证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 06 年 月 日 建筑材料 关注刺激内需政策 2025 年 3 月 28 日至 4 月 3 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 0.28%，其中水 泥（SW）上涨 0.19%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 0.14%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 1.22%，装修建材（SW）下跌 1.31%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益 1.09%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-5.37 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"，在关税超预期环境 下，提振内需是国内经济增长的重要动力，关注后续刺激内需政策。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 3 月地方政府债总发行量 9788.03 亿元，发行金额同 比 2024 年 3 月增长 55.5%，截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 0.41 万 亿元，同比-0.10 万亿元，专项债发行规模 2.43 万亿元，同比+1.35 万亿 元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复的空 间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有望加 快落地，关注龙泉 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [3] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing a marginal improvement in demand due to active second-hand housing transactions, despite a recent decline in the sector [1][11] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects, driven by increased local government bond issuance and fiscal pressure relief [2] - The glass market shows signs of marginal improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass, with price increases being implemented [2] - Cement prices are stabilizing after a period of decline, with short-term price increases expected due to production cuts and rising infrastructure demand [2] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with price recovery anticipated due to increased demand from wind power projects [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From March 21 to March 28, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) declined by 1.82%, with specific declines in cement (1.63%), glass manufacturing (3.49%), fiberglass (1.52%), and renovation materials (1.75%) [1][11] - The sector experienced a net capital outflow of 821 million yuan during this period [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of March 28, 2025, the national cement price index was 393.69 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.57% [15] - Cement output reached 2.905 million tons, up 17.61% from the previous week, with a clinker capacity utilization rate of 60.5% [15] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass was 1306.69 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30% [32] - Inventory levels for float glass decreased by 2.74 million weight boxes compared to the previous week [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with the average price for 2400tex non-alkali winding direct yarn at 3833 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [44] - The electronic yarn market also showed stability, with prices for G75 electronic yarn ranging from 8800 to 9200 yuan/ton [44] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Puhua Co., Ltd. (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 0.25 yuan for 2023 [7] - Qibin Group (Increase) with an EPS forecast of 0.65 yuan for 2023 [7] - China Jushi (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 0.76 yuan for 2023 [7] - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.09 yuan for 2023 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The construction materials industry is entering a peak season, with increasing downstream demand and effective implementation of staggered production, benefiting companies like Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tapai Group [1][7] - The recovery of second-hand housing transactions and government initiatives to boost consumption are expected to drive demand for consumer building materials, recommending companies such as Sankeshu and Weixing New Materials [1][8] - The government's focus on low-altitude economy development presents opportunities for companies like Huase Group and Design Institute [1][8] - Major engineering projects, such as the Yarlung project, are anticipated to commence, benefiting companies like Zhongyan Dadi [1][9] - The domestic demand for automotive coatings is expected to grow due to strong domestic substitution demand, recommending companies like Songji Coatings [1][11] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 11th week of 2025, new home transactions in 30 major cities showed a 2% year-on-year increase, with a total transaction area of 1,733.17 million square meters, up 11% year-on-year [2] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities increased by 42% year-on-year, indicating a robust market [2] Cement Market - The national average cement price rose to 393.86 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase from the previous week, with significant price hikes in East, Central, and Southwest regions [3][24] - The operating load of cement mills increased to 37.12%, reflecting a recovery in demand [32] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement for benefiting from rising cement prices [1][7] - Sankeshu and Weixing New Materials for their strong consumer building materials attributes [1][8] - Huase Group and Design Institute for low-altitude economy opportunities [1][8] - Zhongyan Dadi for potential orders from the Yarlung project [1][9] - Songji Coatings for growth in automotive coatings [1][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the building materials industry, emphasizing price increases and improved shipping conditions as key drivers for growth in 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Price increases are the main theme for the building materials industry in spring 2025, signaling a return to rational competition after a period of aggressive price wars [3][32]. - The cement sector is experiencing price hikes driven by low inventory levels, with a consensus among companies to avoid destructive competition, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [3][11]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing price increases across various categories, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [3][32]. - The fiberglass industry is seeing multiple rounds of price increases, suggesting a recovery in profitability, while the glass sector faces challenges related to construction completions [3][32]. Summary by Sections Cement - Low inventory levels are driving price increases, with significant hikes reported in various regions starting from March 2025 [7][8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to prevent destructive competition, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in profitability [11][12]. - Major companies such as Conch Cement are highlighted for their cost and scale advantages, with profitability expected to improve [18][19]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is improving due to active second-hand housing transactions, which are expected to boost shipments [36][49]. - Price increases in categories like gypsum board and coatings are signaling a shift towards profitability recovery [36][39]. - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [37][40]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a recovery in prices, with electronic yarn and cloth prices showing upward trends [52][53]. - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from new application scenarios and sustained demand growth [53][54]. Glass - The flat glass sector is under pressure due to declining construction completions, necessitating close monitoring of supply-side adjustments [32][49]. - Companies like Qibin Group and South Glass A are recommended for their market positions amid these challenges [32][49].

