证券日报网讯 1月19日，众生药业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司正按会计准则对全年财务数 据进行积极核算，公司将严格依据信息披露规则及时履行信息披露义务。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Pharmaceutical marks a significant step in the domestic innovative drug sector, with the potential to help Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical overcome challenges in its traditional business and accelerate its innovative drug development [1][2]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Zhongsheng Ruichuang retains all rights to the licensed intellectual property and will be the marketing authorization holder after regulatory approval [2]. - The total payment under the agreement can reach 1 billion RMB, including an upfront payment of 200 million RMB and milestone payments up to 800 million RMB, along with a double-digit sales commission after the product launch [2][5]. - This agreement is seen as a crucial move for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical to enhance its innovative drug platform and commercialize new drugs effectively [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical's traditional business has faced significant pressure due to policies like centralized procurement, with a reported revenue decline of 5.25% in traditional Chinese medicine to 1.318 billion RMB in 2024, and a net loss of 299 million RMB [3]. - Despite a recovery in the third quarter of 2025 with a net profit of 251 million RMB, the company recognizes the need to transform into an innovative pharmaceutical enterprise to break through growth bottlenecks [3]. Group 3: Innovative Drug Development - Zhongsheng Ruichuang, established in 2018, is the core platform for innovative drug research and has successfully brought two innovative drugs to market, with seven additional projects in clinical trials [4]. - The funding from this collaboration will alleviate financial pressure on innovative drug development, supporting ongoing clinical trials for RAY1225 [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The GLP-1 drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with both international and domestic companies intensifying their efforts [6]. - RAY1225's advantages include convenient dosing and safety, with a bi-weekly injection schedule that may enhance patient compliance, although its development progress is not leading compared to competitors [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical's RAY1225 has successfully landed domestic commercialization cooperation, marking a significant phase in its innovative transformation [1] - The company will receive a double-digit sales commission on the net sales of licensed products after they are launched domestically, indicating a strong potential for revenue growth [1] - The report highlights the approval and gradual market penetration of the innovative flu drug, Anladiwei tablets, and emphasizes the promising results of the long-acting GLP-1 RAY1225 injection in Phase II clinical trials, showcasing good efficacy and safety [1] Group 2 - The report suggests continuous monitoring of the product's subsequent development and overseas rights authorization after domestic commercialization [1] - The previous profit forecast is maintained, and the investment rating remains at "Buy," reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) based on its potential for strong performance relative to the benchmark index [11]. Core Insights - The successful licensing agreement for RAY1225 injection with Qilu Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance domestic commercialization prospects [1][3]. - RAY1225 is a GLP-1/GIP dual-target peptide drug with promising pharmacokinetic properties, allowing for bi-weekly administration, and has completed participant enrollment in three Phase III clinical trials [2]. - The partnership with Qilu Pharmaceutical, a major player in the Chinese pharmaceutical market, is anticipated to maximize future commercialization benefits for Zhongsheng [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical are projected at RMB 2.601 billion, RMB 2.978 billion, and RMB 3.449 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 301 million, RMB 395 million, and RMB 508 million [4]. - The expected EPS (diluted) for the same years is projected to be RMB 0.35, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.60, with P/E ratios of 61.17, 46.58, and 36.29 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) based on its strong commercial potential and strategic partnerships [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the successful licensing agreement between Zhongsheng Ruichuang and Qilu Pharmaceutical for the production and commercialization of RAY1225 in China, which is expected to enhance cash flow and maximize future commercialization benefits [2][3]. - RAY1225 is a GLP-1/GIP dual-target peptide drug with promising clinical trial results, showing positive efficacy and safety, with expectations for commercialization by 2027-2028 [2]. - The partnership with Qilu Pharmaceutical, a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company, is seen as a significant advantage for domestic commercialization efforts [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical are estimated at RMB 2.601 billion, RMB 2.978 billion, and RMB 3.449 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 301 million, RMB 395 million, and RMB 508 million [3][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in earnings per share (EPS), forecasting RMB 0.35, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.60 for the same years, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 61.17 to 36.29 [3][4].

核心产品国内商业化合作落地，看好未来 销售潜力 众生药业点评报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张澄(分析师) | 010-58067988 | zhangcheng5@gtht.com | S0880525040130 | | 彭娉(分析师) | 021-23185619 | pengping@gtht.com | S0880525040080 | | 郑琴(分析师) | 021-23219808 | zhengqin@gtht.com | S0880525040108 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 公司核心减重创新药产品 RAY1225 国内商业化权益授予齐鲁制药，合作总包金额 达 10 亿元，再度验证产品临床价值与未来商业化潜力。 投资要点： [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 10.45-26.61 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百 ...

Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) encourages regions with conditions to build global trading platforms for innovative Chinese pharmaceuticals, aiming to facilitate the export of Chinese medical products to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and other countries [2] Drug and Medical Device Approvals - China Medical (600056.SH) announced that its subsidiary Tianfang Pharmaceutical's ibuprofen tablets have passed the consistency evaluation for generic drugs, which will enhance the product's market competitiveness [4] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical announced that its subsidiary has received approval for six new specifications of its polylactic acid facial filler, further expanding its market presence in the regenerative aesthetic product sector [5] Capital Markets - Qingfeng Biotech (Guangzhou) completed a Pre-A round financing of several tens of millions, led by Baiyun Fund, to accelerate AI and laboratory automation development [7] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) signed a licensing agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the production and commercialization of RAY1225 injection, with total payments expected to reach RMB 100 million [8] Industry Events - The NHSA signed agreements with 79 hospitals to conduct pilot evaluations of real-world comprehensive value assessments for medical insurance, aiming to enhance the quality and efficiency of the healthcare system [10] - Aipeng Medical and the Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology established a "Brain-Computer Interface" innovation consortium to focus on non-invasive brain neuroregulation technology [12] - Novo Nordisk's new CEO emphasized that future business expansions will focus on the core needs of diabetes and obesity patients, indicating a strategic shift towards patient-centered approaches [13] Market Trends - Recent reports indicate significant price reductions for weight loss drugs, with prices for Novo Nordisk's products dropping nearly 50% and some specifications of another drug decreasing by around 80%, leading to substantial savings for patients [16]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Qilu Pharmaceutical for the commercialization of the innovative drug RAY1225 represents a significant milestone, enhancing the commercial potential of the product while allowing Zhongsheng to retain all intellectual property rights [1][3]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, Zhongsheng Ruichuang, has entered into a partnership with Qilu Pharmaceutical to commercialize the GLP-1/GIP dual-target receptor agonist RAY1225 injection [1]. - The agreement allows Qilu Pharmaceutical to produce and sell RAY1225 in China, while Zhongsheng retains all rights and interests for the product outside of China [1]. - Zhongsheng will receive a total of up to 1 billion RMB in upfront and milestone payments, including an upfront payment of 200 million RMB and up to 800 million RMB in development and sales milestones [1]. Group 2: Product Advantages - RAY1225 injection is characterized by bi-weekly dosing and high safety, with potential for monthly administration, enhancing patient compliance [2]. - Clinical data from Phase II trials indicate that RAY1225 has good safety and tolerability, with gastrointestinal adverse reactions being mild and occurring at lower rates than competitors [2]. - The product currently targets obesity/overweight and type 2 diabetes, with ongoing Phase III clinical trials and a newly approved indication for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MASH) [2]. Group 3: Market Potential - The global sales of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) reached nearly 55 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations to exceed 150 billion USD by 2031 [3]. - The Chinese GLP-1RA market is projected to grow rapidly, with an estimated market size of 10.5 billion RMB in 2024 and a forecast of 51.5 billion RMB by 2030 [3]. - The collaboration is expected to maximize the domestic commercial value of RAY1225 and reinvest upfront payments into research and development, creating a positive cycle of product development and commercialization [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic commercialization cooperation for RAY1225 has been established, marking a significant phase in the company's innovative transformation [3][4] - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the production and commercialization of RAY1225 in China, retaining all intellectual property rights [4][5] - RAY1225 is a long-acting GLP-1 drug with promising results in clinical trials for weight loss and blood sugar reduction, showing better efficacy and safety compared to similar products [5][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 28.08 billion, 31.23 billion, and 35.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 11.2%, and 12.1% [8][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.05 billion, 3.43 billion, and 3.91 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth of 201.9%, 12.5%, and 14.0% [8][10] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, with a corresponding valuation of 62X, 55X, and 48X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8] Product Development - The innovative drug for influenza, Anladiwei tablets, has been approved for market release, expected to gradually increase in volume [7][8] - The ongoing clinical trials for RAY1225 and the anticipated overseas rights authorization are areas of continued focus for the company [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Insights - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the domestic commercialization of RAY1225 injection, retaining all rights and interests for international markets. The total transaction value is expected to be RMB 1 billion, including an upfront payment of RMB 200 million and milestone payments of up to RMB 800 million [4][5] - The company forecasts a significant growth potential driven by its innovative drug pipeline, maintaining profit estimates for 2025-2027 with expected net profits of RMB 344 million, RMB 381 million, and RMB 425 million respectively, and corresponding EPS of RMB 0.40, RMB 0.45, and RMB 0.50 [4][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections are as follows: RMB 2,611 million for 2023, RMB 2,467 million for 2024, RMB 2,802 million for 2025, RMB 3,154 million for 2026, and RMB 3,540 million for 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of -2.5%, -5.5%, 13.5%, 12.6%, and 12.2% respectively [7][9] - The company expects to achieve a gross margin of approximately 56% and a net margin of around 12% in the coming years, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 9.5% by 2027 [7][9]