Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and sales of potassium fertilizer, alongside ongoing capacity expansion in both potassium and non-potassium businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 216.6% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.309 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%. The net profit for the same period was 470 million yuan, marking a year-on-year rise of 149.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4% [1]. - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.822 billion yuan, 2.408 billion yuan, and 2.926 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.97 yuan, 2.61 yuan, and 3.17 yuan per share [1]. Group 2: Potassium Fertilizer Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1.0141 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, and sold 1.0454 million tons, up 21.4%. Revenue from potassium chloride reached 2.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.29%, with a gross margin of 58.20%, up 10.31 percentage points [2]. - In Q2 2025, potassium chloride production was 507,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3%. Sales for the same period were 517,100 tons, down 8.1% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Project Development - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 57.5% and 33.82%, respectively, representing increases of 8.44 and 18.83 percentage points year-on-year. For Q2 2025, these margins were 60.63% and 36.00%, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 6.51 and 4.52 percentage points [3]. - The company currently has a potassium chloride production capacity of 3 million tons per year, with two additional 1 million tons per year projects in the later stages of construction. The second project is progressing with the main shaft construction, while the third project has entered the electromechanical installation phase [3]. - The company also holds a stake in an Asian bromine business, which has a current production capacity of 25,000 tons per year, with plans to expand to 50,000 tons per year in 2025 [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Akzo International (000893.SZ) is rated as a "buy" due to its strong performance in both potash and non-potash businesses, with new production capacities being developed in an orderly manner [1] - The report highlights that the increase in both volume and profit from potash fertilizers is driving significant growth in performance [1] - There is a notable improvement in profitability, with sufficient growth momentum as the company successfully advances its new production capacities in both potash and non-potash sectors [1]

基础化工/农化制品 亚钾国际（000893.SZ） 钾肥量利齐升助力业绩高增，新建产能有序推进 2025 年 08 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 32.79 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 33.98/14.50 | | 总市值(亿元) | 303.00 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 266.19 | | 总股本(亿股) | 9.24 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.12 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 91.96 | 股价走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 亚钾国际 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《Q1 业绩高增，钾肥产销保持增长， 有序推进钾肥产能扩张和非钾业务— 公司信息更新报告》-2025.4.25 《Q3 业绩环比改善，持续推进降本增 效及项目建设—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.4 金益腾（分析师） 徐正凤（分析师） jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed significant improvement, with revenue reaching 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 216.64% year-on-year [5]. - The increase in both quantity and price of potassium chloride has positively impacted the company's performance, with production and sales volumes for the first half of 2025 growing by 20.00% and 21.42% respectively [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming production of two new 1 million ton/year potassium chloride projects, which will enhance its earnings potential [5]. - The change in major shareholders, with Huineng Group becoming the largest shareholder, is anticipated to strengthen the company's market competitiveness [5]. Financial Forecast Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 to 2027 is expected to grow from 35.48 billion yuan in 2024 to 80.28 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -8.97%, 54.83%, 16.92%, and 25.00% respectively [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 9.50 billion yuan in 2024 to 27.50 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -23.05%, 80.50%, 24.85%, and 28.40% respectively [2][7]. - The diluted EPS is projected to rise from 1.03 yuan in 2024 to 2.98 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 32.14 to 11.11 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.30 CNY [2][9]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.522 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 855 million CNY, up 216.