Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue from potassium and lithium segments has declined significantly due to falling sales prices [2][3] - The investment income from the giant copper mine has increased, contributing significantly to the company's overall profit [4] - Future growth in potassium and lithium production capacity is anticipated, supported by ongoing projects [9][10] Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.79%, with a net profit of 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% [1][11] - The average selling price of potassium chloride decreased by 14.91% to 2,115.25 yuan/ton, while the average selling cost increased by 7.18% to 1,167.04 yuan/ton [2] - For lithium carbonate, the revenue fell by 48.40% to 1.022 billion yuan, with the average selling price dropping by 60.81% to 75,200 yuan/ton [3] Copper Mine Investment - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Giant Copper, which produced 166,300 tons of copper in 2024, generating an investment income of 1.928 billion yuan, accounting for 74.72% of the company's net profit [4] - The investment income from Giant Copper increased by 48.72% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in the copper segment [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.307 billion yuan, 3.730 billion yuan, and 4.720 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.023 billion yuan, 4.336 billion yuan, and 5.220 billion yuan [11][13] - The company is expected to benefit from significant cost advantages in lithium extraction and anticipated increases in production capacity for both lithium and potassium [11] Project Development - The company is advancing multiple projects, including the development of potassium resources in Laos and lithium projects in Tibet, which are expected to enhance future production capacity [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in China's M&A market activity in Q1 2025, with a total of 1,647 disclosed M&A events, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, and a transaction scale of approximately 7,779 billion RMB, up about 115.30% year-on-year [1][3][6]. Group 2 - In terms of regional distribution, Beijing led the M&A market with a transaction scale of 5,467 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 629.29%. Shanghai followed with 1,638 billion RMB, up 92.30%, while Guangdong experienced a decline of 22.97% with a transaction scale of 619 billion RMB [6]. - The banking sector dominated the industry distribution, with a transaction scale of 5,048 billion RMB, reflecting a staggering year-on-year increase of 3,725.95%. The materials industry and capital goods sector followed with 495 billion RMB and 308 billion RMB, increasing by 64.48% and 67.32% respectively [9]. - The method of acquisition showed that new stock issuance acquisitions led with a scale of 5,073 billion RMB, accounting for 64.33% of the total. Agreement acquisitions and capital increase acquisitions followed with 1,449 billion RMB and 409 billion RMB, representing 18.38% and 5.19% of the total respectively [11][13]. Group 3 - The top three purposes of M&A transactions were horizontal integration, asset adjustment, and diversification strategy, with transaction scales of 456 billion RMB, 439 billion RMB, and 116 billion RMB respectively [15][17]. - M&A transactions exceeding 100 billion RMB accounted for the highest proportion, making up 71.27% of the total transaction amount, while those between 10 billion and 100 billion RMB accounted for 16.05% [18]. Group 4 - The top three M&A transactions by scale in Q1 2025 were: 1. China Bank's 8.48% equity change with a transaction amount of 1,650 billion RMB 2. Postal Savings Bank's 15.54% equity change at 1,175.80 billion RMB 3. Bank of Communications' 10.92% equity change at 1,124.20 billion RMB [20][24]. Group 5 - In terms of financial advisory rankings, Guotai Junan led with a transaction scale of 1,124.20 billion RMB, followed by Guotou Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan with 162.47 billion RMB and 158.96 billion RMB respectively [26][28]. - For completed M&A transactions, Dongfang Securities ranked first with 980.31 billion RMB, while Jialin Capital and Zhongyin Securities both had 976.15 billion RMB [29]. Group 6 - The leading law firm in M&A transactions was King & Wood Mallesons with a transaction scale of 1,186.32 billion RMB, followed by JY Law Firm and Zhong Lun Law Firm with 115.62 billion RMB and 55.36 billion RMB respectively [32][34]. - In accounting firms, Ernst & Young ranked first with 169.94 billion RMB, followed by Rongcheng with 132.76 billion RMB and Xinyong Zhonghe with 42.66 billion RMB [35][37]. Group 7 - The top asset appraisal institution was Zhonglian Asset Appraisal with 207.29 billion RMB, followed by Guozhonglian and Zhuoxin Dahua with 133.57 billion RMB and 108.33 billion RMB respectively [38][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with operating income at 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.58 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [3][15]. - The lithium business showed a mixed performance with a production of 11,566 tons, down 4.12% year-on-year, but sales volume increased by 31.68% to 13,582 tons due to rising market demand [4]. - The potassium business faced challenges with a production of 1.073 million tons, down 1.94% year-on-year, and sales volume down 19.21% [5]. - The investment income from the Giant Dragon Copper Mine was a significant contributor, amounting to 1.928 billion yuan, representing a 48.77% increase year-on-year and accounting for 74.72% of the company's net profit [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 927 million yuan, a 65% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 712 million yuan, up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate in 2024 was 85,000 yuan per ton, down 60.81% year-on-year, while the average market price was 90,500 yuan per ton, down 65.6% [4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,305.66 yuan per ton, down 14.91% year-on-year [5]. Business Segments - The lithium segment's gross margin was 45.44%, down 35.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from brine prices and equipment maintenance [4]. - The potassium segment's gross margin was 44.83%, down 11.37 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased environmental compliance costs [5]. - The company is expanding its lithium, potassium, and copper operations, with significant progress in obtaining mining rights and project developments [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.013 billion, 4.133 billion, and 6.159 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment due to unexpected copper price increases [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19, 14, and 9 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].

