平台公司提振，多晶硅偏强震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251215 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格偏弱。截至2025年12月12日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周下跌100元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约大幅走低，截至12月12日主力合约收8390元/吨。 供应：新疆地区因上周新增硅炉产量释放，目前硅价低位北方大厂有协商自律意愿，且冬季空气污染多发，石河子重 污染天气预警对硅企生产有所影响，关注开工变化情况；云南地区开工维持低位；四川地区在产硅企季节性减产，在 产硅企稀少。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，周内有部分粉单订单招标；有机硅开工小幅下降，下游持稳为主；铝合金企业开工 率小幅下降，重庆地区因天气污染有减产。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月11日工业硅全国社会库存共计56.1万吨，较上周增加0.3万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供需偏弱，高库存去 ...

需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为178.78万吨（-10.53），热轧当周产量为308.71万吨（-5.6）。钢厂检修增加，钢材产 量下降。 （2） 需求： 钢材需求季节性偏弱。上周螺纹表观需求为203.09万吨（-13.89），热轧表观需求311.97万吨(-2.89）。 （3）库存： 螺纹钢维持去库，幅度放缓。螺纹钢总库存479.5万吨(-24.31），社会库存338.7万吨(-22.43)，钢厂库存140.8万吨 (-1.88); 钢材周报 20251215 热卷小幅去库，厂库累积。热轧总库存397.09万吨(-3.26),社会库存万吨(-7.37)，钢厂库存万吨(+4.11)。 （4）基差：基差走强，螺纹主力合约基差210元/吨（+77），热卷主力合约基差8元/吨（+28） （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比下降0.43%; 铁水产量229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。 高炉开工率7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and market position of Hongye Futures, which has a high PE ratio compared to its industry peers [1] - As of December 12, Hongye Futures closed at 10.38 yuan, with a PE ratio of 675.06, significantly higher than the industry average of 57.69 and the median of 25.88 [1][2] - The total market capitalization of Hongye Futures is 10.461 billion yuan, ranking it 21st in the multi-financial industry [1] Group 2 - The company reported a significant decline in its latest financial results, with a revenue of 462 million yuan for the third quarter of 2025, down 76.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.0897 million yuan, down 87.27% year-on-year [1] - As of January 10, 2025, the number of shareholders in Hongye Futures is 40,409, a decrease of 517 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares [1] - Hongye Futures specializes in various financial services, including commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, and fund sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber industry in Hainan Baisha Li Autonomous County is crucial for local livelihoods, but it faces challenges due to international price fluctuations. The "insurance + futures" project initiated by Hongye Futures aims to stabilize farmers' income and support rural revitalization [1][2]. Group 1: Project Implementation - Hongye Futures has been implementing the "insurance + futures" project in Hainan Baisha for three years, covering a rubber scale of 3,000 tons and benefiting nearly 27,000 farmers this year [1]. - The project is supported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and aims to mitigate price volatility risks for rubber farmers, injecting financial momentum into the industry [1]. Group 2: Collaboration and Community Engagement - A recent event saw Hongye Futures collaborate with local village party branches to promote the integration of party organization building and financial services [1]. - An agreement was signed to leverage the strengths of both the futures company in risk management and local organizations in community engagement to promote financial tools like "insurance + futures" [1]. Group 3: Educational Initiatives - Following the signing ceremony, Hongye Futures conducted a specialized party class and policy briefing for village leaders, party representatives, and key rubber farmers, emphasizing the role of the futures market in supporting the real economy [2]. - The company encourages grassroots party members to learn financial knowledge and promote agricultural benefit policies, aiming to translate organizational strength into tangible results for industry revitalization [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hongye Futures has shown fluctuations in stock performance, with a year-to-date increase of 8.72% but a recent decline over the past 20 and 60 days [1][2] - As of December 12, Hongye Futures' stock price was 10.47 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 10.551 billion yuan and a trading volume of 43.19 million yuan [1] - The company has experienced significant net inflows of main funds, amounting to 206,400 yuan, with large orders accounting for 13.81% of total buying and 13.33% of total selling [1] Group 2 - Hongye Futures, established on July 31, 1995, is primarily engaged in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, fund sales, and financial asset investment [2] - The company's revenue composition indicates that 67.03% comes from commodity trading and risk management, while 32.97% is from futures brokerage and asset management [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Hongye Futures reported a revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.09 million yuan, down 87.27% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Hongye Futures has distributed a total of 44.34 million yuan in dividends [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 13.10% to 54,400, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2][3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 2.8647 million shares, a decrease of 3.2006 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - 弘业期货 experienced a decline of 2.84% in stock price, with a trading volume of 96.78 million yuan and a market capitalization of 10.33 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - 弘业期货股份有限公司 primarily engages in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management, fund sales, and financial asset investment [2][7] - The company is the first A+H share listed company in the futures industry [2] - 弘业期货 is a state-owned enterprise