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The potassium fertilizer industry is expected to maintain high prosperity, with the company showing significant growth potential [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,548 million CNY, 5,707 million CNY, 7,532 million CNY, and 9,336 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of -9.0%, 60.8%, 32.0%, and 23.9% [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 950 million CNY, 1,847 million CNY, 2,602 million CNY, and 3,359 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of -23.0%, 94.4%, 40.8%, and 29.1% [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.03 CNY, 2.00 CNY, 2.82 CNY, and 3.64 CNY for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4][10]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 30.549 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 26.838 billion CNY [5]. Production and Sales Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced and sold 1.0141 million tons and 1.0454 million tons of potassium chloride, respectively, marking increases of 20.0% and 21.4% year-on-year [9]. - The average selling price of potassium fertilizer has increased due to sustained demand and reduced supply uncertainties, leading to improved profitability [9]. Future Growth Potential - The company is advancing its construction of additional potassium fertilizer production capacity, aiming to leverage economies of scale and reduce overall costs [9]. - The non-potassium business segment, particularly bromine production, is expected to expand, enhancing the company's competitive position in the chemical industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in H1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by high demand and favorable pricing in the potassium fertilizer market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 216.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.309 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.0% and 8.0% respectively, while net profit was 470 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 149.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4% [1]. Potassium Fertilizer Production and Sales - The company maintained high levels of potassium chloride production and sales, with production and sales volumes of 1.0141 million tons and 1.0454 million tons respectively in H1 2025, marking increases of 20.0% and 21.4% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, production and sales volumes were 507,900 tons and 517,100 tons respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +0.3% and -2.1% [2]. Market Conditions - The potassium fertilizer market has experienced sustained high demand and rising prices since H2 2024, particularly driven by spring planting in Q1 2025 and production cuts by major overseas players [2][3]. - As of August 21, 2025, domestic potassium fertilizer inventory at major ports was 1.66 million tons, down 45% from the beginning of the year, indicating a tightening market [3]. Growth Prospects - The company is well-positioned for growth with a current production capacity of 3 million tons per year for potassium chloride and ongoing projects to expand capacity by an additional 2 million tons [4]. - The company also has a 46% stake in an Asian bromine business, which is expected to expand its production capacity from 2,500 tons to 5,000 tons per year, enhancing its non-potassium business segment [4]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.847 billion yuan, 2.602 billion yuan, and 3.359 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.5x, 11.7x, and 9.1x [4]. - A target price of 42.30 yuan is set for 2026, based on a 15x target PE ratio, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing model, which shows improved predictive accuracy with a success rate of 74% for the recent two years [12][14] - The company Atour (ATAT.O) has raised its full-year retail revenue guidance, with Q2 revenue growing by 37.4% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [15][17] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a focus on logistics park transformation projects [18][16] Group 1: Interest Rate Timing Strategy - The updated model incorporates richer factor indicators and adjusts weightings for different types of indicators, enhancing predictive capabilities [14] - Three strategy applications have been designed: basic timing strategy, timing & treasury futures strategy, and timing & leverage strategy, all outperforming longer-duration benchmarks [14] - The timing & leverage strategy achieved a maximum annualized excess return of 128 basis points [14] Group 2: Atour (ATAT.O) Performance - Atour's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit increase of 39.8% year-on-year to 425 million yuan [15][17] - The company opened 118 new hotels in Q2, maintaining its target of 500 new openings for the year [15][17] - Retail business GMV reached 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year growth of 84.6%, with online sales accounting for over 90% [15][17] Group 3: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) Insights - The company’s logistics park transformation and asset securitization strategies are expected to enhance earnings resilience [18][16] - For 2025-2027, net profit forecasts are 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion HKD, with a dividend yield projected at 8.3%, 9.3%, and 10.6% respectively [18][16] - The logistics park business reported a revenue of 785 million HKD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [18][16] Group 4: Steel Industry Performance - Baosteel (600019) reported steady growth with high dividend maintenance, while Hualing Steel (000932) saw a significant increase in high-end product sales [20][24] - The steel industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end products, with companies like Zhongxin Special Steel (000708) maintaining stable performance [26] - The overall steel market is expected to benefit from reduced raw material costs and improved product structures, leading to enhanced profitability [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The significant growth in the performance of Yara International is closely linked to the global potassium fertilizer market dynamics, particularly due to supply constraints and increased demand driven by agricultural needs [1][2]. Company Performance - Yara International reported a revenue of 2.522 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 49% increase from 1.698 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 855 million yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 217% [1]. - The company produced 1.01 million tons of qualified potassium chloride, a 20% increase year-on-year, and sold 1.05 million tons, up 21% from the previous year [1]. Market Dynamics - The global potassium fertilizer market is experiencing supply tightness due to production cuts in major producing countries like Russia and Belarus, logistical challenges, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply from Israel [1]. - The expansion of agricultural demand, particularly in Southeast Asia, is driving annual growth in the potassium fertilizer market, with Malaysia's imports reaching a record high of 1.07 million tons and Indonesia's imports increasing by 48% to 2.56 million tons [2]. - The average price of potassium chloride in China rose by 20.