Core Viewpoint - The overall sales of liquor during the Spring Festival period are expected to decline by 8%, which is better than previous pessimistic forecasts, with varying performance across different consumption categories [1]. Group 1: Consumption Environment - The Spring Festival sales have fully commenced, with an overall expected decline of 8% in liquor sales during this period [1]. - Gift consumption (mass premium) is expected to see slight growth, while business consumption is projected to decline by 20% [1]. - Residential consumption is expected to remain flat with slight growth, and government consumption is anticipated to drop by 90% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - **Kweichow Moutai**: The return of funds for the March flying Moutai is not fully completed, with zero inventory and low channel stocking willingness, focusing more on turnover rates. The post-holiday price is expected to stabilize at 1550 yuan [1]. - **Wuliangye**: Current shipments are up by 30% year-on-year, with sales performance showing a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The current return progress for Guojiao 1573 is at 35%, with approximately three months of inventory. However, both shipment and sales are down by over 30% and 25% respectively, despite stable pricing [1]. - **Honghua Lang**: Currently, sales are up by 9% year-on-year [2]. - **Jian Nan Chun**: Sales are flat year-on-year [2]. - **Shede and Shui Jing Fang**: Both brands have seen slight declines despite low base comparisons [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the poor performance of liquor and consumer goods stocks, with significant declines in companies like Lianhua Holdings and Gujing Gongjiu, impacting the overall sector [1] - The wholesale price of Moutai liquor has increased, with the 2026 original box price rising by 25 yuan to 1715 yuan per bottle, while the 2025 original box price also saw a similar increase [2][3] - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, suggesting a potential good entry point for investments, with the food and beverage ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.58 times, which is in the 9.2% percentile of the last decade [3] Group 2 - Analysts expect improvements in supply and demand relationships across various sub-sectors in 2026, with a clearer recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a potential bottoming out for traditional consumption sectors [3] - The food and beverage sector is seen as a crucial part of domestic demand, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand expected to positively impact the sector [3] - The food and beverage ETF is heavily weighted towards leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to these companies, including major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a shift in consumer preferences, with a notable increase in demand for products priced around 300 yuan, contrasting with previous years where high-end products priced at 1,000 yuan were more popular. This indicates a transition from scale expansion to competition within existing market shares as the industry adapts to changing consumer behavior [1][2][7]. Market Trends - Consumers are increasingly opting for mid-range liquor products, with many shifting from high-end options to those around 300 yuan due to better cost-performance ratios [2][3]. - The sales of products priced at 300 yuan have become the main focus in retail markets, while products priced above 800 yuan have also seen slight growth during the festive season [2][3]. - The overall market is witnessing a bifurcation, with both low-end (under 100 yuan) and high-end (over 800 yuan) segments gaining market share, while mid-range products face pressure [3][7]. Marketing Strategies - Major liquor companies are implementing various promotional activities to stimulate market activity, including gift card promotions and cash rewards for consumers [4][5]. - The focus has shifted from merely increasing cash flow to enhancing actual sales and reducing inventory through innovative marketing strategies [5][6]. Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost liquor sales, with expectations of increased consumer gatherings and spending due to an extended holiday period [6][7]. - There is a notable trend of consumers prioritizing value for money, leading to a preference for products that meet both family and business gathering needs [2][6]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, moving towards a dual competition model involving both channel-owned and manufacturer-owned products, which is expected to diversify the competitive landscape [7][8]. - The integration of new technologies and innovative retail channels is becoming crucial for liquor companies to adapt to evolving consumer demands and enhance sales effectiveness [8].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has been focusing on quality since the "13th Five-Year Plan," advancing its digital transformation and efficiency improvements through significant projects like the Huangyi Brewing Ecological Park and Intelligent Packaging Center [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation - The company is committed to enhancing its information technology, automation, and intelligence processes [1] - Significant projects have been established to support this transformation, including the Huangyi Brewing Ecological Park and Intelligent Packaging Center [1] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Intelligent brewing processes have been implemented to reduce costs and improve efficiency [1] - Quality control measures have been refined to ensure high standards [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Resilience - The company has strengthened its supply chain to ensure stability and resilience [1] - The overall focus is on achieving a smart transformation and enhancing operational effectiveness [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, specifically Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, while suggesting an increase in holdings for Yingjia Gongjiu [8][28]. Core Insights - The overall sales decline in the industry before the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, with Moutai showing leading performance. The industry is experiencing a double-digit sales decline, but demand is gradually recovering as the Spring Festival approaches. The pressure on channels is easing, and confidence in the industry is expected to improve [1][12]. - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in demand from traditional channels. The report anticipates a net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [1][12]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline. The next high-end price segment is under significant pressure [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Sales Feedback - The report summarizes feedback from various regions, indicating that the overall sales decline is in line with expectations. Moutai's performance is notably strong, with double-digit growth in sales volume. Other brands, such as Wuliangye, show regional sales differentiation, particularly in areas like Sichuan, where sales have accelerated due to previous inventory control measures [1][12][15]. 2. Core Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are expected to continue growing, with a current average delivery progress exceeding 30%. The report notes that Moutai's inventory is low, and the market remains in a supply-demand imbalance, supporting price stability [24][28]. - Wuliangye's sales are stable, with delivery progress around 35-40%. The report indicates that the brand's performance is slightly better than last year, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui [24][28]. - Luzhou Laojiao is experiencing slower sales, with delivery progress below 20%. The brand's high-end products are facing a decline in demand, while lower-end products still show some demand [25][28]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales are performing better than the industry average, with a stable inventory situation and continued growth in certain products [25][28]. - Yingjia Gongjiu is expected to see a slight decline in sales, but certain products are performing relatively well [26][28]. 