Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of lithium resource extraction by Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry, has raised investor concerns, despite the company asserting that the lithium extraction process was not in violation of regulations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Suspension of Lithium Extraction - On July 16, 2025, Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Potash Co., received a notice from the Haixi State Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi State Salt Lake Management Bureau to immediately cease lithium resource development activities [2]. - Following the notice, Geermu Cangge Lithium complied and halted production, while the company is actively working on the necessary procedures to resume lithium extraction once approvals are obtained [2][3]. Lithium Resource Development Background - Cangge Potash, the parent company of Geermu Cangge Lithium, has been involved in potassium fertilizer production from the underground brine of the Chaqi Salt Lake, generating significant by-products, including tail brine with low lithium chloride content [2]. - The company has not previously developed these resources due to technical challenges and low prices of lithium carbonate, but the recent price recovery has made low-concentration tail brine lithium extraction feasible [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.74% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 38.80% to 1.8 billion yuan [5]. - The revenue primarily came from potash and lithium carbonate businesses, as well as investment income from Tibet Julong Copper Co., in which Cangge Mining holds a 30.78% stake [5][6]. Potash and Lithium Business Insights - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,845 yuan per ton, up 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost decreased by 7.36% to 996 yuan per ton, resulting in a revenue increase of 24.60% for the potash business [6]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was approximately 67,500 yuan per ton, with an average cost of 41,500 yuan per ton, leading to a 57.90% decline in revenue from the lithium business to 267 million yuan [6]. Future Projects - Cangge Mining is advancing its lithium carbonate project at the Mami Cuo Salt Lake, planning to construct a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year in two phases, with the first phase targeting 50,000 tons [7]. - The company has made significant progress in obtaining necessary permits for the Mami Cuo project and plans to commence construction in the third quarter of 2025 [7].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit margin for the potassium chloride business was 61.84%, while the lithium carbonate business had a gross profit margin of 30.53% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 834 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 137.19% [2] Group 2: Potassium Chloride Business - The average selling price of potassium chloride (including tax) was 2,845 yuan per ton, an increase of 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost was 996 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year [1] - The rise in potassium fertilizer prices is attributed to global supply-demand mismatches, including U.S. tariffs on Canadian potassium fertilizer and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The company expects the tight supply-demand situation to support high prices as autumn fertilizer demand increases [1] Group 3: Lithium and Copper Projects - The company is actively pursuing the extension of its mining license for the Chaqi Mining Area, with approvals from various levels of government already received [2] - The first phase of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project is expected to have a lithium production cost of approximately 31,000 yuan per ton, benefiting from efficient production processes and controlled investment scales [2] - The company anticipates significant contributions to its performance from the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production of approximately 300,000 to 350,000 tons [3][4] Group 4: Synergies with Zijin Mining - The collaboration with Zijin Mining is expected to leverage world-class lithium resource reserves and the company's technical advantages in lithium extraction [3] - The synergy will manifest in low-cost lithium extraction processes, regional collaboration in Tibet, and enhanced resource management systems [3] - The company believes that Zijin Mining's control over Jilong Copper will improve operational efficiency and accelerate project development [3]

Core Insights - Cangge Mining has completed key approval processes for the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion project, which is expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [1] Project Development - The project has received necessary permits including project establishment approval, environmental impact assessment approval, land use approvals, and payment of cultivated land occupation tax [1] - Upon completion, the second phase is projected to produce an annual copper output of approximately 300,000 to 350,000 tons [1] - The new production capacity is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's performance [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of the recent 232 tariffs on copper, which do not include refined copper, leading to a significant drop in US copper prices. The week saw a decline in copper prices with LME copper down 2.51%, SHFE copper down 1.07%, and US copper down 23.45% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in downstream copper demand, with the copper rod operating rate increasing by 2.36 percentage points to 71.73% [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the supply disruptions in Chile and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes lower-than-expected job vacancies in the US and mixed employment data, indicating a cautious economic outlook [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 4.