2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 Q3 继续释压，优先良性发展 ——泸州老窖（000568.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：泸州老窖发布 2024 年三季报，公司 24 年前三季度实现总营收 243.04 亿 元，同比增加 10.76%，归母净利润 115.93 亿元，同比增加 9.72%，扣非归母 净利润 115.64 亿元，同比增加 10.24%。Q3 单季总营收 73.99 亿元，同比增加 0.67%，归母净利润 35.66 亿元，同比增加 2.58%，Q3 收入及业绩表现略低于 我们此前预期。 24Q3 收入端同比基本持平，国窖品牌韧性较好。三季度需求环境较为疲软，白 酒行业整体景气度相对较弱，公司出于良性发展的考虑，主动调整节奏，Q3 收 入端同比基本持平、相较二季度有所放缓。同时公司延续以往的销售策略，持续 进行渠道深耕、消费者培育等。从产品角度，公司重点发力国窖系列，估计国窖 1573 系列三季度表现较为稳健、收入同比或仍有小幅增长，需求承压下国窖凭 借品牌优势、依旧展现出较强韧性。泸州老窖系列三季度收入同比或有一定承压， 一方面外部环境波动对消费需求存在影响，叠加此前中档酒 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——泸州老窖（000568.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 李美仪 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38038667 | | | | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | | | S0880524080002 | | | 本报告导读： Q3 业绩符合预期，产品结构影响毛利率，税费影响趋弱，净利率同比提升。从回款 及渠道反馈来看公司三季度放慢节奏，有望释放渠道压力，构筑良性增长。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。公司 Q3 业绩符合预期，净利率逆势提 升。考虑白酒消费需求偏弱且 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 泸州老窖（000568）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 报表纾压是迎接新途的开始 目标价：206 元 当前价：136.81 元 事项： 公司公布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 243.0 亿元，同增 10.8%，归母净 利润 115.9 亿元，同增 9.7%。单 Q3 实现营收 74.0 亿元，同增 0.7%，归母净 利润 35.7 亿元，同增 2.6%，回款 81.1 亿元，同降 19.4%，经营现金流量净额 42.4 亿元，同增 24.5%，合同负债 26.5 亿元，环比 Q2 末增加 3.1 亿元。 评论： Q3 主动降速纾压，国窖批价相对坚挺。公司 Q3 营收/利润分别同增 0.7%/2.6%， 外部需求及库存压力加大下降速已有预期。结合渠道反馈，中秋国庆外部需求 趋弱，叠加竞品影响，产品动销端承压明显，公司策略上亦主动降速调整，适 当降低回款发货节奏。具体来看，国窖系表现好于大盘，前三季度整体看高低 度国窖回款出货端均保持双位数增长，特曲系列继 Q1 快速增长后，Q2-Q3 增 速放缓，特曲 60 表现相对较好，窖龄持续调整。单三季度看，在外部需求进 一步冲击下 ...

泸州老窖（000585.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 Q3 降速舒压，坚持长期主义 2024 年 10 月 31 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 10 月 30 日发布 2024 年三季报，24 年 Q1-3 公司累计实现 营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 243.04/115.93/115.64 亿元，同比 +10.76%/+9.72%/+10.24%。其中单 24Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母 净利润 73.99/35.66/35.70 亿元，同比+0.67%/+2.58%/+3.52%。截至 24Q3 期末合同负债 26.54 亿元，较 23 年末减少 0.19 亿元，单 Q3 期内环比减少 0.62 亿元。用"单季度营收+Δ 合同负债"核算真实营收，以抵消公司因订单确认、发货 节奏等因素带来的营收扰动，24Q3 真实营收 242.85 亿元，同比+8.72%，快于 同期营收增速，反映出经销商打款意愿强，对品牌认可度高。 ➢ 坚持"双品牌、三品系、大单品"的品牌策略，数字化转型推动生产、营销、 管理多环节效率提升。产品方面：高度国窖西南核心区域保持高占有；低度国窖 顺应年轻群体低度化饮酒趋势，在华北、环 ...

