Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Greater China Auto, EV, and EV Battery Industry Forecasts - **China's Auto Industry**: Expected to face challenges in 2026 with a forecasted decline in auto wholesales by **1.6% YoY** compared to a **10% YoY** increase in 2025. This decline is attributed to front-loaded demand in 2025 [1] - **Domestic EV Sales**: Anticipated to grow only **7% YoY** in 2026 due to a **5% increase in purchase tax** and reduced trade-in subsidies [1] - **Export Sales**: Projected to increase by **12% YoY**, reaching **7.9 million units** in 2026, with EV exports expected to surge by **40% YoY** [1] - **Competition Dynamics**: Shift from price competition to configuration-based competition, necessitating more investment in autonomous driving (AD) and smart cabin technologies [1] Key Automotive/EV Themes for 2026 Theme 1: Export Growth - **Export Growth**: Companies like Chery and BYD are expected to benefit significantly from exports, especially with the EU's minimum EV price replacing tariffs [2] Theme 2: Autonomous Driving Development - **ADAS to AD Transition**: L3 permits issued to Changan and BAIC, with highway/city NOA penetration expected to exceed **40%** in 2026 and **85%** by 2030. L4/L5 penetration is projected to reach **8%** by 2030 [3] Theme 3: Cost Concerns - **Battery and Memory Costs**: Rising costs and supply stability of memory are key concerns for auto OEMs [3] Key Battery Themes for 2026 Theme 1: Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - **ESS Demand**: Global battery ESS installations expected to grow by **33% YoY** in 2026, with shipments increasing by **41% YoY** [4] Theme 2: Global Expansion - **Overseas Capacity Expansion**: Chinese battery manufacturers are accelerating their overseas capacity expansion, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, in response to rising tariffs and trade tensions [4] Theme 3: VAT Rebate Changes - **Export VAT Rebate Cut**: Anticipated to lead to a rush in battery production and shipment in Q1 2026, potentially increasing raw material prices and exerting cost pressure on battery makers and auto OEMs [5] Theme 4: Technological Innovation - **Sodium-Ion Battery**: Launch of Gen-2 sodium-ion battery expected, with ASSB (all-solid-state battery) small-batch production anticipated to start in 2027 and scale up significantly post-2029 [5] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - **XPeng**: Launch of Mona SUV and HR in 2H26, with a focus on AI-related businesses [6] - **CATL**: Growth driven by CEV, ESS, and overseas capacity despite short-term cost pressures [6] - **Tuopu**: Major supplier for humanoid robots with overseas expansion [6] - **Minth**: Resilient earnings growth supported by high overseas market exposure [6] - **Hesai**: Increased LiDAR adoption in China alongside L3 ADAS development [6] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The shift in competition and the focus on technological advancements highlight the evolving landscape of the automotive and EV sectors in China, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and regulatory environments [1][3][4][5]

"2026年全年盈利的目标最大的不确定性来自于上游原材料的上涨，我们并没有办法快速全部转嫁到下游的客户，造成我们自己会吸收很多原材料价格的上 涨，这部分是对2026年盈利最大的挑战。" 而另一部分成本，电池厂则必须自己扛下。例如隔膜、石墨等非大宗原料，以及持续攀升的加工费，它们通常"不联动"。这部分成本上涨后，电池企业很难 立刻向客户要求提价，只能先和上游供应商协商分担，或者等积累到一定幅度后，再艰难地与车企进行"打包谈判"。 最典型的压力体现在储能业务上。与动力电池成熟的联动体系不同，储能项目以往多采用固定价格的合同制，几乎完全没有价格传导机制。面对这轮剧烈的 价格波动，电池企业正紧急与客户协商，希望建立起新的价格调整规则以分摊风险，但这无疑需要时间。 蜂巢能源董事长杨红新在年初的这句话，几乎是所有中国电池企业共同面对的现实。开年以来，碳酸锂等关键材料价格再次抬头，而下游的市场却传来了降 温的信号。摩根士丹利最近发布的一份预测报告显示，2026年中国车市将迎来7%的销量下滑。 当成本涨上去，需求却可能慢下来，被夹在中间的电池厂，面临的是近几年最复杂的局面。 原材料涨价：有的能传导，有的得自扛 锂电材料涨价风 ...

