农林学文 主 2025 年 12 月 08 日 站玩人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价继续震荡走弱, 亏损 能去化提速 – 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 看好 相关研究 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 ● (16.2%)、平潭发展 (10.6%)、西王食品 (10.3%)、生物股份 (9.7%)、福建金森 (9.4%)，跌幅前五名：绿康生化（-10.1%）、ST 天山（-8.9%）、*ST 傲农（-6.5%） 中水 渔业 (-6.5%)、益生股份 (-5.3%)。 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化 ...

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Group 1 - The average price of live pigs in China is 11.63 yuan/kg as of November 29, showing a decline of 1.11% compared to the previous weekend, with the industry facing a loss of 111 yuan per head for nine consecutive weeks [1] - The price of weaned piglets at 7 kg is 209 yuan per head, with an average loss of approximately 81 yuan per head for exported piglets this week [1] - The average slaughter weight this week is 129.22 kg, with a slight increase of 0.41 kg week-on-week, while the average slaughter weight for smallholders is at a high of 145.17 kg [1] Group 2 - The demand side shows an increase in daily slaughter volume by 3.39% week-on-week, driven by northern slaughterhouses responding to low pig prices and the onset of seasonal consumption in southern markets [1] - There are sporadic outbreaks of pig diseases in certain regions due to cooler weather, with the proportion of pigs under 90 kg in total slaughter increasing to 4.83%, up by 0.34% from last week [1] - The agricultural team emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pig sector's capacity reduction due to production cuts, losses in farming, and disease interference, suggesting that capacity may continue to decrease [1] Group 3 - As of December 3, 2025, the CSI Livestock Breeding Index shows significant gains for several stocks, including Luoniushan up by 9.98% and Yike Foods up by 3.36% [2] - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.6% of the index, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs leading the list [2]

一、非独立董事辞任 证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-071 福建圣农发展股份有限公司 关于非独立董事变更为职工代表董事的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 9 月 3 日召开 2025 年第二次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于修订<公司章程>的议案》、《关 于修订公司部分内部治理制度的议案》。鉴于公司不再设置监事会，根据修订后 的《公司章程》规定，公司董事会设置职工代表董事 1 人，由公司职工代表大会 选举产生。 董 事 会 二○二五年十二月二日 附件：席军先生简历 公司于 2025 年 12 月 1 日收到公司非独立董事席军先生的辞呈，根据有关规 定，结合工作需要，席军先生申请辞去第七届董事会非独立董事职务。根据《中 华人民共和国公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定，席军先生的辞职报告自送达 公司董事会时生效，除辞任非独立董事职务外，席军先生担任的公司其他职务不 变，其辞任不会导致公司董事会成员低于法定人数，其本次职务变动系由非独立 董事变更为职工董事 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

Group 1 - The livestock sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) rising, and key stocks such as Jinxinnong (002548) and Yisheng (002458) showing significant gains [1] - Major pig farming companies are expanding into Southeast Asia, indicating a trend of overseas expansion among leading enterprises like Muyuan, New Hope, and Haida [1] - The market is at a critical point of capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with potential improvements in supply-demand relationships expected by mid-2026 if capacity reduction targets are met [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with companies like Muyuan (002714) and Wens (300498) being the most significant contributors [3] - The overall capital expenditure of listed pig farming companies is stabilizing and slightly decreasing, as many firms are halting capacity expansion projects due to narrowing profits and cash flow pressures [2] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in feed, pharmaceuticals, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-069 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏。 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年10月28日召开第七届董事会第十六次会议，审 议通过《关于＜公司2025年限制性股票激励计划（草案）＞及其摘要的议案》等相关议案。具体内容详 见公司2025年10月29日披露于指定信息披露媒体和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的相关公告。 根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）和《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指南第1号——业务办理》（以下简称"《自律监管指南第1号》"）等有关法律、法规及规范性文件的 相关规定，公司对激励计划采取了充分的保密措施，对本次激励计划的内幕信息知情人进行了必要的登 记。经向中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司（以下简称"中登深圳公司"）查询，公司对本次激 励计划内幕信息知情人及激励对象在激励计划首次公开披露前6个月内（即2025年4月28日至2025年10月 28日）买卖 ...

证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-069 福建圣农发展股份有限公司 关于 2025 年限制性股票激励计划内幕信息知情人 与激励对象买卖公司股票的自查报告 3、公司向中登深圳分公司就核查对象在自查期间买卖公司股票的情况进行 了查询确认，中登深圳分公司出具了《信息披露义务人持股及股份变更查询证明》 和《股东股份变更明细清单》。 二、核查对象买卖公司股票的情况说明 根据中登深圳分公司出具的《信息披露义务人持股及股份变更查询证明》和 《股东股份变更明细清单》，在自查期间，核查对象买卖公司股票情况如下： （一）内幕信息知情人买卖股票的情况 在自查期间，本激励计划的内幕信息知情人均不存在买卖公司股票的情况。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 10 月 28 日召 开第七届董事会第十六次会议，审议通过《关于<公司 2025 年限制性股票激励计 划（草案）>及其摘要的议案》等相关议案。具体内容详见公司 2025 年 10 月 29 日披露于指定信息披露媒体和巨潮资讯网（ww ...