Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend with major indices rising, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new closing high for the year [2] - Resource cyclical stocks were prominent, with the rare earth permanent magnet sector experiencing significant gains, alongside lithium and coal sectors [2][3] - The overall market is transitioning from a "weight-driven" to a "theme-driven" approach, indicating a structural market trend [8] Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw active trading, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Jiuwu High-Tech and Huahong Technology [3] - The discovery of a new mineral, "Nedun River Mineral," by a research team from China University of Geosciences, highlights the complexity and resource diversity of the Baiyun Obo mine, the world's largest rare earth deposit [3] - As of July 18, 17 companies in the rare earth permanent magnet sector have released half-year performance forecasts, with 9 expecting profit increases and 5 turning losses into profits [4] Group 3: Lithium Sector - The lithium mining sector experienced significant movements, with stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit up [6] - A recent announcement from Cangge Mining regarding the suspension of lithium resource development due to compliance issues has raised concerns about supply constraints in the lithium market [6] - Major lithium companies Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium reported improved performance forecasts, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Financial institutions suggest that the market is likely to continue focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in technology growth sectors supported by policy and industrial upgrades [8] - The trend indicates a shift from capital-driven to profit-driven industry operations, with expectations of dual recovery in performance and valuation across various sectors [8]

Market Performance - A-shares steadily advanced this week, with the ChiNext Index reaching a new high for the year and the Shenzhen Component Index hitting a four-month high, approaching its highest point of the year [1] - Weekly trading volume increased to 7.73 trillion yuan, marking the largest weekly trading volume in three months [1] Fund Inflows - Leverage funds actively entered the market, with most industries under the Shenwan first-level industry classification seeing net buying, particularly the computer industry with over 4.4 billion yuan and the electronics industry with over 3 billion yuan [2] - The electronic, biopharmaceutical, and automotive sectors each received over 20 billion yuan in net inflows, while the non-bank financial sector saw a net outflow of over 8.3 billion yuan [2] Rare Earth Demand - The rare earth sector performed strongly, with the rare earth permanent magnet index reaching a three-and-a-half-year high [3] - Demand for rare earths is expected to grow rapidly due to advancements in humanoid robots and electric vehicles, with estimates suggesting a demand of at least 70,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron by 2025 [3] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector, including lithium and cobalt, reached a two-year high, with lithium carbonate futures breaking 70,000 yuan/ton, marking a 20% increase from recent lows [4] - Short-term lithium salt supply may decline due to reduced exports from Chile and domestic production halts, leading to a potential price stabilization [4] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, with the innovative drug index hitting record highs multiple times this week [6] - Notable stocks in the sector, such as Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Aosaikang, experienced consecutive trading halts, with some stocks showing year-to-date gains exceeding 200% [6][7] Earnings Forecasts - Several pharmaceutical companies have recently forecasted substantial profit increases for the first half of 2025, with estimates suggesting net profit growth exceeding 19 times for some firms [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a mixed performance, with the small metals sector rising by 6.58% and the industrial metals sector declining by 3.49% in the past two weeks [3][12] - The rare earth and magnetic materials sector is experiencing a significant profit increase, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and price recovery [5][65] - Lithium prices continue to decline due to oversupply, but leading companies are expected to recover as high-cost production is phased out [66] Industry Performance Overview - As of July 17, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has decreased by 0.87% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.55 percentage points [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has increased by 20.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.55 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [12] - The small metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.87%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 16.89% [18] Price Trends - As of July 17, 2025, LME copper is priced at $9,678 per ton, LME aluminum at $2,589 per ton, and LME nickel at $15,065 per ton [24] - The rare earth price index has risen to 192.03, with significant increases in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [42][65] - Lithium carbonate prices are stabilizing, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 64,800 yuan per ton [40][66] Company Performance Highlights - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% for the first half of 2025 [56] - Ningbo Yunsheng anticipates a net profit increase of 133.55% to 250.33% for the same period [57] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected at 19.178 billion yuan, with a net profit of 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.41% year-on-year [52][67]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Pengyang Dividend Preferred Mixed A (009102) reported a profit of 568,900 yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 0.62% during the period [3]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 1.213 yuan, with a one-year compounded unit net value growth rate of 17.58%, ranking 333 out of 601 comparable funds [4][3]. - The fund's performance over the last three months showed a growth rate of 8.89%, ranking 359 out of 607, and over the last six months, it was 9.89%, ranking 326 out of 607 [4]. Fund Management Strategy - The fund manager, Li Renwang, indicated that adjustments were made based on risk-reward ratios, including clearing positions in companies heavily impacted by tariffs and increasing investments in music platform companies and food delivery services [3]. - The fund maintained an average stock position of 90.5% over the last three years, higher than the industry average of 85.32% [14]. Fund Holdings - As of June 30, the fund's top holdings included Tencent Holdings, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Kweichow Moutai, and others, indicating a diversified portfolio [19]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last three years was 0.414, ranking 48 out of 468 comparable funds, while the maximum drawdown was 19.57%, ranking 447 out of 461 [9][11].

