近期，美联储降息落地、全球央行持续增持黄金与市场配置需求升温，黄金资产的战略配置价值进一步凸显。 12月11日凌晨，美联储如期完成年内第三次降息，宣布下调联邦基金利率25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%，累计降息幅度达 75 个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻 发布会上释放偏鸽信号，明确 "加息并非基准预期"，同时宣布美元短期国债购买计划，向市场注入流动性。系列操作直接推动美元指数显著走弱，美债收 益率同步下行，显著降低黄金资产持有成本，为金价上行打开空间。 全球央行的持续增持则为黄金资产筑牢长期支撑。截至11月末，中国央行已连续13个月增持黄金。全球维度看，尽管央行购金规模未及过去三年峰值，但仍 远高于历史平均水平，波兰、巴西等国央行同步加仓，形成全球范围的购金热潮，进一步强化了黄金的储值属性。 市场端，在债券回报疲软、股市泡沫隐忧并存的背景下，投资者为寻求组合多元化配置，加大黄金资产布局。 黄金股票ETF基金紧密跟踪中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数从内地与香港市场中，选取50只市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶 炼、销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映内地与香港市场中黄金产业上市公司证券的 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月11日，铜陵有色在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司黄金、白银主要来自外购 铜精矿含金（银）、自产铜精矿含金（银）和自产金精矿含金等用于冶炼厂冶炼出的副产品，其中外购 铜精矿含金（银）用于冶炼部分占比较高。公司经营业绩情况受到铜精矿现货加工费市场价格波动等诸 多因素影响。未来，公司将继续聚焦主营业务，积极关注市场状况，努力做好生产经营管理工作。具体 业绩情况请关注公司定期报告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international copper prices have reached historical highs due to increasing concerns over global supply shortages, although a recent pullback was observed on December 9 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core factor driving the rise in copper prices is the sustained tightness in supply, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts and a significant number of cancellation requests for LME warehouse receipts [3]. - Demand for copper is steadily increasing in sectors such as electric vehicles, power grid construction, and AI data centers, contributing to a robust demand outlook [3]. Market Performance - Following a surge in copper prices since November 28, related A-share concept stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Shengton Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing cumulative increases of 17.36% and 13.96%, respectively [2]. - On December 9, copper futures on the LME fell over 1%, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping 1.46%, reflecting a broader market reaction [2]. Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for copper prices, with expectations of new highs by 2026 driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. interest rate cycle and geopolitical stability [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) anticipates a supply gap of 150,000 tons by 2026 due to limited new copper mining capacity, further supporting price increases [4]. Structural Supply Concerns - While short-term supply is expected to meet demand, there are concerns about potential structural shortages in the long term, driven by economic recovery and growth in emerging industries [5]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with indications of profit-taking among investors, suggesting a need for careful position management [5].

Group 1 - The copper metal concept sector experienced a decline of 2.58%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with companies like China Metallurgical Group and *ST Zhengping hitting the daily limit down [1] - Major companies in the copper sector that saw significant declines include Luoyang Molybdenum (-6.10%), China Metallurgical Group (-10.03%), and Jiangxi Copper (-6.06%) [2][3] - Conversely, a few companies in the sector saw gains, with ST HZ rising by 4.86%, Shengda Resources by 3.61%, and Zhongtung High-tech by 2.86% [1][5] Group 2 - The copper metal concept sector faced a net outflow of 5.915 billion yuan, with 67 stocks experiencing outflows, and 15 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum led the outflows with 771 million yuan, followed by China Metallurgical Group and Zijin Mining, each with 486 million yuan [2] - On the other hand, stocks like Zhongtung High-tech, Shengda Resources, and Zhangyuan Tungsten saw net inflows of 122 million yuan, 81.115 million yuan, and 31.799 million yuan respectively [5]

从资金流向上来看，当日安徽国企改革板块主力资金净流出9.31亿元，游资资金净流入8808.66万元，散户资金净流入8.43亿元。安徽国企改革板 块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | - 5.47 | -5.03% | 404.56万 | 22.28亿 | | 600585 | 海螺水泥 | 22.06 | -2.69% | 42.44万 | 9.43亿 | | 000859 | 国风新材 | 9.06 | -2.58% | 183.50万 | 16.94亿 | | 688165 | 埃夫特 | 21.25 | -2.43% | 6.11万 | 1.31亿 | | 600318 | 新力金融 | 8.88 | -2.42% | 17.69万 | 1.58亿 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 150.20 | -2.39% | 3.48万 | 5.24亿 | | 002556 | 辉煌股份 | 5.87 | -2.17% | 1 ...

