Core Viewpoint - The articles highlight the strong performance and growth potential of various companies in the tungsten industry, driven by rising tungsten prices and increasing demand across multiple sectors such as aerospace, military, and renewable energy. Company Summaries - **China Tungsten High-Tech (000657)**: A leading player in the tungsten industry with a complete value chain from mining to manufacturing, benefiting from high self-sufficiency and significant profit elasticity due to rising tungsten prices. The company is positioned well in high-end manufacturing and military applications [1]. - **Xiamen Tungsten (600549)**: A comprehensive new materials leader with a strong presence in tungsten, rare earths, and lithium battery materials. The company is a major APT producer and benefits from dual market demand in tungsten and rare earths, with a clear long-term growth trajectory [2]. - **Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378)**: A private sector leader in the tungsten industry with a complete production system and high resource self-sufficiency. The company is well-positioned in high-end tungsten markets and is expected to see steady profit growth due to rising demand and supply constraints [3]. - **Xianglu Tungsten (002842)**: Focused on deep processing of tungsten, the company has a strong customer base and benefits from rising processing fees alongside tungsten prices. Future growth is expected through technological upgrades and high utilization rates [4]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: A global mining leader with significant tungsten operations, benefiting from high-quality overseas resources and a diversified metal portfolio. The company is expected to see profit growth as tungsten supply-demand dynamics improve [5]. - **Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259)**: A state-owned enterprise with a focus on tungsten and rare earths, benefiting from dual price increases and strong resource integration capabilities. Future growth is anticipated through expanding resource reserves and high-end applications [6][7]. - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: A key mining platform in Hunan with a stable tungsten production and high resource self-sufficiency. The company benefits from rising prices across multiple metals, providing a unique advantage in the small metals sector [8]. - **Antai Technology (000969)**: A leader in high-end refractory metals, focusing on high-value tungsten products for semiconductor and aerospace applications. The company is expected to grow through increased domestic demand and technological advancements [9]. - **Jinmo Co., Ltd. (601958)**: A leading player in the molybdenum industry with significant tungsten operations, benefiting from low-cost resources and a complete production chain. The company is expected to see profit elasticity as tungsten prices rise [10]. - **Dongfang Tantalum (000962)**: A leader in rare metals with a strong tungsten processing capability, benefiting from stable demand in military and aerospace sectors. Future growth is expected from increasing domestic production of high-end tungsten products [11]. - **Xingye Mining (000426)**: A multi-metal mining company with significant tungsten resources, benefiting from price increases and a diversified portfolio that mitigates risks [12]. - **Zhuye Group (600961)**: A veteran in non-ferrous metal smelting with advantages in tungsten recycling and processing. The company is expected to see profit improvements through expanded processing capacity and technological upgrades [13]. - **Zhongkuang Resources (002738)**: A leader in lithium and rare metals with stable tungsten production, benefiting from price increases and a diversified business model [14]. - **Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240)**: A lithium leader with significant tungsten resources, providing stable profits and enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [15]. - **Huayou Cobalt (603799)**: A global leader in cobalt and lithium materials, with a strong tungsten business that supports overall profitability through market synergies [16]. - **Hanrui Cobalt (300618)**: Focused on cobalt and tungsten processing, benefiting from rising demand in high-end manufacturing and renewable energy sectors [17]. - **Xiamen Xinda (000701)**: Engaged in tungsten product trading and supply chain services, benefiting from price increases and a mature supply chain system [18]. - **Aluminum Corporation of China (601600)**: A leader in the non-ferrous sector with a focus on tungsten resource development, benefiting from market dynamics and resource value reassessment [19]. - **Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960)**: A global leader in tin with a strong tungsten portfolio, benefiting from price increases and a comprehensive multi-metal strategy [20]. - **Nanshan Aluminum (600219)**: A leading aluminum processor with a focus on tungsten-related materials, expected to grow through high-end manufacturing demand [21].

