Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the transportation and logistics industry, focusing on cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and smart transformation in the sector [2][4][10]. Group 1: Modern Transportation System - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to improve the modern comprehensive transportation system by enhancing cross-regional coordination and multi-modal integration, which will transform China's transportation landscape from a single-mode to a comprehensive network [2]. - The national comprehensive transportation network has established a backbone layout exceeding 260,000 kilometers, connecting over 80% of counties and serving approximately 90% of the country's economic and population total [2]. Group 2: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - A core task during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to lower logistics costs, with an estimated reduction of about 280 billion yuan in transportation costs by 2024 [4]. - The optimization of transportation structure, including the promotion of "road-to-rail" and "road-to-water" initiatives, is expected to significantly reduce logistics costs, as increasing railway freight turnover by 1% can lower overall logistics costs by 0.1% to 0.2% [4]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The integration of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data into transportation and logistics is anticipated to reshape the industry, enhancing operational efficiency and enabling innovations like automated driving and smart logistics [7][8]. - Digital transformation of traditional transportation infrastructure will continue, with smart roads, ports, and hubs being developed to optimize resource allocation and improve operational efficiency [8]. Group 4: Market Optimization and Competition - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to eliminate barriers to the establishment of a unified national market and address "involution" in competition, promoting a healthy market order with fair pricing [9]. - The logistics industry is expected to shift from price competition to a comprehensive competition model focusing on technology, efficiency, service, and cost control, requiring logistics companies to evolve from traditional service providers to integrated supply chain solution providers [10][11]. Group 5: Opportunities in the Industry - The article identifies several opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan," including the potential for leading express delivery companies to regain profitability and valuation, and the growth of platform companies leveraging digital technology for cost reduction in road freight [12]. - Companies that enhance the safety of international and domestic supply chains and those involved in the development of automated driving technologies are also expected to thrive [12].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需与政策将重新主导 PMI 9 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 08 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 迈向"十五五"：迎接新政策风格 | 2025-09-28 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Strategic Restructuring - Pingmei Shenma and Shenneng Group announced plans for strategic restructuring by the controlling shareholders, which will not significantly impact their operations [1][1] - The restructuring will not change the controlling shareholders or the actual controllers of either company [1][1] Group 2: Capital Increase - Ganfeng Lithium plans to introduce investors for a capital increase of up to 2.5 billion yuan for its subsidiary, Ganfeng Lithium Technology [2] - The capital increase will be priced at 3 yuan per 1 yuan of registered capital, and the company will waive its preferential subscription rights [2] Group 3: Stock Trading Suspension - Upwei New Materials' stock has been suspended for verification due to multiple instances of abnormal trading fluctuations [3] - The company will conduct an investigation into the trading volatility and will resume trading after the verification process [3] Group 4: Earnings Forecast - Jihong Co. expects a net profit of 209 million to 222 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a growth of 55% to 65% year-on-year [4] - The growth is attributed to significant increases in revenue and profit from cross-border social e-commerce and improved operational efficiency in the packaging business [4] Group 5: Fundraising and Projects - Hanyu Pharmaceutical plans to raise up to 968 million yuan through a private placement for various projects including peptide drug production and R&D upgrades [5] - Water Development Gas received acceptance for its securities issuance application from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [6] Group 6: Important Transactions - Tianqi Model's controlling shareholders signed a share transfer agreement to transfer 162 million shares, which will change the controlling shareholder to Jianfa Wanyu [7] - The transaction is expected to lead to a change in the actual controller to the Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [7] Group 7: Investment Projects - Dongfang Yuhong signed an investment agreement to invest 600 million yuan in a new materials industry chain project in Nanning, Guangxi [9] - The project includes mining, processing, and product development [9] - Changqing Group plans to invest 571 million yuan in the second phase of its cogeneration project in Maoming [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.2, with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the real - estate sales high - frequency index shows a year - on - year decline of 6.4 points, with the decline rate remaining unchanged; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 4.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the export high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the consumption high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 2.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1%, and the PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [1][9]. - The inventory high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the transportation high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the financing high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 29.