铜陵有色(000630)公司研究报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 [Table_Title] 铜资源紧缺度上升，米拉多二期指引增长 ——铜陵有色(000630)首次覆盖报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 铜全产业链企业，受限铜加工费短期利润承压 [Table_Main] 公司研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 企业实现了铜全产业链布局，核心业务涵盖铜矿勘探、采选、冶炼及精深加 工等关键环节。联合旗下铜箔加工企业铜冠铜箔，成功实现了双主体上市。 近五年，企业营业收入与净利润稳步提升。2020-2024 年，公司营业收入年 均复合增长率为 9.99%，归母净利润年均复合增长率为 34.20%。 但受到铜加工费持续走低和海外子公司所得税政策调整事件影响，企业短 期利润承压。2025 年前三年度，企业实现营收 1218.93 亿元（同比 +14.66%），归母净利润 17.71 亿元（同比-35.13%）。2025 年半年度铜产 品毛利仅 34.45 亿元（同比-26.97%），占比下降至 56.91%。黄金、硫酸等 副产品成为利润新支撑点。 铜精矿供给增长放缓，新兴领域拉动铜产品需求 供给端，全球铜储量 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日安徽国企改革板块主力资金净流出2691.67万元，游资资金净流出1665.75万元， 散户资金净流入4357.42万元。安徽国企改革板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688249 | 晶合隼成 | 2.671Z | 15.43% | -208.46万 | -0.12% | -2.64 Z | -15.31% | | 301217 | 铜冠铜箔 | 8652.13万 | 5.27% | -1.10亿 | -6.70% | 2359.11万 | 1.44% | | 000417 | 合百集团 | 6347.07万 | 8.93% | -3434.37万 | -4.83% | -2912.70万 | -4.10% | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | 4269.35万 | 1.83% | 3598.36万 | 1.54% | -7867.71万 | -3.37 ...

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta region's top 100 enterprises were announced, highlighting significant contributions from Anhui Province with 10 companies listed, equally split between state-owned and private enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance of Anhui Enterprises - The total revenue for the top 10 enterprises in Anhui is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.90% [1] - Net profit for these enterprises is expected to be 53.74 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.51% [1] - Total assets amount to 1.6 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 16.88% [1] - Owner's equity is estimated at 462.27 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.35% [1] - Total tax contributions are projected at 78.75 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 59.01% [1] - Research and development expenses are expected to reach 35.64 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.77% [1] - The workforce across these enterprises totals 335,000 employees, reflecting an increase of 8.19% [1] Group 2: Key Contributors to Growth - Chery Holding Group and Hefei BYD are the primary drivers of revenue growth in Anhui, with Chery achieving 429.51 billion yuan in revenue, a 55.20% increase, and Hefei BYD reaching 101.94 billion yuan, a 66.35% increase [2] - All 10 listed enterprises in Anhui reported profits, with 7 companies experiencing profit increases totaling 5.86 billion yuan, a growth rate of 16.63% [2] - Notable profit growth was observed in companies such as Sunshine Power, Chery Holding, Hefei BYD, and others, with growth rates exceeding 10% [2] Group 3: Comparison with Other Provinces - In the manufacturing sector, Anhui has 13 companies in the top 100, compared to 32 from Jiangsu, 15 from Shanghai, and 40 from Zhejiang [2] - In the service sector, Anhui has 9 companies listed, while Jiangsu has 27, Shanghai has 35, and Zhejiang has 29 [2]

资金面上，数据宝统计，截至12月5日收盘，12月以来融资净买入逾1亿元的白银概念股有4只，分别为 云南铜业、兴业银锡、赤峰黄金、铜陵有色。 估值水平方面，截至12月5日收盘，13只白银概念股滚动市盈率低于30倍，其中豫光金铅、株冶集团、 紫金矿业、西部矿业滚动市盈率不到20倍。豫光金铅滚动市盈率为15.04倍，排在最低位置。今年前三 季度，公司实现净利润6.21亿元，同比增长11.99%。 据数据宝统计，截至12月5日收盘，今年以来白银概念股平均上涨79.24%，远远跑赢同期上证指数。兴 业银锡、华钰矿业、盛达资源、鹏欣资源、紫金矿业、赤峰黄金6只概念股年内涨幅翻倍。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]