◼ 工业金属"内卷"的本质是资源端的匮乏与冶炼端的过剩背景下的结构性失衡。1）铜冶炼： 行业产能过剩，2018-2024 年我国铜冶炼行业产能利用率在 70-85%之间浮动，预计 2025 年铜 冶炼上市公司增加产量 85 万吨，yoy+8%，行业内卷或进一步加剧，截至 2025 年 7 月 TC/RC 分别为-43 美元/干吨、-4.3 美分/磅，行业持续亏损，我们预计后续"反内卷"政策下加工费有 望先恢复至近 10 年来最低水平——2024 年均值水平，TC 为 11.3 美元/干吨，RC 为 1.1 美分/ 磅。建议关注 2 类标的：①规模优势企业估值修复：江西铜业、铜陵有色、紫金矿业、中金岭 南等；②利润稳定高分红：西部矿业、江西铜业等。2）铅锌冶炼：我们认为铅锌行业的供给 侧改革已在路上，后续具备进一步细则落实的政策空间，我们预计 2025 年下半年锌精矿 TC 预计将进一步有序回升至 4000—4500 元/金属吨；进口铅精矿 TC 预计将回升至-20 美元/干 吨；建议关注成本优势豫光金铅、自给率较高，具备完整产业链驰宏锌锗。3）氧化铝：氧化 铝冶炼具备结构性产能优化空间，老旧产能的清退对行业盈 ...

铜陵有色 20250714 摘要 铜陵有色持股 70%的厄瓜多尔米拉多铜矿一期年产 12 万吨，二期预计 2025 年 7 月投产，满产后总计可达 26 万吨，该矿成本控制在全球前 30%，显著提升公司盈利能力。 公司拥有全球领先的 220 万吨粗炼产能，冶炼业务受益于长江沿岸的低 运费优势和副产品硫酸的销售，过去十几年净利率稳定在 2.2%- 2.5%，保守估计每吨可盈利 700 元人民币。 当前铜陵有色市值约 440 亿人民币，远低于按稳态利润 67 亿人民币和 行业平均 9 倍市盈率估算的 600 亿人民币市值，公司价值被市场低估。 尽管现货加工费为负，但铜陵有色 90%以上的长单采购比例和成本优势 有效降低了亏损风险，副产品如硫酸和贵金属也贡献了额外收益，保障 了整体盈利能力。 米拉多铜矿储量超过 600 万吨，品位 0.48%，实际出品品位更高达 0.6%，今年前五个月每吨净利润达 2.4 万元，是公司重要的利润增长点。 公司未来增长潜力在于米拉多铜矿的产能扩张和新增的 50 万吨粗炼产 能，但短期内需关注所得税确认可能导致利润减少的风险，这或将带来 买入机会。 米拉多铜矿与当地社区深度融合，收益至 ...

Group 1 - The "You Point, I Help" initiative by Anhui Province's market regulation department aims to enhance product quality through a structured support model involving enterprises, regulatory bodies, and technical experts [1][2] - As of June, the initiative has assisted 1,301 enterprises, resolving 401 quality issues and contributing approximately 340 million yuan to industrial output [1] - The initiative has led to significant technological breakthroughs, such as the development of new products with improved performance characteristics in the copper industry [1] Group 2 - The program allows industrial product manufacturers to submit quality assistance requests through both online and offline channels, ensuring that the most pressing quality issues are addressed [2] - Anhui Province has promoted mutual assistance among enterprises, with 62 industrial product manufacturers participating in this initiative to enhance quality through collaboration [2] - Future efforts will focus on increasing awareness and effectiveness of the "You Point, I Help" program and encouraging enterprise collaboration to further improve product quality [2]

Core Insights - Tongling, a city in Anhui province, is a significant hub for the copper industry in China, with its copper-based new materials industry generating over 70 billion yuan in output value last year [2] - The "Vibrant China Research Tour" highlighted the advancements in the copper industry, focusing on the full industrial chain from copper wire production to innovative applications [2][21] Company Highlights - Jingda Special Electromagnetic Wire Co., Ltd. is the leading company in China's special electromagnetic wire sector, holding a 35% share of the global market [4] - The company has transitioned from serving household appliances to becoming a champion in the special electromagnetic wire industry, with new products being developed for future industries like smart robotics [13] - Jin Guan Copper Industry, part of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, is the largest single copper smelting plant in China, actively implementing smart technology to enhance efficiency and promote green development [9][21] Industry Developments - The copper industry in Tongling is undergoing a transformation through innovation, focusing on sustainable practices and energy efficiency [20] - The production facilities are equipped with advanced technology, allowing for real-time monitoring and improvements in production processes [7][9] - The industry is increasingly connected to market demands and research, facilitating the integration of new production capabilities [7]

