智通财经7月14日电，赣锋锂业(002460.SZ)公告称，赣锋锂业预计2025年1-6月归属于上市公司股东的净 利润为亏损3亿元-5.5亿元，上年同期亏损7.6亿元。报告期内，锂盐及锂电池产品销售价格持续下跌， 尽管公司电池板块产能有序释放、销售增长，但整体经营业绩仍受到冲击，并计提了存货等相关资产减 值准备。 赣锋锂业：预计上半年净利润亏损3亿元-5.5亿元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

Group 1: Market Performance - The New Energy ETF had an intraday turnover of 1.01%, with a transaction volume of 9.0851 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 37.0205 million yuan over the past week [2] - The New Energy ETF's scale increased by 12.4556 million yuan over the past week, indicating significant growth, with the latest margin buying amount reaching 1.0275 million yuan and the latest margin balance at 24.7413 million yuan [2] - The net value of the New Energy ETF rose by 7.78% over the past six months, with the highest monthly return since inception being 25.07% and the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting for two months with a total increase of 38.44% [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index as of June 30, 2025, include CATL, Sungrow, LONGi Green Energy, China Nuclear Power, Three Gorges Energy, TBEA, EVE Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Tongwei, and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively accounting for 42.81% of the index [5] - Notable stock performances include CATL down by 1.86%, Sungrow down by 2.59%, LONGi Green Energy down by 0.49%, while China Nuclear Power and TBEA saw increases of 1.39% and 1.31% respectively [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [4] - CICC believes that the "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability and market performance, particularly in industries like steel, cement, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, where supply-side clearing is already substantial [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

Group 1 - The report highlights a steady increase in domestic electrification rates and a strong recovery in European sales, with global sales expected to grow by 21% in 2025 and maintain over 15% growth in 2026 [2][3] - In 2025, domestic electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 5.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with an annual growth forecast of 25% [2][5] - The report anticipates a robust demand for lithium batteries, with a revised growth estimate of over 30% in 2025 and nearly 20% in 2026, driven by strong energy storage policies and market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the profitability of the industry has begun to recover slightly, with leading companies starting to expand production in an orderly manner, while smaller firms continue to exit the market [2][3] - The report notes a significant disparity in profitability across different segments of the supply chain, with leading battery manufacturers maintaining high profit levels compared to second-tier manufacturers [2][3] - The solid-state battery technology is highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements expected in sulfide-based materials and core equipment, indicating a rapid acceleration in industrialization [2][3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations emphasize focusing on leading lithium battery companies and those accelerating the industrialization of solid-state technologies, with specific companies identified for potential investment [2][3] - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate price has reached a bottom, making it favorable to invest in companies with quality resources [2][3] - The report identifies several companies in the solid-state battery sector that are expected to benefit from technological advancements and market demand [2][3]

Battery - Shanghai Xiba has completed the design and short-term testing of the first generation high-energy soft-pack solid-state lithium-ion battery, achieving an energy density of 340Wh/kg, exceeding the target of 320Wh/kg [3] - The battery supports a 5C high discharge rate and shows less than 15% capacity degradation at -20℃, making it suitable for eVTOL applications, with a theoretical range of 250-300 kilometers for a 2-ton eVTOL [3] - Guoxuan High-Tech has supplied over 52,000 battery systems for Chery's hybrid and extended-range vehicles in the first half of 2025, covering multiple key models [4] - Ganfeng Lithium has developed a 304Ah square shell lithium iron phosphate solid-state energy storage cell with a cycle life exceeding 4,000 times, demonstrating superior safety and low-temperature performance compared to liquid batteries [6] Materials - A super-large lithium mine has been discovered in Hunan Province, with a reported lithium ore volume of 490 million tons and lithium oxide resources of 1.31 million tons, along with other strategic minerals [10] Overseas - U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on nearly all remaining trade partners that have not yet received tariff notices, starting from August 1 [12]