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.68 percentage points [12]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper prices fell by 2.51%, while SHFE copper prices decreased by 1.07%. LME copper inventory increased by 10.33% [26]. - The report notes a copper smelting profit of -2408 CNY/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [26]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 4.12%, and SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.33%. The report indicates a decrease in aluminum smelting profit to 4116 CNY/ton, down 7.71% [37]. Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 3.30%, and SHFE lead prices fell by 1.48%. LME zinc prices dropped by 4.59%, while SHFE zinc prices decreased by 2.19% [52]. - The report highlights a smelting profit of 346 CNY/ton for zinc, with mining profits down 6.47% to 6884 CNY/ton [52]. Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 5.10%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 2.47%. LME nickel prices dropped by 4.08%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 2.83% [66]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.13% to 71350 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 4.04% to 65670 CNY/ton [83]. - The report indicates a smelting profit of 862 CNY/ton for lithium from spodumene, while the profit from lithium from lepidolite was -4608 CNY/ton [83]. Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices surged by 11.29% to 276000 CNY/ton, with significant increases in cobalt smelting profits [96]. 4. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various non-ferrous metal stocks, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the market [12]. 5. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the PE_TTM for the non-ferrous sector is 20.54, with a decrease of 0.88, while the PB_LF is 2.37, down 0.11 [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in H1 2025, with a revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 38.8% to 1.80 billion yuan [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in its potassium, lithium, and copper segments, with significant expansion projects underway [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.56 billion, 6.08 billion, and 7.93 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 12, and 9 times based on the closing price on August 1 [6][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.80 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.57 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 87.1% [1]. Lithium Segment - In H1 2025, lithium carbonate production reached 5,200 tons, with sales of 4,500 tons, achieving 47.0% and 40.6% of the annual targets respectively [2]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 67,000 yuan per ton, with a significant cost advantage reflected in a stable operating cost of 41,000 yuan per ton [2]. Potassium Segment - The company produced 485,000 tons of potassium chloride in H1 2025, with sales of 536,000 tons, completing 48.5% and 56.4% of the annual targets respectively [3]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride increased by 25.6% year-on-year to 2,845 yuan per ton, while the operating cost decreased by 7.4% to 996 yuan per ton [3]. Copper Segment - Copper production in H1 2025 was 93,000 tons, with a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan, achieving a record high in unit profitability at 44,000 yuan per ton [4]. - The company reported investment income of 1.26 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a significant contribution from its copper operations [4].

Core Insights - The performance meeting of Cangge Mining highlighted that China's potassium chloride consumption is expected to show a trend of rising and then falling from January to June 2025, peaking at 1.71 million tons in March before returning to 1.3 million tons in June [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of 2025, the total domestic production of potassium chloride is approximately 2.55 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.49% [1] - The import dependency for potassium fertilizer exceeds 70%, indicating a high reliance on foreign sources for potassium fertilizer [1] - The upcoming autumn and winter fertilization season is anticipated to further stimulate demand in the potassium fertilizer market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining has completed key approval procedures for the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion project, which is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, significantly contributing to the company's performance with an annual copper production of approximately 300,000 to 350,000 tons after the project is launched [1] Group 1 - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion has received project approval, environmental assessment approval, land use approval, and payment of arable land occupation tax [1] - The expected completion date for the second phase of the project is by the end of 2025 [1] - The annual copper production from the Jilong Copper Mine after the second phase is projected to be around 300,000 to 350,000 tons [1]

