沪指12月29日上涨0.04%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有10个，涨幅居前的行业为石油石化、国防军 工，涨幅分别为1.48%、1.43%。跌幅居前的行业为有色金属、公用事业，跌幅分别为1.95%、1.24%。 有色金属行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 605376 博迁新材 5.56 3.26 1379.20 有色金属行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | -4.41 | 1.94 | -109862.42 | | 600362 | 江西铜业 | 1.41 | 6.56 | -104962.10 | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | -4.54 | 5.05 | -68899.68 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | -4.74 | 5.67 | -60331.70 | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | -6.19 | 7.96 | -39038.27 | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | -3.29 | 3.23 | -37509.87 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the index and various stocks experiencing notable gains, particularly in silver and copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.56%, with key stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up by 10.05% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 4.68% [1]. - The surge in precious metals, especially silver, is attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 prominent securities from the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [2][4].

据上海有色网（SMM）分析，近期磷酸铁锂企业与下游电芯厂继续展开涨价谈判，头部企业本次展开的是 第二轮谈涨，但大部分其他的材料厂第一轮谈涨仍未落地。下游电芯厂整体仍处于接受原料涨价导致正极 材料有涨价的趋势，但实际涨价落地仍需进一步等待上下游的谈判结果。若后续正极材料厂涨价落地将更 有利于锂价上涨向下游传导，打开上行空间。同时天齐锂业调整现货交易结算价模式也侧面论证下游旺盛 需求。 下游高频数据仍支持行业高景气度，碳酸锂库存连续19周处于去库 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年12月25日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检 修时间1个月，减少正极材料产品1.5-3.5万吨；万润新能预计检修时间1个月 ...

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing significant changes, with major companies announcing equipment maintenance and price disputes affecting market dynamics [2][5][6]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Hunan Youneng announced a one-month equipment maintenance starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce its production of phosphate-based cathode materials by 15,000 to 35,000 tons [5][7]. - Tianqi Lithium announced it will no longer reference Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) prices for its product transactions starting January 1, 2026, opting instead for prices from Mysteel and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [2][3]. - Other companies, including Wanrun New Energy and Defang Nano, also announced similar one-month maintenance periods, indicating a coordinated effort among LFP producers [2][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies - A significant price discrepancy exists between the spot and futures markets for lithium carbonate, with SMM reporting a price of 101,500 CNY/ton, while the futures market prices from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Shanghai Steel Union were reported at 121,000 CNY/ton and 116,000 CNY/ton, respectively [3][4]. - The CEO of SMM stated that their pricing reflects the actual market conditions, and most lithium battery companies use SMM prices for procurement and sales [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent maintenance announcements by LFP producers are seen as a strategy to negotiate better prices with downstream battery manufacturers, particularly as negotiations with leading companies like BYD and CATL have been challenging [5][6]. - The overall production capacity of Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Defang Nano accounts for approximately 48% of the industry’s total capacity, indicating their significant influence on market supply [8]. - The anticipated production of lithium iron phosphate is projected to reach around 3.7 million tons by 2025, highlighting the growing demand in the industry [8].

Group 1 - Lithium prices continue to rise, with carbonate lithium futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high of 130,800 yuan/ton since November 2023, and closing at 130,500 yuan/ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 68.72% [1] - The spot market for lithium carbonate also shows strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices reaching 121,700 yuan/ton and 120,400 yuan/ton on December 26 [1] - The increase in lithium prices reflects rising market demand and improving market confidence, which is expected to positively impact the profitability of lithium carbonate producers as global demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage continues to grow [1] Group 2 - The lithium industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand relationship, with expectations for continued growth in the production of new energy vehicles in China, as well as increased penetration rates [2] - The global supply of lithium resources is abundant, ensuring stable supply, and the industry is likely to see increased concentration, with larger companies gaining more market power [2] - Potential mergers and acquisitions may accelerate changes in the industry landscape, driven by companies with resource advantages, scale, and stronger financing capabilities [2]

Group 1 - Key point 1: The article lists various executives from different companies, indicating a focus on leadership within the industry [2][3] - Key point 2: The companies mentioned span multiple sectors, including transportation, energy, and technology, highlighting a diverse range of industries [2][3] - Key point 3: The presence of executives from both state-owned and private enterprises suggests a mixed economic landscape in China [2][3] Group 2 - Key point 1: The mention of specific individuals such as Wang Jian from CRRC and Li Yan from Fuanna indicates their significance in their respective companies [2] - Key point 2: The inclusion of companies like BYD and Tianqi Lithium reflects the growing importance of electric vehicles and battery materials in the current market [2] - Key point 3: The diversity of sectors represented, from environmental technology to traditional manufacturing, points to a broad spectrum of investment opportunities [2][3]

