Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. (招商蛇口) - **Year**: 2024 Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: CNY 178.95 billion, up 2.25% year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: CNY 4.04 billion, down 36.09% year-on-year due to industry downturn and increased impairment provisions [3] - **Gross Margin**: 4.61% [3] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow of CNY 31.96 billion, with cash reserves reaching CNY 100.35 billion, the highest in five years [3] - **Sales**: Contracted sales of CNY 219.3 billion, ranking fifth in the industry [3][5] Industry Position and Market Dynamics - **Market Ranking**: Top 30 in 12 cities, with five cities ranking first locally [5] - **Investment Strategy**: Focused on core cities, acquiring 26 land parcels totaling 2.25 million square meters at a cost of CNY 48.6 billion [5] - **Market Conditions**: Transition from supply shortage to oversupply, with a need for strategic adjustments in product quality and service capabilities [12] Product Development and Innovation - **Product Lines**: Launched new product lines "启旭", "天青", and "揽月", achieving a 25% higher sales rate than competitors [3][6] - **Awards**: Projects recognized as top luxury offerings in 2024 [6] Asset Management and REITs - **Asset Income**: Total income from held properties reached CNY 7.46 billion, up 12% [8] - **REITs Platforms**: Established three REITs platforms with a total asset management scale of CNY 13.7 billion, promoting a virtuous cycle of asset management [9] Property Services - **Revenue Growth**: Property service revenue increased by 10% to CNY 17.1 billion, with net profit up 14% [10] - **Contract Growth**: New third-party contracts signed worth CNY 3.69 billion, covering 162 cities [10] ESG Initiatives - **ESG Rating**: Maintained an A rating from MSCI, the highest in the Chinese real estate sector, reflecting strong performance in environmental, social, and governance aspects [11] Future Strategies - **2025 Goals**: Focus on stabilizing development business while enhancing asset operation capabilities and expanding light asset business [13] - **Sales Target**: Expected saleable value of CNY 325 billion in 2025, with 79% from residential properties [14] - **Digital Transformation**: Implementing AI strategies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [16] Financial Health and Debt Management - **Debt Levels**: Total interest-bearing debt of CNY 222.6 billion, with a cost of 2.99% [4][26] - **Cost Management**: Reduced management costs and improved project debt management to align with cash flow [26] Market Outlook - **Economic Growth**: Anticipated 5% growth in 2025, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [21][22] - **Real Estate Policy**: Continued government support for stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to boost demand and improve supply [23][24] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: China Merchants Shekou is adapting to market changes by enhancing product quality, expanding service capabilities, and leveraging digital technologies to ensure sustainable growth in a challenging real estate environment.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by impairment losses, but it demonstrates significant financing advantages and share buybacks reflect confidence in its future [7] - The company holds high-quality land reserves in core cities, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which is expected to benefit from industry optimization as the market stabilizes [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 178.948 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted to be 4.039 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36.1% due to impairment provisions [5] - The earnings per share for 2024 is estimated at 0.37 yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 14.6% in 2024, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has a weighted average financing cost of 2.99%, which is a 48 basis points improvement year-on-year [7] Sales and Land Acquisition - The company achieved sales of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year, ranking fifth in the industry [7] - The land acquisition amount for 2024 is 48.6 billion yuan, with a land acquisition area of 2.25 million square meters [7] - The average sales price per square meter in 2024 is 23,000 yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year [7] Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the company's impairment losses have negatively affected its performance, but its financing advantages and focus on core cities position it well for future recovery [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is adjusted to 4.230 billion yuan, down from previous estimates due to increased impairment losses [7] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating based on the quality of land reserves in key cities [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12][19] Core Views - The company focuses on acquiring land in core cities, which provides a sufficient supply of sellable properties. However, the performance is impacted by impairment provisions related to high-priced land inventory from 2020-2021 [6][7][12] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1789.48 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.09% to 40.39 billion yuan [6][9] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 14.61% and 2.34%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 1789.48 billion yuan, up 2.25% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 40.39 billion yuan, down 36.09% [6][9] - The gross margin and net margin were 14.61% and 2.34%, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.28 percentage points and 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6][9] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 319.64 billion yuan, an increase of 1.69% year-on-year, with a cash balance of 1003.51 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [6] Sales and Land Acquisition - The company recorded a contracted sales amount of 2193.02 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.31% year-on-year, with a sales area of 935.90 million square meters, down 23.50% [7] - The company ranked first in sales amount in five cities, including Xi'an and Changsha, and maintained a stable position in the overall sales ranking [7] - In 2024, the company acquired 26 land parcels with a total construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land price of about 48.6 billion yuan, with an investment intensity of 22% [7] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to implementing its "AI+" strategy, exploring advanced technologies for smart services and operations, which contributed to a 12% year-on-year increase in income from held properties [8] - The investment in "core 10 cities" accounted for 90% of total investment, with 59% of the investment in first-tier cities [7][8]

