Core Viewpoint - The new lending regulations have significantly impacted the operations of the lending platform, Shuhua, leading to a substantial loss and a drastic reduction in its valuation, prompting the company to divest its stake in Shuhua to focus on its core business [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Impact - Shuhua reported a net loss of approximately 6.84 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a shift from profitability to loss due to the new lending regulations [2]. - The valuation of Shuhua's 54.97% stake was assessed at 29.44 billion yuan but was only valued at 7.82 billion yuan, resulting in a write-down of 21.62 billion yuan, a reduction rate of 73.45% [3]. - Following the divestment, the company recorded a one-time impairment loss exceeding 20 billion yuan, which affected its net profit for Q4 2025, reducing it by approximately 25.29 billion yuan [9]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions - The decision to divest from Shuhua was described as a proactive measure to respond to industry changes, allowing the company to refocus on its main business and recover funds [1]. - The divestment was characterized as a mutual agreement based on differing strategic focuses between the two companies, with Shuhua maintaining its independent operations [5]. Group 3: Historical Investment Performance - The company initially invested 1 billion yuan in Shuhua in 2016, and over the years, it has generated over 9 billion yuan in profits from this investment [6][9]. - From 2018 to 2024, the company reported a cumulative investment income of approximately 165.63 million yuan from Shuhua, with the highest contribution in 2024, accounting for over 99.39% of total long-term equity investment income [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the new lending regulations have significantly impacted the operations and valuation of the company Shuhua, leading to a strategic exit by the parent company, Focus Media [2][3] - Focus Media's board approved a plan to repurchase 54.97% of Shuhua's shares for a total consideration of 791 million yuan, with an initial payment of 404 million yuan received [2] - The new lending regulations, effective from October 1, 2025, have resulted in Shuhua transitioning from profitability to a net loss of approximately 684 million yuan in Q4 2025 [3] Group 2 - The valuation of Shuhua has decreased by over 70%, with an asset appraisal report indicating a book value of 2.944 billion yuan for the 54.97% stake, but an assessed value of only 782 million yuan, resulting in a write-down of 2.162 billion yuan [4] - The lending regulations have tightened the cooperation model and risk-sharing mechanisms, adversely affecting Shuhua's core business, which has led to a significant decline in its operational performance [3][4] - Shuhua's lending scale dropped from approximately 50 billion yuan to around 45 billion yuan due to the new compliance requirements limiting annualized interest rates to a maximum of 24% [5] Group 3 - Focus Media has earned over 900 million yuan from its investment in Shuhua over a nine-year period, with the initial investment made in 2016 [6][9] - The investment in Shuhua has been a significant contributor to Focus Media's long-term equity investment returns, with Shuhua accounting for over 99.39% of the investment income in 2024 [8] - Following the substantial write-down of Shuhua's valuation, Focus Media recorded a one-time impairment loss exceeding 2 billion yuan, which impacted its net profit for Q4 2025 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The advertising and marketing sector experienced a decline of 0.46% on January 26, with Tianlong Group leading the losses. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhejiang Wenhu Internet (600986) saw a significant increase of 10.04%, closing at 13.26 with a trading volume of 4.9269 million shares and a transaction value of 6.367 billion [1]. - Tiandi Online (002995) rose by 9.99%, closing at 25.10 with a trading volume of 380,800 shares and a transaction value of 946 million [1]. - Jiyun Technology (300242) increased by 3.41%, closing at 6.68 with a trading volume of 1.0061 million shares and a transaction value of 657 million [1]. - Tianlong Group (300063) led the declines with a drop of 6.24%, closing at 13.97 with a trading volume of 1.4105 million shares and a transaction value of 1.99 billion [2]. - Xinhua Du (002264) fell by 5.05%, closing at 9.96 with a trading volume of 723,200 shares and a transaction value of 725 million [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The advertising and marketing sector experienced a net outflow of 1.757 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.505 billion [2]. - Tiandi Online (002995) had a net inflow of 1.64 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 909.77 million from speculative funds [3]. - Fenjun Media (002027) recorded a net inflow of 869.46 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 972.81 million [3].