Price Tracking - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 111,682 CNY/ton, an increase of 6,544 CNY/ton compared to the previous working day [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 111,900 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate averages 109,250 CNY/ton, also up by 7,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling long-term contract orders, with limited spot transactions [1] - Downstream material manufacturers are cautious about the rapid price increase, primarily purchasing based on long-term contracts and customer supply [1] - Some companies are forced to accept high-priced sources to maintain production due to urgent demand, which continues to push the current spot price upward [1] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of regulating order and leading innovation in the "new three" industries, including new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [2] - According to GGII, there are over 282 publicly announced investment projects in China's lithium battery industry chain by 2025, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of over 74% [2] - Policies related to the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries are expected to be introduced soon [2] - A document regarding the adjustment of lithium salt spot settlement prices has circulated in the industry, indicating that from January 1, 2026, Tianqi Lithium's spot trading settlement prices will no longer reference existing standards but will instead refer to Mysteel's battery-grade lithium salt prices or the main contract prices of lithium carbonate futures [2] - Tibet Mining stated that its lithium carbonate sales prices are based on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network prices, and the company will enhance market analysis to ensure stable operations [2] - Yihada reported that its sales in the lithium battery industry accounted for approximately 22% in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52% [3] - LG Energy Solution announced that Freudenberg Battery Power Systems has canceled a 3.9 trillion KRW electric vehicle battery supply contract scheduled for 2024 [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% on December 26, with 19 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals and power equipment, with increases of 3.69% and 1.40% respectively. Conversely, the electronic and light industry sectors saw declines of 0.71% and 0.61% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 23.284 billion yuan. However, 8 sectors saw net inflows, with the power equipment sector leading at 8.560 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector at 3.814 billion yuan [1] - The electronic sector had the highest net outflow, totaling 11.674 billion yuan, followed by the communication sector with a net outflow of 5.515 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included machinery, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector increased by 3.69%, with a total net inflow of 3.814 billion yuan. Out of 138 stocks in this sector, 108 rose, and 4 hit the daily limit. The top stocks by net inflow included Jiangxi Copper with 693 million yuan, Tianqi Lithium with 424 million yuan, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals with 420 million yuan [2] - The sector also had 10 stocks with net outflows exceeding 50 million yuan, with Western Materials leading at 707 million yuan, followed by Srey New Materials and Hengbang Shares with outflows of 267 million yuan and 129 million yuan respectively [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Inflow Rankings - The top stocks in terms of net inflow included: - Jiangxi Copper: +10.00%, turnover rate 4.84%, net inflow 692.74 million yuan - Tianqi Lithium: +4.32%, turnover rate 6.40%, net inflow 423.71 million yuan - Tongling Nonferrous Metals: +7.43%, turnover rate 5.29%, net inflow 419.94 million yuan - Other notable stocks included Luoyang Molybdenum and Ganfeng Lithium with inflows of 402.42 million yuan and 368.34 million yuan respectively [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outflow Rankings - The stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Western Materials: +1.26%, turnover rate 31.74%, net outflow -707.49 million yuan - Srey New Materials: -1.81%, turnover rate 8.86%, net outflow -267.26 million yuan - Hengbang Shares: +2.30%, turnover rate 4.64%, net outflow -129.74 million yuan - Other stocks with significant outflows included Baotai Shares and Jinyi Permanent Magnet [3]

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a significant increase of 3.95% on December 26, with Yongxing Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1] Energy Metals Sector Performance - Yongxing Materials (002756) closed at 55.51, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 223,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.217 billion yuan [1] - Cangge Mining (000408) closed at 85.33, up 7.19%, with a trading volume of 176,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.476 billion yuan [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192) closed at 55.46, up 5.28%, with a trading volume of 272,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.493 billion yuan [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) closed at 57.93, up 4.32%, with a trading volume of 945,000 shares and a transaction value of 5.467 billion yuan [1] - Jizhong Mining (600711) closed at 14.85, up 4.14%, with a trading volume of 1,488,300 shares and a transaction value of 2.192 billion yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 68.57, up 3.69%, with a trading volume of 786,200 shares and a transaction value of 5.377 billion yuan [1] - Yongshan Lithium (6633399) closed at 11.07, up 3.07%, with a trading volume of 282,100 shares and a transaction value of 311 million yuan [1] - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) closed at 35.21, up 2.65%, with a trading volume of 833,300 shares and a transaction value of 2.958 billion yuan [1] - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) closed at 67.00, up 2.20%, with a trading volume of 61,700 shares and a transaction value of 4.13 million yuan [1] - Tibet Mining (000762) closed at 27.55, up 2.19%, with a trading volume of 299,900 shares and a transaction value of 826 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 9.52 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 3.68 billion yuan [1] - Major stocks such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium had significant net inflows from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [2] - Retail investors showed a tendency to withdraw from several stocks, including Yongxing Materials and Cangge Mining, reflecting a cautious sentiment among smaller investors [2]

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry chain stocks experienced a collective rise on the 26th, with Yongxing Materials hitting the daily limit, Tianhua New Energy and Zhongkuang Resources increasing by approximately 8%, and companies like Rongjie Co. and BYD rising over 5% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 130,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since November 2023 [1] - Major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate are reportedly planning a collective price adjustment in January 2026, influenced by rising lithium carbonate raw material prices, improving downstream demand, and product sales prices remaining below cost [1] Group 2 - Institutions predict that lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels due to unclear supply disturbance expectations, high mining prices, and moderate improvements in downstream demand [1] - In the medium to long term, lithium mines are considered the most valuable and elastic targets in the electric vehicle industry chain and energy storage [1]