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 03 月 18 日 招商蛇口 (001979) ——减值拖累业绩，融资优势明显，回购彰显信心 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 9.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.44/7.45 | | 市净率 | 0.9 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 3.32 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 80,312 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,429.76/11,014.75 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 03-18 04-18 05-18 06-18 07-18 08-18 09-18 10-18 11-18 12-18 01-18 02-18 03-18 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 招商蛇口 沪深300指数 (收益率) 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 178.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.1% [8] - The revenue growth was driven by an increase in the scale of project handovers, although gross profit margin declined by 1.5 percentage points to 15.6% due to increased credit and asset impairment losses [8] - The company ranked among the top five in the industry for sales, with a signed sales area of 9.36 million square meters and a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience during the industry downturn [8] - The company focused its investments on core cities, acquiring 26 land parcels with a total construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and an investment amount of about 48.6 billion yuan [8] - The company has a clear financing advantage, with a comprehensive funding cost reduced to 2.99%, and plans to repurchase shares worth 351 to 702 million yuan, reflecting confidence in its operations and future development [8] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards to 4.17 billion yuan and 4.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46 and 0.48 yuan [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 175.01 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 178.95 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit for 2023 was 6.32 billion yuan, expected to decrease to 4.04 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.45 yuan for 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.54 yuan by 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 21.76 for 2024, decreasing to 18.04 by 2027 [1]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·房地产开发 招商蛇口（001979） 2024 年报点评：销售排名稳固，积极回购注 销 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 175008 | 178948 | 195411 | 209676 | 222885 | | 同比（%） | (4.37) | 2.25 | 9.20 | 7.30 | 6.30 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6319 | 4039 | 4173 | 4350 | 4873 | | 同比（%） | 48.20 | (36.09) | 3.33 | 4.23 | 12.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.70 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.91 | 21.76 | 21.06 | 20.21 | 18.04 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12][19] Core Views - The company has focused on acquiring land in core cities, which has resulted in a stable sales performance despite a decline in profit due to impairment provisions [6][7][12] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1789.48 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.09% to 40.39 billion yuan [6][9] - The company’s gross margin and net margin were 14.61% and 2.34%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 1789.48 billion yuan, up 2.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.39 billion yuan, down 36.09% [6][9] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 14.61%, and the net margin fell by 2.86 percentage points to 2.34% [6][9] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 319.64 billion yuan, an increase of 1.69% year-on-year, with a year-end cash balance of 1003.51 billion yuan [6] Sales and Land Acquisition - The company’s signed sales amount in 2024 was 2193.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.31% year-on-year, with a signed sales area of 935.90 million square meters, down 23.50% [7] - The company ranked first in sales amount in five cities, including Xi'an and Changsha, and maintained a fifth position in the overall sales ranking [7] - In 2024, the company acquired 26 land parcels with a total construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan, with an investment intensity of 22% [7] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to its "AI+" strategy, exploring advanced technologies for smart services and operations, resulting in a 12% year-on-year increase in income from held properties [8] - The investment in core cities accounted for 90% of the total investment, with 59% of the investment directed towards first-tier cities [7][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 178.95 billion yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 2.25% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.09% to 4.04 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in gross profit margin and increased impairment provisions [1][2]. - The company remains the fifth largest in the industry by sales, with a total sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, down 25.3% year-on-year [2]. - The company has a solid financial position with a cash balance of 100.35 billion yuan, up 13.66% year-on-year, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.37% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 178.95 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.25% compared to 2023 [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 36.09% year-on-year [7]. - The gross profit margin for the development business was 15.58%, down 1.53 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales and Market Position - The company maintained its position as the fifth largest in the industry, with a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, which is a decrease of 25.3% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company focused its investments on core first and second-tier cities, with 90% of its total investment in the "core 10 cities" and 59% in first-tier cities [2]. Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.37% and a net debt ratio of 55.85% [3]. - The cash short-term debt ratio was 1.59, indicating a strong liquidity position [3]. - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 31.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.69% [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit, projecting 6.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 68.6% [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.9x, 11.6x, and 10.5x, respectively [4].

事件 2025 年 3 月 17 日，公司发布 2024 年年报：实现营收 1789.48 亿 元，同比+2.25%；归母净利润 40.39 亿元，同比-36.09%。 点评 营收略增，归母净利下降，主因结转毛利率下滑及计提减值增加。 2024 年公司开发业务的结转毛利率为 15.58%，同比下降 1.53pct。 2024 年公司共计提资产减值准备 59.44 亿元（其中存货跌价准备 35.75 亿元），减少归母净利润 43.44 亿元。 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 240317 240617 240917 241217 250317 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 招商蛇口 沪深300 | 公司基本情况（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 175,008 | 178,948 | 1 ...

招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 控股股东、实际控制人及其他关联方 资金占用情况的专项说明 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止 毕马威华振会计师事务所 (特殊普通合伙) 中国北京 东长安街 1 号 东方广场毕马威大楼 8 层 邮政编码:100738 电话 +86 (10) 8508 5000 传真 +86 (10) 8518 5111 网址 kpmg.com/cn 关于招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2024 年度控股股东、实际控制人及其他关联方资金占用情况的专项说明 关于 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 2024 年度控股股东、实际控制人及其他关联方资金占用情况的专项说明（续) 毕马威华振专字第 2501012 号 根据我们所执行的程序，我们没有注意到任何事项使我们相信汇总表所载信息与我们审计 贵公司 2024 年度财务报表时贵公司提供的会计资料和经审计的财务报表的相关内容在所有重 大方面存在不一致的情况。 毕马威华振专字第 2501012 号 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司董事会： 我们接受委托，按照中国注册会计师审计准则审计了招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 （以下简称"贵公司"）2024 ...