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to Yara International's improved gross margin, which increased by 8 percentage points to 57% [2]. Future Outlook - The potassium fertilizer market is expected to maintain strong demand in the second half of 2025, supported by stable economic conditions in key Southeast Asian crop planting seasons and replenishment plans in North America [3]. - Global potassium fertilizer shipments are projected to reach between 73 million and 75 million tons in 2025, according to Nutrien's mid-year report [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][6][27]. Core Views - The company benefits from the upward trend in the potassium fertilizer industry, with both volume and price expected to rise in the first half of 2025, leading to a projected 217% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding its potassium fertilizer production capacity, aiming to expedite the commissioning of new projects [3][26]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.52 billion yuan (up 48.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 850 million yuan (up 216.6% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The production of potassium chloride reached 1.0141 million tons (up 20.0% year-on-year), with sales of 1.0454 million tons (up 21.4% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The average ex-tax price for potassium chloride was 2,353 yuan/ton (up 22.1% year-on-year), with a production cost of approximately 1,025 yuan/ton (up 2.1% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The gross margin was 57.5% (up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year), and the net margin was 33.8% (up 18.8 percentage points year-on-year) [1][8]. Quarterly Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 470 million yuan (up 149.2% year-on-year, up 22.4% quarter-on-quarter) [2][18]. - Revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.31 billion yuan (up 23.0% year-on-year, up 8.0% quarter-on-quarter) [2][18]. - The average ex-tax price for potassium chloride in Q2 was 2,451 yuan/ton (up 32.0% year-on-year, up 8.6% quarter-on-quarter) [2][18]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company holds potassium salt mining rights over 263.3 square kilometers in Laos, with a total reserve of approximately 1 billion tons of pure potassium chloride resources [3][26]. - The company is accelerating the construction of its second and third 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects, which are in the later stages of mining construction [3][26].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yara International, reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by a favorable market for potassium fertilizers and stable production and sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and a net profit of 856 million yuan, up 219.48% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.309 billion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 7.99% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, reflecting a 152.08% year-on-year increase and a 23% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. Industry Outlook - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a small boom, with the average price of potassium chloride in H1 2025 at 2,943.20 yuan/ton, a 20.44% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average price of potassium chloride in Q2 2025 rebounded to 3,276 yuan/ton, a 30.21% increase from the year's low [2]. - The import volume of potassium chloride in H1 2025 was 6.28 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [2]. Shareholder Structure - The company underwent a change in its major shareholder, with Huineng Group becoming the largest shareholder after acquiring 5% of the shares from China Agricultural Production Materials Group [3]. Resource and Cost Management - The company holds potassium salt mining rights in Laos, with a resource reserve exceeding 1 billion tons of pure potassium chloride [4]. - A tax rate reduction from 35% to 20% for corporate income tax and from 7% to 1.5% for export duties is expected to lower overall costs from 2024 to 2028 [4]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company has a current production capacity of 3 million tons/year for potassium chloride, with ongoing projects to expand capacity further [4]. - The second and third 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects are in the later stages of construction, with significant progress reported [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.558 billion, 9.490 billion, and 12.232 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.930 billion, 3.475 billion, and 4.212 billion yuan [5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the potassium salt sector, with a favorable growth outlook supported by new capacity additions [5].