本文字数：2648，阅读时长大约5分钟 2025.07. 11 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 国内市场动销的持续放缓和竞争的加剧，促使国际化也成为国内酒企关注的重点。2024年以来，国内主 流白酒企业都在推动新一轮海外市场拓展。新一轮出海虽然加速了白酒的国际化进程，但随之而来的，白 酒回流的趋势也在同步加速。在业内看来，白酒出海虽然是必由之路，但仍是任重而道远。 白酒出海与回流同步提速 2024年开始的新一轮白酒出海热仍在持续。 从2024年起，国内白酒企业就在加大国际市场的投入力度，茅台、五粮液、洋河、泸州老窖等头部酒企 除了频频在APEC等国际会议上亮相外，也多次赴东南亚、中东、南美等国家和地区开展品牌和市场营销 活动。 2025年上半年，这一趋势仍在持续，根据中酒协发布的半年酒业报告，2025年有63.9%的白酒企业均已 布局或正在拓展海外市场。调研数据反馈情况，白酒出海的目的地以亚太地区为主，韩国、日本、澳大利 亚、新加坡、马来西亚等国家（地区）也是比较热门的出海目的地，占比在3%到9%不等。此外，美国占 比17%左右。 中国食品土畜进出口商会酒类进出口商分会发布的最新数据显示，2025年1月到5月，中国 ...

积梦智能 CEO、腾讯云 TVP 谢孟军 6月20日，由上海人工智能实验室、腾讯云TVP 、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院联合主办的「智汇制造 创赢未来」腾 讯云TVP AI研讨会暨泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院智库研讨会在上海成功举办。在本次活动中，专家们现场参观全国 首个大模型创新生态社区"模速空间"，直观体验 AI 前沿技术与创新应用的碰撞。来自智能制造、数字化、AI 等 领域大咖，围绕AI技术、应用落地、行业实践心得等展开深入研讨。活动特设头脑风暴环节，各位专家畅所欲 言，进行精彩的观点碰撞，共同探讨AI的现在和未来。 主持人开场 主持人积梦智能 CEO、腾讯云 TVP 谢孟军在活动伊始时表示，我们处在一个变革之年，通用大模型加速落地， AI正从任务型算法迈向认知智能。与此同时，具身智能的崛起打破虚拟与物理世界的界限，推动行业进入生产力 革新阶段。今天，期待与各位专家老师共探大模型、具身智能的多元落地路径，为产业智能化升级提速助力。 主办方致辞 泸州老窖股份有限公司党委副书记、总经理、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院执行院长 林锋 泸州老窖股份有限公司党委副书记、总经理、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院执行院长 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.93% during the week of July 7-11, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their strong brand and channel capabilities in the high-end liquor segment, despite current demand pressures [2] - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer highlighted for their growth potential [3] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated a safety initiative for the meat industry, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality [4] Consumer Price Index - In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1% [5] Industry Trends - The demand for mass-market food products is expected to stabilize and grow in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends in healthy snacks and beverages [6] - The "Civilian Liquor Era" is emerging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye developing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [7][8] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai held a channel partner meeting to discuss market expansion and service improvement [11] - Wuliangye Group established a new energy management company, indicating diversification into battery sales and energy management [12] Financial Forecasts - Major liquor companies are experiencing pressure on profit margins, with over half reporting declines in profits and revenues in the first half of 2025 [10] - The industry is undergoing significant executive turnover, reflecting strategic shifts in response to market challenges [10] Industry Data - The price of premium liquor is currently at 438.00 yuan per bottle, reflecting market dynamics [19] - The retail prices of major dairy products and the costs of seasoning raw materials are being monitored for trends [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].

不过记者注意到，伴随着白酒出口的持续增加，大量白酒正在回流国内。今年前5个月，中国烈酒进口 来源地的第一名却是中国（按原产地规则统计），进口额1.6亿美元，同比增长56.6%，进口量为89.3万 升，同比增长64.4%，占总进口额的28.8%。而排名第二的英国进口额为1.4亿美元，同比下降了4%。 白酒国际化难以一蹴而就，需要更多耐心。 国内市场动销的持续放缓和竞争的加剧，促使国际化也成为国内酒企关注的重点。2024年以来，国内主 流白酒企业都在推动新一轮海外市场拓展。新一轮出海虽然加速了白酒的国际化进程，但随之而来的， 白酒回流的趋势也在同步加速。在业内看来，白酒出海虽然是必由之路，但仍是任重而道远。 白酒出海与回流同步提速 2024年开始的新一轮白酒出海热仍在持续。 从2024年起，国内白酒企业就在加大国际市场的投入力度，茅台、五粮液、洋河、泸州老窖等头部酒企 除了频频在APEC等国际会议上亮相外，也多次赴东南亚、中东、南美等国家和地区开展品牌和市场营 销活动。 2025年上半年，这一趋势仍在持续，根据中酒协发布的半年酒业报告，2025年有63.9%的白酒企业均已 布局或正在拓展海外市场。调研数据反馈情况 ...

