日前，国际诗酒文化大会第九届中国酒城·泸州老窖文化艺术周在四川泸州举行。作为本届艺术周 亮点活动，11月2日，"让诗酒温暖每个人"荣耀盛典之夜在泸州奥体中心开启，通过诗歌、音乐、戏 剧、舞蹈等多元艺术形式的跨界融合，呈现一场诗酒飘香、文化交融的嘉年华。 国际诗酒文化大会由泸州市人民政府、《诗刊》社主办，中国诗歌网、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究 院、中视华凯传媒集团承办。自2017年至今，已连续举办九届。九年来，大会共开展超过200场文化交 流活动，征集到超过50万首优秀诗歌作品，成为向世界展示酒城风采、传递中国文化魅力、促进中外文 化交流的重要窗口。 今年文化艺术周除荣耀盛典之夜外，还开展酒城讲坛、创作交流会、诗歌朗诵会、酒城文化采风等 活动，既为诗歌、文学领域的学术交流、创作分享搭建了平台。 让诗酒成为连接世界的语言 泸州有着两千多年的酿酒历史，自古便吸引无数文人墨客饮酒作诗。作为发源于泸州的中国名酒， 泸州老窖拥有连续使用至今已452年，被列为行业首家"全国重点文物保护单位"的活态酿酒窖池"1573国 宝窖池群"，和传承24代、701年，入选首批"国家级非物质文化遗产"名录的活态酿酒技艺"泸州老窖酒 传统酿 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the white liquor sector has entered a strategic allocation period, with a focus on high-quality companies for long-term investment [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry experienced significant declines in revenue and profit in Q3 2025, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops. Public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have returned to levels seen in Q1 2017 [3][8]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that it is possible to predict a bottoming out of the market in the near future, allowing for long-term pricing of quality enterprises [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding fundamental improvements, as the performance of individual stocks may vary during this adjustment phase [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, the white liquor industry achieved revenue of 310.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.48%, and a net profit of 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% [4][14]. - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% [17][19]. - The net profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [24][27]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the white liquor sector was 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE multiple compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [5][11]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure, suggesting potential for recovery if demand improves [5][11]. 3. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [3][8].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 这些都让萦绕全行业三年的终极疑问，显得愈发沉重迫切。 中国白酒行业到底见底了吗？当下究竟是周期性调整的尾声，还是结构性衰退的开端？ 为回答这个问题，我构建了一套涵盖6类18项"见底"前瞻指标的分析系统，结合三季报核心数据与行业实时动态，对照白酒产业史上两次危机经验 和全球烈酒周期规律，尝试解析本轮调整的核心逻辑与未来走向。 01 财报的寒意 2025年三季度，白酒行业"强者愈强、弱者愈弱"的分化格局达到历史极值。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 方醒鹿 来源：雪球 截至10月31日，白酒行业上市公司的三季报全部出齐。 超预期的惨淡数据与最新行业动态相互印证，库存高企与价格倒挂的恶性循环持续加剧，消费需求疲软与行业出清加速并行，此前众人预期的"触 底反弹"化为泡影。 仅少数头部企业维持增长韧性，多数次高端及区域酒企陷入营收利润双降的困境，行业出清速度显著加快，印证了"凛冬之下，唯有龙头抗寒"的残 酷现实。 头部酒企增速放缓但韧性凸显，成为行业"压舱石"。 贵州茅台以绝对优势保持行业定力，前三季度实现营业总收入13 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is implementing a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices while enhancing channel penetration to strengthen end-user reach [3] - The company is focusing on promoting mid-to-high-end products and has initiated trials for new products in key cities [3] - The financial performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 23.127 billion yuan (down 5% year-on-year) and net profit of 10.762 billion yuan (down 7% year-on-year) [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total revenue was 6.674 billion yuan (down 10% year-on-year), and net profit was 3.099 billion yuan (down 13% year-on-year) [1][2] - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 87.17%, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin products [2] - The net profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 46.62% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with three product lines and a major product approach, adapting to consumer demand and channel changes [4] - There is an emphasis on digital transformation in channels, including the establishment of an e-commerce platform and partnerships with mainstream e-commerce and instant retail platforms [3] Earnings Forecast - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 8.26, 8.64, and 9.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 16, and 14 times [4] - The company anticipates steady business development in the future, driven by the expansion into low-alcohol products and deeper market penetration [4]

