上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 09 日 利民股份 (002734) ——重点产品价格持续上行，25Q1 业绩超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.17 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 11.97/6.09 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 3.13 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3,644 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,145.55/9,424.68 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.77 | | 资产负债率% | 60.02 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 368/326 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-08 05-08 06-08 07-08 08-08 09-08 10-08 11-08 12-08 01-08 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the price increases of its main products, such as Abamectin and Methyl Acetate, leading to a significant improvement in Q1 performance, with a forecasted net profit of 100-120 million yuan, a substantial turnaround year-on-year, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 231.59%-297.90% [6][7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 81 million (+0.01 million), 409 million (+2.07 million), and 506 million (+2.64 million) yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22 (+0.00), 1.11 (+0.56), and 1.38 (+0.72) yuan, indicating a favorable outlook [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 5,016 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 4,524 million yuan for 2024, and 4,997 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.8% in 2024 to 23.6% in 2025, and the net profit margin is projected to rise from 1.8% in 2024 to 8.2% in 2025 [9][12] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to 13.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [9][12] Product Price Trends - The average price of Abamectin in Q1 2025 was 478,400 yuan/ton, up 33.09% year-on-year, and Methyl Acetate was 661,700 yuan/ton, up 30.67% year-on-year, contributing to the company's strong performance [7] - The price of another key product, Bactericide, increased by 52.78% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the company holding a 34% stake in Xinhe Chemical, which provides additional capacity [7][8] Market Outlook - The market for Bactericide is expected to remain tight, with prices continuing to rise due to strong export demand influenced by agricultural diseases [8] - The company anticipates a market demand growth of 8%-10% for Abamectin and Methyl Acetate over the next 2-3 years, with prices expected to remain stable or increase [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, driven by a recovery in market conditions and increased sales profits, with a projected net profit for Guangsheng Nonferrous of 40 to 50 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year [3] - The agricultural chemicals sector is also showing signs of recovery, with Limin Co. forecasting a net profit of 100 to 120 million yuan in Q1 2025, a substantial increase from a loss of 8.49 million yuan in the same period last year, attributed to rising product prices and a favorable market environment [3] - Tiande Yu expects a revenue increase of 60.52% year-on-year, with net profit reaching approximately 70.57 million yuan in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of new products and markets, particularly in display driver chips and electronic price tag chips [4] Industry Analysis - The home appliance export sector faces significant challenges due to the recent implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff and additional tariffs that could raise the average tariff rate to around 80% for Chinese white goods exported to the U.S., creating a substantial impact on trade dynamics [6][7] - Companies with diversified production capacities and lower exposure to the U.S. market, such as TCL and Hisense, are better positioned to withstand tariff pressures due to localized production strategies [7] - Smaller enterprises that rely heavily on exports to the U.S. and lack overseas operations are likely to face severe cost pressures and may struggle to remain competitive, potentially leading to reduced orders and financial difficulties [8]

【隔夜行情】 中国瑞林，证券代码603257，发行价格20.52元/股，发行市盈率18.17倍；公司是一家专业工程技术企 业,主要为境内外有色金属采矿、选矿、冶炼、加工产业链客户提供包括设计咨询、工程总承包、装备 集成等在内的工程技术服务,同时业务还延伸到环保、民用建筑、市政等领域。 新股申购： •周一（2025年4月7日），A股三大指数集体重挫，截至收盘，上证指数收跌7.34%，深证成指收跌 9.66%，创业板指收跌12.5%；北证50收跌17.95%。两市成交额约15877.99亿元，较前一个交易日放量约 4501.79亿元。全市场106只股票上涨、5284只股票下跌。 宏工科技，创业板证券代码301662，发行价格26.6元/股，发行市盈率7.05倍；公司是一家专注于物料处 理自动化的国家高新技术企业,为客户提供成套工程设计与交付、核心设备与配件、自动控制软件及技 术服务；具备完善的科研、设计、生产、销售、项目交付与软件开发服务体系,广泛服务于电池匀浆、 电池材料、精细化工、食品医药、橡胶塑料等行业。 •周一（2025年4月7日），港股三大指数集体暴跌，恒指狂泄逾3000点创下最大点数跌幅，并失守两万 ...

