证券代码：000408 证券简称：藏格矿业 公告编号：2024-020 藏格矿业股份有限公司 关于控股股东减持股份预披露的公告 西藏藏格创业投资集团有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、 完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 特别提示： 藏格矿业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东西藏藏格创业投资集 团有限公司（以下简称"藏格集团"）持有公司股份 361,588,493 股，占公司总股 本（剔除已回购股份）的 23.02%，计划自本公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内以大宗交易方式减持其持有的公司股份不超过 15,800,000 股，即不超过公 司总股本（剔除已回购股份）的 1.01%。 公司近日收到控股股东藏格集团出具的《股票减持计划告知函》，现将有关 情况公告如下： | 股东名称 | 股东性质 | 持股数量（股） | 占公司总股本比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 西藏藏格创业投资集 | 控股股东 | 361,588,493 | 23.02% | | 团有限公司 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's main products have seen a price decline, leading to a decrease in performance for 2023. The company reported a revenue of 5.226 billion yuan, down 36.22% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.420 billion yuan, down 39.52% year-on-year. The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,709.64 yuan/ton, down 28.6%, and lithium carbonate was 216,900 yuan/ton, down 52.46% [5][6] - The company produced 1.0942 million tons of potassium chloride in 2023, exceeding its production plan by 109.42%, and sold 1.2934 million tons, achieving 107.78% of its sales plan. For lithium carbonate, it produced 12,062.5 tons, meeting 100.52% of its production plan, but sold only 10,314.5 tons, achieving 85.95% of its sales plan [5] - The first phase of the Mali Cuo Salt Lake lithium carbonate project, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, is expected to be operational by the end of 2024. The company currently has a potassium chloride production capacity of 2 million tons/year and a lithium carbonate production capacity of 10,000 tons/year, making it the second-largest potassium chloride producer and a leading lithium salt producer in China [5] - The second phase of the Julong Copper Mine expansion is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, with projected investment returns reaching new highs. The company holds a 30.78% stake in Julong Copper, which generated an investment income of approximately 1.296 billion yuan in 2023 [5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.659 billion yuan, 7.281 billion yuan, and 11.938 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 2.770 billion yuan, 5.266 billion yuan, and 8.048 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.75, 3.33, and 5.09 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.226 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.420 billion yuan, with significant declines in both metrics compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company expects a revenue decrease of 29.98% in 2024, followed by a substantial recovery with an expected growth of 98.99% in 2025 and 63.95% in 2026 [6] Production and Sales - The company successfully exceeded its production and sales targets for potassium chloride in 2023, while lithium carbonate sales fell short of expectations [5] - Future production plans include 1 million tons of potassium chloride and 10,500 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 [5] Project Developments - The Mali Cuo Salt Lake lithium project and various exploration projects in Laos are progressing, indicating strong growth potential in lithium and potassium salt businesses [5] - The Julong Copper Mine expansion is set to significantly increase copper production capacity, enhancing investment returns [5]

证 券 2024 年 03 月 27 日 研 究 钾锂价跌盈利承压，巨龙铜矿收益大幅增长 报 告 —藏格矿业（000408.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 藏格矿业发布 2023 年度报告：公司 2023 年实现营业收入 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 52.26 亿元，同比减少 36.22%；归母净利润 34.20 亿元，同 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 比减少 39.52%；扣除非经常性损益后的归母净利润 35.75 亿 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 元，同比减少 37.25%。 