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points (previous value: 126.8 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8%, up from the previous value of 62.2%; the polyester operating rate is 86.8%, down from the previous value of 86.9%; the semi - tire operating rate is 74.5%, down from the previous value of 75.9%; the full - tire operating rate is 61.1%, down from the previous value of 65.0%; the PTA operating rate is 79.7%, down from the previous value of 80.8%; the PX operating rate is 82.4%, the same as the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 47.5 tons, down from the previous value of 49.4 tons [11][16]. 3. Real - Estate Sales: Property Transactions Continue to Rebound - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 24.4 square meters, up from the previous value of 21.0 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 9.0%, up from the previous value of 7.8% [28]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The operating rate of asphalt plants is 33.1%, up from the previous value of 28.8% [38]. 5. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1232 points, down from the previous value of 1261 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.9 points, down from the previous value of 303.8 points [45]. 6. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Sales Continue to Rebound - Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 66,611 units, up from the previous value of 58,207 units; wholesale sales are 77,867 units, up from the previous value of 57,826 units; the average daily box office is 23,068 yuan, up from the previous value of 14,066 yuan [59]. 7. CPI: Wholesale Prices of Pork and White - Feathered Chicken Decline Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.5 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 20.7 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.4 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - feathered chicken is 17.2 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 17.4 yuan/kg [65]. 8. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continues to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 yuan/ton, up from the previous value of 649 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 72 US dollars/barrel, up from the previous value of 69 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9672 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 9821 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2596 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 2647 US dollars/ton [68]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Volume Rebounds - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 3902 person - times, up from the previous value of 3900 person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, the same as the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,562, up from the previous value of 14,428 [82]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 18.1 tons, up from the previous value of 15.5 tons; the soda ash inventory is 179.0 tons, down from the previous value of 187.4 tons [90]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bond and Credit Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local government bonds is 2425 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 2929 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 134 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 549 billion yuan; the 6M state - owned stock bill transfer discount rate is 0.6%, down from the previous value of 0.74%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 1.1%, down from the previous value of - 0.91% [100].

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, marks a new phase in its development, significantly reducing operational costs for businesses and promoting trade liberalization, making it a crucial gateway for China's new era of opening up [1][2][5]. Economic Impact - The implementation of "zero tariffs" will greatly optimize the cost of goods circulation, leading to substantial growth in both import and export trades [4]. - The relaxation of visa policies will enhance the flow of people and consumption, boosting local tourism and shopping through increased duty-free shopping limits [4][8]. - The advantages of "zero tariffs" and tax exemptions for value-added processing will foster the development of export-oriented manufacturing [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The anticipated closure has already triggered a surge in related stocks, with the Hainan Free Trade Zone sector rising over 9% in a single day [3]. - Key sectors to watch for investment include duty-free retail, aviation logistics, financial services, and emerging industries such as technology and pharmaceuticals [6][7][8]. - Short-term opportunities are expected in logistics and retail, while long-term prospects may arise from innovations in finance and high-tech industries due to favorable tax and regulatory conditions [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from May 26th to May 30th, 2025, showing that the overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in various sub - indicators such as production, demand, prices, and financing [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.9 points (previous value: 125.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate rebounds. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.8% (previous value: 6.3%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Polyester Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.4 (previous value: 125.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 65.4% (previous value: 66.0%), and the polyester operating rate is 90.9% (previous value: 93.3%) [1][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The real estate sales high - frequency index is 44.8 (previous value: 44.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6 points (previous value: 6.6 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 31.0 million square meters (previous value: 27.7 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 10.1% (previous value: 1.2%) [1][24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Continues to Decline - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.9 (previous value: 117.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 points (previous value: 0.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 27.7% (previous value: 30.8%) [1][40]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 144.4 (previous value: 144.5), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The CCFI index is 1118 points (previous value: 1107 points), and the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 108 points (previous value: 104 points) [1][42]. 