Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued decline in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4% in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a historically low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted towards sectors such as civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemicals, with significant increases in holdings for companies like China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2][3]. - The polyurethane and tire sectors have seen continuous reductions in holdings, particularly for Wanhua Chemical, due to declining core product prices and a drop in profitability [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong interest in new materials, particularly in the fiberglass sector, driven by high demand in AI applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation in the Chemical Industry - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trend since Q2 2022, with a significant drop from 8.5% in Q3 2021 to 4% in Q2 2025 [1][11]. Individual Stock Changes - Key stocks that received increased allocations include China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while significant reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [2][16]. - The top ten stocks by market value in the chemical sector saw a decrease in concentration, with the top 15 companies holding a combined market value of 33.2 billion yuan, down 1.5 percentage points [14][15]. Industry Trends - The civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemical sectors are gaining attention, with the civil explosives sector benefiting from ongoing supply-side reforms and increased demand in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [3][4]. - The potassium fertilizer market is supported by significant price increases in contracts signed in mid-June, while fluorochemicals are experiencing price rises due to quota implementations [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with fundamental support, such as potassium fertilizers and fluorochemicals, while also highlighting the importance of domestic demand in the civil explosives sector amid global trade uncertainties [4][5]. - New materials, particularly those related to AI applications, are recommended for investment consideration, alongside traditional cyclical sectors showing positive supply-side changes [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by rising lithium carbonate prices and strong market sentiment, particularly in the context of the electric vehicle industry and solid-state battery technology advancements [1][2][4][9]. Lithium Market Dynamics - On July 24, A-shares saw a notable increase, with lithium stocks like Tibet Mining and Yongshan Lithium hitting the daily limit, while others like Ganfeng Lithium and Rongjie shares also surged [1][3]. - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures rose by 7.83% to 77,120 yuan/ton, marking a significant rebound in prices, which have increased over 30% since late June [2][4]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 70,450 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also saw a similar rise [5]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions in Yichun City require lithium mining companies to compile resource verification reports by September 30, raising concerns about potential production halts and contributing to price increases [6][7]. - Cangge Mining announced the suspension of its lithium resource development activities following a notice from local authorities, which could further impact supply dynamics [7]. Global Supply Trends - Prices for lithium spodumene from Australia and Zimbabwe have started to rebound after a period of stagnation, with Australian spodumene priced at $730/ton and Zimbabwean lithium priced at $657.5/ton, reflecting weekly increases of 7.7% and 7.3%, respectively [8]. Battery Industry Outlook - The Chinese automotive battery sector is projected to grow significantly, with a 47.3% year-on-year increase in cumulative battery installation from January to June, driven by the rising demand for electric vehicles [9]. - Solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with companies like CATL and BYD making progress in development, indicating a potential shift in the battery landscape [10][11]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries is expected to maintain a rapid growth trajectory, supported by advancements in solid-state battery technology and increasing production capacities [10][11].

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes a shift from thematic trading to mainline investment strategies, highlighting the potential for growth in sectors such as humanoid robots, computing infrastructure, and AI applications due to their currently low positions and low crowding levels, suggesting a high probability of recent rebounds [1][9]. - The report identifies military industry and arms sales as a mid-term investment opportunity, particularly with the upcoming military parade on September 3, which could serve as a confirmation point for investments in this sector [1][9]. - Long-term trends in industries such as humanoid robots, computing infrastructure, solid-state batteries, and new consumption are expected to gain traction, supported by public fund accumulation, active financing, capital expenditure expansion, and imminent performance realization [1][9]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Cangge Mining (藏格矿业) is highlighted for its strong asset base and favorable timing, with a focus on its major profit contributor, Jilong Copper Industry, which is expected to significantly increase its copper production capacity in the coming years [2][12][13]. - The report forecasts Cangge Mining's net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.188 billion, 4.007 billion, and 5.067 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.03, 2.55, and 3.23 yuan, and a target price of 59.72 yuan per share based on a 29x PE ratio for 2025 [2][12]. - The strategic importance of potassium chloride is emphasized, as it relates to food security and national safety, with Cangge Mining's control over the scarce resources of the Chahar Salt Lake and its overseas projects in Laos enhancing its market position [12][13]. Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - The report notes a significant increase in trading volume on the North Exchange, with a focus on high-quality stocks that possess scarcity, core competitiveness, and performance support to capture structural opportunities [3][19]. - The North Exchange's high activity and sensitivity to policy changes are expected to continue, with recommendations to closely monitor infrastructure investment and high-end manufacturing sectors for potential growth [3][19]. - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive to identifying structural opportunities, particularly in sectors driven by policy initiatives related to large-scale infrastructure projects [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 59.72 CNY per share based on a 29x PE for 2025 [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 31.88 billion, 40.07 billion, and 50.67 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.03, 2.55, and 3.23 CNY [4][11]. - The report highlights the strategic advantages of the company's assets, including its holdings in the Chaqi Salt Lake and Jilong Copper Industry, and the favorable market conditions for lithium carbonate and copper prices [4][12]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook on Jilong Copper Industry - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper, which is expected to be the main source of net profit, contributing significantly to the company's earnings [12][41]. - After resource expansion, Jilong Copper is projected to become China's largest copper mine by resource volume, with annual copper production increasing from 154,000 tons in 2023 to approximately 300,000-350,000 tons post-expansion [12][13]. Mid-term Outlook on Potassium Chloride - Potassium chloride is deemed a strategic asset due to its implications for food security and national safety, with the company controlling scarce resources in the Chaqi Salt Lake and expanding into Laos [14][25]. - The global potassium supply is highly concentrated, with the top six countries accounting for over 85% of supply, while demand remains relatively inelastic, particularly in emerging Asian economies [14][15]. Long-term Outlook on Lithium Carbonate - The lithium market is currently experiencing low prices, with the company positioned to leverage its high-quality salt lake resources to establish a lithium platform under the Zijin Mining Group [15][27]. - The demand for lithium continues to grow, and the company is expected to benefit from new projects and capacity releases in China, with a focus on integrating its lithium business with Zijin's resources [15][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 33.71 billion, 38.87 billion, and 49.42 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 3.70%, 15.29%, and 27.16% respectively [11][17]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reflecting better pricing and cost control in its potassium and lithium segments [11][17].

Group 1: Market Overview - Investors are awaiting earnings reports from major tech companies like Google and Tesla, while digesting tariff-related news, leading to a decline in semiconductor and AI sectors, which ended the Nasdaq's seven-day rally [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.06%, and the Dow Jones increased by 0.40%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.39% [2] - Nvidia dropped over 2.5%, while Google A shares rose by 0.65%, marking the longest consecutive rise since the end of 2010 [2] Group 2: Commodity and Currency Movements - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 3 basis points [3] - The U.S. dollar experienced a three-day decline, decreasing by nearly 0.5% [3] - Gold prices surged over 1%, reaching $3,400, marking a one-month high [4] Group 3: Sector Developments - The global first Tesla restaurant opened, featuring "Cybertruck" and humanoid robots for food delivery, with some customers waiting 13 hours [6] - The UK approved a £38 billion project for the Sizewell C nuclear power station [7] - OpenAI announced a partnership with Oracle to expand a 4.5 GW data center, accelerating AI infrastructure [8] Group 4: Investment Trends - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the role of state-owned enterprises in supporting high-quality development in Tibet, focusing on infrastructure investment [11] - A report indicated that the lithium carbonate futures rose over 2.7%, with a 13% increase over the past seven trading days, driven by regulatory actions in lithium resource production [15] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to release positive policy signals regarding its construction and operation, which could significantly boost the regional economy [16] Group 5: Aging Population and Healthcare - The National Health Commission released a plan to promote integrated medical and elderly care services, responding to the growing demand for elderly health services [17] - The elderly population in China is projected to exceed 300 million by 2025, with the market size for elderly care expected to grow to ¥16.1 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of over 15% [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the lithium carbonate market, driven by multiple factors, including supply disruptions and positive market sentiment [1][2][4] - As of July 21, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price reached 66,800 yuan/ton, up from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton on June 9, marking an increase of over 11% [1] - The main contract price for lithium carbonate (2509) has risen by 22.32% since June 23, reflecting strong market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - Several lithium mining concept stocks have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of the year, with Tianqi Lithium and Weiling Co. achieving profitability [3] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a turnaround from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year, attributed to improved pricing cycles and currency gains [3] - Weiling Co. anticipates a net profit of 0 to 5 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 51 million yuan, due to diversification into multi-metal mining [3] Group 3 - The A-share market related to lithium mining has seen a rise, with the Wind lithium battery concept index increasing by 19.63% since June [2] - On July 22, the index rose by 1.58%, with significant gains from stocks like Xianhui Technology (up 15.48%) and others reaching their daily limit [2] - The growth in new energy vehicle sales, which accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales in the first half of 2025, is driving demand for lithium batteries and supporting lithium carbonate prices [2] Group 4 - The current lithium price is experiencing wide fluctuations, with a notable rebound, supported by downstream purchasing and rising mineral costs [4] - Despite the positive sentiment, the supply side faces challenges in effectively reducing output, while demand remains stable, leading to a likely continuation of price oscillation [4][5] - The market is characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" dynamic, with short-term supply disruptions still influencing market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 69,100 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, both showing an increase compared to the previous working day [1] - Over the past year, lithium prices have mostly remained below 100,000 yuan/ton, raising questions about whether this low price level presents a good opportunity for companies in the supply chain to acquire lithium resources [1] - Several lithium industry companies have responded to investor inquiries about acquiring lithium mines during this low price period, indicating a proactive approach to securing quality lithium resource projects [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium Corporation emphasizes the importance of solidifying upstream lithium resource layouts as part of its future development strategy, maintaining an open cooperation attitude while evaluating global lithium resource projects [2] - Analysts predict that lithium prices will likely remain around 60,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, suggesting that the current price trough is an opportune time for companies to acquire quality