食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天 批价或止跌触底 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《茅台韧性凸显，建议长期配置布局 —行业周报》-2025.11.30 消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部重视布局 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：内需政策赋能消费，白酒进入深度调整期 12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.0%，一级子行业排名第 11，跑 赢沪深 300 约 1.3pct，子行业中烘焙食品（+8.0%）、零食（+7.5%）、预加工食 品（+5.6% ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 政策催化，消费转变可期 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块五粮液 1218 定 调 2026 年高质量动销+份额提升，大众品板块乳制品产业链周期反转可期。 投资要点： ——食品饮料行业周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | [Table_Report] | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com ...

21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 宜宾报道 "十五五"即将启幕，白酒行业挑战与机遇并存，头部白酒将如何应对？ 12月19日，2025中国国际名酒博览会在宜宾开幕。白酒T9企业核心高层集体到场，茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华，洋河股份（002304）党委书记、董事 长顾宇等今年刚履新的"一把手"纷纷亮相。 当天下午的2025世界名酒发展大会上，头部白酒的核心高管纷纷就行业形势发表看法。发言嘉宾们共同谈到，酒业的政策地位迎来了历史性提升。 "今年最振奋人心的消息是酿酒产业认定为'历史经典产业'，无疑这是中国酒业发展的最强大推动力。"中国酒业协会理事长宋书玉表示。 进入21世纪后，白酒产业曾连续多年被列入限制类产业目录，一直到2020年才终于"解禁"。今年10月，工信部发布了《关于推动历史经典产业高质量发展的 指导意见》，酿酒产业被列入"历史经典产业"，政策地位再次变化。 "酿酒产业不仅是普通消费品产业，更是中华文明的智慧结晶和民族瑰宝，也承载着传承中华文明、增强文化自信的历史使命。这为白酒产业发展提供了非 常重要的历史机遇。"中国工程院院士、原北京工商大学校长、中国酒业协会战略专家孙宝国指出。 头部白酒高管也普遍将其视为整 ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.66% on December 19, with *ST Rock leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45, up 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.22, up 0.66% [1] - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed varied performance, with Yingjia Gongjiu rising by 3.09% to a closing price of 40.09, and *ST Rock falling by 4.91% to 3.29 [2] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 564 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 264 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Wuliangye and Moutai had minimal price changes, with Wuliangye at 110.53 (up 0.09%) and Moutai at 1410.00 (up 0.21%) [2] - The liquidity dynamics showed that retail investors were more active, with significant inflows into stocks like Yingjia Gongjiu and Yanghe Co., despite overall institutional outflows [3]

来源：酒业内参 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时中收集到的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价周五整体 回调，未能延续前日反弹。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9081元，较昨日回落15 元，创下五天来新低。 数据来源:全国各大区合理分布的约200个采集点,包括但不限于 酒企指定经销商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等 原始数据:过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端零售价 【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 | 中国知名白酒大单品 | PER | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) 53度/500ml | | 1824/瓶 | -3元 | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) 53度/500ml | | 2292/瓶 | 2元 | | △ 五粮液普五八代 | | | | | 52度/500ml | 825/瓶 | 375- | | --- | --- | --- | | 青花汾20 53度/500ml | 380/瓶 | 2元- | | 国窖1573 52度/500 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时中收集到的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价周五整体 回调，未能延续前日反弹。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9081元，较昨日回落15 元，创下五天来新低。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交 终端零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可追溯的数 据。 | 中国知名白酒大单品 | PE | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) 53度/500ml | | 1824/瓶 | -3元 | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) 53度/500ml | | 2292/瓶 | 2元 | | △ 五粮液普五八代 | | | | | 52度/500ml | | 825/瓶 | 375- | | --- | - ...

