Core Insights - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 0.5% and a trading volume of 997,400 yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 207 million yuan [1] - Notable performers among constituent stocks include Hainan Rubber, Ronniu Mountain, and Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, with increases of 3.7%, 3.63%, and 3.0% respectively [1] - Conversely, Haida Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tianma Technology experienced declines of 3.34%, 2.91%, and 2.61% respectively [1] - The Northeast Animal Husbandry Expo has been officially renamed and focuses on industry innovation and resource integration, while the 14th World Pig Industry Expo opened on October 18 in Changsha, covering 100,000 square meters and attracting over 800 global enterprises [1] - Dongguan Securities reported that pig prices have fallen to 11.17 yuan/kg, leading to continuous losses in breeding profits, with an average loss of 244.7 yuan per self-breeding pig [1] - The number of breeding sows remains high at 40.38 million, indicating significant future capacity reduction potential [1] - In poultry farming, the average price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, but breeding profits have marginally improved to -2.03 yuan per bird [1] - The industry valuation is at a PB of 2.85 times, which is at the historical 63.8% percentile, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is experiencing supply pressure release, with prices continuing to decline; self-breeding and purchased piglet farming are both operating at losses of 244.70 yuan and 375.29 yuan per head respectively [2] - Under policy guidance, capacity reduction may accelerate, with a slight decrease in the number of breeding sows in September [2] - In poultry farming, the outbreak of avian influenza overseas creates uncertainty in the breeding of grandparent chickens, which is beneficial for the white feather chicken industry chain prices [2] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to bottom out, with year-on-year changes in vaccine approvals for roundworms and pseudorabies at -17% and -11% respectively [2] - The seed industry is focusing on the progress of biological breeding expansion, the promotion of genetically modified corn, and industry mergers and acquisitions [2] - Pet food exports are minimally affected by tariff disturbances, while domestic sales continue to grow rapidly, with a 3% increase in e-commerce platform sales in September [2] - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) and its linked funds passively track the agricultural and livestock index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope Liuhe, Meihua Holdings, Dabeinong Technology, Shennong Development, Bio-Stock, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd. held a performance briefing on October 18-19, 2025, attracting participation from 172 institutions, including Cephei Capital Management (Hong Kong) Limited [1] - The company reported a strong performance for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 96.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.142 billion yuan, up 14.31% year-on-year [1] Business Highlights and Spin-off Dynamics - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary Haid Holdings for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with ongoing restructuring of relevant subsidiaries to enhance global competitiveness and market influence [2] - The company aims for a total feed sales target of 51.5 million tons by 2030, with a focus on increasing domestic capacity utilization and market share while expanding overseas [3] - The overseas feed sales saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% in the first half of the year, with continued growth in the third quarter [3] - The company is shifting towards a light-asset expansion model for poultry feed production, while the aquaculture sector is expected to maintain profitability or break-even in most species [3] - The spin-off is intended to enhance international influence, broaden financing channels, and improve overall value and capital structure [3]

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 96.094 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.24% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 4.142 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.31% [1] Spin-off Plans - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Haida Holdings, for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Prior to the spin-off, the company will restructure the equity of its overseas subsidiaries related to feed, seedlings, and animal health products under Haida Holdings [1] - This spin-off is a strategic move to enhance the company's international influence and global market competitiveness, aligning with the national "Belt and Road" initiative [1] Strategic Goals - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 51.5 million tons of feed by 2030, focusing on increasing domestic capacity utilization and market share while expanding overseas [2] - The overseas feed sales volume is projected to reach 7.2 million tons by 2030, with the spin-off expected to accelerate this growth [3] Operational Insights - The company reported a 40% year-on-year increase in overseas feed sales in the first half of the year, maintaining strong growth into the third quarter [2] - The feed production capacity utilization has improved due to strong sales growth [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to adopt a light asset model for future expansion in livestock feed production, rather than relying primarily on acquisitions [2] - The overall cost of pig farming is expected to continue improving as the company focuses on team capability building and innovative asset-light models [3] - The company anticipates that most aquaculture species will maintain profitability or break-even next year, despite some external impacts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group continues to show growth in operating performance despite a challenging market environment, demonstrating resilience and strong financial health [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Haida Group achieved operating revenue of 96.