公 司 研 究 2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司点评 买入/维持 泸州老窖(000568) 目标价: 162.9 昨收盘:136.81 泸州老窖：Q3 市场需求疲软环比降速，国窖稳健增长 ◼ 走势比较 (60%) (44%) (28%) (12%) 4% 20% 23/10/3024/1/1124/3/2424/6/524/8/1724/10/29 泸州老窖 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 14.72/14.67 总市值/流通(亿元) 2,013.8/2,007.4 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 229.3/98.92 相关研究报告 <<泸州老窖：Q2 调整节奏稳增长，税 负拖累盈利表现>>--2024-09-04 <<泸州老窖：全年顺利收官，一季度 业绩符合预期>>--2024-04-30 <<泸州老窖：业绩超预期，合同负债 和现金流表现靓眼>>--2023-11-14 事件：泸州老窖发布 2024 年三季报，2024Q1-Q3 实现总收入 243 亿元，同比+10.8%，归母净利润 115.9 亿元，同比+9.7%，扣非归母净 利润 115.6 亿元，同比+10.2%。2024Q ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/饮料 证券研究报告 泸州老窖（000568）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------|---------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 30 日收盘价（元） ] | 136.81 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 98.92-224.80 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1472/1467 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 201380/200740 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《收入稳健增长，税金扰动盈利》 | 2024.08.31 | | 《现金流表现优异， 24Q1 | 实现开门红》 | | 2024.04.29 | | | 《 增 长 势 能 强 劲 ， 现 金 流 表 现 亮 眼 》 | | | 2023.11.26 市场表 ...

2024年10月30日 来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 泸州老窖 (000568.SZ) (维持评级) 买人 公司点评 证券研究报告 Q3 业绩符合预期，经营扎实韧性强 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 30 日,公司被露 24 年三季报,期内实现营收 243.0 亿元,同比+10.8%;归母净利 115.9 亿元,同比+9.7%。其 中,24Q3 实现营收 74.0 亿元,同比+0.7%;归母净利 35.7 亿 元，同比+2.6%。 经营分析 公司在良性基础上经营,Q3正增长符合市场预期,西南与华北市 场根基扎实,相对完备的产品架构也赋予公司一定发展韧性。公 司在发展过程中磨合渠道数字化营销改革,在渠道及消费者端持 续推进扫码导向的互动营销,配合客主节等系列活动增强品牌曝 光度与认知度。 产品结构层面,表观 Q3 毛利率同比微降 0.5pct 至 88.1%,或与 五码产品扫码率提升、红包返利支出提升相关,单 Q3 结构预计 平稳:考虑销售费用率同比-1.1pct、毛销差仍同比提升,预计 也与数字化改革下费用精细化相关。此外,管理费用率同比- 0.6pct，所得税负回归常态水平约 25%，整体经营提效带动归 ...

证 2024 年 10 月 31 日 报 告 基本数据 2024-10-30 当前股价（元） 136.81 总市值（亿元） 2014 总股本（百万股） 1472 流通股本（百万股） 1467 52 周价格范围（元） 100.02-221.93 日均成交额（百万元） 1597.91 公 研 究 业绩表现稳健，费投同比优化 买入(维持) 事件 —泸州老窖（000568.SZ）公司事件点评报告 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 (%) 泸州老窖 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《泸州老窖（000568）：利润略 不及预期，税负占比形成拖累》 2024-09-01 2、《泸州老窖（000568）：坚持良 性发展基调，全力以赴完成全年目 标》2024-06-30 3、《泸州老窖（000568）：Q1 业绩 超预期，品牌势能延续》2024-04- 28 司 2024 年 10 月 30 日，泸州老窖发布 2024 年三季报。 投资要点 ▌利润小幅增长，整体表现稳定 利润符合预期，整体业绩稳健。20 ...

