Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported its worst performance in a decade, with revenue growth slowing significantly and net profit growth plummeting to a near standstill in 2024 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue reached 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 3.19%, while net profit grew by just 1.71% to 13.473 billion yuan [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed further decline, with revenue and net profit growth dropping to 1.78% and 0.41%, respectively [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 80.14% to 19.182 billion yuan [2] Sales and Market Dynamics - Luzhou Laojiao's sales volume for white liquor in 2024 was 103,761.06 tons, a growth of 7.77%, down from 11.71% the previous year [6][7] - The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 88.43% of total revenue, but the overall net profit growth reached a ten-year low [3][5] - The company faced challenges with price inversion, particularly with its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, which saw its market price drop below 900 yuan per bottle, impacting dealer profit margins [10] Inventory and Cost Management - As of the end of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's inventory reached 13.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.24% [10][11] - The company managed to achieve slight net profit growth primarily through significant cost reductions, including a 10.97% decrease in sales expenses [5][10] Competitive Position - Luzhou Laojiao's market position has weakened, falling behind competitors like Yanghe and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a revenue gap widening from 11 billion yuan in 2022 to 17 billion yuan in 2023 [12][14] - The company has not met its strategic goal of returning to the top three in the industry, citing external market factors as a significant challenge [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is showing a stable recovery with major companies like Moutai setting a 9% revenue growth target, Wuliangye aligning with macro indicators, and Luzhou Laojiao emphasizing steady growth. The supply-side pressure in the industry has significantly eased, and channel feedback is expected to improve [1][3]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have reported double-digit growth, slightly exceeding market expectations, while Luzhou Laojiao's cash flow performance is better than its apparent data [3]. Beer Industry - The beer sector performed well in Q1 2025, with small breweries like Zhujiang and Yanjing showing outstanding results. Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer met expectations, and structural improvements are noted despite pressure on ton prices [4][5]. Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to trend towards health and functionality, with Dongpeng Beverage showing high growth and new products like health water from Lululemon gaining attention. Nongfu Spring is also highlighted as a company to watch [6]. Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is experiencing supply-side adjustments, with Yili's Q1 report showing positive revenue growth. The improvement in demand is expected to resonate with the raw milk cycle, while Mengniu is noted for its defensive attributes [7]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is exhibiting a new consumption growth trend, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou revising their forecasts upward. Yuyou has entered new channels, and Ganyuan's overseas market prospects for Q2 are promising [8]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is showing a trend of low performance followed by high recovery, particularly in sports apparel. Anta Sports is effectively managing multiple brands, while home textile companies like Luolai and Mercury Home Textile are seen as defensive investments [11][12]. Key Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended stocks include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Fenjiu and Wuliangye [10]. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and its strong dividend yield [5]. - **Dairy**: Yili and Mengniu are highlighted as key players [10]. - **Beverages**: Nongfu Spring and Lululemon are recommended [10]. - **Snacks**: Weilong, Yuyou, and Ganyuan are noted for their growth potential [10]. - **Textiles**: Anta Sports and home textile brands like Luolai are recommended for their defensive qualities [11][12]. Additional Insights - The pig farming sector is currently valued highly, with pig prices remaining elevated, but the breeding sector's outlook is cautious due to limited capacity recovery. Key companies to watch include Muyuan, Shennong Group, and Dekang [2][20]. - The poultry industry, particularly yellow feathered chickens, is facing challenges with prices down from last year, but companies like Lihua and Wens continue to expand [21]. - The retail sector is experiencing rapid growth, especially in the snack segment, with companies like Liangpinpuzi expected to open numerous new stores [33][34]. - The home appliance industry is focusing on tariff adjustments and new consumption trends, with companies like Vanward Electric and TCL Electronics showing strong performance [37][38].