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of over 4.1 billion yuan, up 14.31% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.504 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.34% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous quarters [2][5]. - The company reported record highs in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with all key metrics showing double-digit growth [4][5]. Business Segments - Haida Group primarily engages in the production and sale of aquatic and livestock feed, high-quality aquatic animal seedlings, animal health products, and pig farming, with feed being the core business [5][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a historical high in feed sales, reaching approximately 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 25% [6]. Debt and Financial Health - As of September 30, 2025, Haida Group's total interest-bearing debt was 2.123 billion yuan, down from 3.252 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating improved financial health [10]. - The company had cash and cash equivalents of 2.857 billion yuan, sufficient to cover its interest-bearing liabilities, along with approximately 4 billion yuan in financial products [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - Haida Group plans to spin off its subsidiary Haida International Holdings Limited for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to optimize its global layout and enhance international competitiveness [3][12]. - The company is actively seeking growth opportunities overseas, with revenue from international markets reaching 10.935 billion yuan and 14.339 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a feed sales increase of over 5 million tons, with plans for a spin-off listing to support overseas development [4][6] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [3] - The company has established a competitive advantage in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with a focus on feed, seed, and animal health products [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 96.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and a net profit of 4.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [3] - The company’s feed sales volume for the first half of 2025 was approximately 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25% [5] - The company’s projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to grow significantly, with main business revenue reaching 141.48 billion yuan in 2025, 159.84 billion yuan in 2026, and 181.16 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 23.5%, 13.0%, and 13.3% respectively [9] Spin-off and Strategic Focus - The company has announced a plan to spin off its subsidiary, Haida International Holdings, for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which will allow it to focus on overseas market development [6][7] - Post-spin-off, the company will maintain a controlling stake in Haida International Holdings and will concentrate on expanding its operations in Asia (excluding East Asia), Africa, and Latin America [7] Future Projections - The company’s feed sales volume is projected to reach 29.53 million tons in 2025, 32.46 million tons in 2026, and 35.67 million tons in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.9%, 9.9%, and 9.9% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.01 billion yuan in 2025, 5.80 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.22 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 15.7%, and 7.3% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in livestock and feed industries, with a focus on identifying quality companies for investment opportunities [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock segment, is experiencing significant price fluctuations and profitability challenges, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the beef and dairy markets as seasonal demand increases, while also noting the ongoing pressures in the pig farming sector due to price declines [3][4][5][6]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if crop yields decrease significantly [6][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - Current pig prices are in a downward trend, with the average weight of pigs at 128.25 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price drops [3][22]. - The report anticipates continued increases in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further price declines [3][22]. - Long-term prospects remain positive for leading companies in the sector, with recommendations to focus on low-cost producers like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is stabilizing, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing resilience due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction [4][36]. - The report notes that while white feathered chicken prices are under pressure, overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve with a recovery in consumer demand [4][38]. Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise as the consumption season approaches, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [5][42]. - The report indicates that the beef and dairy sectors are currently facing losses, but a recovery is anticipated as demand increases and supply contracts [5][43]. Planting Industry - The planting sector is experiencing price volatility due to new corn harvests and ongoing uncertainties regarding soybean imports [6][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and suggests that a significant reduction in crop production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various feed types [6][62]. - The aquaculture sector is showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing, indicating a potential recovery in this segment [6][62].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haida Group, is planning to spin off its subsidiary, Haida International Holdings, for a public listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its overseas market share and capitalize on growth opportunities in the feed industry amid increasing competition and pressure in the breeding industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Haida Group reported a record revenue of 96.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.142 billion yuan, up 14.