Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with notable dividend returns [11] - The growth is driven by the "Tequ 60" product, with an optimized channel structure [1][2] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and maintaining strategic pricing [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [11] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.352 billion yuan, growing 1.78% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% [11] - The gross and net profit margins for 2024 were 87.54% and 43.27%, respectively, with slight declines observed in Q1 2025 [3] Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, up 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, increasing by 7.15% [1] - The traditional channel revenue was 29.573 billion yuan, growing 3.20%, while emerging channels generated 1.479 billion yuan, up 4.14% [2] - The company saw a decrease in the number of domestic and international distributors, but the overall scale per distributor increased by 4.81% to 16.5582 million yuan [2] Dividend Policy - The company has a three-year dividend plan, committing to cash dividends of at least 65%, 70%, and 75% of net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a minimum of 8.5 billion yuan each year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 1.00%, 6.77%, and 7.04% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 0.98%, 6.70%, and 7.11% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.24, 9.86, and 10.56 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.39, 12.55, and 11.71 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][16] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.879 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5][6][8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 13.94 billion, 14.49 billion, and 15.24 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 3.9%, and 5.2%. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.47, 9.84, and 10.35 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.1, 12.6, and 12.0 times [5][10][11]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with sales volume increasing by 14.4% and price per ton decreasing by 10.2%. Other liquor categories generated revenue of 3.47 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year [6][8]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 87.5%, while the net profit margin fell by 0.6 percentage points to 43.2% [8][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on stabilizing market order and improving efficiency in expense allocation, implementing a five-step system to ensure a steady repayment rhythm for distributors [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is maintained at "Buy" [1][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 16.9% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 29.9% [5][6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5]. - The company is focusing on long-term healthy development by adjusting growth expectations based on product pricing and market order, maintaining a long-term perspective [5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 27.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with sales volume increasing by 14.4% and price decreasing by 10.2% [6]. - The company’s sales cash collection in 2024 was 40.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, which was higher than the revenue growth rate [7]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 87.5%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 43.2% [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 9.47 yuan, with net profits expected to be 13.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [10][11].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing intensified structural differentiation and competition, with a focus on self-transformation and finding new opportunities amidst deep adjustments [1] - In 2024, the production volume of white liquor from 989 large-scale enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is expected to reach 796.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The industry is characterized by strong concentration, with leading brands and regions playing a crucial role in market dynamics [1] Industry Overview - The white liquor market is undergoing a reshuffle, with a clear trend of strong concentration and differentiation, leading to fierce competition among top brands [1][15] - Major brands are innovating their marketing strategies and product offerings to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [15][23] Market Dynamics - In key markets like Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, leading brands dominate the sales landscape, with significant market shares held by top players such as Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - The competitive landscape varies by region, with local brands often struggling against national brands in markets like Henan and Guangdong [4][8][9] Brand Strategies - Wuliangye is focusing on expanding its market presence through innovative product launches and targeted marketing strategies aimed at various consumption scenarios [16] - Moutai is enhancing its brand image through cultural marketing and customer engagement initiatives, aiming to adapt to the evolving consumer landscape [17] - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing a dual-brand strategy to enhance market penetration and consumer experience [18] - Shanxi Fenjiu is emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its marketing approach to strengthen brand loyalty [19][20] - Yanghe is leveraging cultural events and sponsorships to enhance brand visibility and market share [21] Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with leading companies focusing on innovation, market expansion, and adapting to consumer preferences [23] - The emphasis on quality, cultural relevance, and consumer engagement will be critical for brands to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing market [23]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit decrease of 29.9% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 87.5% in 2024, with a further decline of 1.9 percentage points to 86.5% in Q1 2025 [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 43.3%, while in Q1 2025, it fell by 0.5 percentage points to 49.3% [2] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated a revenue of 27.