21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 2025年白酒三季报，是过去十年最惨的一个季度。 A股21家白酒上市公司中，仅有贵州茅台、山西汾酒等少数白酒保持了业绩正增长，大部分酒企第三季度业绩骤降，下跌30%、40%的不在少数， 口子窖今年第三季度的净利润甚至暴跌90%。 上一轮周期低谷的2013年、2014年，白酒股业绩普遍倒退，市盈率集体跌至个位数，茅台不到9倍，五粮液、泸州老窖都在6倍上下。面对外界大 面积唱跌，但斌、林园、董宝珍等投资人轮番赶去茅台蹲守仓库，从发货节奏判断实际动销。 如今又一轮周期到来，踩着几乎相同的韵脚：持续几年的扩产提价遭遇了需求拐点，先是价格普遍倒挂、渠道库存水涨船高，随后销售集体放 缓、倒退，今年政策端也再次收紧，困境逐渐扩散到全行业。 面对周期性困境，各家白酒企业这轮表现到底如何？ 下文中，21世纪经济报道记者将从增长表现、盈利能力、账上利润、渠道打款、经营现金流、销售投入等多个角度对比白酒股在两轮周期的表 现，希望能帮助投资者更好理解：白酒抵御周期的能力到底如何？哪些白酒真正经受住了周期考验？ 抗跌能力变强了 首先需要说明，当前21家A股白酒上市公司中，完整经历上一轮调整期的，只有15家，分 ...

◼ 风险提示：出清不充分和消费复苏不及预期的风险，行业竞争加剧风险。 证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 白酒 2025 年三季报总结：加速纾压，底部渐明 2025 年 11 月 06 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 结构及规模均承压，净利率持续回落。毛利率方面，25Q1~3 白酒板块 毛利率为 82.3%，同比-0.1pct；25Q3 板块毛利率为 81.7%，同比-0.7pct； 结构、货折的拖累延续，规模负效应影响亦边际加剧。费率方面，25Q3 多数酒企销售费率同比增长，其中茅台、汾酒、酒鬼、老白干、金徽酒、 金种子酒销售费率同比改善，与费用管控加强有关；25Q3 伴随收入兑 现趋弱，多数酒企管理费率同比小幅增长。利润增速方面，25Q1-3 高端 （-0.5%）＞次高端（-7.6%）＞地产酒（-34.7%），毛利率持续承压同时， 龙头酒企费用收缩力度边际加大，帮助稳定经营效益。 ◼ 投资建议：我们认为，当前酒企均已步入纾压出清阶段，后续的核心期 待来自业绩修复预期的判断，自下而上优先关注更早看到拐点，且增长 弹性领先的酒企。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has announced an investment of approximately 1.478 billion yuan in the construction of a historical and cultural industry park and a Chinese liquor museum, aiming to enhance brand influence and showcase the history and culture of Chinese liquor [2] Industry Transformation - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a transformation from a "capacity expansion" model to a focus on "quality improvement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation" [3] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in liquor production, with a cumulative output of 2.655 million kiloliters from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [3] - The shift in consumer logic is characterized by four trends: 1. Changing consumption concepts from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit" [3] 2. Demand for personalized, lower-alcohol, and self-indulgent liquor among younger consumers [4] 3. A restructuring of consumption scenarios, with a decline in government consumption and growth in self-drinking and new consumption scenarios [4] 4. Accelerated evolution of consumption channels, with a deep integration of online and offline sales [4] Marketing Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on "deepening the market, innovating products, solidifying the core base, and transforming channels" in its marketing strategy [5] - The company aims to implement a long-term strategy for market cultivation, particularly in lower-tier markets, to convert opportunities into sustainable growth [5] - In product innovation, Luzhou Laojiao will continue to develop lower-alcohol and diversified products, including promoting new drinking methods [6] - The company is shifting resources towards mid-to-high-end mainstream products to solidify its market position [6] - Luzhou Laojiao is also entering the high-growth light bottle liquor segment, with pilot promotions of its new Luzhou Laojiao Erqu product [6] - The company emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive pricing strategy to maintain balance between volume and price, while ensuring healthy channel ecology [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on November 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.60% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) rose by 0.28%, with a premium trading rate of 0.06% [1] - As of November 5, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF had a latest circulating scale of 5.622 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF experienced net inflows for 9 out of the last 10 days, accumulating nearly 120 million yuan [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as segments like beverages, dairy, and condiments [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (subscription code: 512623, listing code: 512620) officially launched on November 3, with fundraising set to end on November 7, 2025 [1] - This ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which selects 50 stocks covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, including leading companies like Muyuan and Haida [1] Group 4: Industry Insights - Guizhou Province's Commerce Department is soliciting opinions on transforming "selling liquor" into "selling lifestyle," encouraging innovation in product offerings and service methods in retail and dining sectors [2] - As of October 30, over 90% of the autumn grain harvest has been completed nationwide, with the Northeast region nearing completion and expected to achieve a good harvest [2] Group 5: White Liquor Market Analysis - Guosen Securities reports that the white liquor market is facing pressure on both volume and price due to tightening regulations on public consumption and business banquets [3] - The report indicates that the worst period for white liquor sales pressure has passed, with expectations for demand recovery in the future [3] - Guosen Securities suggests focusing on stable industry leaders and high-quality stocks with long-term growth potential due to ongoing structural upgrades and channel strategy optimization [3]