藏格矿业（000408）披露的投资者关系活动记录表显示，近日，公司召开电话会议，长江证券、民生证 券等的121位分析师和投资者参与。此外，公司还召开2024年年度网上业绩说明会，公司相关负责人介 绍2024年度经营情况并对投资者问题做了回复。 据介绍，藏格矿业在钾锂铜三个板块的资源储备与产能扩张上取得实质性进展，锂资源方面，公司进一 步增加对国能矿业的持股比例，其穿透持股提升至21.09%，并积极推进麻米错项目采矿证审批与项目 施工准备工作；钾资源方面，公司已取得老挝万象塞塔尼县和巴俄县区157.72平方公里钾盐矿储量证， 对应氯化钾资源量约为9.84亿吨，已向老挝能矿部矿管司提交可行性研究报告并同步开展环评报告的编 制，并于2024年完成了200万吨/年氯化钾一期项目的设计招标工作；铜矿资源方面，巨龙铜矿二期改扩 建项目预计将于2025年底建成投产，达产后一二期合计年矿产铜将达30-35万吨，与此同时巨龙铜矿在 增储方面取得重大突破，巨龙铜业新增铜金属资源量1472.6万吨，截至2024年末，巨龙铜业(含巨龙铜 矿及知不拉铜矿)保有资源量铜2561万吨、银1.5万吨、钼165万吨。 记者注意到，在上述调研中 ...

公司拥有丰富的钾锂矿产资源储备，钾矿资源储备主要源自察尔汗盐湖以及老挝钾盐项目，其中察尔汗盐湖，是我国已发现的最大可溶性钾盐矿床；而位于 老挝万象塞塔尼县和巴俄县的钾盐矿，在157.72平方公里范围内，氯化钾资源量约为9.84亿吨。锂矿资源领域，公司以青海察尔汗盐湖为基，向西藏进军； 麻米错盐湖已探明氯化锂资源量约250.11万吨，折合当量碳酸锂约217.74万吨；龙木错和结则茶卡两个盐湖的锂资源储量丰富，合计碳酸锂储量约390万吨。 在研发创新方面，经过二十余年技术沉淀，公司打造了"三位一体"的创新生态系统。在创新机制上，公司建立了"总裁—总工程师—技术研发专职部门"的研 发管理架构，并依托研发实验室引进专业技术人才，通过规范管理程序以激发创新活力并提高创新经济效益，为企业创新发展注入更大动能。 （校对/黄仁贵） 3月28日，藏格矿业发布2024年年度业绩报告。报告显示，公司全年实现营业收入32.51亿元，同比下降37.79%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润25.8亿元，同 比下降24.56%。 | | 2024年 | 2023年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022年 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

