证券研究报告·公司深度研究·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 管桩出海厚积薄发，未来成长性确定 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4325 | 3780 | 5727 | 7522 | 8933 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 51.52 | 31.34 | 18.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.88 | 852.62 | 1,211.19 | 1,542.78 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 79.92 | 42.06 | 27.38 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.34 | 1.90 | 2.42 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 40.49 | 36.32 | 20.19 | 14.21 | 11.16 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing overseas market for offshore wind power, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [7][8]. - The European offshore wind market is entering a phase of accelerated installation, driven by increased government support and energy security concerns [37][39]. - The company has established a strong competitive advantage through its extensive overseas market presence and high-quality customer base [8][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading exporter of offshore wind foundation structures, having successfully transitioned from a domestic steel structure manufacturer to a global player in the offshore wind sector [14][18]. - The company has implemented a "Two Seas Strategy" to enhance its international footprint, with significant investments in production capacity and infrastructure [14][18]. Offshore Wind Industry - The European offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with cumulative installed capacity expected to reach over 150GW by 2030 [37][39]. - The report highlights that the energy crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted European countries to increase their offshore wind capacity plans [37][39]. Market Potential - The offshore wind tower market is expected to see substantial growth, with the European market projected to expand from 6.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 13.9 billion yuan by 2025, and further to 73.4 billion yuan by 2030 [8][14]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its cost advantages and efficient delivery capabilities compared to local European manufacturers [8][14]. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed a robust global logistics and delivery system, including a specialized fleet of transport vessels to enhance its operational efficiency [8][14]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with significant contracts from major European clients, ensuring revenue stability and growth [8][14]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 37.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 57.27 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in net profit from 4.74 billion yuan to 8.53 billion yuan [1][8]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), projecting it to rise from 0.74 yuan in 2024 to 1.34 yuan in 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved strong profitability in 2024, with a sales gross margin reaching 29.83%, the highest level in nearly a decade, and a net profit margin of 12.54%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.59 percentage points and 2.71 percentage points respectively [1] - The European offshore wind auction capacity reached a historical high in 2024, with a total of 36.8GW, of which offshore wind accounted for over half, indicating a robust market for future orders [2] - The company is actively expanding its market presence beyond Europe into Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia, with sufficient overseas orders supporting future growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while overseas revenue accounted for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.46% [1] - The company expects revenues of 5.92 billion, 7.80 billion, and 9.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 857 million, 1.19 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan [9][11] Market Opportunities - The company has successfully delivered various offshore wind projects in Europe, including significant contracts with major clients such as RWE and GE, enhancing its reputation and market share [2] - The company is also focusing on the floating foundation market, with several projects expected to be launched in the coming years, indicating a growing demand for innovative offshore solutions [7] Strategic Positioning - The company's strategy of integrating offshore monopiles, towers, and self-built marine vessels is expected to solidify its competitive edge in the offshore engineering sector [9] - The transition to a DAP delivery model is anticipated to enhance profitability and operational efficiency, supported by a robust logistics framework [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong profitability in 2024, achieving a net profit of 4.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.46%, despite a 12.61% decline in revenue to 37.80 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.83%, an increase of 6.59 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level in nearly a decade [1]. - The net profit margin reached 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 1018% [1]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Orders - In 2024, European offshore wind project auctions reached a historical high of 36.8 GW, with offshore wind accounting for over half of this total, a 46.3% increase from 2023 [2]. - The company has significantly increased its export volume of offshore projects to Europe, delivering nearly 110,000 tons of various offshore products to major clients such as RWE and GE [2]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets in Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia, leveraging its strong performance in Europe to secure new orders [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through a "three-in-one" strategy involving offshore monopiles, self-built marine vessels, and floating foundations [6]. - The company plans to deliver two specialized offshore wind equipment transport vessels by 2025, aiming to establish a fleet of 10-20 large transport vessels [3]. - The company is also focusing on the floating foundation market, with several projects expected to be launched in Europe by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The transition to a DAP delivery model is expected to strengthen the company's product profitability and overall supply capabilities [5]. - The company anticipates continued growth in overseas orders, supported by favorable market conditions and its competitive advantages [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 59.21 billion yuan, 78.05 billion yuan, and 92.