Group 1: Stock Suspension and Resumption - Beizhi Technology plans to acquire 100% of Suzhou Suike Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., resulting in stock suspension [1] - Taihao Technology intends to issue shares to purchase 27.46% equity of Taihao Military Industry, leading to stock resumption. This acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's industrial layout in the military equipment sector [1] Group 2: Share Buyback - Wanhua Chemical's chairman proposed a share buyback plan ranging from 300 million to 500 million yuan [2] Group 3: Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - Guotai Junan has changed its A-share stock name to Guotai Haitong starting April 11 and has been approved to publicly issue company bonds not exceeding 60 billion yuan to professional investors [3] - Lizhong Group stated that the adjustment of U.S. tariffs will not significantly impact its production and operations [3] - Haoyang Co., Ltd. plans to invest no less than 603 million yuan in the construction of an entertainment equipment industrial base project [4] - Runjian Co., Ltd. is a candidate for the procurement project of comprehensive maintenance for Guangdong Unicom's 5G services, with a total bid scale of 179 million yuan [4] - Samsung Medical's wholly-owned subsidiary, Aix Smart Technology, won a transformer procurement framework project in Hungary, with a total contract amount of 23,840,958.10 euros, approximately 190 million yuan [4] - Nandu Property plans to increase its investment in Hangzhou Yunxiang Robot by 15 million yuan [5] Group 4: Performance Changes - Xiaogoods City reported a net profit of 803 million yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 12.66%, mainly due to a 97 million yuan increase in gross profit from market operations and new businesses [6] - Kidswant expects a Q1 net profit between 29.1471 million and 38.4742 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150%-230%, driven by store upgrades, supply chain optimization, and AI development [6] - China CNR anticipates a Q1 net profit between 2.822 billion and 3.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%-220%, due to increased product sales [6] - Yonghe Co., Ltd. expects a Q1 net profit between 91 million and 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.49% to 176.74%, attributed to strong demand for refrigerants and fluoropolymer materials [6] - Yinglian Co., Ltd. forecasts a Q1 net profit between 7.5 million and 11 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 459.28%-720.28%, due to market expansion and improved gross margins [6] - Limin Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit of 100 million to 120 million yuan in Q1 2025, turning a profit due to rising prices and increased sales of its main products [7] - China Aluminum anticipates a Q1 net profit between 3.4 billion and 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63%, driven by increased production of major products [8] - Shandong Steel expects a total profit of approximately 15.3 million yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit of around -1.45 million yuan, significantly reducing losses [8] - COSCO Shipping Holdings expects a Q1 net profit of 11.689 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 73.04% year-on-year [8] - Tiande Yu expects a Q1 net profit of 70.5681 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.96%, driven by new product and market development [8] - Jinaobo expects a Q1 net profit between 33 million and 40 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.18% to 176.59%, due to significant revenue growth in specialized equipment [8]

Financial Performance Expectations - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million to 120 million CNY for Q1 2025, compared to a loss of 8.4917 million CNY in the same period last year, representing a growth of 1277.62% to 1513.14%[2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 87 million to 108 million CNY, compared to a loss of 9.8195 million CNY in the previous year, indicating a growth of 985.99% to 1199.85%[2] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 0.28 CNY to 0.34 CNY, a significant improvement from a loss of 0.02 CNY per share in the same period last year[2] Factors Influencing Profit Growth - The increase in profit is attributed to the rise in prices and sales volume of the company's main products during the reporting period[4] Earnings Forecast and Audit Status - The earnings forecast has not been audited by a registered accountant, and the specific financial data will be confirmed in the company's Q1 2025 report[3][5]

