Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The new housing transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding. The transaction area for new homes in 40 cities was 1.722 million square meters, down 34.8% month-on-month and down 47.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 9.7 percentage points compared to the previous week [7][18] - The report highlights the implementation of a policy in Pingjiang County, Hunan, promoting the sale of completed homes, which is expected to enhance product quality and safety in the housing market [3][98] - The report expresses confidence in the future recovery of the real estate industry, suggesting that companies with strong liquidity, high market share in key cities, and innovative product offerings will have alpha attributes [7] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of November 1 to November 7, 2025, the new housing transaction area in 40 cities decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 47.0% [17][18] - The inventory of new homes increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with a depleting cycle of 18.7 months, indicating a mixed market condition [38][39] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 154.4 million square meters, down 6.6% month-on-month and down 31.9% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing market challenges [44][49] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 27.091 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 29.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%. The total land transaction price was 65.34 billion yuan, up 29.1% month-on-month but down 10.9% year-on-year [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,411.9 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a decline of 2.1% year-on-year [61][66] Policy Overview - The report outlines several key policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including promoting the sale of completed homes and optimizing housing supply mechanisms [3][98]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨招商蛇口（001979.SZ） [Table_Title] 业绩平稳释放，经营边际改善 ——招商蛇口 2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 业绩方面，公司 2025 前三季度业绩相对平稳，开发业务毛利率筑底修复，全年业绩展望相对 稳健。经营方面，公司 2025 年前三季度销售金额同比略有下降，规模排名行业第四，拿地强 度保持相对积极，其中 Q3 销售拿地均有边际改善，且公司发行优先股方案有序推进，资产负 债表持续优化，综合竞争力有望保持行业前列。若后续行业迎来景气拐点，公司估值修复潜力 较大，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 招商蛇口（001979.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 业绩平稳释放，经营边际改善 2] ——招商蛇口 2025 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年三季度报告，报告期内实现营收 89 ...

资金流入比率方面，东百集团、中国中免、招商蛇口等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 34.03%、15.14%、12.85%。（数据宝） 免税店概念资金流入榜 截至11月10日收盘，免税店概念上涨2.76%，位居概念板块涨幅第5，板块内，26股上涨，中国中免、 东百集团等涨停，海汽集团、珠免集团、王府井等涨幅居前，分别上涨6.07%、5.49%、5.47%。跌幅居 前的有海南发展、海南机场、西藏珠峰等，分别下跌4.03%、2.53%、0.41%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乳业 | 4.36 | 同花顺果指数 | -1.56 | | 培育钻石 | 3.46 | 铜缆高速连接 | -1.50 | | 白酒概念 | 3.01 | 无线充电 | -1.26 | | 天津自贸区 | 2.97 | 超导概念 | -1.24 | | 免税店 | 2.76 | 汽车热管理 | -1.15 | | 预制菜 | 2.65 | PEEK材料 | -1.07 | | 金属铅 | 2.53 | 富士康概念 | ...

Group 1: Housing Fund Loan in Nanning - Nanning Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued its first allocation-type housing provident fund loan, benefiting a buyer of a 117 square meter two-bedroom affordable housing unit with a total price of 557,000 yuan [1] - The buyer paid a down payment of 87,000 yuan and secured a provident fund loan of 470,000 yuan for a term of 20 years, using an equal principal repayment method [1] - The monthly payment is less than 3,000 yuan, saving approximately 19,000 yuan in interest compared to the same amount of commercial loans [1] Group 2: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales amount of 15.365 billion yuan in October, with a sales area of 559,000 square meters [2] - Poly Developments disclosed a signed sales amount of 21.116 billion yuan in October, with a signed area of 1,093,800 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.86% in area and 50.12% in amount [3] - Shoukai Co., Ltd. achieved a signed sales amount of 999.7 million yuan in October, with a total signed area of 84,400 square meters [4] - Longfor Group reported a total contract sales amount of 5 billion yuan in October, with a contract sales area of 446,000 square meters [5]