在宏观变局与行业新局交织的2024年，泸州老窖凭借稳健的经营策略与创新驱动，在年度财报中展现出 稳健的增长势头。2024年，泸州老窖实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.18%，归属于上市公司股东 的净利润达134.73亿元，增幅达1.71%，各项业绩指标再创历史新高，营收与利润双增长，彰显其在复 杂市场环境下的卓越韧性。 "泸州老窖取得了'十四五'发展的阶段性胜利。今天的泸州老窖，'稳'的基础在筑牢，'进'的力度在加 大，'新'的动能在成长，'好'的因素在累积，这更加坚定了我们在新周期勇往直前的信心和底气。"不久 前，泸州老窖董事长刘淼在2024-2025年度泸州老窖经销商表彰暨营销会议上表示。 另一个值得关注的点在于，尽管去年白酒行业处于深度调整期，酒类消费市场进入到存量期，行业竞争 加剧，但泸州老窖经营性现金流表现强劲，2024年经营活动现金流净额达到191.82亿元，同比增长 80.14%。这反映出泸州老窖在经营质量上的显著提升。 数智化转型成绩斐然，构建穿越周期新动能 2024年，泸州老窖高端化战略深化成效明显。作为核心大单品的国窖1573，年销售收入成功突破200亿 元大关，稳居中国三大高端白 ...

4月27日，泸州老窖发布2024年度业绩报告。在酒水市场处于深度调整期的背景下，泸州老窖仍交出营收净利双增长的成绩单，报告期内实现营收311.96 亿元，同比增长3.19%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%。泸州老窖计划每10股派发现金红利45.92元（含税），公司已于 2025年1月24日实施2024年度中期分红方案，向全体股东每10股派发现金13.58元（含税），共计派发近20亿元（含税）。 2024年，白酒行业整体仍在调整，行业集中度进一步提升，高端化、品牌化发展势头持续加强；2024年，同样是泸州老窖酒传统酿制技艺不断代传承的 700周年。这一年泸州老窖在良性发展的基础上，不仅取得了稳健业绩，还在高端化、数智化、价值提升等方面有了新突破，展现了浓香鼻祖的韧性及实 力。 高端品牌势能持续上扬，"双品牌、三品系、大单品"全线发力 从2024年的产品表现来看，泸州老窖旗下国窖1573等高端产品，在市场上展现出稳定的销售业绩，成为推动公司收入增长的核心要素。 全面推进数智化战略转型，赋能生产、渠道、市场管理升级 在2024年报中，除了披露相关数据及发展规划，泸州老窖还提及数智 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - As of April 29, 2024, 17 A-share liquor companies reported a total revenue of 386.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.61% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 149.63 billion yuan, up 6.65% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 158.20 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.28% increase year-on-year [1] - The white liquor industry is expected to experience structural differentiation in 2025, with leading companies consolidating their advantages through branding, channels, and innovation [1] Group 2: Leading Companies Performance - Guizhou Moutai ranked first in revenue with 170.90 billion yuan, a 15.71% increase year-on-year [2] - Other companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Brewery also reported revenues exceeding 20 billion yuan [2] - Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye together accounted for 67.34% of total revenue among the 17 companies, with a combined net profit share of 78.91% [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The total production of white liquor in 2024 was 4.14 million kiloliters, a decrease of 1.80% year-on-year, while sales revenue grew by 5.30% [3] - The industry is characterized by a shift from volume and price increases to prioritizing quality and efficiency, alongside multi-dimensional innovation [1][3] - High inventory levels and price inversions have been significant issues in the past two years, with total inventory for the 17 companies rising by 12.50% to 146.33 billion yuan [5] Group 4: International Expansion - In 2024, the export value of white liquor reached 970 million USD, accounting for 51% of total liquor exports, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [6] - The average export price increased to 59.0 USD per liter, reflecting a 13.3% rise [6] - Leading companies are focusing on international market expansion as a key strategy for growth, with Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye outlining plans for global outreach [7]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declining revenues and profits, indicating a challenging market environment [1][12][18]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of April 29, nearly all listed white liquor companies reported a slowdown in performance for 2024, with six companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [1][4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, nearly half of the white liquor companies reported negative performance, with some experiencing revenue declines of 20% to 30% [1][12]. - The total revenue of all white liquor companies in 2024 exceeded 440 billion yuan, primarily driven by growth from leading companies like Moutai [4][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the white liquor industry has shifted, with Shanxi Fenjiu rising to the third position among leading brands, indicating a consolidation of market power among top players [2][8]. - Over the past five years, the rankings of the top ten white liquor companies have changed significantly, with new entrants and established brands experiencing shifts in their market positions [10][11]. - The performance of mid-sized and smaller liquor companies has generally been poor, with some facing delisting risks [2][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with expectations of continued low performance in the second quarter of 2025 [2][17]. - The core issue facing the industry is weak consumer demand, with a need for companies to connect with younger consumers and explore new market segments [18].