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for 2024 reached ¥4,237,402,851.27, a slight increase of 0.32% compared to ¥4,223,936,964.12 in the previous year[4] - Operating profit surged to ¥113,609,323.63, marking a significant increase of 76.71% from ¥64,290,894.53 year-on-year[4] - Total profit rose to ¥115,188,746.23, reflecting a growth of 79.07% compared to ¥64,327,819.69 in the previous year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.11% to ¥81,357,608.85 from ¥62,051,829.92 year-on-year[4] - Basic earnings per share improved by 35.29% to ¥0.23, up from ¥0.17 in the previous year[4] - The weighted average return on net assets increased to 3.01%, up from 2.23% in the previous year[4] Assets and Equity - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥6,660,284,764.42, a decrease of 2.28% from ¥6,815,334,746.25 at the beginning of the period[4] - Equity attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.71% to ¥2,642,805,549.03 from ¥2,773,342,822.67[4] Performance Consistency - The company reported no discrepancies between the current performance and the previously estimated performance for the first three quarters of 2024[7] Profit Drivers - The increase in profit was driven by rising prices and increased sales of the company's main products[6]

2025年第一季度，利民股份的可转债转股情况如下：利民股份公开发行面值总额为人民币 980,000,000.00元的可转换公司债券，每张面值为人民币100元，债券期限为6年。第一季度，"利民转 债"因转股减少金额为95,155,700元，减少数量为951,557张；转股数量为11,395,570股，其中优先使用回 购库存股转股数量为9,837,590股，新增股份转股数量为1,557,980股。截至第一季度末，剩余可转债金额 为884,094,400元，剩余可转债数量为8,840,944张。公司2025年第一季度股份变动情况为：限售条件流通 股减少4,950股，无限售条件流通股增加1,562,930股，股份总数增加1,557,980股。转股价格为人民币8.35 元/股，转股期限为2021年9月6日至2027年2月28日。投资者如有疑问，请拨打公司董事会办公室投资者 咨询电话0516-88984525进行咨询。利民控股集团股份有限公司董事会于2025年04月01日发布此公告。 截至2025年3月28日收盘，利民股份（002734）报收于10.8元，较上周的9.83元上涨9.87%。本周，利民 股份3月27日盘中最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the conversion of the company's convertible bonds and the resulting changes in share capital, highlighting the bond's issuance, conversion price adjustments, and the impact on the company's share structure [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The company issued convertible bonds totaling RMB 980 million, with a face value of RMB 100 per bond, and a maturity of 6 years [1][2] - The bonds were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and began trading on March 24, 2021 [2] Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at RMB 14.23 per share, which was later adjusted to RMB 13.98 per share on June 2, 2021, following a profit distribution [2] - Subsequent adjustments were made, reducing the conversion price to RMB 11.20 per share on May 24, 2022, and further to RMB 10.95 per share on June 16, 2023 [3][4] - The latest adjustment set the conversion price at RMB 10.75 per share, effective from June 12, 2024, and was further reduced to RMB 8.50 per share on July 19, 2024 [5][6] Group 3: Share Capital Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total amount of convertible bonds reduced was RMB 95.16 million, leaving a remaining bond amount of RMB 884.09 million [6] - The company's share capital structure showed a decrease in restricted shares and an increase in unrestricted shares, with total shares increasing from 366,870,475 to 368,428,455 [6]

| 股票代码：002734 | 股票简称：利民股份 | 公告编号：2025-019 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128144 | 债券简称：利民转债 | | 利民控股集团股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一季度可转债转股情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： | 证券代码：002734 | 证券简称：利民股份 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128144 | 债券简称：利民转债 | | 转股价格：人民币 8.35 元/股 | | 转股期限：2021 年 9 月 6 日至 2027 年 2 月 28 日 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所可转换公司债券业务 实施细则》的有关规定，利民控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年第一季度可转换公司债券（以下简称"可转债"）转股及公司股份变动的情况公 告如下： 一、可转换公司债券上市发行概况 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准利民控股集团股份有限公司公开发行可 转换公司债券的批复》（证监许可［2020］3390 ...