截至2025年11月6日 09:36，食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)上涨0.14%，跟踪指数成分股粤桂股份(000833)上涨5.40%，安琪酵母(600298)上涨2.25%，养元饮品 (603156)上涨2.10%，酒鬼酒(000799)上涨1.78%，中粮糖业(600737)上涨1.60%。 截至11月5日，食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)最新份额达79.60亿份，创近1年新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1711.15万元净流入，合计"吸金"3975.66万元。 【产品亮点】 食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)跟踪中证食品饮料指数，仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙头股，兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头，前十权重股包括"茅五 泸汾洋"、伊利、海天等。 【相关产品】 【机构观点】 中金公司认为，年初至今食饮行业进入新常态，整体消费环境仍显疲弱，行业追求高质价比，功能性，健康性及情绪消费的趋势延续。多数龙头企业聚焦稳 健经营和高质量发展，提升股东回报，经营质量均有所改善。年初至今白酒行业需求延续弱景气，叠加新条例出台，白酒供需两端经历 ...

【股权收购】 | | | 11月5日重要公告精选 | | --- | --- | --- | | 类型 | 公司 | 主要内容 | | 热点 | 安泰集团 | 股价偏离公司基本面,存在市场情绪过热、非理性炒作风险 | | 项目投资 | 华尔泰 | 拟投资建设二氧化碳综合利用年产12万吨氨基树脂项目 | | 合同中标 | 重庆建工 | 市政一公司签署《开州至梁平高速公路施工合同(合同段:KWLTJB)》 | | 股权收购 | 组威股份 | 拟1.39亿元收购东吴机械40%的股权 | | 回购 | 贵州茅台 | 拟斥资15亿元-30亿元回购股份 | | 数据 | 金地集团 | 1-10月累计实现签约金额261.0亿元,同比下降55.33% | | | 宁波港 | 10月份预计完成货物吞吐量9960万吨,同比增长5.3% | | | 金杯电工 | 总裁周祖勤拟减持不超过1. 4988%股份 | | 增减持 | 凯美特气 | 财信资产及一致行动人拟减持不超过3%股份 | | | 华兰股份 | 控股股东华兰机电拟增持3000万元-6000万元公司股票 | | 其他 | 豪能股份 | 拟发行可转债募资不超18亿元 用于智 ...

