Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu market, is experiencing a downturn with significant declines in stock prices of major companies, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics and financial pressures within the industry [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4128.37 points, up 0.13%, while the baijiu sector index closed at 2288.11 points, down 0.80% [1] - A total of 19 baijiu stocks declined, with notable drops in major brands: Kweichow Moutai at 1504.80 CNY/share (-1.32%), Wuliangye at 106.50 CNY/share (-0.80%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 170.28 CNY/share (-2.53%), Luzhou Laojiao at 118.19 CNY/share (-2.56%), and Yanghe at 55.08 CNY/share (-1.04%) [1] Company Insights - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report highlights a persistent mismatch between supply and demand over the past three years, with an expanding gap between "reporting" and "sales" [1] - The report suggests that Kweichow Moutai may lower its growth targets starting in Q3 of this year, which could lead to accelerated financial pressure across the industry [1] - The first turning point in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated in Q4 2025, with expectations for the "sales-reporting" gap to narrow [1] - Continuous observation of industry bottoming signals is necessary through 2026, focusing on changes in cash flow for channels and liquor companies, as well as the transition from inventory pressure to orderly clearance [1] - The price of Moutai's aged liquor is still in a bottoming phase and is expected to recover [1]

Group 1 - The liquor index experienced a decline of 2.02% during the trading session on February 10 [2] - Huangtai Liquor Company saw a drop of over 6% in its stock price [2] - Other companies such as Jinhui Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Luzhou Laojiao all reported declines exceeding 2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a slight decline in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a structural differentiation while maintaining a high-level consolidation trend [1][6]. Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven saw price declines while three experienced increases. The notable price increases include: - Qinghua Lang rose by 9 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 7 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth due to pre-festival consumption and channel replenishment support - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation saw a minor increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1][7] - Conversely, the price declines included: - Feitian Moutai decreased by 9 yuan per bottle - Premium Moutai fell by 4 yuan per bottle after a period of strong price increases - Guojiao 1573 and Qinghua Fen 20 both dropped by 3 yuan per bottle - Ancient Well Tribute 20 decreased by 2 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin and Crystal Jian Nan Chun both saw minor declines of 1 yuan per bottle [1][7]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for liquor prices is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The aim is to provide an objective, real, and scientifically traceable dataset regarding well-known liquor market prices [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai has begun to show a magnetic influence on their market retail prices. The iMoutai platform started selling Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle, which has contributed to price adjustments [2][7]. - Bernstein's recent report highlights a positive outlook on Moutai's RTM (Route to Market) channel reform, indicating a shift from passive pricing to active value chain control. Moutai has implemented dynamic contracts to replace fixed quotas, allowing for flexible price and volume adjustments [8]. Profitability and Inventory Management - Moutai's wholesale price has stabilized and rebounded, with the 500ml Feitian Moutai now priced approximately 28% higher than traditional wholesale channels, enhancing profit margins. The company has reduced the supply of high-end variants by 30%-50%, leading to a significant recovery in wholesale prices [8]. - The expected inventory of aged liquor by 2027 is projected to reach 64,000 tons, providing a solid foundation for price management. Currently, the channel profit margin for Feitian Moutai stands at 25%, significantly higher than competitors, ensuring channel loyalty and price system resilience [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a slight decline in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a structural differentiation while maintaining a high-level consolidation trend [1][6]. Price Changes - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products is 9,215 yuan, down 6 yuan from the previous day [1][6]. - Among the top ten products, seven saw price declines while three experienced increases [1][7]. - The price increases were led by Qinghua Lang, which rose by 9 yuan per bottle, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which increased by 7 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth [1][7]. - Conversely, Feitian Moutai dropped by 9 yuan per bottle, and the premium Moutai decreased by 4 yuan per bottle, following a period of strong price increases [1][7]. Data Collection Methodology - The price data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable overview of the liquor market [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai and premium Moutai has begun to show a magnetic influence on their retail prices [2][8]. - Bernstein's report highlights the successful channel reform of Kweichow Moutai, transitioning from passive pricing to active value chain control, which has led to a stabilization and rebound in wholesale prices [8]. - The implementation of dynamic contracts instead of fixed quotas allows for flexible price and volume adjustments, contributing to a significant increase in profit margins [8]. Future Outlook - The expected inventory of aged liquor by 2027 is projected to reach 64,000 tons, providing a solid foundation for price management [8]. - The profit margin for Feitian Moutai is currently at 25%, significantly higher than competitors, ensuring channel loyalty and resilience in the pricing system [8].