藏格矿业表示，收到《通知》后，公司全资子公司格尔木藏格锂业有限公司（"藏格锂业"）已按要求停 产；同时，公司正积极推进锂资源开采手续办理，待锂资源开采手续办理完成后，将及时向海西州盐湖 管理局申请复产。 就该事项对公司的影响，藏格矿业表示，2025年藏格锂业计划实现碳酸锂产量1.1万吨、销量1.1万吨； 上半年预计实现碳酸锂产量5350吨、销量4470吨，预计实现净利润4900万元、占公司整体净利润的比例 很低，对公司经营业绩的影响较小。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者朱玥怡）就藏格矿业（000408.SZ）子公司被要求停产一事，7月18日海西州自 然资源局一名工作人员告诉贝壳财经记者，据其了解省级部门正在核实相关情况。 藏格矿业子公司被要求停产一事迅速引起市场关注。披露消息的同日，藏格矿业召开电话会议，233位 机构投资者参与。藏格矿业董秘李瑞雪在会上表示，除藏格锂业临时停产外，藏格钾肥及公司其他子公 司的经营活动处于正常开展中，暂不会导致公司经营业绩受到重大影响。 7月17日，藏格矿业发布公告称，全资子公司格尔木藏格钾肥有限公司（"藏格钾肥"）于2025年7月16日 收到海西州自然资源局、海西州盐湖管理局下发的《 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound today, with all three major indices closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34%. The total trading volume reached 1.571 trillion, an increase of 31.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance 1. Lithium Mining Surge - The lithium mining sector saw significant gains due to three main factors: 1. Cangge Mining announced that its potassium fertilizer company received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development, impacting lithium supply [2] 2. The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose over 4%, surpassing 70,000 yuan [2] 3. The global demand for lithium, driven by the booming electric vehicle industry and the rapid development of energy storage, continues to grow [2] 2. Rare Earths Rally - The rare earth sector experienced a surge due to two key reasons: 1. Several rare earth permanent magnet companies reported significant profit increases, with Huahong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 3047%-3722% year-on-year, and Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit increase of 1883%-2015% [3] 2. A new rare earth mineral named "Neodymium Yellow River" was discovered in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to positively impact the rare earth sector [3] 3. Coal and Nonferrous Metals Rise - The coal and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial increases due to: 1. High summer temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, boosting coal consumption for thermal power generation [4] 2. The CCTD reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region rose again, with a week-on-week increase of 14, 19, and 18 yuan per ton [5] 3. Rainfall affecting coal production, with a 3.6% decrease in output and a 2.6% reduction in total inventory week-on-week [5] 4. Protests at overseas mines exacerbating resource supply concerns, contributing to price increases in metals like tin and zinc [5] 4. AI Sector Activity - The AI sector was active today, primarily due to OpenAI's technical live stream showcasing the new ChatGPT agent, which possesses autonomous thinking and action capabilities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 2.47% to 67,960 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 64,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 416 tons to 10,239 tons [3]. - Rio Tinto officially announced the suspension of the Mt Cattlin lithium mine in its 25Q2 production report. Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary, Zangge Potash, received a notice to stop lithium resource development activities on July 16 [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. Lithium imports in July are expected to change little compared to the previous month. The production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons [3]. - With the continuous fermentation of news, the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts, the continuous rise of lithium ore prices, and many market news disturbances, the price may still be stimulated to rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 68,060 yuan/ton, up 1,460 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 693 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 63,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 62,570 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. Most prices of other products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain remained unchanged [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report provides charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%) over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. 3.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts show the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts illustrate the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other环节 inventory of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].

