以下文章来源于泽平宏观商学 ，作者泽平宏观商学 泽平宏观商学 . 前沿科技企业实战研学 读万卷书行万里路 2025 年 12 月 用心打造最有品质的实战研学。读万卷书，行万里路。把教室搬到世界上最优秀的企业， 请最优秀的企业家和科学家讲课。顺势而为，把握机遇。正心正念，坚持做长期正确的 事！ 我们期待与更多的企业家朋友们携手同行，共赴 2026 实战研学之旅！ 泽 ZEP 平 INGM 宏 ACR 观 O RE 商 SEAR 学 CH 1-6月日程安排 · 斯坦福大学、伯克利大学 3月27日-28日 苏州 追觅科技、魔法原子、灵猴机器人 闭门投研会-2026 Al 的中国力量(一) 3月29日 上海 长三角校友会 4月20日-21日 香港 2026 香港 Web3 嘉年华 复星财富、HashKey、港交所 5月22日-23日 1151 11:47:50 深圳 华为、新凯来、江波龙、莫界科技 闭门投研会—2026 Al 的中国力量(二) 6月26日-27日 型成 11月4日-11日 洛杉矶、拉斯维加斯、旧金山 CES、英伟达、特斯拉 谷歌、罗宾汉、playground 2月27日 北京 国内头部智驾科技企业 人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is advancing rapidly, with multiple companies outlining their technological paths and industrial plans for commercialization by 2026 and beyond [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Geely has established three technological routes for solid-state batteries, focusing on polymer, sulfide, and halide composite solutions, with a goal to launch prototype vehicles by 2026 and achieve small-scale production by 2027 [1]. - Chery plans to produce a 0.5GWh pilot line and commence continuous production of 60Ah solid-state battery cells by 2026, with vehicle demonstration work starting in 2027 [2]. - China FAW has successfully developed a prototype of its Hongqi solid-state battery, achieving significant breakthroughs in key performance metrics [2]. - BYD is focusing on sulfide solid-state batteries, aiming for small-scale production by 2027, while Sunwoda has announced plans for mass production of solid-state batteries by the same year [2]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Standards - The development of national standards for solid-state batteries is underway, with a draft expected to be completed by December 2025 and formal publication planned for July 2026 [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes enhancing the self-controllable capabilities of the supply chain and accelerating breakthroughs in core technologies, including solid-state batteries [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the promising outlook for solid-state batteries, challenges remain, including unclear material systems and engineering difficulties that could impact safety and lifespan [4]. - The industry is expected to evolve from semi-solid to small-scale and then to mid-to-high-end solid-state battery production between 2026 and 2030, with potential risks related to technology iteration and raw material supply [4].

Core Insights - The autonomous mining truck industry is rapidly growing, with significant investments and innovations emerging from companies like Boonray and Eacon, which are leading players in this sector [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The autonomous mining truck market generated approximately 3.9 billion yuan in the previous year and is projected to grow at an annual rate of 64.2%, reaching 28.1 billion yuan by 2030 [3] - Autonomous trucks are favored for their precision and safety, as they reduce the need for human operators in a high-risk industry where mining workers represent only 1% of the workforce but account for 8% of workplace accidents [4] Company Performance - Eacon, Boonray, and CiDi are the top three autonomous mining truck manufacturers in China, with Eacon leading in deliveries, having provided around 1,000 trucks, while Boonray has delivered 584 and CiDi 304 [5] - Boonray's revenue surged by 145.6% in 2024 and increased more than ninefold year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, reaching 315.2 million yuan [6] - Eacon also reported triple-digit revenue growth over the last two years, while CiDi's growth slowed to 58% in the first half of last year [6] Investment Landscape - The sector is attractive to investors due to the relatively low competition compared to the passenger EV market, which is characterized by overcapacity and financial losses [7] - Boonray has secured significant funding, including 1.14 billion yuan ($165 million) from notable investors like BYD, and is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO [2][10] Product Differentiation - Boonray is distinguished by its dual charging and battery swapping capabilities, which enhance operational efficiency, allowing uptime rates of over 90% [11] - The company claims to be the largest provider of electric autonomous mining trucks globally, with 30 active mines utilizing its products [9] Business Segments - Boonray's other business segments, smart mining and smart transportation, contributed 3.1% and 4.5% of total revenue, respectively, in the first nine months of 2025 [12] Historical Context - Boonray was founded in 2015, initially focusing on intelligent inspection systems for photovoltaic power stations before pivoting to mining solutions in 2018 [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - BYD and Geely are among the final bidders for the Nissan-Benz factory in Mexico, with VinFast also making the shortlist [1] Group 1: Bidders - The final bidders include BYD, Geely, and VinFast [1] - Other companies that previously expressed interest include Chery and Great Wall Motors [1] - None of the companies, including BYD, Geely, Chery, Great Wall, and VinFast, have commented on the bidding process [1]