记者丨肖夏 编辑丨骆一帆 2018年，泸州老窖董事长刘淼在日本考察时意外得知： 当地年轻人居然认为十几度的清酒度 数太高。 在中国，国窖1573的38度产品，已经是市面上度数最低的白酒大单品。 刘淼可能也想不到，不到十年，中国白酒的酒精度要开始向日本清酒看齐了。 前不久，多家白酒企业在年度股东大会上都谈到了低度化的动向。五粮液、泸州老窖将分别推 出29度、28度的新品，其中泸州老窖已经在研发16度、6度的产品；水井坊将在部分市场试点 推出38度以下新产品；洋河计划对33.8度微分子酒进行升级；酒鬼酒更是准备了多达四款40度 以下的低度产品…… 一时间，低度化再次成为整个白酒行业的热点。 酒精度40度以下的白酒，被定义为低度酒。从1974年问世的38度张弓酒算起，中国低度白酒 问世已有五十多年，头部名酒全部都有低度酒研发历史。 | | | 头部白酒的低度单品 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 泸州老窖 | 38度泸州老窖特曲 | 1983年研发成功 | 泸州老窖品牌低度主力产品,至今在售 | | | 38度国窖1573 | 2010年后全国铺开 | 白酒少有百亿级低度大单品,年销售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a shift towards lower alcohol content products, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao introducing new low-alcohol offerings to cater to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations [1][3][19] Industry Trends - The trend of low-alcohol liquor has gained momentum, with several companies planning to launch products with alcohol content below 40 degrees, including Luzhou Laojiao's 29-degree and 28-degree products, and Wuliangye's 39-degree offerings [1][2] - The historical context of low-alcohol liquor in China dates back over 50 years, with major brands having developed low-alcohol products since the 1970s [2][12] Consumer Preferences - A significant generational shift is occurring, with younger consumers (post-80s, post-90s, and post-00s) showing a preference for lower alcohol beverages, as evidenced by a survey where over half of respondents aged 25-35 preferred beer over liquor [3][19] - The demand for low-alcohol products is particularly strong in regions like North and East China, where products like 39-degree Wuliangye and 38-degree Guojiao 1573 have gained substantial market presence [3][16] Market Dynamics - Despite the growth of low-alcohol products, they still represent a small portion of the overall market, with only a few brands achieving significant sales figures, such as Guojiao 1573's 38-degree product reaching approximately 100 billion yuan in sales [3][19] - The industry is at a crossroads, with differing opinions on whether the low-alcohol trend is a sustainable shift or a temporary response to current market conditions [4][19] Future Outlook - The future of low-alcohol liquor in China hinges on whether companies can effectively engage younger consumers and create suitable drinking scenarios that align with their preferences [22][23] - The industry is urged to transition from a product-centric approach to a consumer-centric model, focusing on the evolving drinking habits of younger generations [23]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades four stocks: Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, ZJLD to Neutral from Buy, and Anhui Gujing to Sell from Neutral, while maintaining Buy on Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [9][36]. Core Insights - The current cycle for the spirits industry is likely prolonged due to the impact of the new austerity policy, with uncertainties on when the cycle will bottom out [1][14]. - The report anticipates policy headwinds to persist from 2Q25 to 2Q26, followed by a modest impact in 2H26 as improper dining restrictions for civil servants normalize [2][14]. - The spirits industry is expected to see a decline in total addressable market (TAM) by 10% to 14% in 2025-27E, with a forecasted decline of over 6% in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026 [2][14]. Summary by Sections Risk Profiling - A policy impact ranking analysis indicates that upper mid-end and commercial banquet-focused products will face greater pressure, while Moutai is expected to remain resilient due to its gifting demand and limited exposure to government-related banquet consumption [2][12]. Earnings and Valuation Analysis - The report projects +1%/+5% aggregated topline growth for 2025/26E, down from previous estimates of +6%/+9%, with high-end spirits expected to grow by +5%/+5% and upper-mid-high end spirits facing declines of -10%/+2% [2][14]. - A bear case analysis suggests potential earnings downside risks of 6% to 18% for most spirits names compared to the base case [2][14]. Industry Growth Forecast - The spirits industry growth forecast has been revised down to a greater than 6% decline in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026, compared to prior forecasts of +4%/+3% growth [2][14]. - The report highlights that the spirits industry has been consolidating, with leading players gaining market share, particularly in the super premium segment [2][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's wholesale price stability is supported by various measures, and the report suggests that a price below RMB 1,800 could hurt distributor profits, leading to market volatility [8][14]. - The report revises down sales and net profit estimates for various companies, including a 1% to 19% reduction for most names, reflecting the impact of the new policy [36][37].

Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Company Overview - **Company**: Luzhou Laojiao - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Digital Transformation and Market Adaptation - Luzhou Laojiao is undergoing a digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency from production to sales, aiming to adapt to future market developments, especially in light of the impact of alcohol bans [2][4][19] - The company has increased its digital investment in the supply chain and is focusing on low-alcohol and multi-specification products while emphasizing marketing towards younger consumers [2][7] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of Luzhou Laojiao is near historical lows, similar to the deep adjustment period of the baijiu industry in early 2013 [2][5] - The forecasted dividend yield for 2025 is approximately 5.4%, providing strong support for valuation and indicating limited downside potential [2][5] - Short-term valuation is expected to recover from 13 times to 15 times PE, with potential for higher valuation compared to Shanxi Fenjiu, which currently stands at 17-18 times [2][9] Market Conditions and Sales Performance - The baijiu market is expected to see stable volume and price indicators in Q3 2025, following significant disturbances in Q2 [2][6] - The worst phase of market pressure is believed to be over, with signs of improvement and potential positive policy guidance by year-end [2][6] Competitive Advantages - Luzhou Laojiao possesses strong organizational and channel management capabilities, which are considered core competitive advantages [7][11] - The company has implemented a five-in-one channel value chain management system and various strategic adjustments to enhance market penetration and adapt to consumer trends [3][10] Short-term Validation Points - The company has effectively managed inventory and stabilized prices through digital channel management, with improved relationships with distributors leading to increased confidence in receivables [8][11] - The company’s proactive adjustments and digital tools have resulted in effective channel management, despite external pressures [8][20] Future Growth Potential - Luzhou Laojiao is positioned for growth across short, medium, and long-term horizons, with a focus on expanding its low-alcohol product offerings in response to changing consumer preferences [9][28] - The company is preparing to launch additional low-alcohol products based on market demand, indicating a strategic shift towards this growing segment [29][30] Regional Market Strategy - The company has established strong bases in Sichuan and Hebei, focusing resources on these advantageous markets to maximize efficiency and market share [33] - Plans for expansion into East and South China are underway, with a focus on building strategic alliances with distributors and enhancing local marketing efforts [33] Profitability and Valuation Forecast - The overall consumption landscape remains in a recovery phase, with projected revenue decline of about 2% and profit decline of approximately 3% for the current year [34] - Long-term profitability is expected to improve, with a target valuation of around 150 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 40% [34] Additional Important Insights - The digital transformation is seen as a necessary response to the evolving market dynamics, shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market, necessitating better consumer engagement and channel management [21][22] - Luzhou Laojiao's strategic focus on low-alcohol products aligns with broader market trends and consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics and women [28][29]

中国商报（记者 周子荑 文/图）低度白酒在这个夏天引来众多关注。近来，包括五粮液、泸州老窖、洋河、水井坊在内的多家头部酒企都宣布要上市低度白 酒。实际上，此前多家酒企就曾布局30多度、40多度的低度白酒产品，而此番上市的白酒甚至降至10度左右。 业内人士分析，白酒"降度"的话题多年前就被提及，而今年低度白酒尤其火。这反映出当前白酒行业消费场景、消费渠道都发生了巨大变化，酒企再推低度 酒是为了在新的市场环境下开拓新的增长点。不过，低度白酒存在口感难调和、保质期短等问题，这也是酒企需要解决的难点。 龙头酒企纷纷推出低度白酒 近日，五粮液宣布，公司将在9月推出29度五粮液·一见倾心等低度酒产品。据介绍，五粮液已调制出三款风味酒样，正面向社会各界开展测试调研。在调研 过程中，其不仅重点考察了商务人士需求，还兼顾了年轻人的想法。 另一家龙头酒企泸州老窖董事长刘淼也在股东大会上表示，目前公司旗下38度国窖1573大受欢迎，呈现良性快速增长态势。公司已经研发出28度的国窖 1573，并将适时投放市场。 为应对白酒行业年轻化、低度化趋势，洋河旗下微分子产品也有大动作。洋河相关负责人对记者表示，针对年轻群体，微分子将要推出的品 ...