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities decreased by 35.79% to 5.017 billion yuan, attributed to increased cash payments for goods and services due to business scale growth [1]. - As of the end of Q3, accounts receivable rose significantly by 141.53% to 5.134 billion yuan, with prepayments increasing by 106.24%, reflecting business scale growth and seasonal demand [1]. Quarterly Insights - In Q3 alone, Haida Group achieved a revenue of 37.263 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates exceeding 12% [2]. - The net profit growth rate for Q3 showed a slowdown year-on-year to 0.34%, while the quarter-on-quarter growth rate improved from 5.76% to 10.89% [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s feed products include various types for livestock and aquaculture, with significant growth in aquaculture feed sales since Q2 2025, driven by improved profitability in aquaculture and a decrease in raw material prices [2]. - Despite a contraction in profitability from pig farming, strong sales growth in aquaculture and domestic pig feed contributed to overall profitability in Q3, with external feed sales estimated to have grown by 15% to 20% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The spin-off of Haida International Holdings is part of a strategy to enhance financing channels and promote overseas business growth, with the company retaining at least 75% ownership for five years post-listing [3]. - Haida Group's overseas revenue reached 8.217 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 15.08% increase, with a 40% rise in external feed sales [3]. Regional Focus - Haida International Holdings will focus on independent operations in Asia (excluding East Asia), Africa, and Latin America, aligning with the company's international development strategy [4]. - Vietnam is identified as the largest overseas market for Haida Group, with projected sales growth of 25% to 30% in 2024, while Indonesia is expected to see over 40% growth [4]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically avoiding the highly competitive East Asian aquaculture feed market, targeting relatively untapped markets in Africa and Latin America, which present lower competition levels compared to domestic markets [5]. - As of the latest closing date, Haida Group's stock price was 61.09 yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 27.32% and a total market capitalization of 101.6 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The first pet Double Eleven sales report has been released, indicating potential catalysts for the sector [1][12] - The trend of domestic substitution and premiumization in the pet food market remains strong, with most top brands being domestic [2][13] - The current valuation of pig farming is relatively low, with opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies [3][15] - The poultry market shows mixed signals, with white feather chicken prices declining while yellow feather chicken prices are increasing [15][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [15] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - The top ten brands in the pet food sector are predominantly domestic, with high-end brands like Xianlang and Fregate leading the sales [2][13] - The Double Eleven event is ongoing, with expectations for new product launches and sales data to be closely monitored [14] Pig Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 10.98 yuan/kg, down 3.6% from last week [3][16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.03 yuan/kg, down 2.4% [16][24] - Self-breeding pig farming shows a loss of 244.7 yuan per head, indicating a decrease in profitability [20][21] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1%, while chicken product prices average 8.6 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [15][34] - The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 2.2% to 3.29 yuan each [15][30] - Yellow feather chicken prices have shown a 1.9% increase, suggesting seasonal price elasticity opportunities [15][40] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [15] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to continue, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors [15][49] Commodity Prices - Domestic corn prices have decreased by 2.0% to 2263.14 yuan/ton [50] - Soybean meal prices have dropped by 0.7% to 2993.43 yuan/ton [68] - The price of imported fish meal has decreased by 3.7% to 13067.39 yuan/ton [80]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a price increase for various feed products starting from October 18, 2025, due to current raw material market conditions [3][6][40]. Price Adjustment Details - Shrimp feed and loach feed series will increase by 200 yuan per ton [5][19][42]. - Sea bass and yellowfin tuna series will also see a price increase of 200 yuan per ton [5][19][42]. - The price for fish series, including sunfish and California sea bass, will rise by 300 yuan per ton [5][19][42]. - High-end fish feed, including fish苗宝 and other premium series, will increase by 500 yuan per ton [5][19][42]. - Specific products like whale feed will see an increase of 600 yuan per ton [7][22]. Industry Response - Other companies in the industry, such as Tongwei, Aohua, and Hengxing, are expected to follow suit with similar price increases, with some products seeing hikes up to 600 yuan per ton [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and milk markets expected to rise [3] - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, recommending undervalued leading companies in the sector [3] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growth area benefiting from demographic changes [3] - The report suggests that the white chicken market will see a long-term increase in consumption, while yellow chicken may benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise, with the average price on October 17 at 25.73 yuan/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week but up 8.20% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a significant increase in raw milk prices by the end of the year, with the average price at 3.04 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [2] - The pig market is experiencing a price drop, with the average price at 11.10 yuan/kg, down 0.36% week-on-week and 37.32% year-on-year [1][2] Poultry - The white chicken market shows a slight increase in supply, with prices for chicks at 3.24 yuan/bird, up 0.31% week-on-week but down 24.83% year-on-year [1] - The yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with prices for various types of yellow chicken showing mixed trends [1] Feed and Grains - Soybean meal prices are supported by a favorable supply-demand balance, with current prices at 3,010 yuan/ton, up 0.13% week-on-week [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate increase, with current prices at 2,205 yuan/ton, down 1.12% week-on-week but up 1.10% year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3] - Pork: DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, Wen's Food Group, and others [3] - Pet Industry: Guibao Pet, Reap Bio [3] - Feed: Haida Group [3] - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and others [3]