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry, emphasizing the need for companies to accurately grasp market trends to navigate the increasingly competitive landscape [1] Group 1: White Liquor Market - The white liquor market in January 2026 is experiencing a significant adjustment, with high inventory and low profit margins leading to a situation where channel profits for high-end liquor are compressed to 30-50 yuan per bottle [3] - Despite cautious inventory levels and thin channel profits, the online sales data from Kuaishou indicates a shift in consumer behavior, with regional brands gaining traction in a more accessible and flexible manner [2][4] - The sales proportions for mid-range price segments (100-300 yuan, 300-500 yuan, and 500-800 yuan) have all increased compared to 2025, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [4][5] - The top-selling SKUs in the high-end segment now include regional brands, suggesting consumers are seeking distinctive alternatives beyond traditional high-end products [6] Group 2: Beer Market - The beer market is showing a clear trend of consumption upgrading, with the 100-300 yuan price segment accounting for 74.75% of sales in January 2026, a significant increase from 51.54% in 2025 [8][9] - Qingdao Beer has emerged as a dominant player in the mid-range segment, successfully linking its products to the festive consumption needs of the Chinese New Year [9][11] - The marketing strategies employed by beer brands, such as festive themes and emotional connections, have transformed beer into a social currency during the holiday season [11] Group 3: Wine Market - The wine market is witnessing a shift, with consumer spending moving towards the mid-price range, particularly the 300-500 yuan segment, which saw a substantial increase from 9.28% in 2025 to 21.76% in January 2026 [12][14] - The high-end segment is experiencing a decline, while the mid-range is gaining traction, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences towards value-oriented options [12][14] - The rise of domestic brands and unique offerings in the wine market suggests a growing consumer interest in quality and storytelling, moving away from solely international brands [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a cumulative increase of 4.48% this week, with A-shares rising by 4.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.77 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2]. - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, as well as Yili in dairy and Nongfu Spring in beverages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The report notes a gradual increase in sales leading up to the Spring Festival, with Kweichow Moutai performing particularly well. It suggests that the overall decline in sales is expected to narrow to around 10% during the festive period [10]. - Investment recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on their growth potential and market recovery [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack category, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks. Leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted for their innovative product offerings [12][18]. Dairy - The dairy sector is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with a favorable valuation margin. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and a potential balance in supply and demand by mid-2026 [14]. Beverages - The beverage segment is primarily focused on inventory reduction during the off-season, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their growth strategies [15]. Supply Chain - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may accelerate the clearing of inefficient suppliers in the industry. Recommendations include leading companies like Yihai International and Haidilao [13].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's stock price has shown volatility, with a recent decline of 2.00% and a total market capitalization of 177.18 billion yuan as of February 9 [1]. Stock Performance - Luzhou Laojiao's stock has increased by 4.80% year-to-date, but has decreased by 1.34% over the last five trading days, with a 2.07% increase over the last 20 days and a 15.21% decrease over the last 60 days [2]. - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net purchase of 411 million yuan on January 29, accounting for 22.60% of total trading volume [2]. Company Overview - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is located at 71 Nanguang Road, Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, established on May 3, 1995, and listed on May 9, 1994. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of Luzhou Laojiao series liquor [2]. - The revenue composition includes 91.45% from mid-to-high-end liquor, 8.20% from other liquor, and 0.34% from other income [2]. - The company belongs to the food and beverage industry, specifically in the subcategories of liquor [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported operating revenue of 23.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.762 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 54.058 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 24.925 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 161,200, a decrease of 22.54% from the previous period, with an average of 9,114 circulating shares per person, an increase of 29.13% [2]. - Major shareholders include the China Securities Index White Liquor Index A, holding 57.2813 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 36.8068 million shares, both showing increases in holdings [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][18] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by several key themes including cost benefits, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][10][11] - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The report indicates that the sales of liquor, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, are showing positive trends as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai expected to see double-digit growth [2][10] - Investment recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on brands that are gaining market share despite overall market challenges [2][10][11] Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for recovery as demand is expected to improve [11] - Recommended companies include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are seen as strong players in the market [11] Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, particularly those involved in konjac products, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [12][18] - Key players in this segment include Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are noted for their innovative product offerings [12][18] Prepared Dishes - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may lead to a clearer industry structure and the elimination of less compliant players [13][14] - Recommended companies in this space include Yihai International and Haidilao, which are expected to benefit from improved compliance and operational efficiency [13][14] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from improved margins and reduced inventory pressures [14][15] - The report suggests that the demand for dairy products will continue to improve, particularly in the second half of 2026 [14][15] Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a seasonal inventory reduction phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival [15] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong operational performance and market expansion strategies [15][16]

智通财经记者 | 张蕊 智通财经编辑 | 任雪松 当山姆的货架将年份与价格的关系变得透明时，传统年份酒经销商长期赖以生存的根基开始动摇。 以往，年份酒的价值流转很大程度上依赖于一个相对封闭的圈层。年份所带来的"时间溢价"，衡量尺度 模糊，价格形成机制复杂。它们多在资深的经销商、特定的收藏家与烟酒行之间流通，交易往往建立在 圈内共识、个人经验与不透明的信息差之上。 如今，这套运行多年的模式正面临前所未有的挑战。首当其冲的，便是价格体系的全面穿透。白酒经销 从业人士张卫华向智通财经感慨，如今客户可以随时随地进行线上比价，线下实体店为了促成交易，有 时甚至不得不在市场整体回调的基础上进一步降价让利，"现在卖一瓶茅台，利润只有几十块钱"。 在近期山姆会员商店里，不少消费者发现，白酒区域的陈列方式已悄然改变：过去主要以风味或系列来 划分的货架，如今被更明确的年份标签重新组织起来。 货架上，一瓶2016年出产的七代经典五粮液标价1099元，一旁的2020年八代则标价949.9元；2023年茅 台1935的售价为每瓶729.9元；2020年国窖1573的售价为每瓶999.9元。这种将不同年份产品并排展示并 明码标价的方式， ...

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