Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% on May 27, with 13 industries experiencing gains, led by textiles and apparel (up 1.30%) and pharmaceuticals (up 0.97%). The non-ferrous metals sector had the largest decline at 2.07% [2] - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 19.519 billion yuan, with 8 industries seeing net inflows. The food and beverage sector led with a net inflow of 1.006 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.17%, followed by pharmaceuticals with a net inflow of 650 million yuan and a daily increase of 0.97% [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector declined by 2.07%, with a total net capital outflow of 1.934 billion yuan. Out of 137 stocks in this sector, 20 rose while 115 fell [3] - Among the stocks with net inflows, Tianqi Lithium saw the highest inflow of 29.1255 million yuan, followed by Liyuan Co. and Jintian Titanium with inflows of 15.2085 million yuan and 15.1109 million yuan, respectively [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Chifeng Gold (1.96 billion yuan), Yun Aluminum (998.792 million yuan), and Huayou Cobalt (838.327 million yuan) [3][5] Capital Flow in Non-Ferrous Metals - The top stocks with net inflows in the non-ferrous metals sector included: - Tianqi Lithium: +0.98%, 1.23% turnover, 29.1255 million yuan inflow - Liyuan Co.: +1.30%, 3.34% turnover, 15.2085 million yuan inflow - Jintian Titanium: +2.44%, 5.14% turnover, 15.1109 million yuan inflow [4] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included: - Chifeng Gold: -4.26%, 3.67% turnover, -195.8561 million yuan outflow - Yun Aluminum: -4.16%, 1.54% turnover, -99.8792 million yuan outflow - Huayou Cobalt: -0.26%, 1.04% turnover, -83.8327 million yuan outflow [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was significantly impacted by high inventory costs, tax accounting issues related to SQM, and substantial asset impairment losses due to the termination of the Kwinana Phase II project. However, as lithium prices stabilize and high-cost inventory is gradually consumed, the company's low-cost advantages are expected to become more apparent, leading to a substantial improvement in operational performance [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.75%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 208.32%. The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was -7.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 210.4% [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.79% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.76%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -2.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 174.98% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 344.51% [2][4]. Production and Sales Summary - In 2024, the company's lithium concentrate sales were 740,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, while production was 1.41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%. By the end of 2024, inventory levels dropped to 300,000 tons from 410,000 tons at the end of 2023. The company saw a significant increase in lithium salt sales, with sales reaching 102,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 81.46%, and production at 70,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.44% [10]. Investment Income and Asset Impairment - The investment income from SQM significantly dragged down the company's performance, contributing -0.885 billion yuan in 2024. SQM's net profit was -2.885 billion yuan, primarily due to a substantial tax expense recognized in Q1 2024. The company decided to terminate the Kwinana Phase II project, leading to a total asset impairment loss of 2.114 billion yuan in 2024, which included 1.412 billion yuan related to the Kwinana project [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The domestic lithium carbonate supply in May 2025 is expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month. Due to the cost and supply - demand expectations, the lithium carbonate price may remain weak. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On May 26, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with May 23, 2025, with decreases of 720 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 860 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 32,588 lots, and the open interest increased by 7,966 lots. The inventory decreased by 794 tons [1]. - The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 140 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Price - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide decreased compared with the previous period. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 550 yuan/ton [1]. - The price differences between different grades of lithium products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium - Related Company News - Dazhong Mining, a domestic mining enterprise, has made important breakthroughs in its "iron ore + lithium ore" dual - wheel drive strategy. Its Hunan lithium ore project has rapid progress, with a proven reserve of 3.044 million tons in December 2024 [1]. - Sijie Co., Ltd. released new sulfide products at the 2025 China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference. It has achieved leading - level production indicators in terms of purity, particle size control, and ion conductivity of sulfide solid - state electrolytes. It has also reached a procurement framework agreement with Beijing Weilan New Energy [2]. - Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project has achieved full - process connectivity, marking a phased achievement in its industrial transformation and upgrading strategy [3]. - Rio Tinto will form a joint venture with the Chilean National Mining Company to develop and operate the Maricunga Salt Lake project in Chile, with a planned investment of up to $900 million [3]. Supply - Demand Situation Supply - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine project may increase the total annual production capacity to 2.01 million tons after being put into operation in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium concentrate and an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of lithium concentrate in May. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the supply in May is expected to be loose [4]. - The import window of lithium carbonate is closed, and the theoretical delivery profit is negative, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange and a decrease in the social inventory of lithium carbonate [4]. - The monthly cash production cost of lithium hydroxide by some domestic methods is positive or negative in terms of profit. Some companies' production line construction plans may increase the production volume and inventory of lithium hydroxide in May, while the export profit is negative, which may lead to an increase in the export volume [4]. Demand - The average production cost of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate by different domestic production processes is within a certain range. The production volume and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate may increase in May. Some companies' project plans will also affect the production and inventory of related products [5]. - The production (import) volume of various lithium - related products such as cobalt sulfate, electrolytic manganese dioxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and hexafluorophosphate lithium may change in May due to factors such as production cost and profit [6]. - Some new energy - related projects are expected to be put into operation, which may increase the production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage cells, power cells, and lithium - ion batteries in May, as well as the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles [6].