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月31日 食品饮料 泸州老窖(000568.SZ) 调整释放压力，轻装稳步前进 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:136.81元 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.lzlj.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | 泸州老窖集团有限责任公司 /25.89% | | 实际控制人 | 泸州市国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 1,472 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 1,467 | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 2,014 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 2,007 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 30.86 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 31.5 | | 行情走势图 | | = 沪深300指数 相关研究报告 【平安证券】泸州老窖（000568.SZ）*半年报点评* 主动调整 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was RMB 7.40 billion, a year-over-year increase of 0.67%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was RMB 3.57 billion, up 2.58% year-over-year[2] - Total revenue for the first three quarters reached RMB 24.30 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.76%[2] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders reached RMB 11.59 billion, a 9.7% increase compared to the same period last year[16] - Operating revenue for the period reached 24,303,555,187.30 RMB, up from 21,942,722,318.53 RMB in the previous period[15] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased to 37,460,032,630.97 RMB from 33,815,566,574.75 RMB, reflecting improved profitability[14] - Comprehensive income attributable to parent company shareholders reached RMB 11.58 billion, an 11.9% year-over-year increase[17] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) rose to RMB 7.89, up 9.7% from RMB 7.19 in the previous year[17] - Total revenue from sales of goods and services reached RMB 28.27 billion, a 2.3% increase year-over-year[18] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was RMB 12.46 billion, a significant increase of 37.69% year-over-year[2] - Operating cash flow increased by 37.7% year-over-year to RMB 12.46 billion[18] - The company's cash and cash equivalents balance grew to RMB 30.15 billion, representing a 12.8% increase from the beginning of the year[19] - Investment activities resulted in a net cash outflow of RMB 939.2 million, primarily due to increased capital expenditures[19] - The company allocated RMB 611.68 million for the construction of fixed assets, intangible assets, and other long-term assets[19] - Dividend payments and interest expenses totaled RMB 8.23 billion, a 27.6% increase compared to the same period last year[19] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of the end of the third quarter were RMB 66.50 billion, a 5.06% increase compared to the end of the previous year[2] - Total assets increased to 66,496,926,541.35 RMB from 63,294,455,201.60 RMB, reflecting growth in both current and non-current assets[13][14] - Current assets rose to 49,191,347,868.79 RMB from 45,358,404,336.27 RMB, driven by increases in monetary funds and trading financial assets[12] - Non-current assets decreased slightly to 17,305,578,672.56 RMB from 17,936,050,865.33 RMB, with a notable reduction in construction in progress[12][13] - Total liabilities decreased to 20,922,458,062.95 RMB from 21,762,747,471.75 RMB, primarily due to a reduction in long-term borrowings[13][14] - Contract liabilities decreased slightly to 2,654,171,466.27 RMB from 2,672,977,090.30 RMB, suggesting stable customer commitments[13] Shareholder and Equity Information - The number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 168,211[7] - The top 10 shareholders of Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. include Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited holding 3.28% (48,267,771 shares), China Merchants CSI Liquor Index Fund holding 3.07% (45,222,560 shares), and China Securities Finance Corporation holding 2.30% (33,842,059 shares)[8] - Luzhou Laojiao Group Co., Ltd. and Luzhou Xinglu Investment Group Co., Ltd. are state-owned companies under the Luzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holding 381,088,389 shares and 365,971,142 shares respectively[9] - Luzhou Laojiao Group Co., Ltd. increased its shareholding by 1,140,200 shares (0.08%) through its wholly-owned subsidiary Sichuan Jinduo Investment Co., Ltd., bringing its total shareholding to 382,228,589 shares (25.97%)[9] - The company completed the repurchase and cancellation of 21,266 restricted shares on August 14, 2024[10] - The company's 2021 restricted stock incentive plan saw the first batch of restricted shares released from lock-up on February 22, 2024, and the second batch on October 9, 2024[10][11] - The company's equity increased to 45,574,468,478.40 RMB from 41,531,707,729.85 RMB, driven by higher retained earnings[14] Investments and Capital Expenditures - Luzhou Laojiao is investing approximately 4.78 billion yuan in the first phase of its intelligent brewing technology transformation project, which is currently under construction[11] - Investment property increased by RMB 13.18 million, a 34.89% increase compared to the beginning of the year, due to new rental properties[5] - Construction in progress decreased by RMB 1.08 billion, a 62.94% reduction, as projects reached completion and were transferred to fixed assets[5] - Deferred tax assets decreased by RMB 395.98 million, a 58.71% reduction, mainly due to reduced unrealized profits from internal transactions[5] Expenses and Costs - Operating costs increased to 8,716,343,501.20 RMB from 7,947,227,779.03 RMB, with a significant rise in sales and administrative expenses[15] - Research and development expenses grew to 142,651,488.12 RMB from 128,135,082.85 RMB, indicating increased investment in innovation[15] - Income tax expenses increased by 14.3% to RMB 4.07 billion, reflecting higher profitability[16] Accounts Receivable and Other Financial Metrics - Accounts receivable decreased by RMB 10.52 million, a 60.26% reduction compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to overseas liquor sales repayments[5]