Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declining revenues and profits, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][8]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of April 29, nearly all listed white liquor companies reported a slowdown in performance for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, with six companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, nearly half of the white liquor companies reported negative performance, with some experiencing revenue declines of 20% to 30% [1][8]. - The total revenue of all white liquor companies in 2024 exceeded 440 billion yuan, primarily driven by growth from leading companies like Moutai [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the white liquor industry has shifted, with Shanxi Fenjiu rising to the third position among leading brands, indicating a consolidation of the market among top players [2][5]. - The top ten white liquor companies have seen significant changes in rankings over the past five years, with new entrants and established brands experiencing shifts in their market positions [6][7]. - The performance of mid-sized and smaller liquor companies has generally been poor, with some facing delisting risks due to continued underperformance [2][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with expectations of continued low performance in the second quarter of 2025 [2][13]. - The industry faces challenges in consumer demand, particularly in attracting younger consumers, which is crucial for future growth [12][13]. - Despite some companies maintaining double-digit growth, the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit of approximately 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase, demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic challenges and industry adjustments [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company maintained a strong financial position with total assets of 68.335 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, and net assets of 47.389 billion yuan, up 14.5% [3]. - Cash reserves reached 33.578 billion yuan, an increase of 8.14%, while operating cash flow net amount rose by 80.1% to 19.182 billion yuan [3]. - The debt-to-asset ratio remained stable at a low level of 30%, indicating strong risk resistance and operational health [3]. Dividend Policy - Luzhou Laojiao plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.759 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [4]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, focusing on high-quality development and maintaining brand stability [4]. Market Strategy - The company’s high-end brand strategy has been crucial for countering market risks and achieving growth despite increased competition [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated approximately 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.77% increase, contributing nearly 90% of total revenue [6]. - Other liquor products achieved revenue of 3.467 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.75% [7]. Brand Development - The company is enhancing its brand presence through cultural events and marketing strategies aimed at younger consumers, particularly targeting the Z generation [8]. - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on low-alcohol products and fruit wines to meet diverse consumer demands, showcasing a long-term potential for brand rejuvenation [8]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its channel structure, with traditional and emerging channels both showing revenue growth, and a gross margin exceeding 80% [12]. - Luzhou Laojiao's international revenue grew by 5.07%, supported by global marketing initiatives [12]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation across various operational aspects, enhancing market control and ensuring price stability [14]. Future Plans - For 2025, Luzhou Laojiao aims to further its digital initiatives, focusing on market expansion, channel development, and consumer engagement strategies [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is actively adjusting its distribution channels and accelerating digital transformation to support long-term growth [6] Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.77% and 7.15% [6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to the increase in mid-to-low-end product sales [6] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, with a reduction of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 31.914 billion yuan, 33.924 billion yuan, and 36.537 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.804 billion yuan, 14.813 billion yuan, and 16.154 billion yuan for the same years [9][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 9.38 yuan, 10.06 yuan, and 10.97 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 155.36 CNY, maintaining the rating [5][11]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through a significant cash dividend plan [2][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 31.196 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.473 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 87.58 billion CNY over the year, representing approximately 65% of the net profit for 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 30.233 billion CNY in 2023 to 41.967 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.8% [4]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 87.5% to 88.6% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to range from 42.8% to 44.9% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 12.80 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.9 for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.8 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 28, 2025, was 125.6 CNY, with a 52-week high of 186.79 CNY and a low of 97.77 CNY [5]. - The company has experienced a relative performance decline of 28.69% over the past 12 months [6].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has maintained steady growth despite the deep adjustment in the liquor industry, as evidenced by significant increases in key financial metrics and a strong outlook for future performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 31.196 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, continuing growth into the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The company reported a gross margin of 87.54% and a net margin of 43.27% for 2024, ranking second among publicly listed liquor companies after Kweichow Moutai [3]. - Contract liabilities (advance payments) reached 3.