编号：2025-4-29 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 ★分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 股东大会交流 | | 参与单位名称及 | 天风证券：张潇倩；高盛：刘晔；东吴证券：孙瑜；中金公司： | | | 屈宁；广发证券：周源；国泰海通证券：李梓梧等共计 208 人。 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 15:30-16:30 | | 地点 | 线上 | | 上市公司接待人 | | | 员姓名 | 王川、赵亮、姜通 | | | 1.公司一季度销售情况 近年来，公司以高质量发展为导向，全力推进"数智泸州老窖" 建设，保证渠道良性和价盘稳定，力争赢得长周期产业价值回报和企 | | | 业的可持续发展。一季度公司依托数字化营销体系，积极推动消费者 "开瓶"，保证价盘稳定和渠道健康，全国范围内库存水平良性，主 | | | 要大单品销售稳健，动销优于回款表现。 | | | 2.公司今年总体营销思路 | | | 公司管理层提出 6 大思 ...

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS April 27, 2025 02:38 PM GMT Luzhou Lao Jiao Co. Ltd | Asia Pacific 2024/1Q25 Results in Line; Dividend Policy Announced Reaction to earnings Key Takeaways Revenue by price segment: Mid-high end liquor sales rose 3% yoy (88.4% of liquor sales) and low-end liquor sales increased 6% yoy in 2024. Margin trends: OPM declined 1.0ppt yoy in 1Q25, with narrowed GPM on a lower product ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 performance report reveals a stable position in the liquor industry but highlights challenges amid deep industry adjustments [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.473 billion yuan, growing by 1.71%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [2] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash payout of 8.758 billion yuan, representing 65% of net profit [2] Dividend Policy - Luzhou Laojiao announced a three-year dividend plan, committing to cash dividend ratios of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for the years 2025-2027, with annual dividends not less than 8.5 billion yuan [2] Product Performance - The core revenue driver remains the high-end product Guojiao 1573, contributing 27.585 billion yuan, nearly 90% of total revenue [3] - However, the fourth quarter revenue of 6.896 billion yuan showed a significant decline in growth rate compared to the first three quarters [3] Inventory Concerns - As of the end of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's inventory value reached 12.3 billion yuan, with turnover days exceeding 1,100, which is significantly higher than peers like Wuliangye and Fenjiu [3] - The company is investing 4.783 billion yuan in smart brewing technology upgrades to improve inventory turnover efficiency [3] Strategic Challenges - Luzhou Laojiao faces common industry challenges such as consumption segmentation and inventory digestion, while balancing price maintenance and market expansion [3] - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 86.51% and a return on equity of 30.44%, reflecting its strong profitability as a high-end liquor enterprise [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 145.44 yuan over the next six months [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable growth trajectory while managing costs effectively. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a slight decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio steadily, with targets of at least 65%, 70%, and 75% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31,196 million yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 2.01% for 2025 and 3.70% for 2026 [4][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 13,473 million yuan in 2024 to 15,773 million yuan by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.66% [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 9.18 yuan in 2024 to 10.72 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.64x and 11.53x [4][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of -3% over the past month and 8% over the past three months, while it has declined by 31% over the past year [8]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 8 million shares, with a total market capitalization of approximately 181.93 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [6] Core Views - Luzhou Laojiao's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.196 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 8.758 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 65% [1] - The company aims for a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, with a minimum annual cash dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rate has slowed down, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor revenues at 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 2.77% and 7.15% [2] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, aligning with market expectations [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is 87.54% and 86.51% respectively, with a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 43.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 13.857 billion yuan and 14.989 billion yuan, representing a 15% and 18% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 9.41 yuan, 10.18 yuan, and 11.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]