3.6 Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturer Retail Sales Rebound - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.4), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Passenger car manufacturer retail sales are 60,823 units (previous value: 51,175 units), and wholesale sales are 75,923 units (previous value: 56,286 units) [1][54]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg) [1][63]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continue to Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.2% (previous value: - 0.3%). The settlement price of rebar futures is 3,237 yuan/ton (previous value: 3,299 yuan/ton) [1][69]. 3.9 Transportation: Both Passenger Transport and Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.6 (previous value: 127.4), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 7.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate increases. The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 38.53 million person - times (previous value: 38.66 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 12,682 flights (previous value: 12,744 flights) [2][81]. 3.10 Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.1 (previous value: 160.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.9 points (previous value: 9.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The soda ash inventory is 161.3 million tons (previous value: 167.7 million tons) [2][86]. 3.11 Financing: 6M National - Share Banker's Acceptance Bill Rediscount Rate Rebounds - The financing high - frequency index is 227.9 (previous value: 227.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 29.1 points (previous value: 29.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The 6M national - share banker's acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.10% (previous value: 1.08%) [2][98].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 策略专题报告 再论红利的必要性和终点 市场周观察 05 月第 2 期 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 红利持续缩圈，TOP4 均为银行。我们梳理目前的红利方向：（1）考虑 业绩波动对于分红的影响，连续多个季度 EPS 保持稳定，或者存在向上 的预期；（2）考虑股价对于股息率的影响，筛选＞2%的方向，相对 10Y 国债收益率仍具有绝对性价比。目前筛选的方向中：TOP4 均为银行的二 级行业，国有大型银行、农商行、城商行、股份制银行；以及消费白马， 厨卫电器、白酒、白色家电；此外，交运物流保持在 3%左右的股息；而 此前明显强势的煤炭已经不在此列。 高实际利率偏好于稳定性资产。（1）传统观点认为红利占优在于无风险 利率的下行，因此拥有类债属性的红利风格凭借更高的股息率走强。但 从历史规律看，2020 年以前，国内无风险利率更多与中证红利/万得全 A 的收益同向变动；但在 2022 年后，红利股走强的逻辑并不能够用无风险 利率波动简单解释，红利风格的定价模式似乎出现变化。（2）如果我们 考虑实际利率对于资产价格的影响，我们引入了无风险利率-PPI 来指代 实 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of various aspects of the economy from April 19th to April 25th, 2025. The overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing [10][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.2 points (previous value: 125.1 points), with a year - on - year growth of 3.8% (previous value: 3.7%), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, and the signal factor has dropped to 5.5% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][10]. 2. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops Slightly - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.0, with a year - on - year growth of 3.8% (previous value: 3.7%). The electric furnace operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.7%); the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (previous value: 91.0%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.1% (previous value: 78.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 62.5% (previous value: 65.4%); the PTA operating rate is 80.0% (previous value: 76.7%); the PX operating rate is 77.4% (previous value: 78.2%) [10][12][17]. 3. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remain Negative Year - on - Year - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 45.4, with a year - on - year decline of 13.2% (previous value: 13.5%). The commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities has increased to 22.0 million square meters, and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities has dropped to 4.3% [10][12][31]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Slightly - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 116.6, with a year - on - year decline of 0.8% (previous value: 1.5%). The operating rate of petroleum installations is 30.7% (previous value: 28.7%) [10][12][39]. 5. Exports: Export Commodity Prices Rise Slightly - The high - frequency index of exports is 144.9, with a year - on - year growth of 6.1% (previous value: 6.7%). The CCFI index has increased to 1122 points, and the RJ/CRB commodity price index has increased to 296.5 points [1][10][49]. 6. Consumption: Movie Box Office Remains Below the Same Period in Previous Years - The high - frequency index of consumption is 119.4, with a year - on - year growth of 0.9% (previous value: 0.7%). The average daily movie box office has increased to 35.62 million yuan, and the average daily retail sales of passenger car manufacturers on April 25th are 54,522 vehicles [2][10][60]. 7. CPI: Pork Prices Rise Slightly - The predicted month - on - month CPI is 0.1% (previous value: - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.7 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.3 yuan/kg) [2][10][68]. 8. PPI: Non - Ferrous Metal Prices Rise - The predicted month - on - month PPI is - 0.3% (previous value: - 0.3%). The ex - works price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi origin) is 658 yuan/ton (previous value: 664 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,371 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9,123 US dollars/ton) [2][10][76]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rises, Freight Remains Flat - The high - frequency index of transportation is 126.5, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9% (previous value: 5.5%). The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities has increased to 39.54 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index remains flat at 1050 points, and the number of domestic flights has increased to 12,780 [2][11][87]. 10. Inventory: Steel Stocks Continue to Decline - The high - frequency index of inventory is 159.3, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% (previous value: 6.4%). The total inventory of soda ash has dropped to 1.691 million tons [2][11][95]. 11. Financing: Net Financing of Government Bonds Rises - The high - frequency index of financing is 224.7, with a year - on - year growth of 14.7% (previous value: 14.1%). The cumulative net financing of local bonds has increased to 162.5 billion yuan, the cumulative net financing of credit bonds has increased to 115.9 billion yuan, and the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate has dropped to 1.07% [3][11][108].