3. Industry Holdings Analysis - The report notes that institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with a significant decrease in the proportion of active fund holdings in the liquor sector. This trend indicates a potential for recovery as the market stabilizes [2][8].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the establishment of Shenzhen Jinmeiyuantou Enterprise Management Partnership with a capital contribution of 490 million yuan, focusing on enterprise management consulting and investment activities [1] - The partnership is co-funded by Luzhou Laojiao Group and Sichuan Jinjue Investment Co., Ltd., indicating strategic investment moves by the company [1] Group 2 - The Food and Beverage ETF (Product Code: 515170) tracks the China Securities Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, with a recent five-day decline of 1.46% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.42 times [3] - The Gaming ETF (Product Code: 159869) follows the China Securities Animation and Gaming Index, experiencing a five-day drop of 3.54% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.48 times [3] - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF (Product Code: 588000) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech 50 Index, showing a five-day increase of 2.63% with a high price-to-earnings ratio of 179.47 times [3] - The Media ETF (Product Code: 516190) tracks the China Securities Entertainment and Media Index, with a recent five-day increase of 2.32% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.15 times [3]

Group 1 - Shenzhen Jin Gao Yi Hao Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) has been established with a capital contribution of approximately 250 million RMB [1] - The managing partner is Jin Hui Hong Hu (Shenzhen) Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., and the business scope includes investment activities, enterprise management, enterprise management consulting, and financial consulting [1] - The partnership is jointly funded by Luzhou Laojiao (000568) subsidiary Sichuan Jin Jue Investment Co., Ltd., Jin Hui Hong Hu (Shenzhen) Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., and Luzhou High-tech Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail prices of the top ten Chinese liquor products have slightly weakened, with a total price of 9183 yuan, down 32 yuan from the previous day, marking a recent low [1][6][7] - Among the top ten products, six saw price declines, three increased, and one remained stable. The price increases were led by Xijiu Junpin, which rose by 7 yuan per bottle, and Guizhou Moutai Feitian, which increased by 6 yuan per bottle due to pre-holiday consumption and channel replenishment demand [1][6][7] - The report highlights that the market is experiencing high-level consolidation and structural differentiation, with some brands like Qinghua Lang and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ dropping by 13 yuan per bottle, and Guojiao 1573 decreasing by 11 yuan per bottle, likely due to pre-holiday inventory adjustments [1][6][7] Group 2 - The data for the liquor prices is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable market price for well-known liquors [2][7] - The introduction of new sales channels for Guizhou Moutai Feitian at 1499 yuan per bottle and premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle has begun to show a magnetic influence on the market retail prices of these products [2][7] - Dongwu Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, noting its steady national expansion and significant growth potential in the clear liquor market, with projected revenues reaching 600-700 billion yuan in the medium to long term [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector, suggesting investors take advantage of low prices to acquire quality leading companies [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector, driven by seasonal demand and improved sales performance during the Chinese New Year [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading brands with strong fundamentals, particularly in the liquor and dairy segments, as they are expected to outperform their peers [2][4]. Summary by Category Liquor - The liquor industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with top brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing strong sales, while others face challenges [1]. - Kweichow Moutai benefits from marketing reforms and strong demand, with its product prices stabilizing above 1600 RMB [1]. - Recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading brands for investment [1]. Dairy Products - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to achieve strong sales during the Chinese New Year, with inventory levels remaining healthy [2]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the raw milk cycle, with prices expected to stabilize, benefiting leading dairy firms [2]. - Recommended stocks include Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to gain market share in 2026 [2]. Restaurant Supply Chain and Condiments - The report sees a recovery in the restaurant sector, supported by government policies and improved consumer confidence [3]. - Leading companies are adjusting pricing strategies to enhance profitability, with inventory levels remaining healthy [3]. - Key recommendations include Anjijia and Haitian Flavoring, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [3]. Snacks - The snack industry is poised for growth, with increased sales during the Chinese New Year and a shift towards efficient retail channels [4]. - Recommended stocks include Weilian and Qiaqia, which are expected to maintain high profitability levels [4].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on February 10, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) declining by 1.17% by the end of the trading day, primarily driven by substantial losses in the liquor segment, particularly among major brands like Guizhou Moutai and others [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened weakly and showed low-level fluctuations throughout the day, closing down 1.17% [1]. - Major liquor stocks such as Jiu Gui Jiu fell by 3.35%, while Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shede Liquor dropped over 2%, with Guizhou Moutai and Yanghe Co. also declining more than 1% [1][2]. Group 2: Upcoming Product Launch - The official announcement from "i Moutai" indicated that the 53-degree 500ml Guizhou Moutai liquor (Bingwu Year) will be available for sale from February 10 to February 16, with limited quantities [2][3]. - The product launch is strategically timed to capture gift-giving and collection demands during the Spring Festival, which is expected to boost direct sales and gross margins for Moutai [3]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - Analysts noted that the food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it an attractive time for investment [3]. - As of February 9, the price-to-earnings ratio for the Huabao ETF's underlying index was 20.85, placing it in the 11.55% percentile of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Dongfang Securities suggested that the liquor channel may be at a turning point, with expectations of performance improvement in the upcoming quarterly reports, marking a potential investment window for the sector [4]. - Galaxy Securities projected that supply-demand dynamics across various sub-sectors will improve by 2026, with traditional consumption benefiting from a recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is positioned to track the sub-sector index, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading high-end and mid-range liquor brands, while the remaining 40% includes leaders in beverages, dairy, and condiments [5]. - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked funds for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [5].