1 | 4、请问目前行业竞争格局的变化情况？ | | | --- | --- | | 答：近年来，塑料管道行业竞争愈发激烈，头部企业相对稳定，中小型企业愈 | | | 加艰难，行业集中度在逐步提升。 | | | 年公司产品价格体系是否有调整？ | 5、2024 | | 年，公司产品定价总体执行成本加成的原则，零售业务核心产品的价 | 答：2024 | | | 格体系基本保持稳定，局部市场以及部分产品根据竞争状况有调整价格。工程业务 | | 产品价格随行就市，按单定价。 | | | 6、请问公司零售业务的销售通路的变化情况？ | | | 答：公司零售业务的主要销售通道为家装公司、工长（项目经理）和水电工、 | | | | 业主自购。其中一、二线城市以家装公司为主，且占比持续提升，其他区域仍以工 | | 长（项目经理）、水电工和业主自购为主。 | | | 7、请问公司净水业务的进展情况？ | | | 答：公司净水业务尚处于调整优化过程中，2024 | 年重点就组织变革、产品创新、 | | 渠道赋能以及商业模式等方面进行了优化和完善，希望在今年能够见到成效。 | | | 8、请问公司在家装公司渠道的竞争优势有哪些？ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a decline in the Shenyin Wanguo Construction Materials Index by 0.30%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.28% [4][5] - The cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass prices have increased. The national average cement price is 391.17 RMB/ton, down by 0.51% from January 27 [7][14] - The report highlights a significant drop in real estate transactions due to the Spring Festival, with a 71.5% decrease in transaction area [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The Shenyin Wanguo Construction Materials Index fell by 0.30%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.98%, indicating a 2.28% underperformance [5] - The cement index decreased by 0.88%, while the glass and fiberglass index increased by 1.74% [5] Industry Dynamics and Key Sub-industry Tracking - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a total of 5,359 units sold, a decrease of 12,846 units from the previous week, with a transaction area of 56.18 million square meters, down 71.5% [6] - The national cement average price has slightly decreased, with the largest drop in East China at 6.67 RMB/ton [7] - The national average price for float glass increased to 1,347.14 RMB/ton, up by 1.51% from January 27, with the largest increase in South China at 80 RMB/ton [14] Core Investment Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a continued price decline with reduced inventory levels, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market [16] - The glass industry is facing a balance of weak supply and demand, with a slight increase in production expected in 2024 compared to 2023 [16] - The report identifies a positive trend in the plastic pipe, building coatings, and gypsum board sectors, with leading companies likely to increase market share [17] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qibin Group, and Weixing New Materials, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 outlined for each company [18][20]

| | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动类 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 √其他：电话会议 柏瑞投资：刘冠平；中金公司：龚晴、杨茂达、曹筱；中泰证券资管：陈佳玲；远 | | 参与单位名称及人 | 信投资：黄垲锐；信达澳银基金：刘维华；希瓦资产：韩雨蒙；尚诚资管：黄向前； | | | 上汽颀臻资管：沈怡雯；耀之资产：叶祎梦；信璞投资：李蕾；森锦投资：徐作为； | | | 明河投资：杨伊淳；聊塑资管：周岩明；利檀投资：毛志伟；景熙资管：程锋；海 | | | 岸号角私募基金：刘泽；博郁投资：张智珑；仁桥资管：史国财；汇华理财：郄文 | | 员姓名 | 惠；双安资产：周诗琪；Mars Asset：Fan Weiwen；HGNH International Asset | | | Management (SG) PTE.LTD：赵培；Cinda Sinorock Global Portfolio Limited | | | Partnership II：Wang Henry；CEDERBERG CAPITA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - Despite a challenging market environment in 2024, the company achieved relatively stable revenue, with a slight decline of 1.7% year-on-year to 6.27 billion yuan. However, net profit decreased significantly by 33.4% to 955 million yuan due to reduced investment income and increased sales expenses [6][8]. - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience, with a revenue decline much smaller than the 27.7% drop in real estate completions, indicating effective management under pressure [6][8]. - Investment income decreased significantly in 2024, with a notable drop from 140 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023 to a loss of 20 million yuan in the same period of 2024. Increased brand investment and marketing expenses are expected to impact profits in the short term but are seen as beneficial for long-term brand positioning [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.378 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3%. The forecast for 2024 is 6.270 billion yuan, with a slight recovery expected in 2025 at 6.983 billion yuan [2][8]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.432 billion yuan, with a significant drop to 955 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.203 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.429 billion yuan in 2026 [2][8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline from 44.3% in 2023 to 38.5% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 41.7% by 2026 [2][8]. Market Data - As of February 28, 2025, the company's closing price is 11.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of 17.503 billion yuan. The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 for 2024, decreasing to 16 in 2025 and 13 in 2026 [3][6]. - The company has a dividend yield of 7.56%, indicating a strong return on investment for shareholders [3][6].