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with sales volume up 14.4% but average price per ton down 10.2% [1] - The company is focusing on consumer cultivation and channel development to maintain market growth, with the Guojiao brand remaining in the 20 billion yuan category [1] - Traditional and emerging channels achieved revenues of 29.57 billion yuan (+3.2%) and 1.48 billion yuan (+4.2%) respectively in 2024 [1] Group 3: Dividend and Future Outlook - The company announced a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [1] - The management has set a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65%/70%/75% for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) each year [3] - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, with a target EPS of 9.39 yuan, 10.31 yuan, and 11.31 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 13x, 12x, and 11x respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing adjustment in the liquor industry, Luzhou Laojiao has demonstrated resilient growth through strategic adjustments, achieving revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41%, indicating growth in both revenue and net profit [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 19.18 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 80.14%, showcasing the health of the company's operations [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77%, maintaining stable gross margins [2] Group 2: Brand Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has established a clear brand system focusing on "dual brands, three product lines, and major products," which has contributed to its robust performance [2] - The brand "Guojiao 1573" has entered the 20 billion yuan super product category, solidifying its position among China's top three high-end liquor brands [2] - The company emphasizes high-end brand strategy, with initiatives such as the "China Strong Aroma 700 Years" theme exhibition and various cultural events to enhance brand visibility [3] Group 3: Digital Transformation - Luzhou Laojiao is leading in digital transformation within the liquor industry, with the Huangyi Brewing Ecological Park being the largest in terms of solid-state liquor production and automation [6] - The introduction of the "five-code association" system allows for comprehensive tracking of products from production to consumption, enhancing marketing strategies and operational efficiency [6][7] - The company aims to explore various digital models in 2025, focusing on digital growth and customer profit levels [7] Group 4: Youth Engagement - Luzhou Laojiao is actively targeting younger consumers by launching products that cater to their preferences, such as low-alcohol options and innovative beverages [8] - The "Jiao Master Festival" has evolved into a significant event for engaging with younger audiences, enhancing brand interaction and cultural resonance [9] - The company's strategy aims to balance traditional business with emerging consumer trends, positioning itself for future growth in a changing market landscape [9]

编号：2025-4-29 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 ★分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 股东大会交流 | | 参与单位名称及 | 天风证券：张潇倩；高盛：刘晔；东吴证券：孙瑜；中金公司： | | | 屈宁；广发证券：周源；国泰海通证券：李梓梧等共计 208 人。 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 15:30-16:30 | | 地点 | 线上 | | 上市公司接待人 | | | 员姓名 | 王川、赵亮、姜通 | | | 1.公司一季度销售情况 近年来，公司以高质量发展为导向，全力推进"数智泸州老窖" 建设，保证渠道良性和价盘稳定，力争赢得长周期产业价值回报和企 | | | 业的可持续发展。一季度公司依托数字化营销体系，积极推动消费者 "开瓶"，保证价盘稳定和渠道健康，全国范围内库存水平良性，主 | | | 要大单品销售稳健，动销优于回款表现。 | | | 2.公司今年总体营销思路 | | | 公司管理层提出 6 大思 ...

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS April 27, 2025 02:38 PM GMT Luzhou Lao Jiao Co. Ltd | Asia Pacific 2024/1Q25 Results in Line; Dividend Policy Announced Reaction to earnings Key Takeaways Revenue by price segment: Mid-high end liquor sales rose 3% yoy (88.4% of liquor sales) and low-end liquor sales increased 6% yoy in 2024. Margin trends: OPM declined 1.0ppt yoy in 1Q25, with narrowed GPM on a lower product ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 performance report reveals a stable position in the liquor industry but highlights challenges amid deep industry adjustments [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.473 billion yuan, growing by 1.71%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [2] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash payout of 8.758 billion yuan, representing 65% of net profit [2] Dividend Policy - Luzhou Laojiao announced a three-year dividend plan, committing to cash dividend ratios of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for the years 2025-2027, with annual dividends not less than 8.5 billion yuan [2] Product Performance - The core revenue driver remains the high-end product Guojiao 1573, contributing 27.585 billion yuan, nearly 90% of total revenue [3] - However, the fourth quarter revenue of 6.896 billion yuan showed a significant decline in growth rate compared to the first three quarters [3] Inventory Concerns - As of the end of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's inventory value reached 12.3 billion yuan, with turnover days exceeding 1,100, which is significantly higher than peers like Wuliangye and Fenjiu [3] - The company is investing 4.783 billion yuan in smart brewing technology upgrades to improve inventory turnover efficiency [3] Strategic Challenges - Luzhou Laojiao faces common industry challenges such as consumption segmentation and inventory digestion, while balancing price maintenance and market expansion [3] - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 86.51% and a return on equity of 30.44%, reflecting its strong profitability as a high-end liquor enterprise [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 145.44 yuan over the next six months [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable growth trajectory while managing costs effectively. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a slight decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio steadily, with targets of at least 65%, 70%, and 75% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31,196 million yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 2.01% for 2025 and 3.70% for 2026 [4][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 13,473 million yuan in 2024 to 15,773 million yuan by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.66% [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 9.18 yuan in 2024 to 10.72 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.64x and 11.53x [4][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of -3% over the past month and 8% over the past three months, while it has declined by 31% over the past year [8]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 8 million shares, with a total market capitalization of approximately 181.93 billion yuan [5].