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%, with a further 21% growth in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding broker expectations [3][4]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The cash collection ratio reached 128.34%, with net cash inflow from operating activities of 19.182 billion yuan, an 80% year-on-year increase, and total cash on hand of 33.578 billion yuan [4]. - The board announced a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), leading to a total cash dividend of 8.758 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio increased to 65% [4][5]. - The company plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 75% by 2026, ensuring a minimum annual cash dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao's dual-brand strategy includes Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao, with Guojiao 1573 being a key high-end product competing with Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][7]. - The company reported that Guojiao brand sales exceeded 20 billion yuan, while Luzhou Laojiao brand sales surpassed 10 billion yuan, indicating expanded market coverage and penetration [5]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and channel development, emphasizing consumer engagement through bottle scanning and targeting lower-tier markets for growth [7][8]. Industry Context - The liquor market is characterized by a "one super, two strong" structure, with Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao being the only three companies with high-end market access [8]. - The high-end liquor market is projected to reach 166.4 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2021 to 2026, indicating a trend towards concentration among leading brands [9]. - Luzhou Laojiao's unique resources, such as the "1573 National Treasure Cellar Group," provide a competitive edge in producing high-quality liquor, ensuring the scarcity of its flagship product [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in 2024, with a focus on high-end product upgrades and digital marketing strategies to enhance brand influence and consumer engagement [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.89 billion, a decline of 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion, up 0.4% year-on-year [1]. Market and Product Development - The market size is steadily progressing, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 2.8% to 27.59 billion and sales volume rising by 14.4% to 43,000 tons in 2024 [1]. - The company’s brand, Guojiao, remains in the 20 billion category, while Luzhou Laojiao has surpassed the 10 billion mark [1]. - The company is transitioning to a digital marketing strategy, launching a five-code product to reshape consumer channels and promote sales through consumer engagement [1]. Brand Strategy and Cultural Engagement - The company is enhancing brand influence through various cultural activities centered around the theme "700 Years of Chinese Strong Aroma," leveraging major events like the Olympics and the 60th anniversary of Sino-French diplomatic relations [2]. - In 2024, Guojiao 1573 was listed among the top 10 most valuable Chinese brands by Hurun [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is adopting a pragmatic approach to growth, focusing on high-quality development and stabilizing channel dynamics and pricing [2]. - The 2025 operational goal is to achieve steady revenue growth, with a projected EPS of 9.36, 10.34, and 11.21 for 2025-2027 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.19% and 1.71% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with year-on-year decreases of 16.86% and 29.86% respectively [3]. - The company adheres to a "dual brand, three product lines, and major products" strategy, with a focus on high-end liquor. The revenue from liquor operations reached 31.053 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 87.62%, showing a slight decline [4]. - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring that cash dividends will account for at least 65% of net profit for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, with a minimum total of 8.5 billion yuan in cash dividends each year [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 31.883 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.753 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 2.2% [9][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 87.54%, with a slight decline expected in the following years [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The high-end liquor segment generated 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, while other liquor products contributed 3.467 billion yuan. The high-end segment saw a volume increase of 14.39% but a price decrease of 10.15% [4]. - The company’s revenue from traditional and emerging channels was 29.573 billion yuan and 1.479 billion yuan respectively, showing growth in both areas [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 6.8 billion yuan for 2024, alongside a previously implemented 2 billion yuan interim dividend, meeting the 65% payout ratio requirement [8]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 4.75%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][8].

在白酒行业竞争形势愈发复杂的背景下，泸州老窖仍然交出稳健的业绩答卷。 2024年，泸州老窖实现营收311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%；实现净利润134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%，各项 业绩指标稳健增长。 取得优异成绩的同时，泸州老窖也为投资者带来了丰厚的回报。 本次年报披露最新的利润分配预案，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利45.92元（含税）。叠加2024年中 期分红，去年全年现金分红总金额将超过87亿元。 $$\bigcup\mathrm{~I~}_{\mathrm{~}}$$ 白酒行业存量竞争，消费多元、强分化特点显著。巩固存量、拦截流量、拓展增量，被认为是企业在周 期调整中突围的重要路径。 泸州老窖已通过"双品牌、三品系、大单品"构建起覆盖全价格带的产品矩阵。 "金字塔形"的产品结构不仅扩大了企业的目标消费群体，也使其面对需求分化的市场时，应变更为灵活 自如，整体抗风险能力得到增强。 具体来看，国窖品牌稳居200亿阵营并向更高目标发起冲刺。国窖1573已跻身中国三大高端白酒行列，持 续打造稀缺性产品、强化品牌势能，连接高净值人群。 泸州老窖品牌突破百亿体量，在中低端价位凭借头曲、黑盖等产品，充分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 311.96 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 87.54% and 43.19%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a total cash dividend of 87.58 billion yuan in 2024 [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 68.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a net profit of 18.80 billion yuan in Q4 2024, down 29.86% year-on-year [4] - The sales revenue for 2024 is expected to be 400.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.74% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is projected to be 275.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company anticipates a total of 315.76 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, with a growth rate of 1.22% [9][11] Profitability Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 134.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 1.71% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The company aims for steady growth in revenue for 2025, with projected revenues of 31.576 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.22% [9] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a target of at least 65% of net profit distributed as dividends [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross profit margin of 87.54% and a net profit margin of 43.19%, with slight declines from the previous year [3] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total operating revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a significant increase in cash receipts, totaling 40.036 billion yuan for the year, up 26.74% year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company expects revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor to reach 27.585 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company reported a total of 1,701 domestic distributors and 85 overseas distributors by the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease in numbers [5] Earnings Forecast - The company projects net profit for 2025 to be 13.585 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.83% [11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]