遂 宁锂电池产业链日益壮大。 起点锂电获悉， 5 月 24 日，第二十届中国西部国际博览会遂宁市投资推介会暨项目签约仪式在成都举行，活动中签约重大项目：遂宁新质交 通智能制造产业园。 该项目计划投资 52 亿元，主要建设固态电池和智能无人物流配送车。建成后会大大完善射洪"锂矿—锂盐—电池—终端"全产业链条。 除了该项目外，起点锂电今年也报道了落地遂宁的另外两大锂电项目。 4 月 15 日 遂宁 射洪市与富临集团签约锂电正极材料项目，计划投资约 56 亿元 ， 富临集团旗下富临精工为 锂电产业链材料端头部企业 。 富临集团在遂宁市项目较多， 从 2021 年到今 年已进行 四连投， 且 富临精工与宁德时代 关系较深， 子公司江西升华以增资扩股方式引入 宁德时代作为 投资者。 4 月 22 日遂宁市安居区与安徽相源新能源签约 ， 计划在遂宁投资 60 亿元锂电池项目，重点生产三款圆柱电池 18650/3214/46160 ，产品 将用于电动车辆、移动电源、笔记本电脑、无人机、电动工具、智能手机等领域。 相源新能源成立于 2016 年，总部位于安徽省淮北经济开发区，该公司 近两年动作较多，去年 在浙江 丽水投资建设 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a recommendation to buy [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the production elasticity and profit elasticity of electrolytic aluminum companies, indicating that profitability will be a key competitive factor due to fixed production capacity [8]. - The report predicts a decrease in the volatility of alumina prices in 2025, which will enhance the profitability of companies like Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Tianshan [8]. - The report provides forecasts for gold production from listed companies, with specific attention to the CAGR of production from 2024 to 2027 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Copper Industry - The report includes production data and forecasts for major copper companies, emphasizing the importance of proprietary mining data [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The report details the production capacity and market valuation of various electrolytic aluminum companies, noting that the lowest market value per ton of aluminum is approximately 21,000 RMB [8][9]. Gold Industry - The report presents a forecast of self-produced gold output for listed companies, with specific figures for total gold resources and market capitalization [10][11]. Lithium Industry - The report outlines the lithium resource rights and production forecasts for several companies, highlighting significant growth rates for companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials [12]. Uranium Industry - The report discusses the production forecasts for uranium companies, particularly focusing on China General Nuclear Power Corporation, with a projected CAGR of 8.16% from 2024 to 2027 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.26%, ranking it in the middle among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant rise of 5.58%, while industrial metals increased by 1.86% [1][14]. - The report highlights that tariff policies and a cooling U.S. Treasury auction have negatively impacted macroeconomic sentiment, leading to a weakening in industrial metals [1][24]. - Gold prices have surged due to deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions, with COMEX gold closing at $3,357.70 per ounce, a 4.75% increase week-on-week [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.26%, outperforming the index by 1.83 percentage points [14]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals led with a 5.58% increase, followed by industrial metals at 1.86%, while small metals and new materials declined [1][14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of May 23, LME copper was priced at $9,614 per ton, up 1.76% week-on-week. Supply remains tight due to mining incidents, but domestic smelting capacity is unaffected [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,466 per ton, down 0.62%. The supply side is impacted by the shutdown of bauxite mines in Guinea, leading to a significant rise in alumina prices [3][36]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc price increased by 0.78% to $2,713 per ton, with inventories decreasing [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin price fell by 0.46% to $32,665 per ton, with mixed inventory trends [45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly due to concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with a notable increase in both COMEX and SHFE gold prices [4][49]. - The report notes that the U.S. credit rating downgrade and a lackluster Treasury auction have further weakened market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [51][49]. Rare Earths - The report indicates stable supply and moderate demand for rare earths, with prices showing a slight decline [4]. News Highlights - The report discusses the implications of U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on the market, particularly in relation to gold and industrial metals [4][51].

