Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：战略布局头部酒企，坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%，一级子行业排名第 23，与沪深 300 基本持平，子行业中白酒（+1.4%）、保健品（+1.4%）、啤酒（+1.2%）表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化，新消费标的高位震荡；传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...

Group 1: Annual Reports and Dividends - Gujinggong Liquor (000596) reported 2024 revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, up 16.41%, and net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.643 billion yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) reported 2024 revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, up 3.19%, and net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 6.759 billion yuan [2] - Gree Electric (000651) reported 2024 revenue of 189.164 billion yuan, down 7.26%, and net profit of 32.185 billion yuan, up 10.91%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 11.17 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Q1 2025 Performance - Gujinggong Liquor reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, up 10.38%, and net profit of 2.330 billion yuan, up 12.78% [2] - Gree Electric reported Q1 2025 revenue of 41.507 billion yuan, up 14.14%, and net profit of 5.904 billion yuan, up 26.29% [3] - National City Mining (000688) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.053 billion yuan, up 77.25%, and net profit of 0.0612 billion yuan, up 18279.65% [4] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 23.31 billion yuan, down 4.71%, and net profit of 0.0188 billion yuan, up 5506.92% [4] - Shenfang A (000029) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.033 billion yuan, up 457.38%, and net profit of 0.0724 billion yuan, up 3718.51% [4] - Qingda Environmental Protection (688501) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.0619 billion yuan, up 317.43%, and net profit of 0.0687 billion yuan, up 990.26% [4] - Tianbao Infrastructure (000965) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.0169 billion yuan, down 34.62%, and net profit of 0.01 billion yuan, up 737.29% [4] - Taihe Intelligent (603656) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.0105 billion yuan, up 10.19%, and net profit of 0.0002097 billion yuan, up 716.41% [5] - Meg Intelligent (002881) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.0997 billion yuan, up 73.57%, and net profit of 0.0463 billion yuan, up 616.02% [5] - Shengda Biological (603079) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.0203 billion yuan, up 9.95%, and net profit of 0.0217 billion yuan, up 469.35% [5] - Jincai Interconnection (002530) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 0.0206 billion yuan, down 33%, and net profit of 0.001364 billion yuan, up 466.95% [5] - XinSai Co. (600540) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.215 billion yuan, up 312.03%, and net profit of 0.01819 billion yuan, up 315.74% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the long-term investment value of leading traditional consumer companies after adjustments [4][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the head enterprises in traditional consumption have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. It notes that the performance of food stocks with new consumption characteristics will diverge in the future, focusing on companies with genuine long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [4][8]. - In the liquor sector, it is anticipated that sales pressure will remain significant due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios. The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while keeping an eye on Wuliangye, Jiansu Yanjia, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][8]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and new products and channels will drive growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats and categories driven by consumer trends towards self-care, health, and convenience [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.84% increase last week, with liquor rising by 1.41%. However, it underperformed the broader market by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [7][43]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.73 percentage points from July 7 to July 11, 2025. The sub-industries, including liquor, beer, and snacks, also showed varying degrees of underperformance [43][44]. 3. Key Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [12]. - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 41.6% [13]. - Youyou Foods projects a net profit of 105 to 112 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a growth of 37.91% to 47.57% [14]. 4. Price Trends and Cost Changes - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year. The report also notes price trends for various agricultural products, including pork and soybeans [24][39][40].

Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends in Baijiu Sector - Foreign investment in the baijiu sector has been decreasing, with Kweichow Moutai's foreign ownership dropping from 26% to nearly 13% over the past five years, representing a reduction of about 50% [1] - Other major baijiu companies have also seen significant reductions in foreign holdings, with Luzhou Laojiao decreasing from 8.1% to 4.5% (44% reduction), Yanghe from 27.4% to 3.5% (87% reduction), and Gujing Gong from 10.3% to 3.8% (63% reduction) [2] - Wuliangye has experienced a similar trend, with foreign ownership decreasing from 26% to approximately 7%, equating to a 73% reduction over the last five years [3] Group 2: Recent Performance and Forecasts - Recent quarterly data indicates that Kweichow Moutai had two quarters of net buying and two quarters of net selling, with total shares held decreasing from 87 million to 73 million, a 16% reduction over the past year [1] - Forecasts for the first half of 2025 suggest Kweichow Moutai will see a revenue growth of 9%, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 1-2%, and Luzhou Laojiao is projected to decline by 6-10% [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu is an exception, with foreign holdings increasing from 36 million to 49 million shares over the past year, indicating a 36% increase in foreign investment [12] Group 3: Overall Industry Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the baijiu industry appears cautious, with many companies experiencing declines in foreign investment, suggesting that the industry's fundamentals may not have fully bottomed out [9] - The baijiu index has been one of the worst-performing indices this year, raising concerns about whether the actual earnings will meet broker expectations [10]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday increase of 1.33% before closing up 0.5% [1] - Major liquor stocks saw significant gains, with Lotus Holdings rising by 3.83%, and both Jinzhidao and Luzhou Laojiao increasing by over 2% [3] - Moutai Sauce Wine Company reported achieving its operational goals for the first half of 2025, which may boost investor confidence in the liquor sector [3] Group 2 - The food and beverage industry has undergone profound changes in both supply and demand since 2025, with a mix of upgrades and downgrades in consumer preferences [4] - Analysts suggest that the current industry transformation indicates a cyclical change, recommending companies with balanced product structures and healthy inventories [4] - Investment strategies should focus on stable demand leaders and companies innovating in new products and channels [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the China Securities Index for the food and beverage sector, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and sub-high-end liquor stocks [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

本文字数：2648，阅读时长大约5分钟 2025.07. 11 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 国内市场动销的持续放缓和竞争的加剧，促使国际化也成为国内酒企关注的重点。2024年以来，国内主 流白酒企业都在推动新一轮海外市场拓展。新一轮出海虽然加速了白酒的国际化进程，但随之而来的，白 酒回流的趋势也在同步加速。在业内看来，白酒出海虽然是必由之路，但仍是任重而道远。 白酒出海与回流同步提速 2024年开始的新一轮白酒出海热仍在持续。 从2024年起，国内白酒企业就在加大国际市场的投入力度，茅台、五粮液、洋河、泸州老窖等头部酒企 除了频频在APEC等国际会议上亮相外，也多次赴东南亚、中东、南美等国家和地区开展品牌和市场营销 活动。 2025年上半年，这一趋势仍在持续，根据中酒协发布的半年酒业报告，2025年有63.9%的白酒企业均已 布局或正在拓展海外市场。调研数据反馈情况，白酒出海的目的地以亚太地区为主，韩国、日本、澳大利 亚、新加坡、马来西亚等国家（地区）也是比较热门的出海目的地，占比在3%到9%不等。此外，美国占 比17%左右。 中国食品土畜进出口商会酒类进出口商分会发布的最新数据显示，2025年1月到5月，中国 ...

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Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.93% during the week of July 7-11, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their strong brand and channel capabilities in the high-end liquor segment, despite current demand pressures [2] - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer highlighted for their growth potential [3] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated a safety initiative for the meat industry, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality [4] Consumer Price Index - In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1% [5] Industry Trends - The demand for mass-market food products is expected to stabilize and grow in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends in healthy snacks and beverages [6] - The "Civilian Liquor Era" is emerging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye developing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [7][8] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai held a channel partner meeting to discuss market expansion and service improvement [11] - Wuliangye Group established a new energy management company, indicating diversification into battery sales and energy management [12] Financial Forecasts - Major liquor companies are experiencing pressure on profit margins, with over half reporting declines in profits and revenues in the first half of 2025 [10] - The industry is undergoing significant executive turnover, reflecting strategic shifts in response to market challenges [10] Industry Data - The price of premium liquor is currently at 438.00 yuan per bottle, reflecting market dynamics [19] - The retail prices of major dairy products and the costs of seasoning raw materials are being monitored for trends [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].