Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment and transformation in the consumer market, with a decline in production among large-scale enterprises in 2024, yet leading companies are still seeing growth in revenue and profit, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging its dual-brand matrix of "Guojiao" (over 20 billion) and "Luzhou Laojiao" (over 10 billion) to navigate market fluctuations [1] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend rates over the next 5-10 years, while focusing on strategies such as "lower alcohol content, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digitalization" [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - The "Guojiao" brand exceeded 20 billion, while "Luzhou Laojiao" surpassed 10 billion, supported by a strategy of "dual brands, three product lines, and major single products" [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the "lower alcohol content" innovation as a strategic priority, with plans to launch a 28-degree product and consider even lower alcohol content options [1] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has gained market acceptance, with sales accounting for approximately 50% and nearing 10 billion in scale [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is expanding into lower-tier markets and has doubled its online network system in the first four months, with expectations to further expand market reach over the next five years [1] Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes a strategy of "opening bottles as king," aiming to deepen its presence in grassroots markets and optimize its channel system to enhance its ability to respond to market changes [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to a "culture + technology" strategy, focusing on innovation and quality to write a new chapter in the development of the liquor industry [1]

Market Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, transitioning from "volume competition" to "value creation" [1] - In 2024, the total production of large-scale enterprises was 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a 7.2% decline in Q1 [1] - Despite the production decline, industry revenue and profit grew by 5.3% and 7.8% respectively in 2024, indicating a shift towards "quality improvement" and "brand influence" [1] Industry Trends - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top six liquor companies accounting for 86% of total industry profits in 2024, up over 30 percentage points from ten years ago [1] - The brand "Guojiao 1573" is now one of the top three high-end liquor brands in China, with a leading national market presence [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are shifting from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with younger demographics (post-85s and post-90s) favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [3] - Consumption scenarios are diversifying, with stable growth in traditional events and emerging trends in cultural experiences and technology integration [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Instant retail transactions for liquor grew over 65% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a shift towards immediate consumption [4] - The company is enhancing its marketing focus from "channel pressure" to "precise reach" and "user operation" [4] Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion RMB in 2024, a 482.73% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.27% [6] - Net profit reached 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, a 1431.18% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.37% [6] Strategic Advantages - The company has implemented a comprehensive strategy since the 13th Five-Year Plan, focusing on governance, market share, brand culture, quality, and talent [5] - The company has established a quality traceability system across the entire production chain, enhancing product quality and efficiency [8] Innovation and Development - The company is actively developing lower-alcohol products, with a focus on 38-degree and 28-degree variants, responding to market demand [11] - The company has built an ecological park with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-quality solid-state liquor [8] Social Responsibility - From 2015 to 2024, the company invested approximately 274 million RMB in public welfare, receiving multiple awards for its contributions [10] - The cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing reached 52.059 billion RMB, with a dividend rate of 61.58%, ranking among the top in A-share companies [10]

Group 1 - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is engaged in the production and sales of liquor, primarily focusing on high-end liquor products such as "Guojiao 1573" and "Luzhou Laojiao" [5][10] - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% from the previous year [5][9] - The company has a registered capital of 1.471 billion yuan and operates in the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry [4][5] Group 2 - The company issued bonds "19 Laojiao 01" and "20 Laojiao 01" with a total fundraising of 4 billion yuan, which has been used for approved projects without any misappropriation [10][11] - The bond "20 Laojiao 01" has a total issuance scale of 1.5 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 3.50% [2][3] - The company maintains a good credit status with a total credit line of 41.51 billion yuan from various banks, of which 18.60 billion yuan has been utilized [20][21] Group 3 - The company has implemented a series of measures to ensure timely and full repayment of bond principal and interest, including establishing a special account for bond funds [12][13] - The company has not set up any credit enhancement mechanisms for the bonds, but has established effective debt repayment measures [12][22] - The company has conducted regular disclosures and held bondholder meetings, although some meetings did not reach the required quorum for decision-making [16][22]

