GUOSHENG SECURITIES(002670)
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国盛证券熊园:明年A股的配置价值将提升
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-02 22:08
Core Insights - The speech by Dr. Xiong Yuan highlighted the macroeconomic trends in China for 2025, predicting a "high first, low second" growth pattern with a projected GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters and a 4.4% growth in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target of "keeping above 5%" [1][2] - The real estate market is currently in a transitional phase, requiring new drivers and models for economic transformation [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, improving people's livelihoods, and integrating consumption and investment [1] Economic Outlook for 2026 - Six key variables influencing the economic trajectory for 2026 include: resilience of exports, scale of fixed asset investment, consumption scale, PPI and GDP deflator trends, policy implementation pace, and Sino-U.S. trade relations [2] - The policy tone for 2026 is expected to be positive, with predictions of 1-2 instances of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, alongside a fiscal deficit similar to that of 2025 [2] - A-share assets are viewed positively due to economic resilience, policy flexibility, and competitive industries, while the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations with 10-year government bond yields ranging from 1.5% to 1.9% [2] - The economic growth for 2026 is anticipated to remain around 5%, providing ample investment opportunities across various asset classes [2]
国盛证券:AI重塑美国煤炭市场 “黑金”行情有望重燃
智通财经网· 2025-12-02 06:28
美国煤炭需求:电力用煤需求为核心,占90%以上,2025年美国电煤需求预计明显增长 根据EIA预测,2025年美国煤炭消费量预计为4.39亿吨,同比上涨6.7%,此外,美国电厂存煤能力进一 步下滑,2025年底美国燃煤电厂煤炭库存预计将下降至1.07亿短吨水平,低库存叠加爆发性需求增速, 以及持续产量下降的供给刚性,有望带动美国煤炭市场及煤价迎来历史性反转机会。 智通财经APP获悉,国盛证券发布研报,根据EIA预测,2025年美国煤炭消费量预计为4.39亿吨,同比 上涨6.7%,此外,美国电厂存煤能力进一步下滑,2025年底美国燃煤电厂煤炭库存预计将下降至1.07亿 短吨水平,低库存叠加爆发性需求增速,以及持续产量下降的供给刚性,有望带动美国煤炭市场及煤价 迎来历史性反转机会。随着美国国内煤炭消费爆发式增长,美国煤炭出口预计趋缓,全球海运动力煤贸 易或将步入紧平衡格局,建议重点关注具备区位与成本优势的国内煤企。 国盛证券主要观点如下: 美国煤炭供给:煤炭行业投资长期底部,在建产能少,约束供给长期刚性 根据IEA《全球能源投资2025》报告数据,2024年全球煤炭投资增长几乎全由中国和印度贡献,南非和 东南亚也 ...
国盛证券:钙钛矿产业化进展加速 面板企业跨界带来新动能
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 02:00
Core Insights - The Chinese perovskite photovoltaic industry is entering a critical phase of technological scaling, marked by significant breakthroughs since 2025 [1][2] - BOE Technology Group (京东方) is leading the charge in perovskite solar technology, becoming one of the first companies to achieve large-scale production [1][3] Industry Developments - The perovskite photovoltaic industry in China has seen rapid advancements, with the first GW-level perovskite production line launched by GCL-Poly Energy on October 29, 2023 [2] - The year 2025 is projected to be a milestone for the commercialization of GW-level perovskite production lines, with several companies, including GCL-Poly and Xina Solar, set to commence production [2] Company Strategies - BOE has diversified into the perovskite sector as part of its "Screen IoT" strategy, establishing a dedicated subsidiary for perovskite technology development [3] - The company has leveraged its existing capabilities in glass processing and large-scale manufacturing to accelerate the commercialization of perovskite solar cells [3][5] Technological Advancements - Various technological routes, including rigid, flexible, and tandem components, are being developed concurrently, with efficiency breakthroughs reported [4] - Rigid components have achieved a certified efficiency of 27.3%, while flexible components reached 20.11% efficiency [4] - Tandem components have set new records, with experimental line efficiencies reaching 28.42% [4] Production Capacity - BOE has invested 871 million yuan in a 500MW perovskite production line, which is expected to produce 912,500 modules [5] - The production line is set to commence operations in December 2024, positioning BOE as a pioneer in large-scale perovskite production [5]
国盛证券:首予曹操出行(02643)“买入”评级 集团协同的头部科技出行平台
智通财经网· 2025-12-02 01:28
标准化品质出行服务,科技赋能生态重塑 智通财经APP获悉,国盛证券发布研报称,首次覆盖,给予曹操出行(02643)"买入"评级。公司是国内头 部的科技出行平台,深度融合吉利控股集团生态,借定制车协同优势及聚合平台流量优势实现高质量扩 张,科技赋能提质增效,网约车GTV位列行业第二。战略布局自动驾驶业务,是全球稀缺的同时满足 智能定制车、智能驾驶技术及智能运营"三要素的科技出行平台,看好公司长期发展空间。 国盛证券主要观点如下: 中国共享出行领军企业,产业链协同优势显著 曹操出行创立于2015年,是由吉利集团孵化的中国网约车平台,按2024年GTV计算,公司是中国第二 大网约车平台。通过定制车队加强品牌形象,采用与运力伙伴合作的方式快速拓展市场,投资自动驾驶 积极布局下一代出行服务。控股股东在汽车制造、新能源科技、车联网、智能驾驶等领域的全面产业链 布局,与公司的业务发展形成了强大的协同效应,提供了独特的生态优势。1H25公司收入94.56亿元, 同比增长53.50%;毛利率稳步提升,费用持续摊薄;各项经营指标显著提升,网络效应强化。 共享出行赛道空间广阔,格局清晰 出行作为社会运转的基础需求,刚性特征显著,2 ...