国盛证券在其研报中指出，供给端看，酒企持续推进去库稳价等供给优化动作，且Q3报表普遍加速出 清、风险持续释放。需求端看，白酒批价和动销持续磨底。估值端看，白酒板块估值、市场预期、机构 持仓已处在历史低位，同时茅五泸洋等龙头酒企已在分红上树立标杆，优质龙头估值低位叠加股息率支 撑，白酒板块绝对收益布局正当时。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1429.00元/股，下跌0.42%；五粮液收盘价达117.16元/股，下跌1.53%； 山西汾酒收盘价达188.90元/股，下跌2.18%；泸州老窖收盘价133.10元/股，下跌1.44%；洋河股份收盘 价达70.56元/股，下跌0.48%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）11月4日尾盘，三大指数集体下跌，沪指3960.19点下跌0.41%。白酒 板块2283.52点收盘下跌0.53%，其中20只白酒股下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.19% to 3969.05 points, and the liquor sector, particularly baijiu stocks, also faced downward pressure, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1] Industry Summary - The baijiu sector saw a collective decline, with 19 out of 20 baijiu stocks falling, reflecting broader market trends [1] - Major baijiu brands reported the following closing prices: Kweichow Moutai at 1426.92 CNY per share (down 0.56%), Wuliangye at 117.68 CNY (down 1.09%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 189.34 CNY (down 1.95%), Luzhou Laojiao at 134.10 CNY (down 0.70%), and Yanghe at 71.08 CNY (up 0.25%) [1] Company Insights - According to Guosheng Securities, since Q3, there has been a sequential improvement in baijiu sales, with Kweichow Moutai stabilizing in July, warming up in August, and improving in September [1] - The demand from weddings and family banquets has positively impacted the sales of mid-range priced baijiu, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1] - Major liquor companies are focusing on price stability and market maintenance, leveraging product and channel innovations to cater to new scenarios and demands, suggesting a strategic shift in response to industry pressures [1] - The most significant sales pressure for the baijiu sector appears to have passed, with expectations for further stabilization and recovery in demand moving forward [1]

25前三季度白酒行业净利率40.6%，同比下滑0.5个百分点，净利率下降主因税率提升与毛利率下降。 25Q3白酒行业净利率38.0%，同比下滑1.7个百分点，主因毛利率下降、营业税金率及管理费用率提 升。 国泰海通发布研报称，尽管基本面的改善仍要耐心等待，但从三季报的表现看，主要白酒上市公司收入 同比大幅下滑，报表加速出清；与此同时，高端白酒价格近期继续下跌，市场在加速寻找量价平衡。对 资本市场的变化则是从过去的不知何时触底，到能够在未来可预判的时间内触底。对中长期资金来讲， 已可以对优质企业进行长期定价。因此，对优质公司而言，已经进入战略配置期。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 基本面分析：25Q3基本面加速下行，报表端加速出清 白酒行业2025前三季度实现营业收入3102.8亿元，同比下降5.48%，净利润1226.9亿元，同比下降 6.63%。从收入和利润变化增速看，都为全国化名酒>地产酒>次高端。25Q3白酒行业实现营业收入 763.1亿元，同比下降18.4%，净利润282.1亿元，同比下降22.0%。从营收增速看，全国化名酒>地产酒> 次高端酒，利润增速看全国化名酒>次高端酒>地产酒。 截至2025年10月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value competition," with Luzhou Laojiao demonstrating strong resilience and performance during this period [1][3][23] Financial Performance - Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 23.127 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.762 billion yuan in the first three quarters, maintaining its position among the top liquor brands [1] - The company's sales gross margin remained above 87%, leading the industry [6] - As of November 3, Luzhou Laojiao's stock price increased by approximately 13% year-to-date, ranking first among major liquor companies [10] Brand Strategy - The "dual brand, three product lines, and major product" strategy continues to be effective, with the flagship product, Guojiao 1573, maintaining stable pricing and strong sales [4][6] - Guojiao 1573's wholesale price has remained around 850 yuan, showing minimal fluctuation, making it the most stable high-end liquor product this year [6] Channel Development - Luzhou Laojiao has been actively expanding its channels, with new channel revenue increasing by 27.55% year-on-year in the first half of the year [8] - The "Hundred Cities Plan" focuses on refined operations in key cities, while the "East China Strategy 2.0" enhances penetration in economically developed regions [7] Long-term Strategy - The company is investing in digitalization and smart manufacturing, improving production efficiency and reducing operational costs [15][16] - Luzhou Laojiao's commitment to long-term growth is reflected in its significant increase in construction projects, with a 67.55% rise in construction project balances [16] Shareholder Returns - The controlling shareholder has increased its stake by 2.345 million shares, amounting to nearly 300 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in the company's future [18] - The revised dividend policy aims to increase the dividend payout ratio to 75% from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [19][20] Market Position - Luzhou Laojiao's market value has increased over tenfold