Core Insights - The rapid development of China's new energy industry has led to a significant increase in overseas resource mergers and acquisitions by Chinese mining companies, enhancing their global presence and resource security [2][3] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Tianqi Lithium have emerged as leaders in the cobalt and lithium markets, respectively, showcasing the potential for growth and strategic acquisitions in the mining sector [3][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - The distribution of mineral resources, such as cobalt, is highly uneven globally, with the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for 70% of the world's cobalt production, highlighting the strategic importance of overseas acquisitions for Chinese companies [1][2] - The domestic demand for lithium and cobalt has surged alongside the growth of the new energy vehicle market, with lithium carbonate prices reaching historical highs of 170,000 yuan/ton in 2017 [5][8] Group 2: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum has become the world's largest cobalt producer in 2023, with production increasing from 1.5-2 million tons to 5.55 million tons in 2023, and projected to reach 11.42 million tons in 2024 [10][12] - Tianqi Lithium's revenue and net profit skyrocketed from 1.3 billion yuan and 14 billion yuan in 2013 to 40 billion yuan and 24 billion yuan in 2022, respectively, due to strategic acquisitions and market demand [4][8] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - Tianqi Lithium's acquisition of a 23.77% stake in Chile's SQM for $4.066 billion in 2018 was a pivotal move, allowing it to secure access to one of the world's highest-quality lithium resources [7][9] - Luoyang Molybdenum's acquisition of the TFM and KFM projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo has positioned it as a key player in the global cobalt market, with significant production increases expected [10][12] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The global cobalt market is relatively small compared to other industrial metals, with Luoyang Molybdenum projected to account for 39.4% of global cobalt production by 2024, indicating its influence on price fluctuations [12][13] - The copper market is also seeing significant contributions from Chinese companies, with domestic copper production expected to grow significantly, driven by companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [16][19] Group 5: Globalization and Challenges - Chinese mining companies are increasingly facing challenges in their global operations, including regulatory issues and geopolitical risks, as seen in Luoyang Molybdenum's disputes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [22][25] - Diversification in resource acquisition is becoming essential for mitigating risks, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expanding their operations across multiple countries and mineral types [26]

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Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is currently experiencing a downturn, but leading companies like Tianqi Lithium remain attractive to investors despite the challenges posed by falling lithium salt prices and increased competition [1][2]. Industry Overview - The lithium salt prices have significantly declined, with current prices ranging from 70,000 to 110,000 yuan per ton, down nearly 90% from the peak of 600,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022, and a 40% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]. - The oversupply in the lithium market began in 2023 due to rapid capacity expansion driven by the price surge in 2021 and 2022, leading to increased competition and pressure on profitability across the industry [1][2]. Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium has managed to turn a profit in the first quarter of 2024, reporting revenue of 2.584 billion yuan and a net profit of 104 million yuan [4]. - The company emphasizes cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement as key strategies to navigate the current market conditions [4]. Resource Management - Tianqi Lithium is unique in the industry for having a 100% self-sufficiency rate in lithium resources, with significant operations in both hard rock lithium and salt lake brine resources [5]. - The Greenbushes lithium spodumene mine in Australia is projected to have a total mining volume of 3.404 million tons in 2024, with a chemical-grade ore extraction of 3.064 million tons at an average grade of 2.1% [5]. - The company is also developing the Zola lithium spodumene mine in Sichuan, which has lithium resources equivalent to 632,400 tons of lithium carbonate [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Tianqi Lithium is actively exploring global lithium resource projects while considering economic feasibility, resource endowment, development costs, and local political environments [6]. - The company is also focused on research and development in next-generation battery materials, including solid-state batteries, and has made significant progress in the industrialization of lithium sulfide, a key material for solid-state batteries [8]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the lithium battery industry, driven by the demand from electric vehicles and energy storage markets, as well as emerging applications in low-altitude flying vehicles and drones [6][7].

从趋势上来看，锂盐行业从2023年开始供过于求，这是因为2022年下半年锂盐价格暴涨，吸引了很多新的市场参与者进入到这一行 业，造成了产能的快速扩张，进而影响到了价格。但是目前来看，锂盐价格已经进入到磨底期。 近日，天齐锂业在接受机构调研时表示，公司观察到近期锂精矿价格持续回落，但矿端供应尚未出现明显减量，产业链仍处于盈利压 力向上游传导阶段，锂盐端成本支撑线逐步下移。近期碳酸锂价格一度在每吨6.5万元附近出现反弹迹象，但随后再度回落，预计仍需 在此区间进行底部震荡和磨合。 天齐锂业同时认为，行业反转可能仍需等待关键催化因素的出现，例如具备规模的矿山或锂盐厂减产、下游需求进一步增长等。具体 价格走势受经济形势、市场参与者的博弈、预期及行为等多重因素影响，因此公司不对具体价格做指引，而是从行业现状与趋势展开 分析。 从需求来看，2025年，全球能源转型已进入关键阶段。各国政府、企业及社会各界正加速推动清洁能源的应用，以应对气候变化的挑 战。在全球范围内，新能源汽车和储能行业的发展仍然获得广泛的支持；从速度、规模、强度三个维度来看，目前全球锂行业仍然处 于发展的上升期。 天齐锂业表示，因此从中长期来看，公司认为锂 ...