Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is actively adjusting its distribution channels and accelerating digital transformation to support long-term growth [6] Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.77% and 7.15% [6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to the increase in mid-to-low-end product sales [6] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, with a reduction of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 31.914 billion yuan, 33.924 billion yuan, and 36.537 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.804 billion yuan, 14.813 billion yuan, and 16.154 billion yuan for the same years [9][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 9.38 yuan, 10.06 yuan, and 10.97 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 155.36 CNY, maintaining the rating [5][11]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through a significant cash dividend plan [2][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 31.196 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.473 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 87.58 billion CNY over the year, representing approximately 65% of the net profit for 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 30.233 billion CNY in 2023 to 41.967 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.8% [4]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 87.5% to 88.6% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to range from 42.8% to 44.9% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 12.80 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.9 for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.8 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 28, 2025, was 125.6 CNY, with a 52-week high of 186.79 CNY and a low of 97.77 CNY [5]. - The company has experienced a relative performance decline of 28.69% over the past 12 months [6].

4月27日，泸州老窖发布了2024年年报和2025年一季报，在白酒行业进入深度调整之际，依然保持了稳 健增长。 去年整个白酒行业进入调整期，渠道库存成为很多白酒公司需要面对的难题，泸州老窖提出"开瓶为 王"，以消费者开瓶扫码作为营销政策制定和营销动作考核的核心，此举有效解决了白酒行业压货、串 货等问题。维护价盘稳定、提升渠道利润已经成为公司核心任务，这一系列措施均有助于推动渠道的良 性发展。 从现金流角度来看，去年收现比则达到128.34%，经营活动现金流净流入191.82亿元，同比增长80%， 账面现金达到了335.78亿元。 在年报发布同时，董事会宣布，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利45.92元（含税），加上中期分红， 2024年度现金分红总额达到了87.58亿元，股利支付率提高到65%。而根据公司制定的《2024-2026年度 股东分红回报规划》：2024-2026年度，每年度现金分红总额占当年归母净利润比例分别不低于65%、 从关键指标来看，去年泸州老窖合同负债（预收账款）大幅增长，显示经销商信心较强，同时也表示公 司渠道发展良性。 在账面现金大幅增长的背景下，公司宣布进一步加大分红力度，将股利支付率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in 2024, with a focus on high-end product upgrades and digital marketing strategies to enhance brand influence and consumer engagement [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.89 billion, a decline of 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion, up 0.4% year-on-year [1]. Market and Product Development - The market size is steadily progressing, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 2.8% to 27.59 billion and sales volume rising by 14.4% to 43,000 tons in 2024 [1]. - The company’s brand, Guojiao, remains in the 20 billion category, while Luzhou Laojiao has surpassed the 10 billion mark [1]. - The company is transitioning to a digital marketing strategy, launching a five-code product to reshape consumer channels and promote sales through consumer engagement [1]. Brand Strategy and Cultural Engagement - The company is enhancing brand influence through various cultural activities centered around the theme "700 Years of Chinese Strong Aroma," leveraging major events like the Olympics and the 60th anniversary of Sino-French diplomatic relations [2]. - In 2024, Guojiao 1573 was listed among the top 10 most valuable Chinese brands by Hurun [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is adopting a pragmatic approach to growth, focusing on high-quality development and stabilizing channel dynamics and pricing [2]. - The 2025 operational goal is to achieve steady revenue growth, with a projected EPS of 9.36, 10.34, and 11.21 for 2025-2027 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.19% and 1.71% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with year-on-year decreases of 16.86% and 29.86% respectively [3]. - The company adheres to a "dual brand, three product lines, and major products" strategy, with a focus on high-end liquor. The revenue from liquor operations reached 31.053 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 87.62%, showing a slight decline [4]. - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring that cash dividends will account for at least 65% of net profit for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, with a minimum total of 8.5 billion yuan in cash dividends each year [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 31.883 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.753 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 2.2% [9][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 87.54%, with a slight decline expected in the following years [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The high-end liquor segment generated 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, while other liquor products contributed 3.467 billion yuan. The high-end segment saw a volume increase of 14.39% but a price decrease of 10.15% [4]. - The company’s revenue from traditional and emerging channels was 29.573 billion yuan and 1.479 billion yuan respectively, showing growth in both areas [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 6.8 billion yuan for 2024, alongside a previously implemented 2 billion yuan interim dividend, meeting the 65% payout ratio requirement [8]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 4.75%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 311.96 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 87.54% and 43.19%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a total cash dividend of 87.58 billion yuan in 2024 [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 68.