compared to the previous cycle's bottom in 2014, establishing it as a benchmark for industry value [21] - The company has attracted significant investment, with various funds increasing their holdings, indicating strong market confidence [22]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value competition," with Luzhou Laojiao demonstrating strong resilience and performance during this period [1][3]. Industry Overview - The overall liquor industry is facing pressure, leading to increased differentiation among companies. Luzhou Laojiao has shown robust resistance to cyclical challenges, maintaining stable performance and brand strength [3][10]. - As of November 3, Luzhou Laojiao's stock price has increased approximately 13% this year, ranking among the top in the liquor sector [9][10]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 231.27 million yuan and a net profit of 107.62 million yuan, maintaining its position among leading liquor brands [1][5]. - The company's sales gross margin remained above 87%, continuing to lead the industry [7]. Strategic Initiatives - Luzhou Laojiao's "dual brand, three product lines, and major product" strategy has proven effective, with the Guojiao 1573 brand maintaining stable pricing and sales [5][7]. - The wholesale price of Guojiao 1573 has remained around 850 yuan, showing minimal fluctuation, making it the most stable high-end liquor product this year [7][8]. Channel Development - The company has focused on channel deepening, with new channel revenue increasing by 27.55% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outperforming the industry average [9]. - Luzhou Laojiao has implemented targeted marketing strategies in key cities and expanded into new channels such as e-commerce and live streaming [8][9]. Long-term Vision - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to youth-oriented and digital transformation strategies, aiming to capture the next generation of consumers [11][13]. - The company has invested in smart brewing technology and logistics, increasing production efficiency and reducing operational costs [13][14]. Shareholder Engagement - The controlling shareholder has increased their stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its future growth. The company has also revised its dividend policy to enhance shareholder returns [16][17]. - Luzhou Laojiao's market value has increased over tenfold since the last industry downturn in 2014, establishing it as a benchmark for industry value [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly for high-quality companies, indicating a strategic allocation period has begun [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops in revenue and net profit. The public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have also decreased to levels not seen since Q1 2017 [2][7]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that long-term investors can start pricing high-quality companies as the market is expected to reach a predictable bottom in the near future [2][7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of CNY 310.28 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, with net profit falling by 6.63% to CNY 122.69 billion. The revenue decline is more pronounced in lower-tier brands compared to national brands [3][16]. - In Q3 2025, the industry generated CNY 76.31 billion in revenue, down 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 22.0% to CNY 28.21 billion. National brands outperformed lower-tier brands in both revenue and profit growth [3][19]. - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [3][20]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector stands at 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4][10]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure. If demand improves, the industry could return to a phase of simultaneous valuation and performance recovery [4][10]. 3. Company Performance and Profitability Forecast - The report highlights that the profitability of the liquor industry is under pressure, with significant declines in net profit margins across various brands. The national brands have seen a smaller decline compared to lower-tier brands [3][22]. - The report provides a detailed forecast of operational goals and profitability estimates for key liquor companies, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [4][10].