven by high copper prices and increased capital expenditures [10]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the urgent need for domestic production of photolithography machines due to U.S. export controls on semiconductor equipment [14]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see significant revenue growth, with a projected 29% increase in total revenue for A-share semiconductor equipment companies in 2024 [14]. New Energy Equipment - A new 1GW photovoltaic project in Xinjiang has commenced, with an investment of approximately 3 billion yuan [15]. - The report notes advancements in solar cell technology, with a new record for conversion efficiency achieved by a Chinese company [16]. Low-altitude Economy and EVTOL - The report highlights the development of low-altitude logistics and tourism projects in major Chinese cities, marking a significant step in the low-altitude economy [17]. - The issuance of operation certificates for passenger-carrying drones indicates a new milestone in urban air mobility [17].