Group 1: BYD / Passenger Vehicles - BYD reported a total sales volume of 4.6024 million vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.73% despite a monthly sales decline of 18.3% in December 2025 [3][4] - The sales of the high-end model "Fangchengbao" surged by 345.5% year-on-year in December 2025, with annual sales reaching 235,000 units, indicating a strong performance in the high-end market segment [4] - BYD's overseas sales reached 1.0496 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 145%, solidifying its position as the global leader in the new energy vehicle market [4][5] Group 2: Kangnuo Ya-B / Biopharmaceuticals - Kangnuo Ya's innovative biological agent, Kangyueda, has been included in the national medical insurance reimbursement list, enhancing patient accessibility and reducing financial burdens [6][7] - The drug shows significant efficacy in treating moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, with response rates of 92.5% and 77.1% for EASI-75 and EASI-90, respectively [7] - Revenue projections for Kangnuo Ya are estimated at 741 million yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.9 billion yuan by 2027, with a "buy" rating assigned based on the growth potential of its innovative product pipeline [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate and Glyphosate Industry - The lithium carbonate price increased by 14.69% week-on-week, reaching 140,500 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector [17] - Glyphosate prices rose by 4.78% week-on-week, reflecting a recovery in demand and a tightening supply situation in the market [17][12] - The chemical industry is expected to experience a revaluation due to supply-side changes and a potential shift towards higher dividend yields as capacity expansion slows [12][13] Group 4: Shenli Environment / General Equipment - Shenli Environment is focusing on expanding production capacity and overseas markets, with a significant increase in orders for high-efficiency liquid cooling equipment [36][38] - The company aims to enhance its product delivery capabilities through the establishment of new intelligent production lines, ensuring timely and high-quality order fulfillment [38] - The data service segment is projected to become a core growth driver, with substantial order growth expected in the coming years [40][41] Group 5: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to improve as tariff impacts wane, with a focus on leading manufacturers benefiting from stable operations and improved order flows [43][44] - The domestic sports footwear and apparel market is showing signs of recovery, particularly among high-end brands, with expectations for accelerated growth in 2026 [44] - The luxury goods market in China is gradually recovering, driven by wealth effects and improved retail performance, with a projected growth of approximately 4% in 2026 [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing growth and trends in the motorcycle industry, particularly focusing on sales data and market share for various motorcycle segments and manufacturers [2][3][4]. Sales Data Summary - For motorcycles with engine displacement over 250cc, December 2025 sales reached 69,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a month-on-month increase of 12.9%. Cumulative sales from January to December totaled 952,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.9% [2]. - In the 250cc to 400cc segment, December sales were 45,000 units, up 16.3% year-on-year and 28.3% month-on-month, with a total of 525,000 units sold in 2025, marking a 24.7% increase year-on-year [3]. - The 400cc to 500cc segment saw December sales of 9,000 units, down 51.7% year-on-year and 20.9% month-on-month, with a total of 218,000 units sold in 2025, down 7.2% year-on-year [3]. - The 500cc to 800cc segment experienced December sales of 13,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 63.6%, while cumulative sales for the year reached 186,000 units, up 115.9% year-on-year [3]. - For motorcycles over 800cc, December sales were 2,000 units, down 3.1% year-on-year but up 42.4% month-on-month, with total sales for the year at 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.8% [3]. Manufacturer Performance - Longxin General's December sales for the 250cc+ segment were 10,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with a market share of 15.0%, though down 4.5 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share for 2025 was 14.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from 2024 [4]. - Chunfeng Power reported December sales of 10,000 units in the 250cc+ segment, down 43.8% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.8%, decreasing by 5.5 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share for 2025 remained unchanged at 19.8% compared to 2024 [4]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's December sales in the 250cc+ segment were 4,000 units, down 38.2% year-on-year, with a market share of 5.6%, decreasing by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share for 2025 was 11.9%, down 4.9 percentage points from 2024 [4]. Industry Outlook - The motorcycle industry is expected to see stable growth in the large-displacement segment, with wholesale sales of motorcycles over 250cc projected at 191,000 units in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 26.3%. Domestic sales are anticipated to be 69,000 units, down 5.2% year-on-year and down 38.5% month-on-month, while export sales are expected to reach 122,000 units, up 10.5% year-on-year [7]. - The article suggests focusing on key companies in the motorcycle sector, particularly Chunfeng Power and Longxin General, as potential investment opportunities [10].

多伦多二手车经销商纳扎尔·纳沃尔斯基说："更多选择将降低整体市场价格，加车市会发生巨大转变。 从任何角度来说，消费者都将是赢家，无论客户专门寻找中国汽车还是愿意考虑这个选项，都将从中获 益。"纳沃尔斯基一直在全球各地参观车展，目睹越来越多中国电动汽车进入各国市场。中国汽车不断 展示技术进步，逐渐消除以往那种质量和安全标准较低的刻板印象。"今年不同于往年，中国参展汽车 阵容庞大，我已经预料到它们将进入北美市场。"他说，"我今年才首次亲身体验中国电动汽车。很多人 仍抱有成见，认为中国产品便宜，质量不够好，技术不够好，但如今我自己有了真正的体验，我触摸 到，感受到，我完全被震惊了"。 另一家二手车经销企业的经理哈姆扎·帕特尔也这么认为，"如今，消费者可以在知名品牌和比亚迪、小 米等新兴品牌之间做选择，这些中国品牌以实惠的价格提供配备先进技术的豪华风格车型。尤其像比亚 迪这样的中国电动汽车品牌表现出色，与目前加市场上价格类似或更高价位区间的汽车相比，它们提供 更具竞争力的续航里程、更多的功能和更新的技术"。帕特尔说："从更广泛角度看，提高可负担性也将 助推加政府更容易并更快实现电动汽车普及目标，因为消费者将不再担心阻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and production timelines of solid-state batteries from various companies, highlighting the competitive landscape and technological progress leading up to 2026 and beyond [4]. Group 1: Company Developments - CATL launched the world's first sulfide solid-state battery pilot line in Hefei in May 2025, achieving an energy density of 450Wh/kg, with plans to expand production capacity to 50GWh by 2026 [6]. - Guoxuan High-Tech introduced its "Guan" quasi-solid-state square aluminum shell cell with an energy density greater than 300Wh/kg and initiated a pilot line with a 90% yield rate in May 2025 [8]. - EVE Energy's solid-state battery, "Longquan No. 2," achieved an energy density of 300Wh/kg and is aimed at high-end applications like humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft [8]. - Aoxin Technology plans to launch its polymer solid-state battery with an energy density of 400Wh/kg by the end of 2025, targeting high-end new energy vehicles [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced the mass production of lithium sulfide, completing the last link in the solid-state battery ecosystem, with plans to launch solid-state batteries by the end of 2025 [9]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The solid-state battery industry is expected to enter a critical year in 2026, with many companies racing to achieve mass production [4]. - The article outlines the competitive landscape, with over 30 companies making significant strides in solid-state battery technology, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the sector [4]. - The anticipated commercialization of solid-state batteries is projected for around 2030, as supply chains mature and production processes are refined [6].