摘要： 2025年，中国酒业正式步入深度调整期的"深水区"。面对宏观经济环境的复杂变化与消费需求的结构性转折，行业正经历着前所未有的变革与洗牌。华信人 咨询最新发布的《2025中国酒行业白皮书》显示，行业"马太效应"加剧，供需关系正在重构，去库存与稳价盘成为年度核心关键词。本文基于华信人咨询的 深度洞察及多家券商研报数据，从周期特征、竞争格局、消费趋势及未来展望四个维度，深度剖析中国酒业在颠覆中重塑的演进路径。 一、 周期之变：从"增量扩容"到"存量博弈"的深水区 2025年是中国酒业发展史上具有分水岭意义的一年。经过数年的调整蓄势，行业并未如乐观预期般迅速迎来V型反转，而是进入了更为漫长且痛苦的"磨 底"阶段。华信人咨询在《2025中国酒行业白皮书》中指出，本轮调整不同于以往的周期性波动，而是叠加了宏观经济周期、产业结构周期与消费代际更替 周期的"三期叠加"。 1. 头部集中度持续攀升 尽管行业整体承压，但头部名酒的市场份额却在逆势扩张。数据显示，2023年白酒行业产量、收入、利润的CR6（前六大企业）占比分别为14%、46%和 62%，且仍有较大提升空间。到了2025年，这一趋势更加明显。在上市酒企中，仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market has seen a rebound in the average retail price of the top ten products, ending a previous trend of continuous decline, with a slight overall increase in market sentiment [1]. Price Changes - The overall packaged price of the top ten products is 9096 yuan, which is an increase of 4 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Among the ten products, six experienced price increases while four saw declines [1]. - Notable price increases include: - Qinghua Lang: up 10 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Guizhou Moutai (Feitian): up 5 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujing Gong (Gong 20): up 3 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Guizhou Moutai (Jingpin): up 2 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Qinghua Fen 20 and Shuijing Jian Nan Chun: both up 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Price declines include: - Wuliangye (Pu Wu 8th generation): down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Guojiao 1573: down 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: down 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Xijiu Junpin: down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Sentiment - The market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery after a period of decline, with most brands experiencing price increases [1]. - The price increase of Moutai's main products is expected to boost confidence in the industry and market [1].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **large consumption sector**, highlighting the emergence of new consumer demands that drive growth in the sector through new products (personalized, green, low-carbon), new channels (snack chains, discount formats), and new business models (diverse consumption scenarios) supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Traditional Consumption Recovery**: The traditional consumption sector is expected to recover by 2026, driven by the release of residents' purchasing power and policy measures aimed at boosting employment and income stability. The food and beverage industry is stabilizing, with the liquor sector showing signs of fundamental stability and dairy products expected to recover quickly [1][5]. - **Commodity Market Trends**: The commodity market has shown a trend of high followed by low prices, with the government implementing various promotional policies to stimulate service consumption and domestic demand. The Ministry of Commerce has issued opinions to expand service consumption, aiming to enhance residents' quality of life and stimulate domestic demand potential [1][6][7]. - **Emerging Consumer Demands**: New consumer demands are impacting the large consumption sector through three main directions: the development of new products that meet diverse and personalized needs, the optimization of new channel structures, and the promotion of new business models that foster diverse consumption scenarios [2][4]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Social Services Sector Changes**: The social services sector is evolving to meet changing consumer demands, with slight increases in beauty care and retail sectors. Key areas of investment include outdoor sports, gold and jewelry, and cultural and trendy IPs, with recommendations for companies like Anta Sports and Lao Pu Gold [8][22]. - **Tourism Market Trends**: The tourism market is gradually recovering, with leading companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group adapting through technological innovation and marketing to meet the new demands of both young and elderly consumers. China Duty Free's Hainan business has benefited significantly from new duty-free policies [9][10]. - **Food and Beverage Sector Stability**: The food and beverage sector is stabilizing, with the liquor market facing challenges but showing resilience in mass consumption. The snack sector is experiencing performance differentiation, while dairy product demand is steady and supply is gradually clearing [12][17]. - **Investment Opportunities in Agriculture**: The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors present investment opportunities, particularly in pig farming and the pet industry, which is growing due to demographic changes and emotional needs [3][13][19]. - **Household Appliance Sector**: The household appliance industry is seeking structural highlights amid steady growth, with a focus on high-dividend white goods and improving profit margins in black goods. The market for robotic vacuum cleaners is also expected to grow due to technological advancements [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the large consumption sector and its various components, along with potential investment opportunities and market trends.

北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）12月17日尾盘，沪指3870.28点上涨1.19%。白酒板块2180.07点收盘 下跌0.34%，其中15只白酒股下跌，贵州茅台1433.10元/股收盘。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1433.10元/股，上涨0.78%；五粮液收盘价达113.40元/股，上涨0.35%； 山西汾酒收盘价达177.67元/股，下跌0.06%；泸州老窖收盘价达122.11元/股，下跌0.61%；洋河股份收 盘价达62.38元/股，上涨0.00%。 国金证券研报指出，当下至明年春节前是行业价盘最为承压的时期，市场对白酒行业价盘的悲观预期有 望环比修正，进一步夯实市场对白酒行业筑底的认知。考虑到此轮周期的动销底逐步探明，表观业绩压 力正加速释放，动销反馈环比持续改善确定性强、当下正值自上而下政策窗口期，叠加年末资金端有配 置再平衡的诉求，看好白酒板块的配置价值。 ...