Group 1 - On July 17, a total of 32 companies were investigated by institutions, with 20 companies being surveyed by funds, highlighting a significant interest in certain firms [1][2] - The most notable company was Yingzi Network, which attracted 52 funds for investigation, followed by New Times and Cangge Mining with 29 and 28 funds respectively [1] - The surveyed companies spanned 11 industries, with the electronics sector having the highest representation at 5 companies, followed by machinery and computer sectors with 3 and 2 companies respectively [1] Group 2 - Among the surveyed companies, 3 had a total market capitalization exceeding 500 billion, with companies like BOE Technology Group and Pengding Holdings surpassing 1 trillion [1] - In terms of market performance, 11 stocks among the surveyed companies increased in value over the past 5 days, with notable gains from Zhongdian Port, Pengding Holdings, and New Times, showing increases of 20.53%, 15.78%, and 14.00% respectively [1][2] - Conversely, 9 stocks experienced declines, with the largest drops seen in Juxin Technology, Sunong Bank, and Zhongtong Bus, with decreases of 5.56%, 4.44%, and 3.34% respectively [1][2] Group 3 - In terms of capital flow, 7 stocks saw net inflows over the past 5 days, with Ice Wheel Environment leading with a net inflow of 100 million, followed by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Sirui Pu with inflows of 47.79 million and 47.21 million respectively [2] - Among the surveyed companies, 10 released half-year performance forecasts, with 9 expecting profit increases and 1 expecting profitability, indicating a positive outlook for the majority [2] - Jilin Aodong is projected to have the highest net profit growth, with an expected median net profit of 1.263 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 135% [2]

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced significant fluctuations on July 18, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit up, while others like Zhongmin Resources and Tianqi Lithium also saw notable gains [1][2] - The main driver behind this market movement was a sudden announcement from Zangge Mining, which stated that its subsidiary was ordered to halt lithium resource development activities due to compliance issues [3][7] - The announcement highlighted a tightening of local government regulations regarding lithium resource development, signaling potential challenges for the industry [7] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, referred to as the "lithium mining twins," both released their half-year performance forecasts, with Tianqi expecting a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - Ganfeng Lithium, on the other hand, projected a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, although this was an improvement from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [8][9] - The differing strategies of the two companies in response to lithium price fluctuations were noted, with Tianqi adjusting its pricing mechanism to a monthly basis, while Ganfeng focused on expanding its battery business [10] Group 3 - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with prices continuing to decline, which has led to inventory pressures [10] - Recent data indicated that the price of lithium carbonate futures had reached a new high of 70,980 yuan per ton, marking a 4.32% increase [2][11] - The supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with rising costs for lithium raw materials and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting potential support for prices in the near term [11][12] Group 4 - Policy measures are being implemented to support the lithium carbonate market, including the elimination of inefficient production capacities and government stockpiling of industrial-grade lithium carbonate [12][13] - The overall sentiment in the market is currently characterized by a rebound phase driven by market emotions, although the reality of weak fundamentals may limit significant price increases [13]