Group 1: Liquidity and Scale of Rare Metal ETFs - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 3.5%, with a transaction volume of 30.73 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF reached 37.71 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past year, the rare metal ETF's scale increased by 16.82 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest margin buying amount for the rare metal ETF reached 2.08 million yuan, with a margin balance of 21.28 million yuan [3] Group 2: Performance and Returns - As of July 10, the net value of the rare metal ETF increased by 30.36% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 3 months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06% [3] - The average return during the rising months was 7.76% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and Recommendations - The lithium sector is currently in a bottom oscillation phase, with solid-state battery industrialization accelerating and energy storage demand expected to surge [3] - The new energy storage installations are projected to grow by 140% year-on-year in 2024, which may serve as a core catalyst [3] - Companies with strong cost control in lithium extraction from salt lakes and those with overseas resource layouts are recommended for attention [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - The implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations is expected to enhance compliance capacity concentration, with a growth rate of 5.9% in 2024 [4] - The supply-demand gap for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is anticipated to widen starting in 2025, with a focus on light rare earth leading enterprises [4] - The strategic position of rare earths is significant due to U.S. tariff policies, which may positively impact company performance [4] Group 5: Key Stocks in Rare Metal Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, accounting for 54.07% of the total weight [4] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth with a 9.85% increase and Salt Lake Co. with a 0.86% increase [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The high-performance materials industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, market demand, and technological innovation, becoming a crucial pillar for economic stability. The industry is expected to reach a total output value of 8.48 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive years, with a market size projected to be 8.78 trillion yuan [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Classification - High-performance materials are defined as newly emerged materials with superior properties or special functions, or traditional materials that have significantly improved performance or gained new functions. They are essential for extreme environments and high-end applications, primarily used in aerospace, energy, electronics, medical, and defense sectors. The main categories include advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and frontier new materials [1][12]. Group 2: Development Environment and Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to promote the research and development of high-performance materials, recognizing them as a foundational and strategic industry. Key policies include encouraging foreign investment in new materials and prioritizing the development of advanced materials such as graphene and biodegradable materials [5][6]. Group 3: Current Industry Status - The high-performance materials industry in China has evolved from a weak foundation to a robust sector, with expectations for future development to focus on intelligence and sustainability, integrating high technology with emerging industries [7][23]. Group 4: Industry Chain - The industry chain for high-performance materials includes upstream sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, rare earths, petrochemical products, and polymers; midstream focuses on R&D and production; and downstream applications span new information technology, renewable energy, automotive, home appliances, medical, environmental protection, aerospace, and rail transportation [12][14]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by competition among foreign enterprises, large state-owned enterprises, and private companies. Foreign firms dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies primarily serve the mid-range market. Notable companies include Wanhua Chemical, Ganfeng Lithium, Hengli Petrochemical, and North Rare Earth [16][18]. Group 6: Key Enterprises - Major players in the high-performance materials sector include: - Wanhua Chemical, which operates globally and focuses on various chemical and new material sectors [17][19]. - Ganfeng Lithium, which covers the entire lithium battery supply chain from resource extraction to battery manufacturing [18]. - Hengli Petrochemical, recognized for its extensive production capabilities in petrochemicals and new materials [21]. - North Rare Earth, which has established a significant production base for rare earth materials [18]. Group 7: Future Development Trends - The high-performance materials industry is transitioning from self-sufficiency in low-end products to independent R&D of mid-to-high-end products, with increasing domestic competitiveness. The rapid development of emerging industries like renewable energy and smart manufacturing is driving innovation in high-performance materials, leading to new application scenarios and a promising market outlook [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for the subdivided non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant growth, with a 3.10% increase over the past month and a 13.89% increase year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for subdivided non-ferrous metals rose by 1.28% to 6711.19 points, with a trading volume of 39.135 billion yuan [1]. - The index has increased by 13.83% over the past three months [1]. - The index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related industries [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (15.24%), Northern Rare Earth (5.39%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.48%) [1]. - The index's holdings are primarily concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.67%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.33%) [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The index's sample holdings are predominantly in the raw materials sector (99.39%), with a small representation in the industrial sector (0.61%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the subdivided non-ferrous metal index include several products from Huaxia and Huitianfu, indicating investor interest in this sector [2].

Core Insights - The second China International Solid-State Battery Technology Industrialization Development Forum will be held from June 26-28, 2025, in Wuxi, Jiangsu, where Ganfeng Lithium will present advancements in solid-state battery materials and energy storage applications [1] - Ganfeng Lithium has established a comprehensive product layout covering battery materials, cells, battery cabinets, energy storage containers, and energy storage power solutions, making it the only company in the industry to operate the entire supply chain from raw materials to battery recycling [5] - The company has delivered over 21 GWh of energy storage battery products and has invested in and constructed energy storage stations exceeding 20 GWh [5] - The room temperature ionic conductivity of the developed oxide solid electrolyte material reaches 1.5 mS/cm, and the company has achieved stable preparation of 25-micron ultra-thin electrolyte ceramic sheets [5] - The developed sulfide solid electrolyte material has a room temperature ionic conductivity exceeding 12 mS/cm, with low-cost batch production of lithium sulfide and sulfide electrolyte materials [5] - The 304Ah solid-state energy storage cell has surpassed 4000 cycles in lifespan testing, demonstrating advantages in safety, low-temperature performance, and storage compared to liquid batteries [6] - The 304Ah cell maintains a higher overall capacity retention, especially showing improved stability during the first 1000 cycles, and exhibits zero voltage drop during an 8mm puncture test, indicating robust safety performance [6] - Ganfeng Lithium has innovatively constructed a "6-BTR" high-safety energy storage system strategy, providing multi-level protection and achieving certification for its lithium storage battery products [6] - The company's storage technology and products, integrating high-performance solid electrolytes and innovative cell designs, contribute to the development of high-safety, long-life, and wide-temperature range products for a cleaner and more sustainable energy system [8]