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 投资要点 联系人：刘韩 S1050122080022 liuhan@cfsc.com.cn ▌ 钾锂产销良好，售价略有下滑 基本数据 2024-03-26 （1）氯化钾：2023 年公司产销分别为 109.42、129.34 万 当前股价（元） 29.65 吨，实现氯化钾营业收入 32.15 亿元，同比下降 16.16%；毛 总市值（亿元） 469 利率 56.2 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 藏格矿业（000408） 2023 年年报点评：碳酸锂成本优势维持，公 2024 年 03月 25日 司维持高分红 证券分析师 曾朵红 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 盈[T 利ab 预le_ 测EP 与S 估] 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 营业总收入（百万元） 8,194 5,226 3,672 3,591 3,595 执业证书：S0600517120002 同比 126.19% -36.22% -29.73% -2.20% 0.10% 021-60199793 归母净利润（百万元） 5,655 3,420 2,692 3,069 4,045 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 同比 296.19% -39.52% -21.28% 14.01% 31.81% 证券分析师 岳斯瑶 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 3.58 2.16 1.70 1.94 2.56 执业证书：S0600522090009 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 8.11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 3.42 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 39.52% year-on-year, with operating revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, down 36.22% year-on-year [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of approximately 2.51 billion yuan for 2023, which accounts for 73.48% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5] - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion project has been approved, which is expected to increase the production capacity to 350,000 tons per day by the end of 2025 [5][6] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 5.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.42 billion yuan, down 39.52% year-on-year [7][14] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw an operating income of 1.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.45 billion yuan, down 69.69% year-on-year [5][7] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.27 billion yuan, 3.56 billion yuan, and 3.81 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.07 yuan, 2.25 yuan, and 2.41 yuan [6][14] Project Development - The company is making steady progress on key projects, including the Ma Mi Cuo Salt Lake project and various potassium salt mining projects in Laos, with significant milestones achieved in environmental assessments and exploration work [5][6] - The company has completed 9 out of 10 necessary approvals for the Ma Mi Cuo project and is advancing in other mining projects in Laos [5][6] Valuation - The company is expected to have a reasonable value range of 33.12 to 37.26 yuan based on a PE ratio of 16-18 times for 2024 [6][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zangge Mining [1][2] - Previous rating was also "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to generate significant investment returns, with cost advantages becoming more apparent [1] - The target price has been raised to 34.65 CNY from the previous forecast of 31.05 CNY [1] - The company's performance in 2023 is impacted by declining prices of potassium and lithium salts, but the Jilong Copper Mine is expected to provide substantial investment returns [1][2] - The cost advantage in lithium extraction from lakes is notable, with a continuous increase in resource self-sufficiency [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 52.26 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 36.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 34.20 billion CNY, down 39.52% year-on-year [1] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2025 to 1.65 CNY and 1.91 CNY respectively, with a projected EPS of 2.53 CNY for 2026 [1] Production and Sales - The production and sales of potassium chloride were 1.0942 million tons and 1.2934 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year change of -16.26% and +17.43% [1] - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2709.64 CNY per ton, down 28.60% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.20% [1] Investment Projects - The company is progressing well with its potassium fertilizer projects, and the Jilong Copper Mine expansion has been approved [1] - The Jilong Copper Mine is expected to contribute significantly to the company's investment returns, with a projected annual output increase post-expansion [1] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the upward trend in copper prices is likely to enhance the company's investment returns [1] - The company is also focusing on enhancing resource self-sufficiency through strategic investments in lithium projects [1]