截至发稿，邓翔累计任职时间1年316天，现任基金资产总规模2.31亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 52.16%， 任职期间最差基金回报4.83%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，华富基金旗下1只基金重仓盛新锂能。华富策略精选混合A（410006）四季度持有股数2.98万 股，占基金净值比例为3.94%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约5.36万元。 华富策略精选混合A（410006）成立日期2008年12月24日，最新规模1756.76万。今年以来收益1.72%， 同类排名7030/8884；近一年收益42.38%，同类排名2209/8127；成立以来收益122.23%。 华富策略精选混合A（410006）基金经理为邓翔。 2月11日，盛新锂能涨5.06%，截至发稿，报37.37元/股，成交8.14亿元，换手率2.45%，总市值342.05亿 元。 资料显示，盛新锂能集团股份有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery supply chain has experienced significant price increases from 2020 to 2022, driven by strong demand and a smooth transmission of price hikes across the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolyte prices started at 70,000 CNY/ton in September 2020, rising to 100,000 CNY/ton by the end of the year, and reaching a peak of 580,000 CNY/ton in February 2022, with long-term contract prices stabilizing between 200,000 to 300,000 CNY/ton [2][3]. - Iron lithium cathode prices, including phosphoric acid iron and processing fees, doubled in 2021, peaking at over 40,000 CNY/ton by the end of that year [2][3]. - Anode prices began to rise in Q3 2021 due to graphite production constraints, increasing from 12,000 CNY/ton to a high of 25,000 to 28,000 CNY/ton by Q2 2022 [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low of 40,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2020 to 50,000 CNY/ton in early 2021, and surged to 300,000 CNY/ton by the end of 2021, eventually reaching 520,000 CNY/ton by February 2022 [2][3]. - The battery sector has effectively transmitted raw material price increases, with battery prices rising by 1 cent/wh in Q1 2021 and accelerating to 2-3 cents/wh in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, reaching over 1 CNY/wh [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Current market conditions resemble Q4 2020, with expectations for continued price increases due to strong demand and low profitability levels compared to previous years [3]. - The industry's expansion willingness is significantly lower than in 2021, with limited new supply expected by 2026, suggesting a more stable price environment [3]. - The anticipated price increases are not expected to be as dramatic as in 2021, with supply-demand tightness projected to be lower, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current valuation of leading companies is considered reasonable, with expected industry growth of 20% in 2027, suggesting potential for investment in the battery sector, including companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [4]. - Material leaders such as Keda Lithium and others are also highlighted as strong investment opportunities, alongside companies in the lithium carbonate sector [4]. - The solid-state battery sector is recommended for investment, particularly with catalysts expected to materialize in Q4 2025 [4].

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂期货价格呈现大幅减仓下降态势。展望后市，春节前夕碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将暂无，整体 以降低波动率为主；而节后则将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂资源释放进度、供需两端的检修排产情况、终端新 能源汽车的产销情况，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，当前国内可售锂精矿库存暂时平稳。国内江西锂矿事件的进展，建议市场参与者通过政府官网关注 安评和环许的公示和进展，规避不实信息误导下的非理性决策行为。供给端，部分锂盐厂停产检修时间安排 在春节前后，后面需关注春节后复产情况；需求端，当前春节前下游补库已经结束，市场主要焦点在于新能 源汽车的产销情况，建议后续持续关注。 技术面，碳酸锂期货的历史波动率再创历史新高，隐含波动率处于下降态势，预计后续波动率大幅回落可能 性持续存在；下方关注12万左右的支撑位。 综合研判，春节前下游补库备货情况已结束，而春节长假期间不确定性因素较多，因此建议在春节前夕逐步 降低仓位，以轻仓或空仓状态过节，规避长假持仓风险。同时，当前碳酸锂期货市场波动率处于历史高位， 波动率进一步上行空间有限，建议关注卖波动率策略的布局机会。 中长期维度，储能 ...

