Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging market environment with a focus on transformation and innovation to maintain competitive advantage [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.66 billion yuan, down 4.5% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 7.10 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year decline, with net profit at 3.07 billion yuan, down 11.1% [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 87.9%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-end products [1][2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The demand for mid-to-high-end liquor was weak in H1 2025, with the company focusing on transforming its product offerings and channel strategies to adapt to market changes [1]. - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 15.05 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.1%, while other liquor categories saw a more significant decline of 17.0% in revenue [1]. - The company is actively pursuing market expansion through initiatives like the "Hundred Cities Plan" and enhancing channel management [2]. Cost and Efficiency - The overall expense ratio decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 12.7% in Q2 2025, with reductions in sales, management, and financial expense ratios [2]. - Cash flow for Q2 2025 was 8.08 billion yuan, down 15.1% year-on-year, while contract liabilities increased by 50.7% to 3.53 billion yuan, indicating a robust channel liquidity [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 12.97 billion yuan, 14.27 billion yuan, and 15.71 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 8.81 yuan, 9.69 yuan, and 10.67 yuan, suggesting a positive long-term growth trajectory [3].

自2024年底起，白酒行业的发展模式开始发生变化，财报数字的增长已不再是头部企业追逐的核心，增 长质量成为关键。 从产品结构看，尽管泸州老窖上半年销售收入有所下滑，但高端化趋势未改。中高档酒营收达150.48亿 元，在总营收中占比仍超九成，基础依然稳固。 一方面，这源于泸州老窖管理层对市场的深度洞察。坚守高端化本质上是基于长远品牌价值的战略选 择。高端化是白酒行业应对周期波动的天然护城河，高端产品对应稳定的高净值客群，受经济波动影响 相对较小。 在经济环境调整与消费需求迭代的双重背景下，白酒行业正经历一场静水深流的变革。8月29日晚间， 泸州老窖发布了2025年上半年的业绩报告：实现营收164.54亿元，归母净利润76.63亿元。尽管行业整体 步入调整期，泸州老窖却凭借超前布局与主动求变，展现出较强的抗压能力与成长韧性。其发展路径已 转向一场围绕高端化、低度化、年轻化与场景化的系统性创新。 高端化筑牢"价值堡垒" 同时，高端产品利润丰厚，可为企业提供充足的现金流以抵御市场风险。当前行业深度调整期暂时压缩 了中间消费群体的购买能力，但顶层需求依然稳定。唯有坚守高端，才能在行业洗牌中强化竞争优势， 实现可持续发展 ...

自 2024 年底起，白酒行业的发展模式开始发生变化，财报数字的增长已不再是头部企业追逐的核 心，增长质量成为关键。 在经济环境调整与消费需求迭代的双重背景下，白酒行业正经历一场静水深流的变革。 8 月 29 日 晚间，泸州老窖发布了 2025 年上半年的业绩报告：实现营收 164.54 亿元，归母净利润 76.63 亿 元。尽管行业整体步入调整期，泸州老窖却凭借超前布局与主动求变，展现出较强的抗压能力与成长 韧性。其发展路径已转向一场围绕高端化、低度化、年轻化与场景化的系统性创新。 高端化筑牢"价值堡垒" 从产品结构看，尽管泸州老窖上半年销售收入有所下滑，但高端化趋势未改。中高档酒营收达 150.48 亿元，在总营收中占比仍超九成，基础依然稳固。 一方面，这源于泸州老窖管理层对市场的深度洞察。坚守高端化本质上是基于长远品牌价值的战略选 择。高端化是白酒行业应对周期波动的天然护城河，高端产品对应稳定的高净值客群，受经济波动影 响相对较小。 同时，高端产品利润丰厚，可为企业提供充足的现金流以抵御市场风险。当前行业深度调整期暂时压 缩了中间消费群体的购买能力，但顶层需求依然稳定。唯有坚守高端，才能在行业洗牌中强化 ...

