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行业周报:白酒布局机会渐显,新消费择优长期持有-20250713
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 14:07
2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局,魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底,新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹,重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显,新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光(分析师) 张思敏(联系人) zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790123070080 核心观点:战略布局头部酒企,坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日,食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%,一级子行业排名第 23,与沪深 300 基本持平,子行业中白酒(+1.4%)、保健品(+1.4%)、啤酒(+1.2%)表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化,新消费标的高位震荡;传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...
今夜,A股迎密集利好
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-13 13:50
上市公司进入2024年年报及2025年一季报的披露高峰期。 今夜又有多家上市公司大手笔分红。其中: 古井贡酒(000596)4月27日晚间发布2024年年度报告,公司实现营业收入235.78亿元,同比增长16.41%; 净利润55.17亿元,同比增长20.22%。公司拟以2024年末股份总数5.286亿股为基数,每10股派发人民币 50.00元(含税),共计人民币26.43亿元,不送红股,不以公积金转增股本。同日公司发布2025年一季 报,营业收入91.46亿元,同比增长10.38%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润为23.30亿元,同比增长 12.78%。 泸州老窖(000568)4月27日晚间披露年报,公司2024年实现营业收入311.96亿元,同比增长3.19%;净利 润134.73亿元,同比增长1.71%;基本每股收益9.18元。公司拟每10股派发现金红利45.92元(含税), 共计拟派发现金红利67.59亿元(含税)。同日公司披露2025年一季报,一季度实现净利润45.93亿元, 同比增长0.41%。 美格智能(002881)发布2025年一季报,公司一季度实现营业收入9.97亿元,同比增长73.57%; ...
食品饮料行业周报:茅台完成半年经营任务,食品中期业绩分化-20250712
行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 12 日 茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250707-20250711 《白酒批价暂稳 关注个股中报——食品饮 料行业周报 20250630-20250704》 2025/07/05 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示: 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 绩分化 相关研究 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 ⚫ 投资分析意见: ...
情况有点不对啊!外资持续抛售白酒行业了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-12 03:28
Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends in Baijiu Sector - Foreign investment in the baijiu sector has been decreasing, with Kweichow Moutai's foreign ownership dropping from 26% to nearly 13% over the past five years, representing a reduction of about 50% [1] - Other major baijiu companies have also seen significant reductions in foreign holdings, with Luzhou Laojiao decreasing from 8.1% to 4.5% (44% reduction), Yanghe from 27.4% to 3.5% (87% reduction), and Gujing Gong from 10.3% to 3.8% (63% reduction) [2] - Wuliangye has experienced a similar trend, with foreign ownership decreasing from 26% to approximately 7%, equating to a 73% reduction over the last five years [3] Group 2: Recent Performance and Forecasts - Recent quarterly data indicates that Kweichow Moutai had two quarters of net buying and two quarters of net selling, with total shares held decreasing from 87 million to 73 million, a 16% reduction over the past year [1] - Forecasts for the first half of 2025 suggest Kweichow Moutai will see a revenue growth of 9%, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 1-2%, and Luzhou Laojiao is projected to decline by 6-10% [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu is an exception, with foreign holdings increasing from 36 million to 49 million shares over the past year, indicating a 36% increase in foreign investment [12] Group 3: Overall Industry Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the baijiu industry appears cautious, with many companies experiencing declines in foreign investment, suggesting that the industry's fundamentals may not have fully bottomed out [9] - The baijiu index has been one of the worst-performing indices this year, raising concerns about whether the actual earnings will meet broker expectations [10]
吃喝板块异动!白酒大面积飘红,食品ETF(515710)上探1.33%!机构:食饮消费结构升级仍具潜力
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-11 12:00
Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday increase of 1.33% before closing up 0.5% [1] - Major liquor stocks saw significant gains, with Lotus Holdings rising by 3.83%, and both Jinzhidao and Luzhou Laojiao increasing by over 2% [3] - Moutai Sauce Wine Company reported achieving its operational goals for the first half of 2025, which may boost investor confidence in the liquor sector [3] Group 2 - The food and beverage industry has undergone profound changes in both supply and demand since 2025, with a mix of upgrades and downgrades in consumer preferences [4] - Analysts suggest that the current industry transformation indicates a cyclical change, recommending companies with balanced product structures and healthy inventories [4] - Investment strategies should focus on stable demand leaders and companies innovating in new products and channels [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the China Securities Index for the food and beverage sector, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and sub-high-end liquor stocks [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]
国际化和回流同步加速,白酒出海任重道远
第一财经· 2025-07-11 09:22
本文字数:2648,阅读时长大约5分钟 2025.07. 11 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 国内市场动销的持续放缓和竞争的加剧,促使国际化也成为国内酒企关注的重点。2024年以来,国内主 流白酒企业都在推动新一轮海外市场拓展。新一轮出海虽然加速了白酒的国际化进程,但随之而来的,白 酒回流的趋势也在同步加速。在业内看来,白酒出海虽然是必由之路,但仍是任重而道远。 白酒出海与回流同步提速 2024年开始的新一轮白酒出海热仍在持续。 从2024年起,国内白酒企业就在加大国际市场的投入力度,茅台、五粮液、洋河、泸州老窖等头部酒企 除了频频在APEC等国际会议上亮相外,也多次赴东南亚、中东、南美等国家和地区开展品牌和市场营销 活动。 2025年上半年,这一趋势仍在持续,根据中酒协发布的半年酒业报告,2025年有63.9%的白酒企业均已 布局或正在拓展海外市场。调研数据反馈情况,白酒出海的目的地以亚太地区为主,韩国、日本、澳大利 亚、新加坡、马来西亚等国家(地区)也是比较热门的出海目的地,占比在3%到9%不等。此外,美国占 比17%左右。 中国食品土畜进出口商会酒类进出口商分会发布的最新数据显示,2025年1月到5月,中国 ...