lithium resources [2] - Among eight lithium industry companies in the A-share market, six have released semi-annual performance forecasts, showing a mixed performance with only a few companies, including Tianqi Lithium, expected to be profitable [2] Group 3 - The lithium price is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with limited potential for significant increases, while companies face both favorable factors and pressures from low prices [3] - Companies are advised to enhance technological innovation, optimize supply chain layouts, and improve management efficiency to better cope with performance pressures and maintain competitive advantages in a challenging market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was required to halt production, and there was an issue with the compliance of lithium mine approvals in Yichun. Driven by the rebound in lithium prices, the prices of spodumene concentrate and mica increased. Although production in July increased month - on - month, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium was poor, and the growth rate of terminal automobile consumption slowed, maintaining a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [3]. - On the trading floor: Driven by supply disruptions, the price of lithium carbonate started its second round of increase, with significant increases in positions and trading volume during the week, and strong market sentiment [3]. - Future outlook: Despite the weak fundamentals, the resource disruption events remain unresolved, which will boost the trading floor sentiment in the short term. The game between supply disruptions and weak reality may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. The supply of lithium salts will further increase, while downstream material factories' willingness to stockpile actively is poor, and the demand intensity is limited. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues, but the short - term price may still be strong [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate all increased, with the import of 1.3% - 2.2% lithium raw ore rising by 8.85% and the import of 5.5% - 6% lithium concentrate rising by 2.00% [4]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate spot increased by 8.84%, while the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot decreased by 100% [4]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 11.06%, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.80% [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and delivery**: As of July 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,239 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,580 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 377,300 lots [6]. - **Supply side**: As of July 18, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,313 tons, an increase of 155 tons from the previous period. Zangge Lithium stopped production due to compliance issues, and 8 mines in Yichun had approval compliance problems. The enthusiasm for resuming production in lithium salt factories was high [6]. - **Import aspect**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The import volume of lithium ore in May was about 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% [7][8]. - **Demand aspect**: - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of July 18, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The prices of cathode materials increased driven by the rebound of lithium carbonate [9]. - **New energy vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% but a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The growth rate of new energy vehicle consumption slowed down. There were also relevant policies and technological developments [10]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of July 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,990 tons, with factory inventory decreasing and market inventory increasing. The downstream replenishment sentiment was strong, and there may be an inflection point for inventory reduction [11]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook - Supply disruptions are frequent, and lithium prices are strong. Although the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, the resource disruption events are unresolved, and the short - term price may still be strong, with wide - range fluctuations [12]. 3.3 Industry News - Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was ordered to stop lithium resource development due to incomplete mining procedures [13]. - Lanxiao Technology's first 3,300 - ton lithium hydroxide production line in Tibet is undergoing on - site testing and commissioning [13]. - Anhui Shihao's project of an annual production of 2GWh lithium - ion power and energy - storage battery factory entered the pre - approval publicity stage [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrate, and cathode materials [15][17][20][24][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market, particularly in rare earth, lithium, and small metal sectors, is driven by policy signals aimed at reducing excess capacity and improving market prices, referred to as the "anti-involution" concept [6][16][17]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 18, major stocks in the rare earth and lithium sectors saw significant gains, with North Rare Earth rising by 9.87% and Jiuwu High-Tech soaring by 20% [1]. - The Wind popular concept index showed substantial increases in various sectors, with rare earths up by 6.09% and lithium mining by 3.04% [2]. - In the futures market, aluminum oxide prices surged nearly 7%, while glass and soda ash also saw increases exceeding 5% [7][9]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent announcements regarding lithium resource mining permits have led to speculation about potential nationwide restrictions, contributing to price increases in lithium futures [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address overcapacity and low-price competition across multiple industries, including traditional sectors like steel and new sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [16][17]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated that a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries will be implemented, signaling a systematic approach to the "anti-involution" strategy [17]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with polysilicon futures prices rising over 50% since late June [3][14]. - Glass manufacturers are reducing production by 30% to manage supply, which is expected to impact the market positively [12]. - The industrial product futures index has increased by 4.18% in July, with coal, building materials, and steel sectors showing significant gains [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the "anti-involution" trend, suggesting that industries with high inventory and low capacity utilization may benefit from upcoming policy measures [18]. - Historical precedents indicate that supply-side reforms can lead to significant improvements in industry profitability, as seen in the steel and coal sectors during previous reforms [18]. - The upcoming political bureau meeting may further enhance growth stabilization policies, potentially leading to a more sustained recovery in the industrial product market [18].