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market is experiencing price fluctuations, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing price declines, prompting industry discussions on strategies to manage these changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - High-end liquor prices have dropped since May 30, with Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 seeing declines of over 20 yuan per bottle [2]. - The current market environment suggests that achieving both volume and price increases is challenging, leading to a situation where companies may need to sacrifice one for the other [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Strategies - Liquor companies are focusing on precise and refined management of their distribution channels to stabilize prices [2][3]. - Wuliangye's management emphasizes the need for systematic marketing policies to expand market share across various segments [2][3]. Group 3: Channel Management - Wuliangye is implementing refined management strategies for distributors, including optimizing incentive policies and enforcing contract compliance [3]. - The company plans to reduce planned volumes for underperforming distributors and reallocate distribution areas to maintain price stability [3]. Group 4: Market Expansion - Companies are targeting younger consumers by introducing lower-alcohol products, with Wuliangye planning to launch a 29-degree version of its liquor [4][5]. - The younger demographic shows a preference for personalized and lower-alcohol beverages, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [5]. Group 5: E-commerce and Retail Trends - Instant retail is becoming a significant avenue for growth, with online sales channels rapidly evolving to meet consumer demands for convenience [5]. - Live-streaming sales on platforms like Douyin are increasingly important for liquor marketing, with top influencers achieving significant sales figures [5]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Despite current challenges, industry executives maintain confidence in the long-term growth of the liquor market, viewing it as a cyclical but upward trend [6].

泸州老窖股份有限公司 （住所：四川省泸州市国窖广场） 泸州老窖股份有限公司公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称《管理办法》）、 《公司债券受托管理人执业行为准则》（以下简称《执业行为准则》）、证券交 易所公司债券上市规则（以下简称"上市规则"）或证券交易所公司债券挂牌转 让规则（以下简称"挂牌转让规则"）、发行人与中国国际金融股份有限公司（以 下简称"中金公司"或"受托管理人"）签订的债券受托管理协议（以下简称"受 托管理协议"）及其它相关信息披露文件以及泸州老窖股份有限公司（以下简称 "发行人"或"公司"）出具的相关说明文件和提供的相关资料等，由受托管理 人中金公司编制。中金公司编制本报告的内容及信息均来源于泸州老窖股份有限 公司提供的资料或说明。 （住所：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 1 号国贸大厦 2 座 27 层及 28 层） 二〇二五年六月 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相关 事宜作出独立判断，而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为中金公司所作的承诺 或声明。在任何情况下，未经中金公司书面 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in the price of Feitian Moutai indicates a return to normalcy in the liquor market after the 618 shopping festival [1] - The departure of Hou Xiaohai marks a new era for China Resources Beer, signaling the onset of a new cycle in the beer industry [1][4] Company Developments - Jiu Gui Jiu plans to launch low-alcohol products as part of its "two lows and one small" strategy, with products at 33°, 28°, 21°, and 18° degrees set to be introduced by the end of July [1] - Luzhou Laojiao has successfully developed a 28° version of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, which is expected to be launched soon, alongside research into even lower alcohol content products [1][3] - Wuliangye is set to introduce a 29° product named "Wuliangye·Yijianqingxin" in the second half of the year [2] Financial Highlights - Luzhou Laojiao's shareholders approved a three-year cash dividend plan, with rates increasing to 75% by 2026, ensuring annual dividends of at least 8.5 billion yuan [3] - The dividend rates for major liquor companies, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe, are expected to rise above 70% [3] Industry Trends - The liquor export market is expanding, with a total export value of 830 million USD from January to May 2025, marking an 8.6% increase year-on-year [7] - Conversely, the import market is declining, with a total import value of 1.37 billion USD, down 14.3% year-on-year [7] - The Jiangsu liquor market is experiencing a slight decline in sales, with overall sales close to 62 billion yuan [9] Strategic Collaborations - Diageo has formed a strategic partnership with JD.com, focusing on supply chain optimization and digital marketing [12] Regulatory Actions - The government of Renhuai City is taking measures to combat counterfeit liquor production following a report on fraudulent practices in the production of "vintage liquor" [10]

食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于 其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。(联接A 类：013125；联接C类：013126)。 近期，五粮液（000858）、泸州老窖（000568）、酒鬼酒（000799）召开股东大会。五粮液来看，上半 年宴席市场规模和开瓶率实现良好增长，八代五粮液动态适应市场节奏，对20个重点城市实现终端直 配，提升终端管控能力；泸州老窖来看，公司加大下沉市场开拓，加速中低度酒和创新酒饮的开发，目 前28度国窖1573已经研发成功，将适时投放市场，16度、6度等更低度数的白酒产品也在同步开发中； 酒鬼酒来看，公司以差异化的产品满足多元化市场的需求，已分步启动低端、低度、小酒"两低一小"的 产品战略，重点凸显性价比。 估值端看，白酒板块整体估值偏低，酒企回购或增持动作较多，分红力度持续提升，后续关注内需政策 发布及白酒作为低配板块有望迎来资金流入。大众品板块方面，在外卖爆发利好与旺季 ...