行业存量竞争加剧叠加政策调整，上半年，A股白酒板块20家上市公司净利润合计同比下滑约1%，多家上市酒企上半年营收增速远未达年初既定目标，全 年目标恐难实现。 上半年，A股白酒板块营收和净利润整体已是负增长，Q2更是加速下滑，不过上半年板块业绩前六的酒企，营收与净利润均略有增长。白酒行业挤压式竞 争、强者恒强态势愈发明显。 行业竞争加剧下，更多二三线酒企开始"掉队"。今年上半年，20家白酒上市公司中，业绩负增长的有13家，占比65%。其中金种子酒（600199.SH）、酒鬼 酒（000799.SZ）、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）、水井坊（600779.SH）等多家二三线酒企净利润下跌超过50%。 行业挤压式竞争下，更多二三线酒企"掉队"。今年上半年，20家白酒上市公司，业绩负增长的有13家，占比超六成。其中金种子酒、酒鬼酒、顺鑫农业、水 井坊上半年净利润分别下滑超过750%、92%、59%和56%。此外，皇台酒业（000995.SZ）、天佑德酒（002646.SZ）、舍得酒业（600702.SH）、口子窖 （603589.SH）、迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）、伊力特（600197.SH）上半年净利润分别下滑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 12.41 billion, 13.37 billion, and 14.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -7.86%, 7.72%, and 8.93% [4] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, a decline of 7.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33% year-on-year, while the average price per ton of liquor decreased by 4.66% [2] - Emerging channel revenue grew significantly, with traditional and emerging channel revenues at 15.465 billion and 932 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -3.99% and +27.55% [2] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 50.72% year-on-year, reaching 3.529 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 87.09%, down 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 46.57%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The second quarter of 2025 reported a gross profit margin of 87.86% and a net profit margin of 43.23%, with tax and additional charges accounting for 15.39% of total revenue, an increase of 3.72 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 63.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 88.320 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]

公司发布25Q 2业绩： 25Q2：营收71.02 亿（-7.97%），归母净利润30.70 亿（-11.10%），扣非归母净利润30.55 亿 （-11.24%）。 25H1：营收164.54 亿（-2.67%），归母净利润76.63 亿（-4.54%），扣非归母净利润76.50 亿 （-4.30%）。 25Q2 公司毛利率同比-0.95pct 至87.9%，预计主因产品结构拖累，其中25H1 中高档酒毛利率-1.2pct。 25Q2 公司税金及附加/销售/管理费率各同比+3.7/-1.2/-0.3pct，税金及附加率上升预计主因生产销售节奏 错位，公司费率管控得当主因数字化营销改革持续深化。综上，公司25Q2 净利率同比-1.5pct 至 43.2%。 报表质量：渠道合作意愿较强 25Q2 公司销售收现同比-15.1%，公司"营收+Δ合同负债"同比+0.6%，国窖1573 价盘稳健下，渠道合作 意愿较强。销售收现较弱，但应收款项融资25Q2 环比增加2.1 亿元，预计25Q2 经销商更多使用票据打 款。 投资建议：维持"买入" 我们的观点： 25Q2 符合市场预期。 收入：理性增长，报表出清 分品类：25 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported its Q2 2025 performance, with a gross margin decrease of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year to 87.9%, primarily due to product mix issues. The net profit margin also declined by 1.5 percentage points to 43.2% [9][12] - Despite a 15.1% year-on-year decrease in cash sales, the company showed strong channel cooperation willingness, with a slight increase in "revenue + Δ contract liabilities" by 0.6% year-on-year [10] - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the company is expected to enhance channel penetration and adapt to younger and lower-alcohol consumption trends, with new products likely to drive growth [11] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.102 billion (down 7.97%) and a net profit of 3.070 billion (down 11.10%) [12] - For the first half of 2025, revenue was 16.454 billion (down 2.67%) and net profit was 7.663 billion (down 4.54%) [12] - The company anticipates achieving total revenues of 29.474 billion, 30.203 billion, and 33.375 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.472 billion, 12.947 billion, and 14.457 billion [13][15] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 15.44, and 13.83 respectively [13][15] - The gross margin is expected to be 85.2% in 2025, improving to 86.3% by 2027 [15] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 28.4% in 2024 to 20.8% in 2025, stabilizing at 19.3% from 2026 onwards [15]