铜半年报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 2025 年 7 月 8 日 紧平衡结构延续，铜价趋于上行 核心观点及策略 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 30 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 要点 ⚫ IMF 下调 2025 年全球经济增长率预期至 2.8%，我们认 为贸易政策的不确定性将对全球供应链形成扰动，推 升美国经济的类滞涨风险，美联储或将谨慎抉择降息 时机；而欧元区显著摆脱高通胀和衰退压力，欧央行 或终止宽松周期。国内来看，中国经济面临稳增长和 外部承压的双重挑战， ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the conversion of the company's convertible bonds "铜陵定02" and the changes in the company's share capital structure, highlighting the bond's conversion period and price adjustments [1]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 12, 2023, to issue 2,140,476,679 shares and 3,336,626 convertible bonds to purchase related assets, with a fundraising limit of up to 2.146 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 21,460,000 convertible bonds were issued, with the bond code "124024" and the bond name "铜陵定02," which were registered on October 23, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at 3.38 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 3.30 yuan and then further reduced to 3.20 yuan due to annual equity distribution adjustments [1]. Group 3: Conversion and Share Capital Changes - As of the announcement, the remaining number of convertible bonds "铜陵定02" is 21,419,990, with the remaining amount reflecting the company's capital structure [1][2].

证券代码：000630 证券简称：铜陵有色 公告编号：2025－050 债券代码：124024 债券简称：铜陵定 02 铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 三、其他说明 公司回购股份的时间、回购股份的数量及集中竞价交易的委托时段等均 符合《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》及公司回购股份方案的相关规定。具体情况如下： 一、回购股份的基本情况 （一）铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 9 月 5 日、2024 年 9 月 20 日召开十届十三次董事会、2024 年第二次临时 股东大会，审议通过了《公司关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，基于对未来 发展的信心和对公司价值的认可，为维护广大投资者利益，增强投资者信心， 提升公司资本市场形象，在考虑经营情况、财务状况及未来发展战略的基础 上，同意公司以自有资金通过集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，本次回购的 股份将用于转换上市公司发行的可转换为股票的公司债券。本次回购资金总 额 ...

证券代码：000630 证券简称：铜陵有色 公告编号：2025－051 债券代码：124024 债券简称：铜陵定 02 铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第二季度可转换公司债券转股 情况的公告 一、可转债发行上市基本情况 （一）2023年7月12日，中国证券监督管理委员会核发了《关于同意铜陵 有色金属集团股份有限公司发行股份和可转换公司债券购买资产并募集配套 资金注册的批复》（证监许可〔2023〕1529号），同意公司向铜陵有色金属 集团控股有限公司发行2,140,476,679股股份、3,336,626张可转换公司债券 购买相关资产的注册申请；同意公司发行可转换公司债券募集配套资金不超 过214,600万元的注册申请。 1 （二）根据中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司出具的《证券初 始登记确认书》，本次向特定对象发行可转换公司债券募集配套资金合计发 行可转债21,460,000张，债券代码"124024"、债券简称"铜陵定02"，该 等可转债已于2023年10月23日在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司 完成了登记。 根据《铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司发行股份、可转换公司债券及支 付现 ...

直线飙升 国际铜价午后直线飙升，综合铜一度达到了9984美元的高位。国内沪铜也以上涨1.09%收盘。 | | 5日 ▼ 5分钟 | 15分钟 30分钟 60分钟 | 日线 | 周线 | 月线 | 更多周期 ▼ | 竟价・ 叠加・ | ■线 | STATE T | 简约 隐藏 ▶ 2 | 1 | LCPT 综合铜03 | D | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合铜03 分时 成交里 持仓里 | | | | | | | | 1.17% | | +92.50 9961.50 | | | 00 | | | | | 100 PA | | | | | 0.93% | | +0.94% | | | 00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.70% | ਸਿੰ | 9962.00 | 3 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 0.47% | 本 | 9960.50 | 2 | | | nonanto | | | | | | | | | 0.23% | ...

Group 1 - The copper concept sector increased by 1.95%, ranking 6th among concept sectors, with 58 stocks rising, including Northern Copper, which hit the daily limit, and Jin Chengxin, Jiangxi Copper, and Jintian Co., which rose by 6.70%, 6.12%, and 6.05% respectively [1][2] - The main capital inflow into the copper concept sector was 281 million yuan, with 35 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Northern Copper with a net inflow of 244 million yuan [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for Northern Copper, Xiyu Co., and ST Shengtun were 19.90%, 15.00%, and 11.19% respectively, indicating strong investor interest in these stocks [3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the copper concept sector included Northern Copper, which rose by 10.03%, and Xiyu Co., which increased by 5.95%, while the top losers included Huamao Co., which fell by 7.56% [3][6] - The trading volume and turnover rates for the leading stocks in the copper sector showed significant activity, with Northern Copper having a turnover rate of 6.86% and Xiyu Co. at 4.85% [3][4] - The overall performance of the copper concept sector reflects a positive sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the substantial net inflows and the number of stocks experiencing gains [2][5]