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declining revenues and profits, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][8]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of April 29, nearly all listed white liquor companies reported a slowdown in performance for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, with six companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, nearly half of the white liquor companies reported negative performance, with some experiencing revenue declines of 20% to 30% [1][8]. - The total revenue of all white liquor companies in 2024 exceeded 440 billion yuan, primarily driven by growth from leading companies like Moutai [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the white liquor industry has shifted, with Shanxi Fenjiu rising to the third position among leading brands, indicating a consolidation of the market among top players [2][5]. - The top ten white liquor companies have seen significant changes in rankings over the past five years, with new entrants and established brands experiencing shifts in their market positions [6][7]. - The performance of mid-sized and smaller liquor companies has generally been poor, with some facing delisting risks due to continued underperformance [2][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with expectations of continued low performance in the second quarter of 2025 [2][13]. - The industry faces challenges in consumer demand, particularly in attracting younger consumers, which is crucial for future growth [12][13]. - Despite some companies maintaining double-digit growth, the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit of approximately 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase, demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic challenges and industry adjustments [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company maintained a strong financial position with total assets of 68.335 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, and net assets of 47.389 billion yuan, up 14.5% [3]. - Cash reserves reached 33.578 billion yuan, an increase of 8.14%, while operating cash flow net amount rose by 80.1% to 19.182 billion yuan [3]. - The debt-to-asset ratio remained stable at a low level of 30%, indicating strong risk resistance and operational health [3]. Dividend Policy - Luzhou Laojiao plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.759 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [4]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, focusing on high-quality development and maintaining brand stability [4]. Market Strategy - The company’s high-end brand strategy has been crucial for countering market risks and achieving growth despite increased competition [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated approximately 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.77% increase, contributing nearly 90% of total revenue [6]. - Other liquor products achieved revenue of 3.467 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.75% [7]. Brand Development - The company is enhancing its brand presence through cultural events and marketing strategies aimed at younger consumers, particularly targeting the Z generation [8]. - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on low-alcohol products and fruit wines to meet diverse consumer demands, showcasing a long-term potential for brand rejuvenation [8]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its channel structure, with traditional and emerging channels both showing revenue growth, and a gross margin exceeding 80% [12]. - Luzhou Laojiao's international revenue grew by 5.07%, supported by global marketing initiatives [12]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation across various operational aspects, enhancing market control and ensuring price stability [14]. Future Plans - For 2025, Luzhou Laojiao aims to further its digital initiatives, focusing on market expansion, channel development, and consumer engagement strategies [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is actively adjusting its distribution channels and accelerating digital transformation to support long-term growth [6] Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.77% and 7.15% [6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to the increase in mid-to-low-end product sales [6] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, with a reduction of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 31.914 billion yuan, 33.924 billion yuan, and 36.537 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.804 billion yuan, 14.813 billion yuan, and 16.154 billion yuan for the same years [9][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 9.38 yuan, 10.06 yuan, and 10.97 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 155.36 CNY, maintaining the rating [5][11]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through a significant cash dividend plan [2][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 31.196 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.473 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 87.58 billion CNY over the year, representing approximately 65% of the net profit for 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 30.233 billion CNY in 2023 to 41.967 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.8% [4]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 87.5% to 88.6% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to range from 42.8% to 44.9% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 12.80 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.9 for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.8 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 28, 2025, was 125.6 CNY, with a 52-week high of 186.79 CNY and a low of 97.77 CNY [5]. - The company has experienced a relative performance decline of 28.69% over the past 12 months [6].