2024年3月22日 公司研究 氯化钾及碳酸锂价跌业绩承压，持续加大钾锂资源储备 ——藏格矿业（000408.SZ）2023 年年报点评 增持（维持） 要点 当前价：30.64元 事件： 作者 公司发布2023年年报。2023年，公司实现营收52.26亿元，同比减少36.22%； 分析师：赵乃迪 实现归母净利润 34.20 亿元，同比减少 39.52%；实现扣非后归母净利润 35.75 亿 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 元，同比减少37.25%。2023Q4，公司单季度实现营收10.37亿元，同比减少58.23%， zhaond@ebscn.com 环比减少25.58%；实现归母净利润4.51亿元，同比减少69.69%，环比减少52.11%。 分析师：周家诺 点评： 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 氯化钾及碳酸锂价跌业绩承压，巨龙铜业投资收益持续大幅增长。2023年全年，公 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 司氯化钾和碳酸锂业务营收分别为32.2亿元和19.8亿元，同比分别减少16.2%和 54.2%；氯化钾和碳酸锂的销售均 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 公司快报 2024 年 03 月 22 日 藏 格矿业(000408.SZ) 证券研究报告 巨龙投资收益可观，公司高分红凸显投 钾肥 投资评级 增持-A 资价值 维持评级 6个月目标价 33.15元 公司发布 2023 年度报告 股价 (2024-03-21) 30.64元 公司 2023 年实现营业收入52.26 亿元，同比-36.22%；实现归母净利 润 34.20 亿元，同比-39.52%；实现扣非归母净利润 35.75 亿元，同 交易数据 比-37.25%。其中2023年Q4营业收入 10.37亿元，同比-58.23%、环 总市值(百万元) 48,424.53 比-25.58%；实现归母净利润4.51 亿元，同比-69.69%、环比-52.11%%； 流通市值(百万元) 48,424.03 实现扣非归母净利润 6.26亿元，同比-58.98%、环比-34.08%。 总股本(百万股) 1,580.44 流通股本(百万股) 1,580.42 碳酸锂跌价影响利润，巨龙铜业投资收益可观 12个月价格区间 20.92/31.48元 ✔氯化钾：（1）产销方面， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company's copper segment investment returns are significant, and the high dividend payout ratio is maintained [1] - The company's salt lake lithium extraction has a cost advantage, and the expansion projects in the potassium, lithium, and copper sectors are progressing simultaneously [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 24.2, 30.2, and 44.3 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 11 times as of March 20, 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% [1] - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.7% [1] - The company's 2023 dividend payout ratio was 73.4%, exceeding expectations [1] Lithium Segment - In 2023, the lithium segment contributed approximately 1.3 billion yuan in performance, with a net profit per ton of 126,000 yuan [1] - The actual production and sales of lithium in 2023 were 12,100 tons and 10,300 tons, respectively, slightly below the target [1] - The average selling price of lithium in 2023 was 192,000 yuan per ton, with a discount coefficient of about 96% in Q4 2023 [1] - The production cost per ton of lithium in 2023 was 37,000 yuan, an increase of 6,000 yuan year-on-year, but still significantly advantageous compared to ore-based lithium extraction [1] Potassium Segment - In 2023, the potassium segment contributed approximately 980 million yuan in performance, with a net profit per ton of 760 yuan [1] - The actual production and sales of potassium chloride in 2023 were 1.09 million tons and 1.29 million tons, respectively, exceeding the target [1] - The average selling price of potassium chloride in 2023 was 2,486 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% [1] - The production cost per ton of potassium chloride in 2023 was 1,089 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1] Copper Segment - In 2023, the company's investment in the Julong Copper Mine yielded significant returns, with a net profit of 4.21 billion yuan and a net profit per ton of 27,000 yuan [1] - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Julong Copper and received an investment return of 1.3 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The second phase of the Julong Copper Mine expansion project was approved in February 2024, with plans to increase annual copper production to 300,000-350,000 tons and molybdenum concentrate to 13,000 tons by the end of 2025 [1] - The third phase of the project plans to add 250,000 tons of copper production capacity, with a total capacity of 600,000 tons after completion [1] Production and Sales Guidance - The company's production and sales guidance for 2024 is 1.05 million tons of potassium chloride and 10,500 tons of lithium carbonate [1] Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to be 5.23, 3.28, 5.47, and 6.65 billion yuan in 2023-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -36.2%, -37.2%, 66.5%, and 21.6%, respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.42, 2.42, 3.02, and 4.43 billion yuan in 2023-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -39.5%, -29.1%, 24.4%, and 46.8%, respectively [2] - The EPS is expected to be 2.16, 1.53, 1.91, and 2.80 yuan in 2023-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 20, 16, and 11 times [2]

Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 522,572.12 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 36.22%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,622,594,323.02 million RMB, with basic earnings per share of 0.73 RMB[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was ¥3,419,880,869.14, down 39.52% from ¥5,654,971,920.07 in 2022[14] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 45.05% to ¥2,984,047,979.57 in 2023 from ¥5,430,490,056.07 in 2022[14] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were ¥2.18, a decline of 38.94% compared to ¥3.57 in 2022[14] - The company reported a total of ¥155,231,852.20 in non-recurring losses for 2023, compared to a loss of ¥42,181,475.19 in 