近日，藏格矿业在接受机构调研时表示，参股公司西藏巨龙铜矿二期改扩建工程正全面推进，计划于2025年底建成投产。项目达产后，年采选矿石量将超1 亿吨、年产铜30万-35万吨，成为国内采选规模最大、全球本世纪投产的最大单体铜矿山。 此外，藏格矿业回应了2024年第四季度计提4000多万元资产减值的原因，系钾肥生产单元关停导致的设备减值，但强调该影响不具备持续性。 （校对/黄仁贵） 针对铜价走势，公司认为短期受美国贸易政策及降息预期扰动波动加大，长期则受益于矿端供应刚性及能源转型、AI用铜需求增长。 在资源开发方面，藏格矿业透露察尔汗盐湖采矿证续期工作进展顺利，已完成《储量核实报告》等关键审批，力争权证到期前完成续期。针对钾肥业务，公 司表示国家保供政策下国储拍卖成交价维持在2800-2900元/吨区间，区域价格受物流成本波动影响；2024年钾肥成本上升主要源于绿色矿山建设投入，但该 费用不具有持续性，剔除后成本仍稳定在合理水平，业务"压舱石"地位显著。 锂盐板块方面，公司认为2025年需关注高成本产能出清进度，需求端则受益于电动汽车、储能市场及固态电池等技术革新，长期看好供需格局。碳酸锂销售 采取"满产满销"策略 ...

Group 1: Company Operations and Financial Performance - The company is actively working on the renewal of the mining license for the Chaqi Salt Lake, with key reports already approved and the process progressing smoothly [2] - The average cost of potash fertilizer has remained stable over the past three years, despite a year-on-year increase in 2024 due to investments in green mining [2] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the supply-demand dynamics of lithium salts, driven by trends in electric vehicles and energy storage [2] Group 2: Sales and Pricing Strategies - The sales strategy for lithium carbonate focuses on full production and sales, adjusting the sales pace based on market conditions and price forecasts [3] - Potash prices are influenced by national supply policies, with current auction prices ranging from CNY 2800 to CNY 2900 per ton [2] Group 3: Project Development and Future Plans - The Ma Mi Cuo project is in the process of obtaining mining permits, with groundwork already laid for construction to begin once approvals are secured [3] - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual ore processing capacity exceeding 100 million tons and copper production of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [4] - Future phases of the Jilong Copper Mine could potentially increase production capacity to 600,000 tons of copper annually, making it the largest copper mine globally [4] Group 4: Financial Adjustments and Asset Management - A CNY 40 million asset impairment in Q4 2024 was due to production adjustments and the temporary shutdown of certain potash production units, which is not expected to recur [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with operating income of 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [5][6] - The investment income from the company's subsidiary, Giant Dragon Copper Industry, accounted for 74.72% of the net profit, with a total investment income of 1.928 billion yuan, an increase of 48.72% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its potassium salt production and has achieved a production target of 1.073 million tons, exceeding its goal [5] - The lithium segment is progressing with projects in Tibet, with significant lithium reserves and production plans in place [5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.251 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.79% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.580 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.56% [6] - Forecasted revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 3.036 billion yuan and 4.248 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.052 billion yuan and 5.415 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 49.6% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute gains of 9.78%, 16.42%, and 28.35% over 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively [4]

5[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 藏格矿业(000408.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 31 日 所属行业：有色金属/能源金属 当前价格(元)：35.81 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 藏格矿业 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.78 | 16.42 | 28.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 11.11 | 13.85 | 30.45 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 买入（维持） 1.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长；结则茶卡与龙 木错盐湖项目进展顺利》，2024.10.25 2.《铜行业跟踪：24Q3 降息影响定价， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 35.81 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue due to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, but investment income from its stake in Jilong Copper Industry reached a new high [2][3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 3.251 billion CNY, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.580 billion CNY, down 24.56% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is set to change its controlling shareholder to Zijin International, which is expected to enhance resource development and operational synergy [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 927 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.98%. Net profit for the same quarter was 712 million CNY, up 57.76% year-on-year and 24.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling prices for potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were approximately 2,115 CNY/ton and 75,200 CNY/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.9% and 60.8%, respectively [2]. Investment Income - The investment income from Jilong Copper Industry was 1.928 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The copper concentrate production for the year was 166,300 tons [2]. - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production capacity of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.028 billion CNY, 4.369 billion CNY, and 5.175 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, following the decline in 2024 [4].