Group 1 - Wuliangye announced the launch of a new 29-degree product "Yijian Qingshin" in September, replicating a classic formula from the last century while incorporating modern taste optimizations [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is following suit with its 38-degree Guojiao 1573, which already accounts for half of its product line, and is in the final stages of developing a lower 28-degree product [1] - Yanghe plans to focus on launching fruit-flavored liquor and a 33.8-degree micro-molecule series in the third quarter, targeting "light social" scenarios [1] Group 2 - The rise of low-alcohol beverages is driven by the younger consumer demographic, with Meituan's flash purchase data showing a tenfold increase in low-alcohol liquor sales during this year's 618 shopping festival, with the 18-35 age group contributing over 60% of sales [1] - The industry faces challenges in maintaining flavor integrity while reducing alcohol content, with technical innovations being crucial for success [1] - Traditional liquor companies are leveraging their resources and blending techniques to create a competitive edge, as over 50 low-alcohol brands have exited the market due to quality control issues [1] Group 3 - There is a regional disparity in the acceptance of low-alcohol beverages, with southern regions seeing over 65% market share, while northern markets still favor high-alcohol options [2] - Industry experts express concerns that excessive adaptation to younger tastes may lead to competition with fruit wines and foreign liquors, potentially undermining traditional white liquor [3] - Despite high-end liquor inventory turnover days reaching 867, Wuliangye's management believes that this transformation is essential for integrating white liquor into the lifestyle of younger consumers [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Luzhou Laojiao is rationally responding to the pains of transformation while actively seizing opportunities. The company is expected to navigate the current industry cycle effectively, with a focus on digital marketing and terminal penetration strategies [7][8] - The report predicts a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with adjusted forecasts for net profit at 12.35 billion, 12.88 billion, and 14.11 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% for 2025 [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be 29.26 billion in 2025, down 6.20% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 12.35 billion, a decrease of 8.34% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 8.39 for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 13.45 [1] - The company maintains a strong dividend yield, which supports the "Buy" rating despite the anticipated decline in profits [7] Market and Strategic Insights - The report discusses the changing dynamics in the liquor industry, highlighting a shift from public to private consumption, which may lead to transitional pains for the company [7] - Luzhou Laojiao aims to leverage six key advantages to capture market opportunities, including strategic, quality, cultural, innovation, layout, and responsibility advantages [7] - The company plans to expand its market presence significantly, increasing the number of terminals from 500,000 to 4 million over the next five years [7] Financial Health Indicators - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected operating cash flow of 12.24 billion for 2025 and a projected total asset value of 70.15 billion [8] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 30.48% in 2024 to 26.17% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1][3]. Core Views - The company is actively embracing new consumption trends in the industry, with a focus on product innovation and channel transformation [1][6]. - The management has a clear understanding of the industry landscape and is strategically planning to adapt to changes, particularly in consumer preferences towards lower-alcohol products [1][6]. - The company aims to improve inventory control and maintain pricing stability for its Guojiao series products, leveraging digital marketing for channel expansion [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 9.47, 10.00, and 10.83, respectively, with a corresponding PE of 12X for 2025 [1][3]. - Total revenue is expected to grow from 30,233 million in 2023 to 35,708 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][12]. - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from 13,246 million in 2023 to 15,935 million in 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory [7][12]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets, aiming to reach four million terminals in the next five years [1][6]. - Digital marketing initiatives are being implemented to enhance direct channel capabilities and meet emerging consumer demands [1][6]. - The company is committed to developing low-alcohol products, with successful innovations like the 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and ongoing research for other low-alcohol variants [1][6]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 26.9% for the trailing twelve months, indicating strong profitability [3][13]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 34.4% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2027, reflecting improved financial stability [13]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of approximately 87.4% to 88.3% over the forecast period, showcasing its pricing power [13].