证券代码：000408 证券简称：藏格矿业 藏格矿业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 答：目前，老挝钾盐项目处探转采阶段，老挝发展已取得《资源 储量证》，《可研报告》通过首轮技术评审。2025 年 7 月，老 挝发展就地下开采系统充填研究攻关召开启动会，紫金集团副总 工程师带队攻关，项目科研与前期工程正按计划推进。后续项目 最新进展会按法律法规和交易所规定及时披露。 6、截止现在，我司是否收到新的察尔汗盐湖采权证？ 答：察尔汗矿区采矿证将于 2025 年 8 月 9 日到期，公司高 度重视并积极推进与主管部门的沟通和材料申报。藏格钾肥按照 逐级报送审批原则，向都兰县自然资源局、海西州自然资源局、 青海省自然资源厅、自然资源部提交了采矿权延续变更申请，目 前县州省三级均已审查完毕并下发了同意的审查意见，等待自然 资源部下发审查意见。自然资源部审查意见下发后，藏格钾肥可 根据自然资源部批复，办理新的《采矿许可证》。采矿证续期落 地的最终时间，需以主管部门完成对该方案的批复为准。公司将 持续密切关注审批进展，并严格遵循信息披露规则，及时、准确 地向广大投资者通报重要动态。再次感谢您对公司的理解与支 持！ 7、公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining reported a mixed performance in its 2025 semi-annual report, with a decrease in revenue but significant growth in net profit, driven by its potassium fertilizer and copper mining businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 38.8% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.808 billion yuan, up 41.55% year-on-year [1]. - The total assets amounted to 16.893 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to shareholders at 15.723 billion yuan, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 7.03% [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The potassium fertilizer business showed stable growth, with revenue from potassium chloride reaching 1.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.60% [2]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,845 yuan per ton, up 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost decreased by 7.36% to 996 yuan per ton [2]. - The lithium salt business experienced a revenue decline of 57.90%, with sales amounting to 267 million yuan [4]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 67,470 yuan per ton, while the average sales cost was 41,478 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Project Developments - The company is advancing its lithium extraction project in the Zangge Salt Lake, with significant progress in obtaining necessary permits [5]. - The lithium project is expected to start construction in Q3 2025, with an estimated construction period of 9 to 12 months [5]. - The Laos potassium project has received approval for its resource reserve report, with a total potassium chloride resource of 984 million tons [3]. Group 4: Copper Mining Contribution - Cangge Mining holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper, which reported a copper production of 92,800 tons and revenue of 7.562 billion yuan [7]. - The investment income from Jilong Copper was 1.264 billion yuan, accounting for 70.22% of the company's net profit [7]. - The second phase of the Jilong Copper project is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025 [7]. Group 5: Lithium Production Challenges - The company announced the suspension of lithium production due to low-grade lithium resources and the economic feasibility of extracting lithium from low-concentration brine [8]. - The company is now focusing on the comprehensive utilization of lithium resources in response to national policies [8]. - The mining license for the Chahar Salt Lake is set to expire on August 9, 2025, and the company is actively working on the renewal process [9].

Macro Analysis - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, appeared "plain," but it reflects a stable economic outlook for the first half of 2025, aligning with expectations[5] - The meeting confirmed a consistent policy direction since September 2024, indicating effective policy tools and measures[5] - Short-term pressures are manageable, allowing for strategic focus on domestic demand, reform, risk mitigation, and improving living standards[5] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring both financial and resource sectors while also targeting growth opportunities in AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals[10] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.75% due to low inflation and interest rates[10] - Gold is projected to benefit from "de-dollarization" and debt monetization in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations due to currency appreciation[10] Company Performance Highlights - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) anticipates a 6% increase in copper production to 1.07 million tons in 2024, with a target of 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028[11] - Shandong Gold (600547.SH) expects a 10.51% increase in gold production to 46.17 tons in 2024, driven by improved mining operations and resource acquisitions[15] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) reported a 14.69% increase in revenue to CNY 156.17 billion in 2024, with net profit rising by 95.21% to CNY 22.37 billion, supported by rising alumina prices[16] Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policies, slower economic recovery, and significant price drops in metals like gold and copper[7] - The performance of companies like GuoBo Electronics (688375.SH) is under pressure due to declining revenues, with a 27.36% drop in total revenue to CNY 2.591 billion[32] - WanHua Chemical (600309.SH) faces short-term profit pressures due to asset impairments and market fluctuations, with a projected net profit margin of 8.1% in 2025[36]