Group 1 - Company MengTian Home is planning to acquire control of ChuanTu Microelectronics through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [1] - The actual controller of MengTian Home, Yu Jingyuan, is also planning a transfer of control, which is independent of the aforementioned acquisition [1] - The stock of MengTian Home has been suspended since November 6, 2025, with an expected suspension period of no more than 10 trading days [1] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai plans to repurchase shares with an investment of between 1.5 billion and 3 billion RMB, with a maximum repurchase price of 1,887.63 RMB per share [2] - The repurchase will be conducted through centralized bidding and will be used for cancellation to reduce the company's registered capital [2] - The company also plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 RMB per share, totaling approximately 30 billion RMB based on the total share capital as of September 30, 2025 [2] Group 3 - JiaYuan Technology has signed a cooperation framework agreement with CATL to deepen their long-term procurement cooperation in the supply, research, and production of materials for new battery anodes [3] - The agreement aims to enhance collaboration in technology research and market expansion, benefiting both companies [3] - JiaYuan Technology will be the preferred supplier for new products developed in cooperation with CATL, which will strengthen its competitive position in the industry [3] Group 4 - KaBeiYi has invested 100 million RMB to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai KaBeiYi Robotics, to accelerate the development of humanoid robot components [4] - The new subsidiary will operate independently and is expected to enhance the company's investment in humanoid robotics [4] Group 5 - Bertley has established a joint venture, Wuhu Bertley Drive Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 100 million RMB, where Bertley holds a 60% stake [5] - The joint venture will focus on the research, production, and sales of various electric motors, aligning with the company's strategy for technological autonomy and product diversification [5] - This strategic move is aimed at strengthening the company's position in high-growth sectors such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robotics [5] Group 6 - Tongling Nonferrous Metals has successfully acquired exploration rights for the JiGuangShan-HuVillage copper-gold-molybdenum mine for 3.204 billion RMB [6] - Ningbo Port expects to achieve a container throughput of 4.56 million TEUs in October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6] - Hongquan Technology will change its stock name to Hongquan Technology starting November 11, 2025, while maintaining its full name and stock code [6] Group 7 - Dongfeng Group has undergone a change in its controlling shareholder and actual controller, leading to a name change to Quzhou Dongfeng New Materials Group Co., Ltd. [7] - Yihong Long has been recognized as a national manufacturing single champion enterprise for its self-immune disease diagnostic products [7] Group 8 - China Shipbuilding Technology's subsidiary plans to publicly transfer 100% equity of a clean energy development company as part of its strategy to enhance operational quality and fund future projects [8] - HeimuDan's subsidiary is selling its developed digital economy industrial park properties for approximately 41.97 million RMB [8] Group 9 - Shenkai Co. has completed the transfer of shares from its original controlling shareholder to Shenzhen Huili Hongsheng Industrial Holdings, changing its controlling shareholder [9] - Luzhou Laojiao is investing approximately 1.478 billion RMB to build a historical and cultural industry park to enhance brand influence [9] Group 10 - Xiling Power has signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 100% of Weipai Automotive Electronics, which specializes in turbocharger production [10] - Mind Electronics plans to divest its 51% stake in a subsidiary for 14.8 million RMB to focus on core business development [10] Group 11 - Triangle Defense has signed development and framework order agreements with Siemens Energy to supply specific items, enhancing its international market presence [11] Group 12 - Hualan Co.'s controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 30 million and 60 million RMB [12] - Key executives of Kaili Medical have also increased their stakes in the company through market transactions [12]

白酒业绩惨烈调整背后，是一场去库存大战和资金压力考验。 作者 | 资市分子 2025年，中国白酒行业迎来了一个转折点。 最新财报数据显示，今年前三季度，20家A股白酒上市公司营收总额3202.31亿元，同比下降5.83%；净 利润总额1227.71亿元，同比下降6.76%。 其中仅贵州茅台（600519.SH）、山西汾酒（600809.SH）两家业绩保持增长，其余18家均出现下滑。 相较前三季度，今年第三季度尤为惨烈。 其中，水井坊（600779.SH）、古井贡酒（000596.SZ）第三季度营收同比分别暴跌58.91%、51.65%， 老白干酒（600559.SH）、口子窖（603589.SH）等出现大幅下滑。 头部酒企泸州老窖（000568.SZ）第三季度净利润也下滑逾10个点，五粮液（000858.SZ）更是暴跌 65%，洋河股份（002304.SZ）则直接亏损。 直营渠道严重拖了茅台后腿。今年第三季度，茅台直营渠道收入155亿元，同比下滑15%，相比于前两 个季度的双位数增长出现了明显回落。 这是五年来首次出现如此大规模的酒企业绩下滑，白酒行业正式进入深度调整期。 回顾近五年数据，白酒企业营收滑坡逐渐 ...

Group 1 - Mengtian Home intends to acquire control of ChuanTu Microelectronics through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, leading to a significant asset restructuring. The stock will be suspended from trading starting November 6, 2025, for up to 10 trading days [2] - Guizhou Moutai plans to repurchase shares worth between 1.5 billion and 3 billion RMB, with a maximum repurchase price of 1,887.63 RMB per share. The repurchase will be completed within six months following shareholder approval [3] - Jiayuan Technology has signed a cooperation framework agreement with CATL to deepen their long-term procurement relationship, focusing on the supply and development of materials for new battery anodes [4] Group 2 - Kabeiyi has invested 100 million RMB to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai Kabeiyi Robotics, to accelerate the development of humanoid robot components [5] - Bertley has formed a joint venture with Langfang Jinrun Electric to establish Wuhu Bertley Drive Technology Co., with a registered capital of 100 million RMB, focusing on electric motor systems [7] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals has successfully acquired exploration rights for the Jiguanshan-Hucun copper-gold-molybdenum mine for 3.204 billion RMB [8] Group 3 - Ningbo Port expects to achieve a container throughput of 4.56 million TEUs in October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [8] - Huayuan Technology has changed its stock name from "Hongquan Technology" to "Hongquan Technology" effective November 11, 2025, while maintaining its full name and stock code [8] - The company plans to invest approximately 1.478 billion RMB in the construction of a historical and cultural industry park to enhance brand influence [12]