Group 1 - The company approved a proposal to recognize impairment losses on long-term equity investments in its associate, Dataseed Fintech Holdings Limited, amounting to RMB 2.153 billion [1][2] - As of September 30, 2025, the book value of the company's long-term equity investment in Dataseed was approximately RMB 3.32 billion, which was reduced to approximately RMB 2.944 billion after accounting for losses [1] - The impairment assessment conducted by Zhonglian Asset Appraisal Consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. indicated a significant reduction in the fair value of the investment, with a 73.45% impairment rate [2][3] Group 2 - The company plans to fully exit its investment in Dataseed for a consideration of RMB 791 million, resulting in a total impairment of RMB 2.153 billion for the fiscal year 2025 [2] - The impairment will lead to a corresponding decrease in the net profit attributable to shareholders by RMB 2.153 billion for the year 2025 [3] - The estimated recoverable amount from the long-term equity investment in Dataseed is RMB 791 million, compared to the book value of RMB 2.944 billion [3]

我们认为，本次调整不会影响公司经营趋势及高股东回报计划。本次减值是一次性影响，公司确认已从 数禾退出，不再享有相应股东权利，未来将不再对公司业绩产生影响。主业来看，根据我们的草根调 研，26 年以来互联网广告主增投（闪购、AI 应用等），以及Q1、Q2 有冬奥会、世界杯等赛事带动食 品饮料类广告投放，高分红+强韧性逻辑不变。 盈利预测与投资建议。在不考虑新潮合并及"碰一下"增量的情况，预计分众传媒25-27 年实现整体营收 为127.51/136.72/145.55 亿元，同比变化幅度分别为4.0%/7.2%/6.5%。考虑到数禾带来的减值及退出股权 影响，预计25Q4 归母净利润减少25.29 亿元，26Q1 归母净利润将相应增加5.65 亿元。在以上假设下， 我们预计2025-2027 年实现归母净利31.84/60.22/60.83 亿元，EPS 分别为0.22/0.42/0.42 元/股。估值来 看，考虑公司收购新潮交割后竞争格局向好，"碰一下"有望实现品效合一，我们参考可比公司估值，给 予公司26 年25X（归母净利润60.22 亿元剔除一次性转入投资收益的资本公积5.65 亿元），合理总价值 13 ...

江南春虽然是广告业的"教父"级人物，拥有很强的个人直觉，但他从未陷入"经验主义"的陷阱。当浑水 做空时，他没有固执己见，而是审视中美资本差异，果断回A；当移动互联网来袭，他承认自己在互联 网基因上的短板，果断引入阿里进行改造；当需要出海时，他信任老将，充分放权。 正如案例所示，"拓心界"要求领导者超越自身的局限，时刻准备拥抱变化。江南春通过不断的学习 和"借力"，让分众始终保持着对新技术的敏感度，从而避免了被时代淘汰。 复盘分众传媒20余年的发展史，我们看到的不仅是商业模式的胜利，更是一个组织在面对各种不确定性 时展现出的强大生命力。 我们将这种生命力总结为"韧性领导力飞轮"，它包含三个核心维度，为中国企业提供了宝贵的管理样 本。 韧性的起点，在于领导者能否在危机中保持认知的开放。 分众拥有超过5000名员工，但组织架构惊人地扁平，包括各区域销售负责人在内的60—70位高管，直接 向江南春汇报。这种设计看似违背管理学常识，实则最大化了信息的流动效率。江南春自述，在没客人 时进他的办公室不需要预约，即使在深夜2点也可以在微信上和他讨论工作。 更重要的是，江南春通过"共情"凝聚人心。用"持续性的小赢"——一系列可 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance and strategic adjustments of funds managed by Zhang Kun of E Fund, highlighting the significant differentiation in fund performance and his outlook on domestic consumption and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Zhang Kun's managed fund size decreased to 48.3 billion yuan, with a quarterly reduction exceeding 8 billion yuan [2][3] - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection Mixed Fund (005827.OF), experienced a nearly 9% loss in Q4, underperforming its benchmark by over 6%, while the E Fund Asia Select Stock Fund (118001.OF) achieved a 4.5% positive return, outperforming its benchmark by over 2% and recording a nearly 42% increase for the entire year [2][3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun continued to reduce holdings in the liquor sector, albeit at a slower pace compared to Q3 2025, maintaining a near 10% position in leading liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - Significant reductions were also noted in pharmaceutical and media stocks, with JD Health seeing a cut of about half in holdings, alongside Tencent Holdings and Focus Media [5][6][7] Group 4 - In overseas investments, Samsung Electronics replaced Tencent Holdings as the top holding in the E Fund Asia Select, with Zhang Kun opting to take profits as stock prices