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a net profit of 18.80 billion yuan in Q4 2024, down 29.86% year-on-year [4] - The sales revenue for 2024 is expected to be 400.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.74% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is projected to be 275.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company anticipates a total of 315.76 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, with a growth rate of 1.22% [9][11] Profitability Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 134.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 1.71% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The company aims for steady growth in revenue for 2025, with projected revenues of 31.576 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.22% [9] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a target of at least 65% of net profit distributed as dividends [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross profit margin of 87.54% and a net profit margin of 43.19%, with slight declines from the previous year [3] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total operating revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a significant increase in cash receipts, totaling 40.036 billion yuan for the year, up 26.74% year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company expects revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor to reach 27.585 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company reported a total of 1,701 domestic distributors and 85 overseas distributors by the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease in numbers [5] Earnings Forecast - The company projects net profit for 2025 to be 13.585 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.83% [11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing stable revenue growth but challenges in profit margins and channel collections [1][2][5]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 9.352 billion, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, while Q4 2024 revenue was 6.893 billion, a 16.9% decrease [1]. - For the year 2024, total revenue was 31.196 billion, reflecting a 3.2% increase [1]. - The product performance showed that the low-alcohol product segment outperformed high-alcohol products, which are still undergoing inventory adjustments [3]. Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 86.5%, primarily due to product mix changes [4]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 49.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced significantly by the decline in gross margin [4]. - For 2024, the gross margin was 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, with mid-to-high-end and other liquor margins also declining [4]. Financial Quality Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue plus contract liabilities decreased by 6.7%, and cash sales fell by 7.3%, indicating challenges in channel collections [5]. Dividend Policy Summary - The company announced a dividend plan for 2024-2026, with cash dividends not less than 65%/70%/75% of profits, and a minimum of 8.5 billion (including tax) each year, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. Investment Outlook - The company aims for steady progress in 2025, focusing on the stable development of its core product, Guojiao 1573, and deepening its market presence in Sichuan and North China [7]. - The company is expected to navigate the industry adjustment cycle smoothly [8]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 32.345 billion, 33.968 billion, and 36.605 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.0%, and 7.8% respectively [10]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 13.815 billion, 14.792 billion, and 16.193 billion, with growth rates of 2.5%, 7.1%, and 9.5% respectively [10].

长江商报记者发现，自2015年开始，泸州老窖营业收入和净利润已连续10年实现"双增"。2024年，泸州 老窖中高档酒类实现营业收入275.85亿元，同比增长2.77%，占营业收入比例达88.43%。 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 黄聪 泸州老窖（000568.SZ）迎来业绩10年增长期。 4月27日晚间，泸州老窖发布年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%；净利润 134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%，均创历史新高。 在回馈投资者方面，2024年，泸州老窖先后两次分红，累计现金分红总额为87.58亿元（含税），占 2024年归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例约为65%。 中高档酒类毛利率91.85% 2024年，是泸州老窖浓香开源700周年，公司业绩保持增长。 4月27日晚间，泸州老窖发布年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%；净利润 134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%，均创历史新高。 长江商报记者发现，自2015年开始，泸州老窖营业收入和净利润已连续10年实现"双增"。 年报显示，2024年，泸州老窖酒类营业收入达310.53亿元，同比增长3. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][4] - The company has set a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65%/70%/75% of net profit for each year [1] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, which is expected to enhance internal management efficiency and eventually lead to revenue growth as the consumer-centric model is established [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] Product and Market Analysis - The sales of the Guojiao brand exceeded 20 billion yuan, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company is actively expanding both traditional and new sales channels, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 4.2% respectively in 2024 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for liquor business decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the payment price for Guojiao [2] - The company managed to maintain a good level of expense management, with the tax rate and sales expense ratio showing slight increases [2][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 31.7 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, and 35.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.7%, 5.2%, and 6.4% [4][11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.6 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.5%, and 7.1% [4][11]