Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][62]. Core Views - The swine sector is undergoing deepening regulation, with a focus on value reassessment opportunities. The report suggests that the price of pigs may face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply, but regulatory measures are expected to stabilize prices in the long run [1][16]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to improve, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [2][27]. - The animal health sector is seeing a potential improvement in competitive dynamics, particularly with the progress of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions [3][35]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market expected to continue its rapid growth [9][55]. Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is in a regulatory phase aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows is stable at 40.38 million heads [15][16]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][16]. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of improvement, with a total of 80.33 thousand sets of breeding stock updated in the first three quarters of 2025. The report highlights a shift towards self-breeding, with self-bred stock accounting for 59% [2][27]. - Recommended companies in this sector are Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [2][27]. Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry. The report notes that clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are underway, which could lead to commercialization [3][35]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipu Biological, with additional focus on Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Biological, and others [3][35]. Planting - The report indicates a declining pig-to-grain price ratio, with the current ratio at 4.95. The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn priced at 2181 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][44]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. The report notes a year-on-year increase in industrial feed production [45][46]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [45][46]. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The report highlights the increasing consumption per pet, with dogs averaging 2961 yuan and cats 2020 yuan annually [55][56]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with Ruipu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][55].

买入（维持） 收入保持较快增长 公 海大集团（002311）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 10 月 20 日 投资要点： 司 点 农林牧渔行业 事件：公司发布了2025年三季报。公司2025年前三季度实现总营业收入960.94 亿元，同比增长13.24%；实现归母净利润41.42亿元，同比增长14.31%；实现 扣非后归母净利润41.77亿元，同比增长18.71%。业绩符合预期。 评 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340513040002 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 点评： 投资建议：预计公司2025—2026年EPS分别为3.07元和3.47元，对应PE 分别为20倍和18倍。公司是国内饲料龙头，持续推进核心能力建设、规 模扩张及国际化战略，竞争优势有望不断增强。维持对公司的"买入" 评级。 风险提示：竞争加剧、原材料价格波动、汇率波动、国际化战略推进不 及预期等风险。 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq. ...

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group (002311) announced on October 20 that it has a well-established capacity layout for livestock and poultry feed, and the company plans to expand its capacity using a light asset model [1] Group 1 - The company has a comprehensive capacity layout for livestock and poultry feed [1] - Future expansion will focus on a light asset model [1]

证券日报网讯海大集团（002311）10月20日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，截至目前，公司 资产负债率按计划逐步下降。未来，公司将根据实际经营情况以更丰富的利润分配方式回馈股东。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in overseas feed sales, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% in the first half of the year [1] - The company has established a stable development in existing regions and is actively exploring new areas for growth [1] - The positive growth trend from the first half of the year is expected to continue into the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported an increase in feed production capacity utilization year-on-year, attributed to strong growth in feed sales [1] Group 1 - The company, Haida Group, announced on October 20 that its feed sales have shown good growth [1] - The increase in feed sales has positively impacted the company's feed production capacity utilization rate [1]

证券日报网讯海大集团（002311）10月20日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，公司三季度饲料 销量延续上半年良好的增长态势。公司将紧咬战略目标——2030年达到5150万吨销售总量，稳步提升国 内产能利用率和市场份额，进一步加快海外饲料业务的拓展。 ...

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 2.12% on October 20, with Hai Da Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hai Da Group's stock price fell by 6.02% to 57.41, with a trading volume of 201,400 shares and a total transaction value of 1.174 billion [2] - Tianma Technology and Guai Bao Pet Products also saw declines of 3.82% and 2.12%, respectively [2] - Other notable stocks in the feed sector included Baiyang Co., which rose by 1.86%, and Boen Group, which increased by 1.80% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 80.8455 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 118 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that major stocks like Dabeinong and Aonong Biological experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3]

Core Insights - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that Haida Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 reached 4.14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with Q3 profit growth slowing due to losses in the pig farming business [1][2] - The company has announced a plan for a spin-off listing, focusing on deepening its development in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's feed sales amounted to approximately 14.7 million tons (including 1.05 million tons of domestic sales), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25% [1] - The external sales of feed increased by approximately 2.84 million tons, with poultry feed external sales up 24%, pig feed external sales up 43%, and aquatic feed external sales up 16% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The company aims for a total external feed sales increase of over 5 million tons for the entire year, with overseas feed sales expected to maintain a high growth rate of 40% [2] - Projections for external feed sales from 2025 to 2027 are 29.53 million tons, 32.46 million tons, and 35.67 million tons, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.9%, 9.9%, and 9.9% respectively [2] - The expected number of pigs slaughtered is 6.48 million heads for 2025 and 2026, and 6.8 million heads for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 0%, and 5% respectively [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve main business revenues of 141.48 billion yuan, 159.84 billion yuan, and 181.16 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.5%, 13.0%, and 13.3% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.01 billion yuan, 5.80 billion yuan, and 6.22 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 15.7%, and 7.3% respectively [2] - The previous estimates for net profit in 2025, 2026, and 2027 were 5.16 billion yuan, 5.50 billion yuan, and 5.91 billion yuan, with the downward adjustment mainly due to changes in feed sales, feed profit per ton, pig slaughter volume, and pig price expectations [2]

Core Insights - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 0.5% and a trading volume of 997,400 yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 207 million yuan [1] - Notable performers among constituent stocks include Hainan Rubber, Ronniu Mountain, and Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, with increases of 3.7%, 3.63%, and 3.0% respectively [1] - Conversely, Haida Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tianma Technology experienced declines of 3.34%, 2.91%, and 2.61% respectively [1] - The Northeast Animal Husbandry Expo has been officially renamed and focuses on industry innovation and resource integration, while the 14th World Pig Industry Expo opened on October 18 in Changsha, covering 100,000 square meters and attracting over 800 global enterprises [1] - Dongguan Securities reported that pig prices have fallen to 11.17 yuan/kg, leading to continuous losses in breeding profits, with an average loss of 244.7 yuan per self-breeding pig [1] - The number of breeding sows remains high at 40.38 million, indicating significant future capacity reduction potential [1] - In poultry farming, the average price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, but breeding profits have marginally improved to -2.03 yuan per bird [1] - The industry valuation is at a PB of 2.85 times, which is at the historical 63.8% percentile, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is experiencing supply pressure release, with prices continuing to decline; self-breeding and purchased piglet farming are both operating at losses of 244.70 yuan and 375.29 yuan per head respectively [2] - Under policy guidance, capacity reduction may accelerate, with a slight decrease in the number of breeding sows in September [2] - In poultry farming, the outbreak of avian influenza overseas creates uncertainty in the breeding of grandparent chickens, which is beneficial for the white feather chicken industry chain prices [2] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to bottom out, with year-on-year changes in vaccine approvals for roundworms and pseudorabies at -17% and -11% respectively [2] - The seed industry is focusing on the progress of biological breeding expansion, the promotion of genetically modified corn, and industry mergers and acquisitions [2] - Pet food exports are minimally affected by tariff disturbances, while domestic sales continue to grow rapidly, with a 3% increase in e-commerce platform sales in September [2] - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) and its linked funds passively track the agricultural and livestock index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope Liuhe, Meihua Holdings, Dabeinong Technology, Shennong Development, Bio-Stock, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [2]