BYD may never earn luxury-level margins -- and that's OK.BYD (BYDDY 1.09%) has already won one of the most challenging battles in the automotive industry: scale. It sells more electric vehicles (EVs) than any other automaker in the world, controls a significant portion of its supply chain, and remains profitable despite intense price competition.But for investors, a more challenging question looms: Can BYD ever earn premium margins -- the kind that justify sustained multiple expansion over the long run?The ...

3 国新办将于1月20日15时就发挥积极财政政策 作用,推动经济社会高质量发展有关情况举行新闻 发布会 4 央行发布《金融机构客户受益所有人识别管理 办法》，自2026年1月20日起施行 (5)2026阿里云PolarDB开发者大会将于1月20日 举办 ◎ 6 沃尔玛百货美股将于1月20日取代阿斯利康进入 纳斯达克100指数 ０中国１月一年、五年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR) 将公布 2国新办将于1月20日10时就落实中央经济工作 会议精神,推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况举 行新闻发布会 1 隔夜市场 当地时间1月19日为"马丁·路德·金纪念日"，美股将休市一天，1月20日恢复正常交易。 周一（1月19日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终跌0.88%，道指期货跌0.80%，纳斯达克100股指期货跌1.11%。罗素2000股指期货跌1.01%。 纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.33%，报99.065点。COMEX黄金期货涨1.77%，最终报4676.70美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货涨6.49%，最终94.280美元/盎司。 在岸人民币兑美元夜盘收报6.9640，较上一交易日夜盘收涨80个基点。沪银夜盘收涨5. ...

每经编辑｜胡玲 张喜威 ０中国１月一年、五年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR) 将公布 2国新办将于1月20日10时就落实中央经济工作 会议精神,推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况举 行新闻发布会 3 国新办将于1月20日15时就发挥积极财政政策 作用，推动经济社会高质量发展有关情况举行新闻 发布会 4 央行发布《金融机构客户受益所有人识别管理 办法》，自2026年1月20日起施行 1 隔夜市场 当地时间1月19日为"马丁·路德·金纪念日"，美股将休市一天，1月20日恢复正常交易。 周一（1月19日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终跌0.88%，道指期货跌0.80%，纳斯达克100股指期货跌1.11%。罗素2000股指期货跌1.01%。 纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.33%，报99.065点。COMEX黄金期货涨1.77%，最终报4676.70美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货涨6.49%，最终94.280美元/盎司。 在岸人民币兑美元夜盘收报6.9640，较上一交易日夜盘收涨80个基点。沪银夜盘收涨5.88%，报23565元人民币/千克，继续创收盘历史新高；沪金涨1.35%， 报1053.46元。上期所原油期货250 ...

2026 年 01 月 19 日 车出海、机器人预期强化； 关注业绩确定性自马 -2026/1/12-2026/1/18 汽车周报 《供应链涨价、购置税兜底驱缓，关注通 胀环节投资机会 -- 2026/1/5-2026/1/9 汽车周报》 2026/01/13 《两新补贴正式落地符合预期，看好预期 修复下的交易机会——2025/12/29- 2026/1/4 汽车周报》 2026/01/05 本期投资后了 ● 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险，地缘政治风险，行业复苏不及预期 ● 证券分析师 載文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 若研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 观点：①1 月下旬将进入密集的业绩预告期，市场有望向业绩确定性方向聚焦，建议关 注有望披露业绩预告的继峰股份(扭亏)、福达股份(高增)等,以及业绩确定性的白 马公司。②整车出口欧盟、加拿大的关税政策有望放松，利好出口市场带动批发销量预 期修复，关注比亚迪、上汽、小鹏等。③特斯拉 o ...