Core Viewpoint - BYD is projected to achieve global sales of 4.6 million vehicles by 2025, surpassing traditional automotive giant Ford for the first time [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Ford's global wholesale sales for 2025 are expected to be slightly below 4.4 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year decline of nearly 2% [1] - BYD has become the first Chinese automotive brand to enter the top five global automotive groups in terms of sales volume [1] Group 2: Market Leadership - BYD has maintained its position as the global sales champion for new energy vehicles for four consecutive years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese automakers, including BYD and Geely, are in the final competition to acquire the Nissan-Benz factory in Aguascalientes, Mexico, as they seek to establish a manufacturing foothold in the region amid increasing factory closures and layoffs due to U.S. tariffs [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mexico has become a significant export market for Chinese automakers, with market share rising from zero in 2020 to approximately 10% last year, according to AutoForecast Solutions [4][10]. - The annual vehicle sales in Mexico are around 1.5 million units [4][10]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The Mexican automotive industry is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with projections indicating that out of 4 million vehicles produced in 2024, 2.8 million will be exported to the U.S. [6][11]. - The imposition of a 25% tariff by the U.S. on Mexican-made vehicles since March of last year has put continuous pressure on the industry [6][11]. Group 3: Factory Closure and Acquisition - The Nissan-Benz factory, which began operations in 2017, is set to close due to multiple factors, with U.S. tariffs being a significant contributor [6][11]. - The factory has an annual production capacity of 230,000 vehicles and is equipped with skilled labor and robust transportation infrastructure [7][11]. - Nine companies, including Chinese firms Chery and Great Wall, as well as Vietnam's VinFast, have expressed interest in acquiring the factory, which primarily produces hybrid and electric vehicles for the Mexican and Latin American markets [10][11].

Group 1 - Ford's wholesale sales for 2025 are projected to be less than 4.4 million units, which is lower than BYD's previously announced target of 4.6 million units for the same year [1] - This marks the first time BYD has surpassed the century-old automaker Ford in terms of projected sales, positioning BYD among the top six global automakers by 2025 [1]

Group 1 - BYD and Geely are reportedly bidding for the Nissan-Benz automotive plant in Mexico, with Chery and Great Wall Motors also expressing interest in the acquisition [1] - The plant is scheduled to close in May 2026, and BYD has been identified as a leading potential buyer since late last year [1] - The acquisition could leverage the benefits of the USMCA agreement, allowing localized production to avoid high tariffs in the US [1]

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is advancing rapidly, with multiple companies outlining their technological paths and industrial plans for commercialization by 2026 and beyond [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Geely has established three technological routes for solid-state batteries, focusing on polymer, sulfide, and halide composite solutions, with a goal to launch prototype vehicles by 2026 and achieve small-scale production by 2027 [1]. - Chery plans to produce a 0.5GWh pilot line and commence continuous production of 60Ah solid-state cells by 2026, with vehicle demonstration work starting in 2027 [2]. - FAW's Hongqi brand has successfully developed a solid-state battery prototype, achieving significant breakthroughs in key areas such as sulfide electrolyte performance and cell testing [2]. - BYD is focusing on sulfide solid-state batteries, aiming for small-scale production by 2027, while Sunwoda has already achieved mass production of its first and second-generation semi-solid batteries [2]. Group 2: Policy and Standards - The development of national standards for solid-state batteries is underway, with a draft expected to be completed by December 2025 and formal publication planned for July 2026 [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes enhancing the self-controllability of the supply chain and accelerating breakthroughs in core technologies, including solid-state batteries [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the recognized potential of solid-state batteries, challenges remain, including unclear material systems and engineering difficulties that could affect safety and lifespan [4]. - The domestic solid-state battery market is expected to evolve from semi-solid scale production to small-scale full solid-state production and then to mid-to-high-end large-scale production between 2026 and 2030 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The retail sales of passenger cars in China experienced a significant decline in January 2026, with a total of approximately 1.544 million units sold, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [1][2]. Retail Performance - In January 2026, retail sales for different vehicle categories were as follows: sedans at 622,000 units (down 24.7%), MPVs at 79,000 units (up 1.0%), SUVs at 843,000 units (down 5.2%), and microvans at 14,000 units (up 2.5%) [2]. - The total retail sales for narrow passenger vehicles were 1.544 million units, down 13.9% compared to the same month last year [2]. Market Analysis - The decline in the passenger car market is viewed as a short-term fluctuation rather than a long-term trend, attributed to the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of 2025 [3]. - The market is expected to face a low point in February 2026 due to the post-holiday consumption slowdown, which may help alleviate retail inventory pressure [3]. Brand Performance - In January 2026, retail sales for domestic brands were 890,000 units (down 18%), while mainstream joint venture brands sold 470,000 units (down 4%), and luxury vehicles sold 180,000 units (down 15%) [4]. - Major domestic brands like Geely, BYD, Changan, and Chery saw significant declines in retail sales, with Geely down 12.6%, BYD down 53%, Changan down 33.5%, and Chery down 41% [4][6]. Joint Venture Brands - Joint venture brands showed relatively stable performance, with FAW-Volkswagen down 3.5%, SAIC Volkswagen down 9.3%, and BMW Brilliance down 3.9% [6]. - Some joint venture brands, such as FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota, experienced year-on-year growth of 8.3% and 0.3%, respectively [6]. New Energy Vehicle Market - In January 2026, retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were 596,000 units, down 20% year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 864,000 units, down 3.3% [9]. - The A00-class pure electric vehicle segment saw a drastic decline, with wholesale sales dropping 62%, significantly impacting the overall performance of the new energy vehicle market [11]. Export Performance - New energy vehicles have become a major force in China's passenger car exports, with 139,000 units exported in January 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [13]. - The export of pure electric vehicles accounted for 66% of new energy vehicle exports, with A0 and A00-class vehicles making up 38% of the total new energy vehicle export volume [13]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a recovery phase in February 2026, driven by the gradual implementation of vehicle replacement policies [16]. - However, rising costs due to increased prices of raw materials like lithium and copper may pressure automakers, potentially leading to cautious consumer behavior and affecting demand [16].