2022[17] - The company achieved operating revenue of CNY 522,572.12 million, a year-on-year decrease of 36.22%[52] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 341,988.09 million, down 39.52% year-on-year[52] Revenue Breakdown - Potassium chloride revenue was 321,531.06 million RMB, down 16.16% year-on-year, while lithium carbonate revenue was 197,998.37 million RMB, down 54.20% year-on-year[2] - The revenue from potassium chloride was CNY 3,215,310,642.93, accounting for 61.53% of total revenue, while lithium carbonate revenue accounted for 37.89%[59] - The average selling price of potassium chloride was CNY 2,709.64 per ton, a decrease of 28.60% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.20%[54] - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was CNY 216,916.15 per ton, down 52.46% year-on-year, while the average cost increased by 18.76% to CNY 37,404.81 per ton[54] Asset Management - The total assets of the company reached 10,624,520,305.94 million RMB, while the net assets attributable to shareholders were 9,453,791,299.82 million RMB[2] - The total assets at the end of 2023 were ¥14,091,584,562.19, an increase of 4.07% from ¥13,540,041,089.37 at the end of 2022[14] - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 7.70% to ¥13,057,776,309.67 at the end of 2023 from ¥12,123,803,112.88 at the end of 2022[14] Shareholder Information - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.00 RMB per 10 shares (including tax) based on a total of 1,570,514,082 shares[4] - The top shareholder, Tibet Zangge Chuangye Investment Group Co., Ltd., holds 361,588,493 shares, accounting for 22.88% of the total shares[3] - The company has distributed a total cash dividend of 5,763.77 million RMB over the past three years, with 450.74 million RMB in cash dividends for 2022, accounting for 79.71% of the net profit attributable to shareholders[101] Market Trends and Strategic Focus - Global potassium fertilizer demand is expected to increase due to rising food prices and heightened food security awareness, supporting steady growth in domestic fertilizer demand[19] - Lithium is a core raw material for industries like electric vehicles and energy storage, with a rigid growth in demand driven by global decarbonization trends[19] - The company aims to enhance potassium fertilizer production efficiency and maintain long-term stability in production, solidifying its position as the largest potassium fertilizer producer in China[20] - The company is committed to aligning with national strategies for food security and green economy development, ensuring sustainable growth in its core business areas[19] Research and Development - The company has a total of 15 patents filed, with 3 granted and 12 under review, focusing on lithium extraction technologies[43] - The company has successfully applied its proprietary lithium extraction technology in a production facility with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons[43] - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through continuous R&D investments and technological innovations in resource extraction[98] Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company is committed to sustainable development, focusing on environmental protection and resource management, including water and waste management initiatives[49] - The company emphasizes environmental protection and sustainable development, aligning with national environmental requirements[153] - The company donated a total of 2.184 million yuan to support educational initiatives through the "Cangge Mining Charity Project" in 2023[157] Governance and Compliance - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate financial reporting and the responsibility of management for the report's content[4] - The company has established a complete and independent financial accounting system, ensuring compliance with accounting laws and regulations[118] - The company has a clear ESG framework, actively integrating ESG principles into its operations and promoting sustainable development[113] Future Outlook - The company aims to produce 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2023[22] - In 2024, the company plans to produce 1 million tons of potassium chloride and 10,500 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with sales targets of 1.042 million tons and 10,500 tons respectively[84] - The company is positioned for future growth with a strategic focus on resource development and market expansion[127]