Core Insights - The report introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that integrates multiple factors affecting stock price performance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than relying on a single indicator [3][9] - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in this framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns for the top scoring group at 11.8% compared to -10.5% for the lowest scoring group [21][23] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors for February, particularly in high valuation industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers [3][34] Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework - The framework consists of five dimensions: market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation, with subjective judgments applied to market style, liquidity, and valuation [9][12] - The scoring process involves adjusting weights based on market conditions, with equal weighting during non-earnings seasons and increased emphasis on fundamentals during earnings seasons [8][30] February Market Outlook - The report anticipates a growth-oriented market style for February, with expectations of net inflows from public funds and a focus on high valuation sectors [3][34] - Key industries identified for investment include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [34][35] Industry Recommendations - **Electronics and Communications**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ShenNan Circuit are highlighted for their strong positions in AI-related markets and expected growth in demand for high-end products [36] - **Power Equipment**: Firms such as Shenghong Co. and Yangguang Electric are recommended due to their potential benefits from overseas storage and AI power sectors [40] - **High-End Manufacturing**: Companies like Anpeilong and Jingjin Equipment are noted for their advancements in robotics and AI applications, with significant growth potential [42] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices and strategic stockpiling initiatives [46][47] - **Computers**: Firms such as Hikvision and Kingsoft are recognized for their strong AI capabilities and market positioning, with expectations for sustained growth [49][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment remains volatile, leading to increased volatility in the commodity market. Short-term demand for replenishment supports prices after a correction in lithium carbonate futures. In the medium term, supply constraints and rising costs at the mining level maintain an upward price trend for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, with limited downside potential despite price corrections, and the market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. Lithium carbonate prices have significantly corrected, with downstream purchasing concentrated on replenishment. Futures contracts saw a weekly decline of 10.25% to 133,900 CNY/ton for the Wuxi 2605 contract and 10.92% to 132,000 CNY/ton for the Guangxi 2605 contract. Lithium concentrate prices were reported at 1,880 USD/ton, down 90 USD from the previous week [9][14] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include support for rural consumption expansion, particularly in new energy vehicles and smart home appliances, as outlined in the 2026 Central Document No. 1. Tian Tie Technology announced its subsidiary completed high-tech enterprise re-certification. Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining for 1.2597 billion CNY to enhance lithium supply security [18] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - January production of domestic lithium carbonate increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The inventory showed structural adjustments [19][23]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing lithium resource battle at the beginning of 2026 will see winners not only among the largest players with the most mines but also among those who can transform resource endowments into sustainable competitive advantages through excellent operations, technological breakthroughs, and strategic collaboration [1] Group 1: Capital Operations and Mergers - In early 2026, major lithium companies initiated a series of capital operations focused on resource control, with Tianqi Lithium announcing a fundraising and asset disposal plan to raise approximately 71 billion yuan [2][6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that Tianqi Lithium's fundraising could significantly increase the likelihood of subsequent mergers and acquisitions, despite potential dilution risks exceeding 6% [2] - Shengxin Lithium completed the acquisition of the remaining equity in Huirong Mining for 1.26 billion yuan, fully integrating the Sichuan Muroong lithium mine into its portfolio [3][8] Group 2: Strategic Resource Acquisition - Salt Lake Co. announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, enhancing its core resource layout in lithium extraction [3][9] - Shengxin Lithium and Zhongxin Innovation signed a framework agreement for deep cooperation, committing to purchase 200,000 tons of lithium salt products from Shengxin Lithium between 2026 and 2030 [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategic Logic - The series of financing and acquisition actions reflect a common logic: betting on the "certainty" of resource supply amid the uncertainties of fluctuating lithium prices and geopolitical risks [4] - Tianqi Lithium's strategy emphasizes securing resources to stabilize operations during price downturns and capitalize during peaks, moving away from reliance on price speculation [11][12] - The pursuit of low-cost, high-grade resources is seen as a stabilizing factor during market cycles, with Tianqi Lithium's operations achieving significantly lower cash costs compared to industry averages [12] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Concerns regarding development costs and efficiency arise as mining depths increase, potentially affecting ore grades and recovery rates [17] - The pressure of rising costs due to stricter environmental regulations and labor costs poses significant challenges to resource development [17] - The complexity of overseas operations, including regulatory and community relationship risks, presents additional uncertainties for companies aiming for global expansion [19]

Core Viewpoint - Longyan boss Yao Xiongjie is making significant moves in the lithium industry through the acquisition of Huirong Mining, aiming for full ownership to enhance resource supply stability and reduce reliance on imports [2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to invest 1.26 billion yuan to acquire the remaining 13.9% stake in Huirong Mining, valuing the target at 9 billion yuan [2]. - Prior to this transaction, Shengxin Lithium Energy's subsidiaries held 15.1% and 70.97% stakes in Huirong Mining, respectively [2]. - Upon completion of the acquisition, Shengxin Lithium Energy will fully control Huirong Mining [2]. Group 2: Financial Overview - The total assets of Huirong Mining as of August 31, 2025, are approximately 9.02 billion yuan, with total liabilities of about 1.77 billion yuan, resulting in a net asset value of around 7.25 billion yuan [7]. - For the first eight months of 2025, Huirong Mining reported a net loss of approximately 162.63 million yuan, while the previous year showed a profit of 14.43 million yuan [7]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy is projected to incur losses between 600 million and 850 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit loss of 600 million to 840 million yuan for the same period [12]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Outlook - The core asset of Huirong Mining is the Muzhong Lithium Mine, which is expected to start production in October 2024, with identified Li2O resources of 989,600 tons and an average grade of 1.62% [5]. - The lithium concentrate price is highly influenced by downstream demand and macroeconomic conditions, which could impact the future profitability of the acquisition [8]. - Management anticipates a rebound in the lithium market starting mid-2025, driven by unexpected growth in global energy storage business, which may improve operational performance [10].

Group 1 - The lithium mining index increased by 3%, with most constituent stocks showing positive performance [1] - Major companies such as Zhongjin Mining, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group, and Zhongkuang Resources saw significant stock price increases of 7.99%, 6.94%, 6.48%, 4.62%, and 4.49% respectively [1]

2026 年 2 月 6 日 碳酸锂：关注商品宏观情绪变化 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 132,780 | -14,440 | -32,040 | -36,000 | -5,160 | 50,580 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 531,724 | 219,827 | 10,390 | 67,327 | 227,487 | 456,982 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 329,777 | -30,1 ...