Group 1 - The total sales of the top 50 listed real estate companies in China reached approximately 2116.51 billion yuan from January to October 2025, showing an increase of 217 billion yuan compared to the first nine months of the year [1] - The ranking among the top 50 companies has stabilized, with 31 companies maintaining their positions, indicating a strong competitive barrier [2][4] Group 2 - Poly Developments leads the sales with 222.7 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment with sales of 201.1 billion yuan and 189.1 billion yuan respectively [2][4] - Several companies, including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, and Jianfa Group, have entered the "billion-dollar club" [2] Group 3 - In October, only Shanghai had land transfer fees exceeding 10 billion yuan, totaling 21.05 billion yuan, while the top 20 cities collectively saw land transfer fees of 103.94 billion yuan, slightly down from September [9] - The total land transfer area in the top 20 cities was 16.545 million square meters in October, with only three cities exceeding one million square meters in land transfer area [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate [3][33]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant pressure, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 45% week-on-week and 47% year-on-year in November [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localized policies, such as credit rating links to pre-sale fund supervision in Fuzhou and tax subsidies in Suzhou, which aim to stimulate market activity [27][30]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in commercial real estate and property management, particularly in light of ongoing monetary easing in China [3][33]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 158.6 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 45.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.5% [4][5]. - Sales in first and second-tier cities saw a week-on-week decline of 46.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 34.4% drop [4][5]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 98.8 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [12][5]. - The cumulative sales for the year reached 50.1 million square meters, showing a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year [12]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 key cities, 82 million square meters were launched for sale, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.78, indicating a challenging market environment [19][5]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.5 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.2% [19]. Policy and News Summary - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated a digital transformation action plan to promote smart city development and property digitalization [27]. - Localized policies are being implemented, such as Fuzhou's new regulations linking credit ratings to pre-sale fund supervision and Suzhou's tax subsidies for home purchases [27][30]. - The report notes that various cities are relaxing residency requirements and enhancing public housing policies to stimulate demand [27][30]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for October 2025, with Poly Developments down 50.1% and China Overseas Development down 55.1% year-on-year [33]. - Financing activities included China Merchants Shekou providing an 800 million yuan loan guarantee for its subsidiary, and Daxin City reducing the interest rate on its issued bonds to 2.15% [33][36]. - The report highlights stock buybacks by companies such as Shell-W and Greentown Service, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant pressure with new home sales declining sharply due to high base effects from the previous year. The report highlights a 45% week-on-week drop in new home transactions across 34 key cities [3][4]. - Policy initiatives are being implemented to support the industry, including measures for digital transformation and localized policies to stimulate housing demand [3][29]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate, suggesting a shift in business models for real estate companies [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 158.6 million square meters, reflecting a 45% decrease week-on-week and a 47% year-on-year decline for November [3][4]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities increased slightly by 0.2%, with a current available area of 89.5 million square meters [3][20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a digital transformation action plan aimed at promoting smart city initiatives and property digitalization [3][29]. - Localized policies include Fuzhou linking real estate company credit ratings to pre-sale fund supervision, and Suzhou offering tax rebates for home purchases [3][29]. Company Announcements - Major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for October 2025, with Poly Developments at 211.2 billion yuan (-50.1%) and China Overseas Development at 186.6 billion yuan (-55.1%) [3][36]. - Financing activities include China Merchants Shekou providing an 800 million yuan loan guarantee for its subsidiary, and a reduction in bond interest rates by Joy City [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy measures are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, and is still in progress [4]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to favor investments in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Resident Price Expectations - According to the central bank's survey, the proportion of urban depositors who are pessimistic about housing prices has returned to levels seen in Q3 2024, with optimism below 10% [11]. - In Q3 2025, 9.1% of residents expect prices to rise, while 55.6% expect them to remain stable, and 23.5% anticipate a decline [11]. - The report notes that the "924" policy was introduced during a period of market pessimism, leading to a marginal improvement in confidence, but this has waned over time due to a lack of new policies [11]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 134.6 million square meters, down 41.6% month-on-month and 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 sample cities totaled 190.2 million square meters, down 8.3% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year [34]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 12 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 10.25 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the ongoing policy-driven recovery and the potential for improved performance in quality real estate companies [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) reported its sales performance for October 2025, indicating a strong sales volume and revenue growth compared to previous months [1] Sales Performance - In October 2025, the company achieved a contracted sales area of 559,000 square meters and a contracted sales amount of 15.365 billion yuan [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative contracted sales area reached 5.6457 million square meters, with a total contracted sales amount of 156.071 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - In October 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9%. Cumulatively, the sales turnover from January to October 2025 reached 25,766.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the decline rate widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Contract Sales - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan in October [3]. - The sales threshold for each tier of companies has further decreased compared to the same period last year, with the top 10 companies' sales threshold dropping by 9.4% to 67.89 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Land Acquisition - In October, the investment amount for land acquisition decreased by nearly 30% compared to the average monthly amount in the first three quarters, with over half of the companies not acquiring any land [10][12]. - The average land price in October fell to 19,809 yuan per square meter, a significant decrease of 54% month-on-month [12]. Group 3: Financing - In October 2025, the total financing amount for 65 typical real estate companies was 34.907 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 9.6% but a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [17]. - The financing cost for newly issued bonds by 65 typical real estate companies averaged 2.92%, a slight decrease from the previous year [19][21]. Group 4: Organizational Dynamics - In October 2025, there was a significant turnover in key positions within the real estate industry, including changes in leadership at major companies such as Vanke and Kincor [23][24]. - Vanke's chairman position changed hands from Xin Jie to Huang Liping, reflecting a strategic continuity amid risk management [24]. - Kincor completed a board restructuring, forming a new management team aimed at stabilizing operations and facilitating strategic transformation [25].