surged [6][7][8] Group 5 - Zhang Kun expressed a strong belief in the future of domestic consumption, arguing that current consumer weakness is not a permanent state and will improve, supported by government goals for income growth and stabilization of housing prices [8][9][10] - He emphasized that a robust domestic consumption market is crucial for technological innovation, suggesting that increased consumer spending will benefit domestic AI companies and accelerate their development [10][11][12] - Zhang Kun remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Chinese consumption and economic growth, viewing current market valuations of quality companies as attractive for long-term investors [10][11][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in the heavy allocation ratio of A-share media stocks by public funds, with a concentration decline [4] - The report highlights a shift in fund allocation towards the news publishing sector, while gaming and advertising sectors saw reductions [4] - The report suggests continued focus on segments with favorable market conditions and AI industry logic, particularly in gaming and IP derivatives [4] Summary by Sections A-share Media Fund Heavy Allocation Ratio Decline - In Q4 2025, the heavy allocation ratio for A-share media stocks was 1.32%, down from 2.56% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points [13] - For A+H shares, the allocation ratio was 4.41%, down from 5.99%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [13] Changes in Fund Allocation by Sector - The gaming sector's allocation decreased from 67.34% in Q3 2025 to 65.20% in Q4 2025, a drop of 2.14 percentage points [27] - The advertising sector's allocation fell from 24.35% to 22.41%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points [27] - The news publishing sector saw an increase in allocation from 1.93% to 6.29%, an increase of 4.35 percentage points [27] Concentration of A-share Media Heavy Holdings - The top five heavy holdings in the A-share media sector accounted for 78.48% of the total heavy holdings value, down 6.57 percentage points [42] - The top ten heavy holdings accounted for 88.04%, down 4.93 percentage points [42] Hong Kong Internet Sector Fund Holdings - In Q4 2025, companies like DaMai Entertainment and Meituan-W saw increased holdings, while Kuaishou-W and Pop Mart experienced reductions [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on segments with favorable market conditions and AI applications, particularly in gaming and long video sectors [4]

公司公告《关于计提长期股权投资资产减值准备的公告》：1）25Q4，公司联营公司数禾科技按权益法 计提的亏损金额约为3.76 亿元；2）截止2025 年底，数禾的长期股权投资账面价值29.44 亿元，公司将 以7.91 亿元的对价完全退出，拟计提资产减值准备21.53 亿元。根据公告，两者合计将减少2025 年四季 度归母净利润约25.29 亿元。3）公司已收到交易首付款4.04 亿元，预计26Q1 将数禾投资相关的资本公 积5.65 亿元转入当期投资收益。 分红金额、梯媒主业及主业现金流不受影响。资产减值损失属于非经不影响扣非净利润，公司此前公告 2024-2026 年分红不低于扣非净利润的80%。我们假设分红金额等于2024 年末47.6 亿，股息率4.43% （对应1 月23 日收盘价），是分众估值的重要支撑。基本面稳健，我们预计AI 应用投放竞争激烈有望 对2026 年收入有明显正贡献，此外持续跟踪：1）并购和成本端变化；2）互联网及AI 产品增投；3） 支付宝碰一碰等。 维持"买入"评级。考虑分众传媒并购新潮传媒的交易方案尚需审批，消费低迷以及减值影响，我们下调 2025 年-2027 年收入预测至1 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.44 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 8.76/6.21 | | 市净率 | 6.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.11 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-23 02-23 03-23 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01-23 分众传媒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 联系人 上证指数/深证成指 4,136.16/14,439.66 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 1.14 | | 资产 ...