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.57 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 15.03 billion yuan [7].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the offshore wind power (海丰) industry in Europe, focusing on project developments, auction capacities, and financial indicators related to the sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Auction Capacity and FID Trends**: - In 2022, European countries like Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands contributed nearly 20 GW of new auction capacity, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47% despite some auction failures [1]. - The overall financing activities for offshore wind projects in Europe were relatively low, with less than 3 GW of FIDs completed, a decline of approximately 70% year-on-year [2]. 2. **Future Project Expectations**: - There is a strong expectation for more projects to complete FID based on the 40 GW of projects already auctioned, indicating a high likelihood of subsequent project initiation [3]. - The offshore wind capacity in Europe is projected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated [5]. 3. **Project Procurement Timeline**: - The procurement cycle for offshore wind projects in Europe typically spans three to four years before project grid connection, which is longer than domestic timelines [6]. - Orders currently in hand for wind turbine foundation companies are primarily from projects scheduled for grid connection in 2027 and beyond [7]. 4. **Order Backlog and Performance**: - There is a notable disparity in order backlogs between different companies, with some experiencing significant growth while others have not yet seen similar increases [8]. - The profitability of offshore wind technology companies in Europe is generally modest, with leading firms achieving economic margins of only 1-2% [10]. 5. **Manufacturing Capacity and Demand**: - By the end of 2023, European wind turbine technology companies had invested approximately 1 million tons in manufacturing capacity, which aligns with about 5 GW of new installation demand [11]. - Current manufacturing capacity is insufficient to meet the anticipated demand for offshore wind projects in the coming years [12]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape**: - The competitive landscape includes significant players like SAFE, which holds a leading position in the Netherlands, and other companies like 大金, which have substantial market shares in the UK and other regions [14][15]. - The expectation for new orders in 2024 is strong, with the current year being viewed as a pivotal year for order placements in the offshore wind sector [16]. 7. **Company Performance Outlook**: - The company anticipates a strong performance in Q1 and Q2 of the current year, with expectations for significant growth in overseas shipments and overall orders [17][18]. - The offshore wind segment is expected to remain a robust growth driver for the company, alongside contributions from other business areas [18]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlighted the importance of understanding the micro-level project dynamics in the offshore wind sector, which can provide insights into broader market trends [4]. - The discussion also emphasized the need for companies to adapt to the longer procurement cycles and the implications for future project timelines and financial planning [6][7].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and strategic direction of a company involved in the offshore wind energy sector, specifically focusing on its operations in Europe and its recent projects and financial results [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The company reported a total shipment volume of approximately 390,000 tons last year, with a revenue decline attributed to a reduction in domestic business, which aligns with the strategic decision made at the beginning of the year to lower profitability in riskier domestic markets [1]. - Profit for the year reached 474 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.46%, driven by high profitability from exported offshore products [1]. - The gross margin and net margin have been continuously improving for three consecutive years, with the gross margin nearing 30% in the 2024 annual report [1]. Project Updates - In Q4, the company successfully delivered two vessels for the DAP project in Denmark, marking the best quarterly performance in terms of revenue and net profit [2]. - The company has established solid partnerships with top five clients in Europe and is actively pursuing further offshore projects [2]. - The company has completed significant projects in Europe, including the NOY project in France and the Thor project in Denmark, with all scheduled deliveries meeting quality standards [3]. Market Trends and Growth Projections - The European offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 285 GW by the end of 2024, including 37 GW from offshore wind [4][5]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for offshore wind installations in Europe is forecasted at 22% from 2023 to 2028 and 23% from 2028 to 2033 [5]. - The company is actively participating in the Japanese and Korean markets, with established relationships with developers and ongoing projects [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a global floating foundation center in Spain to address the growing demand for floating wind projects [13][14]. - A new shipping division has been created to enhance logistics capabilities, allowing for more efficient project delivery [16]. - The company is focusing on localizing production and has made significant investments in its facilities to meet the increasing demand for offshore wind components [23][24]. Risks and Challenges - The company acknowledges potential risks in the European market, including the impact of geopolitical tensions and supply chain challenges due to sanctions affecting material availability [39][40]. - There are concerns about the ability to meet the growing demand for offshore wind projects, particularly in light of the increasing complexity and scale of projects [38]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about maintaining its gross margin levels and expects to see continued growth in offshore wind project orders, particularly in Europe [28][30]. - The management anticipates that the offshore wind market will continue to expand, driven by government incentives and a shift towards renewable energy sources [23][46]. Additional Important Content - The company is actively exploring acquisition opportunities and partnerships to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [19][21]. - There is a strong emphasis on quality and timely delivery, which has contributed to positive feedback from clients and a solid reputation in the market [18][22]. - The management team is confident in achieving significant market share growth in the coming years, with a focus on both domestic and international markets [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Hold" [1][5][7] Core Views - The company has shown initial success in its "New Two Seas" strategy, with significant improvements in operational quality. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.46% to 474 million RMB [5][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for wind power installations both domestically and internationally, particularly in the offshore wind sector in Europe, which is expected to see rapid growth starting in 2025 [10][11] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding its production capacity, aiming for a global capacity of over 3 million tons, with a focus on establishing a marketing network in Europe and Southeast Asia [10][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,780 million RMB, with a gross margin of 29.83%, an increase of 6.39 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points [11][12] - The company forecasts revenues of 5.23 billion RMB, 7.59 billion RMB, and 8.80 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 711 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.31 billion RMB [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 RMB, 1.59 RMB, and 2.05 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.4, 14.3, and 11.1 for the same years [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of offshore wind development in Europe, with its domestic business expected to exceed expectations [1]. - The company has a clear development strategy, having established a presence in domestic onshore and offshore wind markets, as well as the European offshore wind market [1][6]. - The company has successfully entered the high-barrier, high-value European offshore wind market, with significant order volumes and a strong customer base [6][30]. Company Overview - Founded in 2000, the company transitioned from traditional energy equipment manufacturing to clean energy manufacturing in 2006 and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010 [12]. - The company primarily produces wind turbine towers and related structures, with a focus on offshore wind projects [12][17]. - As of 2024, the company reported a revenue decline of 12.6% year-on-year to 3.78 billion yuan, primarily due to a strategic reduction in domestic business with lower profitability and higher payment risks [6][21]. European Offshore Wind Market - The company has made significant strides in the European offshore wind market, having signed its first order in 2022 and accumulating a substantial order book since then [6][30]. - The total value of undisclosed European offshore wind orders is approximately 7.2 billion yuan, with a gross margin significantly higher than domestic operations [6][30]. - The European offshore wind market is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 36% from 2024 to 2027, driven by energy independence and climate goals [39][40]. Domestic Business Outlook - The domestic wind power market is projected to see a 90% increase in bidding volume in 2024, reaching 164 GW, which is expected to lead to accelerated deliveries in 2025 [34][38]. - The company’s domestic onshore wind business is anticipated to exceed expectations, with a production capacity of approximately 500,000 tons [34]. - The company’s operational projects, including a 250 MW wind project, are expected to contribute stable profits [35]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 804 million yuan and 948 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20X and 17X [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Hold" [1][5][7] Core Views - The company has shown initial success in its "New Two Seas" strategy, with significant improvements in operational quality. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.46% to 474 million RMB [5][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for wind power installations both domestically and internationally, particularly in the offshore wind sector in Europe, which is expected to see rapid growth starting in 2025 [10][11] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding its production capacity, aiming for a global production capacity of over 3 million tons, which will support future growth [10][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,780 million RMB, with a gross margin of 29.83%, up 6.39 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 12.54%, an increase of 2.71 percentage points [11][12] - The company forecasts revenues of 5.23 billion RMB, 7.59 billion RMB, and 8.80 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 711 million RMB, 1,017 million RMB, and 1,310 million RMB [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 RMB, 1.59 RMB, and 2.05 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.4, 14.3, and 11.1 for the same years [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in annual performance, with a revenue of 3.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 474 million yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.83%, up by 6.39 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points [1][7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw remarkable performance, with revenue reaching 1.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 55.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 192 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 1017.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.44% [1][18]. - The company has successfully delivered nearly 110,000 tons of offshore wind products in 2024, achieving its first DAP delivery. The overseas revenue reached 1.733 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment's revenue [2][23]. - The European offshore wind market is expected to see a recovery, with approximately 20GW of projects auctioned in 2024, the highest annual auction volume in recent years. The company has successfully passed the qualification supplier certification of most leading European owners, positioning it to benefit from this recovery [3][26]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 858 million yuan, 1.287 billion yuan, and 1.597 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19, 12, and 10 times [3][26]. - The financial forecast indicates a revenue increase to 4.904 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 29.7% compared to 2024, and a net profit increase of 81% [4][28]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve to 32% in 2025, with a net asset return (ROE) of 11.2% [4][28].