国盛证券:首予曹操出行“买入”评级 集团协同的头部科技出行平台
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 01:25
Core Viewpoint - Company is positioned as a leading technology-driven ride-hailing platform in China, leveraging its integration with Geely Holding Group to achieve high-quality expansion and strategic development in autonomous driving [1][4] Group 1: Company Overview - Caocao Travel, founded in 2015 and incubated by Geely Group, is the second-largest ride-hailing platform in China based on projected GTV for 2024 [1] - The company reported revenue of 9.456 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.5%, with a steady increase in gross margin and improved operational metrics [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The Chinese ride-hailing market is projected to reach 8 trillion yuan by 2024, with the shared mobility segment expected to grow from 344.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 800 billion yuan by 2029, at a CAGR of 17% [2] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a dominant player and several strong competitors, with a high concentration in regional markets [2] Group 3: Service and Technology - The company is enhancing its brand image and driver loyalty through standardized ride services and is actively piloting autonomous taxi services in cities like Suzhou and Hangzhou [3] - Four core competitive advantages identified include ecological integration, standardized supply and economic optimization, differentiated brand perception, and technology-driven operational innovation [3] Group 4: Autonomous Driving Market - The global market for autonomous ride-hailing services is expected to reach 359.6 billion dollars by 2035, with favorable conditions for commercialization driven by technological advancements and policy support [4] - The company's collaboration with its parent group is anticipated to create significant competitive barriers and enable it to capitalize on market opportunities [4]
国盛证券:维持申洲国际(02313)“买入”评级 坚定长期主义 龙头优势凸显
智通财经网· 2025-12-01 06:17
Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (02313), highlighting its solid fundamentals and potential for revenue growth as core customer orders normalize, with expectations for the company to enter a phase of supply-demand imbalance and improved profitability by 2026 [1] Customer Trends - Recent improvements in core customer trends, particularly with Nike and Fast Retailing, are expected to drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2025 to 2026 [1] - Nike's inventory in North America has normalized, leading to a positive outlook for order recovery by 2026; Fast Retailing projects a 10.3% revenue growth for FY2026, while Adidas continues to perform well across regions [1] - Other customers are also expected to see healthy order growth, with PUMA currently in a stabilization phase [1] Product Categories - The leisure category is anticipated to grow rapidly in 2025, with significant events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup in 2026 expected to accelerate growth in the sports category, although the proportion of leisure products may decrease compared to 2025 [1] Long-term Asset Investment - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain that is expected to enhance market share [2] - By the end of 2024, the workforce is projected to reach 103,000, a 12% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in 2025 [2] - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which currently account for over 50% of garment production capacity, with plans to enter Indonesia [2] Industry Growth Potential - The demand for functional sportswear is expected to continue growing, providing long-term order support for the company [3] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its superior fabric development capabilities to enhance collaboration with leading sports brands, thereby strengthening competitive advantages [3]
国盛证券:维持申洲国际“买入”评级 坚定长期主义 龙头优势凸显
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 06:16
Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International, highlighting its solid fundamentals and potential for revenue growth driven by the recovery of core customer orders, with expectations for the company to enter a phase of supply-demand imbalance and healthy revenue growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Customer Trends - Recent improvements in core customer trends are expected to drive a CAGR of over 10% for the company's revenue from 2025 to 2026 [1] - Nike's operational situation has improved, with North American inventory returning to normal, leading to a positive outlook for order recovery by 2026 [1] - Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) projects a 10.3% revenue growth for FY2026, while Adidas continues to show strong performance across regions [1] - PUMA is currently in a period of adjustment, with stable short-term orders anticipated, while other customers are expected to see healthy growth in order volume [1] Group 2: Product Categories - The leisure category is projected to grow rapidly in 2025, with expectations for increased order growth in the sports category in 2026 due to events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup [1] - The proportion of leisure products is expected to decrease compared to 2025 [1] Group 3: Long-term Asset Investment - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain and potential market share growth [2] - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have 103,000 employees, a 12% year-on-year increase, with further growth anticipated in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, with Vietnam and Cambodia accounting for over 50% of garment production capacity, and plans to enter the Indonesian market [2] Group 4: Industry Growth Potential - The demand for functional apparel is strong, with the company positioned to benefit from the growth of the sports category [2] - The company’s core customers include leading sports brands, and it is expected to capitalize on the increasing penetration rates in both global and Chinese markets [2] - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage through superior fabric development capabilities and collaborative product creation with clients [2]
国盛证券:宏观与供需平衡共振 铜板块牛市有望加速
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 01:49
2025年,商品价格普遍受中美关退过山车式扰动,伴随吉隆会谈美国将对华24%关退暂停一年,关斗而 不破"成为新常态。展望2026年,美国中期选举在即,中国迎来关十五五"开局之年,是2006年以来两国 关键年份再度重合的一年。在此情形下,2026年美国对外关退政策或保持相对克制,中美可能迎来关关 退坡+财货双松"共振,一方面铜价波动率或将低于今年,另一方面铜价牛市有望加速。节奏上2026H1 有望迎来再通胀交易:在历次软着陆降息后,铜价与美国制造业PMI通常3-6个月企稳回升,本轮9月18 日降息算起,基本面复苏对应明年一二季度。此外,在短期宏观偏逆风背景下,铜价之所以维持10500 美金以上偏强震荡,价格韧性强于以往降息后表现,核心支撑在于供给,因此该行认为,未来经济基本 面好转后,铜价或迎来超越过往的价格弹性表现。 供给端:供给矛盾在2026年依然存在,CAPEX回升需要更高铜价激励 该行认为供给扰动的集中发生也并非简单的关黑天鹅"事件,而是中长期资本开支不足的必然结果。根 据Bloomberg,2024年69家铜矿企业资本开支为923亿美元,仅为上一轮2013年周期高潮的73%,考虑通 胀因素后这一数字进 ...
国盛证券股份有限公司2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-27 19:18
Core Points - The company held its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025, with no new, changed, or rejected proposals [1][2] - The meeting was conducted both in-person and via online voting, with a total of 740 participants representing 1,096,003,617 shares, accounting for 56.6385% of the total voting shares [8][9] Meeting Details - The meeting took place on November 27, 2025, at 14:30, with specific times for online voting [3] - The location for the in-person meeting was the 16th floor of the Beijing Bank building in Nanchang [4] - The meeting was chaired by the company's chairman, Liu Chaodong, and complied with relevant laws and regulations [7] Proposal Voting Results - The first proposal to borrow subordinate debt from the controlling shareholder was approved, with a total amount of RMB 1.5 billion, a five-year term, and an interest rate of 3.5% [10][11] - The second proposal to borrow subordinate debt from Shanghai Jiarong Investment Management Co., Ltd. was also approved, with a maximum amount of RMB 500 million and similar terms [14][15] - The proposal to amend the company's articles of association was passed with 99.9538% approval from the voting shares [18] Legal Opinions - The legal opinion provided by King & Wood Mallesons confirmed that the meeting's procedures and voting results were in compliance with applicable laws and regulations [19] Documentation - The company will keep records of the meeting resolutions, legal opinions, and other required documents as per regulatory requirements [20]
国盛证券(002670) - 国盛证券股份有限公司章程(2025年11月)
2025-11-27 11:02
国盛证券股份有限公司 章程 | | | 国盛证券股份有限公司 章程 第一章 总 则 第一条 为维护国盛证券股份有限公司(以下简称公司)、 股东、职工和债权人的合法权益,规范公司的组织和行为, 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称《公司法》)、 《中华人民共和国证券法》(以下简称《证券法》)、《关 于在深化国有企业改革中坚持党的领导加强党的建设的若 干意见》《证券公司治理准则》《上市公司章程指引》《上 市公司治理准则》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》及其他 有关规定,制定本章程。 2025 年 11 月 | | | | 第一章 总 则 1 | | --- | | 第二章 经营宗旨和范围 | | 第三章 股 · | | 股份发行 第一节 | | 第二节 股份增减和回购 ………………………………………7 | | 第三节 股份转让 … | | 第四章 股东和股东会 ……………………………………… 10 | | 第一节 股东 …………………………………………………10 | | 股东会的一般规定 ………………………………… 19 第二节 | | 第三节 股东会的召集 ………………………………… 22 | | 第四节 股东 ...