controlled by the Jiangsu Provincial Government State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, 弘业期货 reported operating revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.09 million yuan, down 87.27% year-on-year [7] - The company has distributed a total of 44.34 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [8] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for 弘业期货 was 54,400, a decrease of 13.10% from the previous period [7] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, with notable changes in their holdings [8] Market Activity - The main net inflow of funds today was -12.77 million yuan, with a market ranking of 12 out of 27 in its industry [4] - The average trading cost of the stock is 11.46 yuan, with the current price fluctuating between resistance at 10.97 yuan and support at 9.93 yuan [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Suhao Holdings Group's Zhongshan Limited has reduced its stake in Hongye Futures (03678.HK) by selling 700,000 shares at an average price of HKD 3.5856 per share, amounting to approximately HKD 2.5099 million [1] - After the reduction, Suhao Holdings Group's Zhongshan Limited holds a total of 19.705 million shares, decreasing its ownership percentage from 8.17% to 7.89% [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that this is not the first reduction, as Suhao Holdings Group previously reduced its stake by 3.45 million shares [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Soho Holdings Group's Zhongshan Company has reduced its stake in Hongye Futures (03678) by selling 700,000 shares at a price of approximately HKD 3.59 per share, totaling around HKD 2.5099 million [1] - After the reduction, the latest number of shares held by the company is 19.705 million, representing a holding percentage of 7.89% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Soho Holdings Group has reduced its stake in Hongye Futures by selling 700,000 shares at a price of HKD 3.5856 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2.5099 million [1] - After the reduction, Soho Holdings Group's remaining shareholding is 19.705 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 7.89% [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the iron ore market, with the trading logic of continuous decline in hot metal production and weak shock in the market [5]. - The global iron ore shipment increased slightly this period, with an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ores and a decrease in Brazilian ores. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium - high level. Domestic ore production dropped to a low level, and the overall supply was relatively loose [6]. - The hot metal production continued to decline. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and there was still room for the hot metal production to decline. The support of steel mills' rigid demand procurement weakened [6]. - The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a medium - high level, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. The demand for winter storage replenishment had not started, and the overall inventory was relatively stable [5][6]. - The basis of 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased slightly. The imported ore price fluctuated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5]. - The strategy is range - bound trading, and the iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [6]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price fluctuated and declined [7]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, fluctuated at a low level [13][17]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated and declined, and the 05 basis declined slightly [21]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated and rebounded, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [28]. Group 3: Supply - From December 1st to December 7th, the global iron ore shipment was 3368.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.4 tons. The Australian shipment was 1967.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 147.0 tons; the Brazilian shipment was 675.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 254.2 tons; the non - mainstream ore shipment was 1174.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 91 tons [5]. - The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2480.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 218.8 tons [5]. - As of December 5th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder of 186 domestic mines was 45.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 58.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%, and the mine concentrate powder inventory was 75.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 tons [5]. - The shipping price index declined slightly [51]. Group 4: Demand - In the week of December 5th, the daily average hot metal output was 232.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 tons. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and the hot metal production still had room to decline [5]. - The steel mill blast furnace profit declined slightly [64]. Group 5: Inventory - The imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 3 to 109, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a medium - high level [5]. - The steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the demand for winter storage replenishment had not started [5][6]. - The port throughput declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased slightly [77]. - The Australian ore inventory continued to increase, and the Brazilian ore inventory declined from a high level [81]. - The coarse powder inventory fluctuated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory increased slightly [87].