白酒行业调整期的压力传导至头部企业，泸州老窖2024年业绩增速下降。 过去财年中，泸州老窖全年实现营收311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%，净利润134.73亿元，同比增长 1.71%，增速较2023年的双位数增速明显放缓。进入2025年一季度，公司营收93.52亿元，同比增长 1.78%，净利润45.93亿元，同比微增0.41%，延续了低速增长态势。 2024年，白酒行业上市公司整体告别高增长，转而在经营上求稳，泸州老窖的业绩也反映出这一特征。 根据中国酒业协会发布的《2024中国白酒市场中期研究报告》，超过60%的经销商和终端零售商反映库 存同比增加。2025年3月的公开发言中，中国酒业协会指出，酒类去库存周期至今尚未扭转，行业仍需 主动降低增长预期，调整发展节奏。 对于行业所面临的库存去化问题，泸州老窖也自4月下旬起开始全线停货，通过控量的方式主动调节市 场。 "国窖1573"和"泸州老窖"是企业两大主要经营品牌，其中国窖品牌销售额约为200亿元、泸州老窖品牌 超100亿元。 公司将主营产品分为中高档酒类和其他酒类，中高档酒类指含税销售价格≥150元/瓶的产品，主要包括 国窖1573、泸州老窖特曲、百年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported its worst performance in a decade, with revenue growth slowing significantly and net profit growth plummeting to a near standstill in 2024 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue reached 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 3.19%, while net profit grew by just 1.71% to 13.473 billion yuan [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed further decline, with revenue and net profit growth dropping to 1.78% and 0.41%, respectively [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 80.14% to 19.182 billion yuan [2] Sales and Market Dynamics - Luzhou Laojiao's sales volume for white liquor in 2024 was 103,761.06 tons, a growth of 7.77%, down from 11.71% the previous year [6][7] - The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 88.43% of total revenue, but the overall net profit growth reached a ten-year low [3][5] - The company faced challenges with price inversion, particularly with its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, which saw its market price drop below 900 yuan per bottle, impacting dealer profit margins [10] Inventory and Cost Management - As of the end of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's inventory reached 13.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.24% [10][11] - The company managed to achieve slight net profit growth primarily through significant cost reductions, including a 10.97% decrease in sales expenses [5][10] Competitive Position - Luzhou Laojiao's market position has weakened, falling behind competitors like Yanghe and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a revenue gap widening from 11 billion yuan in 2022 to 17 billion yuan in 2023 [12][14] - The company has not met its strategic goal of returning to the top three in the industry, citing external market factors as a significant challenge [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is showing a stable recovery with major companies like Moutai setting a 9% revenue growth target, Wuliangye aligning with macro indicators, and Luzhou Laojiao emphasizing steady growth. The supply-side pressure in the industry has significantly eased, and channel feedback is expected to improve [1][3]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have reported double-digit growth, slightly exceeding market expectations, while Luzhou Laojiao's cash flow performance is better than its apparent data [3]. Beer Industry - The beer sector performed well in Q1 2025, with small breweries like Zhujiang and Yanjing showing outstanding results. Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer met expectations, and structural improvements are noted despite pressure on ton prices [4][5]. Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to trend towards health and functionality, with Dongpeng Beverage showing high growth and new products like health water from Lululemon gaining attention. Nongfu Spring is also highlighted as a company to watch [6]. Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is experiencing supply-side adjustments, with Yili's Q1 report showing positive revenue growth. The improvement in demand is expected to resonate with the raw milk cycle, while Mengniu is noted for its defensive attributes [7]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is exhibiting a new consumption growth trend, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou revising their forecasts upward. Yuyou has entered new channels, and Ganyuan's overseas market prospects for Q2 are promising [8]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is showing a trend of low performance followed by high recovery, particularly in sports apparel. Anta Sports is effectively managing multiple brands, while home textile companies like Luolai and Mercury Home Textile are seen as defensive investments [11][12]. Key Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended stocks include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Fenjiu and Wuliangye [10]. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and its strong dividend yield [5]. - **Dairy**: Yili and Mengniu are highlighted as key players [10]. - **Beverages**: Nongfu Spring and Lululemon are recommended [10]. - **Snacks**: Weilong, Yuyou, and Ganyuan are noted for their growth potential [10]. - **Textiles**: Anta Sports and home textile brands like Luolai are recommended for their defensive qualities [11][12]. Additional Insights - The pig farming sector is currently valued highly, with pig prices remaining elevated, but the breeding sector's outlook is cautious due to limited capacity recovery. Key companies to watch include Muyuan, Shennong Group, and Dekang [2][20]. - The poultry industry, particularly yellow feathered chickens, is facing challenges with prices down from last year, but companies like Lihua and Wens continue to expand [21]. - The retail sector is experiencing rapid growth, especially in the snack segment, with companies like Liangpinpuzi expected to open numerous new stores [33][34]. - The home appliance industry is focusing on tariff adjustments and new consumption trends, with companies like Vanward Electric and TCL Electronics showing strong performance [37][38].

在宏观变局与行业新局交织的2024年，泸州老窖凭借稳健的经营策略与创新驱动，在年度财报中展现出 稳健的增长势头。2024年，泸州老窖实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.18%，归属于上市公司股东 的净利润达134.73亿元，增幅达1.71%，各项业绩指标再创历史新高，营收与利润双增长，彰显其在复 杂市场环境下的卓越韧性。 "泸州老窖取得了'十四五'发展的阶段性胜利。今天的泸州老窖，'稳'的基础在筑牢，'进'的力度在加 大，'新'的动能在成长，'好'的因素在累积，这更加坚定了我们在新周期勇往直前的信心和底气。"不久 前，泸州老窖董事长刘淼在2024-2025年度泸州老窖经销商表彰暨营销会议上表示。 另一个值得关注的点在于，尽管去年白酒行业处于深度调整期，酒类消费市场进入到存量期，行业竞争 加剧，但泸州老窖经营性现金流表现强劲，2024年经营活动现金流净额达到191.82亿元，同比增长 80.14%。这反映出泸州老窖在经营质量上的显著提升。 数智化转型成绩斐然，构建穿越周期新动能 2024年，泸州老窖高端化战略深化成效明显。作为核心大单品的国窖1573，年销售收入成功突破200亿 元大关，稳居中国三大高端白 ...

4月27日，泸州老窖发布2024年度业绩报告。在酒水市场处于深度调整期的背景下，泸州老窖仍交出营收净利双增长的成绩单，报告期内实现营收311.96 亿元，同比增长3.19%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%。泸州老窖计划每10股派发现金红利45.92元（含税），公司已于 2025年1月24日实施2024年度中期分红方案，向全体股东每10股派发现金13.58元（含税），共计派发近20亿元（含税）。 2024年，白酒行业整体仍在调整，行业集中度进一步提升，高端化、品牌化发展势头持续加强；2024年，同样是泸州老窖酒传统酿制技艺不断代传承的 700周年。这一年泸州老窖在良性发展的基础上，不仅取得了稳健业绩，还在高端化、数智化、价值提升等方面有了新突破，展现了浓香鼻祖的韧性及实 力。 高端品牌势能持续上扬，"双品牌、三品系、大单品"全线发力 从2024年的产品表现来看，泸州老窖旗下国窖1573等高端产品，在市场上展现出稳定的销售业绩，成为推动公司收入增长的核心要素。 全面推进数智化战略转型，赋能生产、渠道、市场管理升级 在2024年报中，除了披露相关数据及发展规划，泸州老窖还提及数智 ...