证券研究报告 必选消费 25H1 白酒综述:逆势调整，报表纾压 华泰研究 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 专题研究 25H1 CS 白酒板块营收/扣非归母净利同比-1%/-1%；25Q2 营收/扣非归母 净利同比-5%/-8%，环比降速。二季度板块受"518 新政"影响，部分政商 务消费场景缺失，压制板块表现；当前基本面环比企稳，预计 8 月以来白酒 动销端表现环比降幅收窄，部分大众宴席场景修复较快，300 元以下大众价 位白酒产品有所修复；当前政商务消费仍然有所承压，预计未来随政策限制 收窄需求也将稳步恢复。中秋旺季将近，期待需求稳步修复带动行业动销改 善。当前头部酒企均以企业长期健康发展为核心，整体经营更加务实，报表 端稳步释放压力。优选高端酒贵州茅台/五粮液/泸州老窖，关注需求恢复节 奏，推荐山西汾酒/古井贡酒/今世缘等。维持板块"增持"评级。 高端酒：经营凸显稳健，经营理性务实 25H1 高端白酒营收/扣非净利同比+6%/+6%，25Q2 营收/扣非净利同比 +3%/+1%。整体业绩凸显稳健，强品牌力龙头需求坚挺，酒企主动调整发 货节奏，在行业调整期中仍实现稳健表现。具体看，贵州茅台 25Q ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the potential for individual wine enterprises to rise above current industry challenges through self-initiated efforts and strategic innovation, suggesting that the time has come for China to produce a global wine leader [2][3]. Industry Overview - The global wine industry is characterized by significant competition and evolving market dynamics, with a focus on strategic growth paths for companies transitioning from local to global players [2][3]. - The top ten global wine companies are dominated by beer giants, with Anheuser-Busch InBev leading at $593.8 billion in revenue, followed by Heineken at $402.1 billion and Diageo at $247.4 billion [7][14]. - In contrast, the Chinese wine industry shows a strong dominance of baijiu companies, with seven out of the top ten companies being baijiu producers, highlighting a stark difference from the global trend [14][17]. Company Performance - The top Chinese wine company, Kweichow Moutai, reported revenues of $212.1 billion, making it the second-largest wine company globally by market capitalization [11][17]. - The combined revenue of the top ten Chinese wine companies is approximately $620 billion, which is about 30% of the total revenue of the top ten global wine companies [17]. - The market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye significantly exceeds that of their global counterparts, indicating a higher valuation in the capital markets [17][18]. Strategic Insights - The article discusses the importance of management consulting, goal decomposition, and process management as critical components for success in the wine industry [2][18]. - The narrative of Anheuser-Busch InBev's rise illustrates the effectiveness of strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies in building a global brand [19][27]. - Diageo's growth is attributed to a series of strategic acquisitions and a focus on high-end products, showcasing the importance of brand management and market responsiveness [39][50]. Market Trends - The article notes a lack of significant presence for wine companies in the global top rankings, suggesting challenges in scaling production and market share within the wine sector [18]. - The Chinese wine market is characterized by a lack of internationalization, with Moutai's overseas revenue accounting for only 4% of its total, indicating potential growth opportunities in global markets [14][17].

Market Overview - The market showed strong performance on September 1, with a total trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.46% [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by over 2%, and the STAR 50 Index rose by over 1%, marking a positive start for September [1] Fund Performance - The Consumption ETF (159928) experienced a slight decline of 0.23%, with a trading volume exceeding 1.1 billion yuan [1] - The fund saw a significant net subscription of 570 million units, indicating a strong demand, with a cumulative "capital absorption" of over 3.2 billion yuan in the last ten days [1] Economic Indicators - China's economic sentiment continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, and composite PMI at 50.5%, showing slight month-on-month increases [5] - Industries such as general equipment and aerospace are showing strong production expectations, with indices above 58% [5] Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery in demand supported by liquidity, with the large consumption sector outperforming the broader market [6] - The liquor industry, particularly leading brands, has shown resilience despite market pressures, with Moutai reporting a 7% growth rate, outperforming the industry [6][7] - The China Securities White Liquor Index rose by 11.22% in August, indicating positive market feedback on liquor performance [6] Sector Differentiation - Within the consumer sector, there is a notable divergence among sub-sectors, with functional beverages and snacks showing high growth potential [7] - The dairy sector is expected to improve as raw milk prices decline, leading to a potential recovery in profitability for leading dairy companies [7] - The restaurant supply chain is stabilizing, with sectors like condiments and frozen foods beginning to recover from previous lows [7] New Consumption Trends - The consumer landscape is evolving with new demands for emotional and personalized products, particularly in categories like trendy toys and beauty products [8] - Domestic brands are leveraging innovative business models and channel efficiencies to build strong user ecosystems [8] ETF Composition - The Consumption ETF (159928) has a significant allocation to leading liquor stocks, which account for 32% of the top ten holdings, alongside major players in the agricultural and food sectors [10]