从具身智能到行业应用,腾讯云携业界专家共话AI新趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 08:34
积梦智能 CEO、腾讯云 TVP 谢孟军 6月20日,由上海人工智能实验室、腾讯云TVP 、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院联合主办的「智汇制造 创赢未来」腾 讯云TVP AI研讨会暨泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院智库研讨会在上海成功举办。在本次活动中,专家们现场参观全国 首个大模型创新生态社区"模速空间",直观体验 AI 前沿技术与创新应用的碰撞。来自智能制造、数字化、AI 等 领域大咖,围绕AI技术、应用落地、行业实践心得等展开深入研讨。活动特设头脑风暴环节,各位专家畅所欲 言,进行精彩的观点碰撞,共同探讨AI的现在和未来。 主持人开场 主持人积梦智能 CEO、腾讯云 TVP 谢孟军在活动伊始时表示,我们处在一个变革之年,通用大模型加速落地, AI正从任务型算法迈向认知智能。与此同时,具身智能的崛起打破虚拟与物理世界的界限,推动行业进入生产力 革新阶段。今天,期待与各位专家老师共探大模型、具身智能的多元落地路径,为产业智能化升级提速助力。 主办方致辞 泸州老窖股份有限公司党委副书记、总经理、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院执行院长 林锋 泸州老窖股份有限公司党委副书记、总经理、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院执行院长 ...
食品饮料周报:酒企高管密集调整 行业生态正在重构?
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-11 08:13
Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.93% during the week of July 7-11, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their strong brand and channel capabilities in the high-end liquor segment, despite current demand pressures [2] - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer highlighted for their growth potential [3] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated a safety initiative for the meat industry, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality [4] Consumer Price Index - In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1% [5] Industry Trends - The demand for mass-market food products is expected to stabilize and grow in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends in healthy snacks and beverages [6] - The "Civilian Liquor Era" is emerging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye developing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [7][8] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai held a channel partner meeting to discuss market expansion and service improvement [11] - Wuliangye Group established a new energy management company, indicating diversification into battery sales and energy management [12] Financial Forecasts - Major liquor companies are experiencing pressure on profit margins, with over half reporting declines in profits and revenues in the first half of 2025 [10] - The industry is undergoing significant executive turnover, reflecting strategic shifts in response to market challenges [10] Industry Data - The price of premium liquor is currently at 438.00 yuan per bottle, reflecting market dynamics [19] - The retail prices of major dairy products and the costs of seasoning raw materials are being monitored for trends [27][29]
国家统计局:6月酒类价格同比下降1.7%,酒价何时止跌?
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-11 06:35
Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].
出海新变量|国际化和回流同步加速,白酒出海任重道远
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 06:25
不过记者注意到,伴随着白酒出口的持续增加,大量白酒正在回流国内。今年前5个月,中国烈酒进口 来源地的第一名却是中国(按原产地规则统计),进口额1.6亿美元,同比增长56.6%,进口量为89.3万 升,同比增长64.4%,占总进口额的28.8%。而排名第二的英国进口额为1.4亿美元,同比下降了4%。 白酒国际化难以一蹴而就,需要更多耐心。 国内市场动销的持续放缓和竞争的加剧,促使国际化也成为国内酒企关注的重点。2024年以来,国内主 流白酒企业都在推动新一轮海外市场拓展。新一轮出海虽然加速了白酒的国际化进程,但随之而来的, 白酒回流的趋势也在同步加速。在业内看来,白酒出海虽然是必由之路,但仍是任重而道远。 白酒出海与回流同步提速 2024年开始的新一轮白酒出海热仍在持续。 从2024年起,国内白酒企业就在加大国际市场的投入力度,茅台、五粮液、洋河、泸州老窖等头部酒企 除了频频在APEC等国际会议上亮相外,也多次赴东南亚、中东、南美等国家和地区开展品牌和市场营 销活动。 2025年上半年,这一趋势仍在持续,根据中酒协发布的半年酒业报告,2025年有63.9%的白酒企业均已 布局或正在拓展海外市场。调研数据反馈情况 ...